上周，央行呵护提升债市再宽松预期，银行间资金面整体维持宽松态势。此外，监管对股市降温的态度明显，债市受此影响迎来 一波修复性行情，尤其是短端的确定性更高。 但就基金表现来看，中长期纯债基金整体业绩依然好于短债基金。业内建议，杠杆套息策略或是更优选择。 债市迎来修复性行情 中长债基金业绩好于短债产品 上周（1月19日至25日），央行在调降结构性货币政策工具利率的同时，不断释放货币仍有一定空间的宽松预期。资金面来看，央 行公开市场进行11810亿逆回购操作，到期9515亿元，全周净投放2295亿元，且MLF投放9000亿元，本月超额续作7000亿元。 | 建信利率债A | 0.957 | 广发昭利中短债A | 0.13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 格林30天滚动持有A | 0.883 | 甲万菱信稳鑫30天滚动A | 0.13 | | 二级债基 | | 传统货基 | | | 证券简称 | 周收益率% | 证券简称 | 周收益率% | | 工银添慧A | 4.526 | 长安货币A | 0.033 | | 光大添益A | 3.469 | 红土创新货币A | 0.029 | | 泰康丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and management strategies of the AI Fund, specifically the China Europe Rui Da 6-Month Holding Mixed A Fund, which has shown modest growth in a challenging market environment [4][5]. Fund Performance - The fund reported a profit of 371,800 yuan in the fourth quarter, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0144 yuan [4]. - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 0.85%, with a total fund size of 43.73 million yuan as of the end of the fourth quarter [4][15]. - As of January 21, the unit net value was 1.739 yuan, with a near-term performance of 2.00% over three months, 2.75% over six months, 4.82% over one year, and 12.29% over three years, ranking 329/630, 449/630, 487/630, and 263/570 respectively among comparable funds [5]. Market Analysis - The fund manager noted a transition in the bond market from "emotional recovery" to "prudent pricing" during the fourth quarter, influenced by a retreat in the equity market and a subsequent easing of redemption pressures on bond funds [4]. - The report indicates that the market experienced a brief recovery due to ample liquidity and a cleared trading structure, although concerns about future fiscal policies and supply-demand imbalances for long-term bonds led to a notable decline in long-end yields by year-end [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund's strategy involved reallocating some long-duration interest rate bonds to short-duration credit bonds to reduce duration while enhancing static returns [5]. - The fund maintained a flexible approach to managing convertible bond positions, participating in the market with a low overall position while anchoring around valuation centers [5]. Risk Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was 0.9492, ranking 114/541 among comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over three years was 2.41%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown recorded at 4.09% in the first quarter of 2021 [11]. Portfolio Composition - The average stock allocation over the past three years was 7.07%, significantly lower than the comparable average of 19.23%, with a peak allocation of 36.4% at the end of 2021 and a low of 5% at the end of 2025 [14]. - As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included companies such as Taisheng Wind Power, Tonghua Dongbao, and Chengzhi Co., among others [17].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights Honghe Precision (300539) as a rising star in the drone industry, with a strategic business layout focusing on three key areas: smart home appliances, new energy vehicles, and drones/robots [4][5] - The company is recognized as a quality precision manufacturing enterprise, with stable growth in smart home appliances and high growth potential in new energy vehicles and drones [4] Group 2: Business Expansion - The drone business is expected to benefit from a global and full industry chain layout, allowing the company to quickly enter the low-altitude economy and mitigate geopolitical risks [4] - Key developments include a 30% stake in Ningbo Lion King to expand into unmanned aerial vehicles, increasing to a 53% controlling stake, and a 40% stake in a joint venture in Singapore for industrial-grade drones [4] - The company plans to invest 5 million yuan to increase its stake in Heqi Intelligent, which focuses on drone and core module product development and sales [4] Group 3: Robotics Business - The robotics segment shows high product and customer reusability, with potential extensions into the robotics field based on existing manufacturing capabilities [5] - The company has established a stable customer base with notable clients such as Xiaomi, Huawei, SAIC, Geely, and BYD, which may facilitate its expansion into robotics [5] Group 4: Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 64 million yuan, 102 million yuan, and 146 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 68%, 59%, and 43%, respectively, with a CAGR of 57% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - IRS reflects the market's expectation of the future capital cost center, but past experience has proven that the expectation reflected by IRS is not always correct [1][2][10] - Recently, the appreciation of the RMB is the main reason for the increasing expectation of capital easing and the continuous decline of IRS. The leveraged carry trade strategy is still effective, but in the medium - term, it is still maintained that "this round of RMB appreciation is beneficial to the inter - bank liquidity, but the magnitude should not be overestimated" [1][3][13] Summary by Directory 1 IRS's Expectation of the Capital Market: Neither Completely Believe Nor Completely Disbelieve - IRS reflects the market's expectation of the future capital cost center. Taking FR007IRS1 - year as an example, it uses a fixed cost to avoid the uncertainty of FR007 fluctuations in the next year, and this fixed cost is the expected value of the average FR007 in the next year [2][10] - Past experience shows that the capital expectation reflected by IRS is not always correct. For example, after the Politburo meeting in December 2024 and the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024, the market's expectation of the central bank's monetary policy easing in 2025 rapidly increased, and FR007S1Y deviated significantly downward from FR007. But after July 2025, FR007S1Y began to be slightly higher than FR007 for a long time [2][11] 2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (12/22 - 12/26), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 348 billion yuan. As of December 26, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 622.7 billion yuan, indicating a relatively loose capital situation [14] - Medium - term liquidity: In December, the due amount of outright reverse repurchases was 1.4 trillion yuan, and the MLF due was 300 billion yuan. The central bank continued to make net investments in MLF and outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of 30 billion yuan [15] - Long - term liquidity: Since the net investment amount of medium - term liquidity tools in December was at a relatively low level since August 2025, there are higher expectations for the amount of treasury bond trading in December [16] 2.2 Institutions' Financing and Lending Situations - Fund supply: On December 26, the net lending of large - scale banks was about 3.9 trillion yuan (flow concept), a decrease of about 258 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 136.2 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending balance of money market funds was 800 billion yuan, a decrease of about 74 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 416.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 180.1 billion yuan compared with December 19 [19] - Fund demand: On December 26, the balance of repurchase - to - be - bought bonds in the inter - bank market was about 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan compared with December 19. The leverage ratios of the whole market and non - legal person products increased [26] 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repo market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume of the inter - bank pledged repo was about 8.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 19. The median of R001 was 1.36%, unchanged from last week. Due to the impact of new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the financing friction in the exchange increased [29] - Capital sentiment index: The overall capital situation was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was around 50 most of the time [32] 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The median of the 1 - year FR007IRS this week was 1.49%, a decrease of 4.2bp compared with last week, and the interest rate was in the bottom 3% since 2020 [39] 3 Government Bonds 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 366.7 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds being 374.1 billion yuan and the net repayment of local government bonds being 7.4 billion yuan. In the next week, only 26 billion yuan of local government bonds will be issued on December 29 [40] 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of December 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.6%, an increase of 2.7% in the past week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 90.2 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds has been completed [42] 4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 4.1 Absolute Yield - On December 26, SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.26%, 1.45%, 1.58%, 1.6%, 1.63%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The maturity yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks in the ChinaBond were 1.62%, 1.6%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively. Except for the 6 - month term, which increased by 1bp compared with December 19, the quotes of other terms remained unchanged [46] 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - In the past week (December 22 - 26), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 560.29 billion yuan, an increase of 435.5 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 19. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year were 17%, 17%, 23%, 10%, and 33% respectively [49] 4.3 Relative Valuation - On December 26, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity yield and R007 was 11bp, in the 28% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond maturity yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 20bp, in the 51% quantile since 2020 [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent bond fund durations have increased. On November 7, the median duration (including leverage) of medium - and long - term bond funds rose by 0.14 years compared to November 3 [5][10]. - From a seasonal perspective, historical data shows that interest rates tend to decline from November to December. Current conditions are favorable for going long on the bond market, but the odds may be limited [5][10]. - Investors should pay attention to the issuance scale of the 30 - year ordinary treasury bonds to be issued in November and December. If the scale is around 300 billion yuan, the bond may not strengthen significantly; if it is around 700 billion yuan, it may strengthen [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - Bond fund durations have increased. Funds have increased their purchases of credit bonds, bought 30 - year treasury bonds, sold 10 - year treasury bonds, and increased their allocations of 10 - year policy financial bonds and 20 - and 30 - year local government bonds. Big banks continue to buy short - term bonds, and securities firms have slightly net - sold [5][10]. - Conditions are favorable for going long on the bond market, but the odds may be limited. Attention should be paid to the issuance scale of 30 - year ordinary treasury bonds [5][10][11]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking 3.2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.53bp to 1.40%, the 10 - year rose 1.98bp to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2.05bp to 2.16%. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread rose 0.07bp to 34.39bp, and the 10 - year CDB - 10 - year treasury bond spread rose 1.11bp to 13.47bp [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the 3 - year - 1 - year treasury bond spread rose 0.85bp to 4.04bp, the 5 - year - 3 - year spread fell 1.33bp to 14.24bp, the 7 - year - 5 - year spread rose 2.14bp to 12.65bp, the 10 - year - 7 - year spread fell 1.21bp to 10.04bp, the 20 - year - 10 - year spread rose 0.48bp to 33.42bp, and the 30 - year - 20 - year spread fell 0.41bp to 0.97bp [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.3.1 Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the inter - bank pledged repurchase balance decreased by 0.48 trillion yuan to 11.61 trillion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 106.99% [18]. 3.3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From November 3 to November 7, the average pledged repurchase turnover was 7.97 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover was about 7.14 trillion yuan, with an average overnight turnover ratio of 89.59% [22][23]. 3.3.4 Inter - bank Funding Operation - From November 3 to November 7, bank fund lending and single - day fund supply first increased and then decreased. As of November 7, the net fund lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.44 trillion yuan, and the single - day fund supply was 3.90 trillion yuan. Regarding funding rates, DR001 was 1.3321%, DR007 was 1.4130%, R001 was 1.3916%, and R007 was 1.4677% [24][27]. 3.4 Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Durations 3.4.1 Median Bond Fund Duration - As of November 7, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.72 years (de - leveraged), up 0.05 years from November 3; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.87 years, up 0.14 years [39]. 3.4.2 Median Interest - Rate Bond Fund Duration - As of November 7, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.83 years, up 0.10 years from November 3; the median duration (de - leveraged) was 3.34 years, up 0.04 years. The median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.62 years, up 0.10 years, and (de - leveraged) was 2.53 years, up 0.07 years [43]. 3.5 Bond Lending Balance Changes - As of November 6, compared with November 3, the borrowing volume of 10 - year CDB bonds fluctuated [46].

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment and increased volatility in the bond market have led to a growing interest in fixed income enhancement products, with strategies such as leveraged carry becoming more prominent [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, contrasting with last year's upward trend, leading to a negative holding experience for many investors [2]. - The rise in risk appetite, particularly since the second half of the year, has pressured the bond market, resulting in notable adjustments [2]. - Despite the challenges, the fundamental support for the bond market remains, with monetary policy still moderately accommodative [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The leveraged carry strategy is gaining traction as the advantages become more apparent, particularly in the context of mid to short-term instruments [2]. - Long-term instruments, while lacking trend opportunities, still hold value for range trading, allowing investors to capitalize on current volatility [3]. Group 3: Fixed Income Enhancement Products - The demand for fixed income enhancement products is rising as traditional pure bond assets struggle to meet investors' needs for stable returns [4]. - Various innovative and diversified methods for enhancing returns are being explored, including commodities, quantitative strategies, and index tools [4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive fixed income enhancement investment system that includes strategies across different volatility levels, utilizing convertible bonds, stocks, and quantitative methods [4][5]. Group 4: Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds have gained attention this year, despite their average prices and conversion premiums reaching recent highs, as their adjustments are primarily driven by structural divergences in the equity market [4]. - A new product managed by the company, focusing on a low-volatility fixed income enhancement strategy, is currently being issued, which combines fixed income with convertible bonds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment and increased volatility in the bond market have led to a growing interest in fixed income enhancement products, with strategies such as leveraged carry becoming more prominent [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, contrasting with last year's upward trend, leading to a negative holding experience for many investors [2]. - The rise in risk appetite, driven by "anti-involution" policies, has resulted in a notable pullback in the bond market, although the fundamental support for bonds remains intact [2][4]. - The lack of trend opportunities in the bond market has increased investment difficulty, prompting a defensive investment approach focused on controlling drawdowns [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Leveraged carry strategies are becoming increasingly advantageous as the negative carry issue for mid-to-short duration bonds is alleviated, providing stability in the absence of capital gains [2]. - Long-duration bonds, while lacking trend opportunities, still hold value for range trading, allowing investors to capitalize on current volatility [3]. - Fixed income enhancement products are gaining traction as they combine traditional bond assets with equities and convertible bonds to meet investor demand for stable returns [4]. Group 3: Product Development - The company has developed a comprehensive fixed income enhancement investment system that includes strategies across low, medium, and high volatility, utilizing various methods such as convertible bonds and quantitative approaches [4]. - A new product, managed by the investment director, is being launched that employs a low-volatility fixed income enhancement strategy, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and a small allocation to convertible bonds for yield enhancement [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment and increased volatility in the bond market have led to a growing interest in fixed income enhancement products, with strategies involving stocks, convertible bonds, and quantitative methods being developed to create a comprehensive investment system [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments this year, with a lack of trend-based opportunities and increased volatility impacting investor experiences [1][2]. - The rise in risk appetite has put pressure on the bond market, but the fundamental support for bonds remains, with monetary policy still moderately accommodative [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The advantages of leveraged carry strategies are becoming more apparent, particularly as the negative carry issue for mid-to-short duration bonds has eased [2][3]. - The focus is shifting towards defensive strategies that control drawdowns, with an emphasis on capturing trading opportunities in a volatile environment [2][3]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Enhanced Products - There is a growing market for fixed income enhancement products that combine traditional bonds with equities and convertible bonds to meet investor demand for stable returns [3]. - The average price and conversion premium of convertible bonds have reached high levels, but current adjustments are seen as opportunities for allocation [3]. - A new product managed by the company, which combines fixed income with convertible bonds, is being launched, focusing on high-quality credit bonds while selectively engaging in long-duration bond trading [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market currently has significant differences, and breaking through the current trading range requires the formation of a new consensus, which is expected to gradually take shape in the next month [2][7]. - The economic data in August further weakened, and if the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the possibility of the central bank restarting bond purchases or even reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates cannot be ruled out [2]. - Although the bond market is currently sensitive to negative factors, the probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [2][3]. - The central bank is likely to maintain the stability of cross - quarter funds, and the adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [2][3][47]. - During the period of waiting for market consensus to form, it is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest rates need the market to reach a new consensus on the central bank's adjustment driven by the weakening fundamentals for further decline - In August, the economic data further weakened. The industrial added - value dropped to a new low of 5.2% for the year, and the 25Q3 GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 5% or lower [2][10]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in August dropped to 3.4%. After September, the base increase may further magnify the pressure, and the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment accelerated its decline, with all three sub - items weakening comprehensively [2][13][15]. - In August, the real - estate - related growth rates also declined across the board. Although the economic entered the peak season in September, the improvement of production activities was not significantly better than the seasonal average, and the export volume may face pressure in Q4 [2][18][19]. - Since Q3, the relationship between the bond market and the fundamentals has weakened. If the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the central bank may restart bond purchases or even reduce the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market needs time to reach a consensus on this [2][26]. 2. Under the central bank's stable attitude, the bank's liability pressure is limited. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices - In August, the excess reserve ratio was 1.1%, lower than expected, mainly due to the unexpected significant increase in government deposits, which may be affected by the slowdown of general public budget expenditures and the slow progress of replacement bond use [2][26][29]. - The central bank's tool issuance in recent months has been more inclined to large - scale banks. Small and medium - sized banks have continued to net repay inter - bank certificates of deposit, indicating that their motivation to expand assets through inter - bank business has weakened, and their liability pressure may be relatively lower [2][36]. - Last week, the funds tightened marginally under multiple exogenous disturbances, but on Friday, the funds became looser marginally. The average values of DR001 and DR007 since September are roughly the same as those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [2][3][40]. - The central bank's adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to fixed - quantity, interest - rate bidding, and multiple - price winning may achieve the effect of interest - rate cuts in essence, showing the intention to support cross - quarter funds and being conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [47]. 3. Emphasize the leveraged interest - rate - arbitrage strategy in the short term and wait for clearer signals for long - end bonds - The probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [3][49]. - Although the probability of the central bank's bond purchases, reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and interest - rate cuts in the future increases, the timing of market consensus formation is uncertain, and it is difficult to grasp the right - side entry rhythm [3][50]. - The central bank's liquidity easing has the highest certainty. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3][50][51].