1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent bond fund durations have increased. On November 7, the median duration (including leverage) of medium - and long - term bond funds rose by 0.14 years compared to November 3 [5][10]. - From a seasonal perspective, historical data shows that interest rates tend to decline from November to December. Current conditions are favorable for going long on the bond market, but the odds may be limited [5][10]. - Investors should pay attention to the issuance scale of the 30 - year ordinary treasury bonds to be issued in November and December. If the scale is around 300 billion yuan, the bond may not strengthen significantly; if it is around 700 billion yuan, it may strengthen [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - Bond fund durations have increased. Funds have increased their purchases of credit bonds, bought 30 - year treasury bonds, sold 10 - year treasury bonds, and increased their allocations of 10 - year policy financial bonds and 20 - and 30 - year local government bonds. Big banks continue to buy short - term bonds, and securities firms have slightly net - sold [5][10]. - Conditions are favorable for going long on the bond market, but the odds may be limited. Attention should be paid to the issuance scale of 30 - year ordinary treasury bonds [5][10][11]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking 3.2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.53bp to 1.40%, the 10 - year rose 1.98bp to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2.05bp to 2.16%. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread rose 0.07bp to 34.39bp, and the 10 - year CDB - 10 - year treasury bond spread rose 1.11bp to 13.47bp [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the 3 - year - 1 - year treasury bond spread rose 0.85bp to 4.04bp, the 5 - year - 3 - year spread fell 1.33bp to 14.24bp, the 7 - year - 5 - year spread rose 2.14bp to 12.65bp, the 10 - year - 7 - year spread fell 1.21bp to 10.04bp, the 20 - year - 10 - year spread rose 0.48bp to 33.42bp, and the 30 - year - 20 - year spread fell 0.41bp to 0.97bp [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.3.1 Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the inter - bank pledged repurchase balance decreased by 0.48 trillion yuan to 11.61 trillion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 106.99% [18]. 3.3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From November 3 to November 7, the average pledged repurchase turnover was 7.97 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover was about 7.14 trillion yuan, with an average overnight turnover ratio of 89.59% [22][23]. 3.3.4 Inter - bank Funding Operation - From November 3 to November 7, bank fund lending and single - day fund supply first increased and then decreased. As of November 7, the net fund lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.44 trillion yuan, and the single - day fund supply was 3.90 trillion yuan. Regarding funding rates, DR001 was 1.3321%, DR007 was 1.4130%, R001 was 1.3916%, and R007 was 1.4677% [24][27]. 3.4 Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Durations 3.4.1 Median Bond Fund Duration - As of November 7, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.72 years (de - leveraged), up 0.05 years from November 3; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.87 years, up 0.14 years [39]. 3.4.2 Median Interest - Rate Bond Fund Duration - As of November 7, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.83 years, up 0.10 years from November 3; the median duration (de - leveraged) was 3.34 years, up 0.04 years. The median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.62 years, up 0.10 years, and (de - leveraged) was 2.53 years, up 0.07 years [43]. 3.5 Bond Lending Balance Changes - As of November 6, compared with November 3, the borrowing volume of 10 - year CDB bonds fluctuated [46].

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment and increased volatility in the bond market have led to a growing interest in fixed income enhancement products, with strategies such as leveraged carry becoming more prominent [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, contrasting with last year's upward trend, leading to a negative holding experience for many investors [2]. - The rise in risk appetite, particularly since the second half of the year, has pressured the bond market, resulting in notable adjustments [2]. - Despite the challenges, the fundamental support for the bond market remains, with monetary policy still moderately accommodative [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The leveraged carry strategy is gaining traction as the advantages become more apparent, particularly in the context of mid to short-term instruments [2]. - Long-term instruments, while lacking trend opportunities, still hold value for range trading, allowing investors to capitalize on current volatility [3]. Group 3: Fixed Income Enhancement Products - The demand for fixed income enhancement products is rising as traditional pure bond assets struggle to meet investors' needs for stable returns [4]. - Various innovative and diversified methods for enhancing returns are being explored, including commodities, quantitative strategies, and index tools [4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive fixed income enhancement investment system that includes strategies across different volatility levels, utilizing convertible bonds, stocks, and quantitative methods [4][5]. Group 4: Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds have gained attention this year, despite their average prices and conversion premiums reaching recent highs, as their adjustments are primarily driven by structural divergences in the equity market [4]. - A new product managed by the company, focusing on a low-volatility fixed income enhancement strategy, is currently being issued, which combines fixed income with convertible bonds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment and increased volatility in the bond market have led to a growing interest in fixed income enhancement products, with strategies such as leveraged carry becoming more prominent [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, contrasting with last year's upward trend, leading to a negative holding experience for many investors [2]. - The rise in risk appetite, driven by "anti-involution" policies, has resulted in a notable pullback in the bond market, although the fundamental support for bonds remains intact [2][4]. - The lack of trend opportunities in the bond market has increased investment difficulty, prompting a defensive investment approach focused on controlling drawdowns [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Leveraged carry strategies are becoming increasingly advantageous as the negative carry issue for mid-to-short duration bonds is alleviated, providing stability in the absence of capital gains [2]. - Long-duration bonds, while lacking trend opportunities, still hold value for range trading, allowing investors to capitalize on current volatility [3]. - Fixed income enhancement products are gaining traction as they combine traditional bond assets with equities and convertible bonds to meet investor demand for stable returns [4]. Group 3: Product Development - The company has developed a comprehensive fixed income enhancement investment system that includes strategies across low, medium, and high volatility, utilizing various methods such as convertible bonds and quantitative approaches [4]. - A new product, managed by the investment director, is being launched that employs a low-volatility fixed income enhancement strategy, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and a small allocation to convertible bonds for yield enhancement [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment and increased volatility in the bond market have led to a growing interest in fixed income enhancement products, with strategies involving stocks, convertible bonds, and quantitative methods being developed to create a comprehensive investment system [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments this year, with a lack of trend-based opportunities and increased volatility impacting investor experiences [1][2]. - The rise in risk appetite has put pressure on the bond market, but the fundamental support for bonds remains, with monetary policy still moderately accommodative [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The advantages of leveraged carry strategies are becoming more apparent, particularly as the negative carry issue for mid-to-short duration bonds has eased [2][3]. - The focus is shifting towards defensive strategies that control drawdowns, with an emphasis on capturing trading opportunities in a volatile environment [2][3]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Enhanced Products - There is a growing market for fixed income enhancement products that combine traditional bonds with equities and convertible bonds to meet investor demand for stable returns [3]. - The average price and conversion premium of convertible bonds have reached high levels, but current adjustments are seen as opportunities for allocation [3]. - A new product managed by the company, which combines fixed income with convertible bonds, is being launched, focusing on high-quality credit bonds while selectively engaging in long-duration bond trading [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market currently has significant differences, and breaking through the current trading range requires the formation of a new consensus, which is expected to gradually take shape in the next month [2][7]. - The economic data in August further weakened, and if the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the possibility of the central bank restarting bond purchases or even reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates cannot be ruled out [2]. - Although the bond market is currently sensitive to negative factors, the probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [2][3]. - The central bank is likely to maintain the stability of cross - quarter funds, and the adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [2][3][47]. - During the period of waiting for market consensus to form, it is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest rates need the market to reach a new consensus on the central bank's adjustment driven by the weakening fundamentals for further decline - In August, the economic data further weakened. The industrial added - value dropped to a new low of 5.2% for the year, and the 25Q3 GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 5% or lower [2][10]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in August dropped to 3.4%. After September, the base increase may further magnify the pressure, and the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment accelerated its decline, with all three sub - items weakening comprehensively [2][13][15]. - In August, the real - estate - related growth rates also declined across the board. Although the economic entered the peak season in September, the improvement of production activities was not significantly better than the seasonal average, and the export volume may face pressure in Q4 [2][18][19]. - Since Q3, the relationship between the bond market and the fundamentals has weakened. If the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the central bank may restart bond purchases or even reduce the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market needs time to reach a consensus on this [2][26]. 2. Under the central bank's stable attitude, the bank's liability pressure is limited. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices - In August, the excess reserve ratio was 1.1%, lower than expected, mainly due to the unexpected significant increase in government deposits, which may be affected by the slowdown of general public budget expenditures and the slow progress of replacement bond use [2][26][29]. - The central bank's tool issuance in recent months has been more inclined to large - scale banks. Small and medium - sized banks have continued to net repay inter - bank certificates of deposit, indicating that their motivation to expand assets through inter - bank business has weakened, and their liability pressure may be relatively lower [2][36]. - Last week, the funds tightened marginally under multiple exogenous disturbances, but on Friday, the funds became looser marginally. The average values of DR001 and DR007 since September are roughly the same as those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [2][3][40]. - The central bank's adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to fixed - quantity, interest - rate bidding, and multiple - price winning may achieve the effect of interest - rate cuts in essence, showing the intention to support cross - quarter funds and being conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [47]. 3. Emphasize the leveraged interest - rate - arbitrage strategy in the short term and wait for clearer signals for long - end bonds - The probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [3][49]. - Although the probability of the central bank's bond purchases, reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and interest - rate cuts in the future increases, the timing of market consensus formation is uncertain, and it is difficult to grasp the right - side entry rhythm [3][50]. - The central bank's liquidity easing has the highest certainty. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3][50][51].