Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent land auction in Beijing's Fengtai District, highlighting the strategic implications of the acquisition by a consortium of state-owned enterprises and the broader context of urban redevelopment and financing in the region [2][3][4]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - On September 5, a land parcel in Fengtai District was sold for a base price of 2.9 billion yuan, with a floor price of 50,000 yuan per square meter [2][3]. - The land has a planned construction area of 58,000 square meters and a plot ratio of 2.66, indicating a residential development focus [3][8]. - The winning bidders include Beijing Construction Engineering Group, Beijing Urban Construction Group, and Zhuzong Jindi, all state-owned enterprises under the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4]. Group 2: Project Financing and Background - The associated project, the Yuegezhuang Village redevelopment, has a total planned investment of 14.083 billion yuan, with 8.355 billion yuan already secured through non-special bonds and 5.728 billion yuan planned through special bond financing [3][12]. - The project has undergone two rounds of special bond financing in June 2023 and April 2025, amounting to 2.07 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [3]. Group 3: Market Context and Comparisons - Since 2020, only one residential land parcel has been sold within a 3-kilometer radius of the new site, indicating a competitive market environment [4]. - Nearby new housing projects, such as Xihua Tai, have seen average selling prices around 79,000 yuan per square meter, suggesting a significant premium over the auctioned land price [10]. - The article notes that the area is well-connected with mature living facilities, enhancing the attractiveness of the new development [9]. Group 4: Urban Redevelopment Trends - In 2025, Beijing's special bond issuance for affordable housing projects surged by 160% year-on-year, reaching 63.6 billion yuan, accounting for 24% of the national total [12][15]. - The focus on urban renewal, particularly in the context of village redevelopment, is a strategic priority for Beijing, with nearly half of the financing directed towards such projects [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the potential for significant land value appreciation and new housing sales, projecting over 200 billion yuan in land value and 400 billion yuan in new housing sales from ongoing urban redevelopment efforts [14].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current real estate market is in an adjustment period, with sales and new construction remaining sluggish. Despite frequent policy introductions, the effects are limited, and market confidence has yet to be restored. As a result, the demand for construction steel is under pressure, and the real - estate sector's role in driving steel demand has significantly weakened. The steel consumption structure is changing, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and urban renewal emerging as new growth points for steel demand. The overall steel demand is expected to decline slowly, but there are still structural highlights, and the industry is shifting from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement" [1]. - The rumored 2025 Central Urban Work Conference is unlikely to lead to a "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" in the short term. The policy tone is more cautious, and the macro - environment has changed fundamentally compared to 2015. It is difficult to replicate the shantytown renovation model to relieve real - estate inventory pressure, and new ways to stimulate effective terminal demand need to be explored [4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Comparison of Policy Expressions in 2015 and 2025 - In 2015, the shantytown monetary resettlement policy was fully implemented. The policy aimed to achieve multiple goals such as destocking and stabilizing investment and had a clear and positive tone. The 2015 urban work conference emphasized accelerating shantytown and old - building renovations [4]. - The 2025 Central Urban Work Conference indicates that China's urbanization is shifting from high - speed growth to stable development, and urban construction is moving from incremental expansion to stock quality improvement. The policy emphasizes a more cautious and long - term approach to shantytown renovation, and the expected "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" may have limited incremental impact on the real - estate and related industries [5]. Comparison of Internal Economic Environments in 2015 and 2025 - In 2015, after the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy was in a mild recovery. China cut interest rates five times, reducing the one - year loan prime rate from 5.6% to 4.35%, lowering mortgage rates and down - payment ratios. This stimulated the real economy and housing purchases, reduced financing costs, and led to a decline in the real - estate inventory - to - sales ratio [6]. - Currently, although the interest rate environment is similar to 2015 (both in a state of monetary easing), the marginal effect of easing is weakened. Residents and enterprises have weak expectations for future income, and the willingness to increase leverage is low. The current resident leverage ratio is higher than in 2015, and the investment demand for housing has decreased [6]. Comparison of External Environments in 2015 and 2025 - In 2015, the global economy was in a weak recovery after the financial crisis. Major economies implemented loose monetary policies, and global liquidity was abundant. China was in a high - growth phase of industrialization, with strong exports and low inflation, providing room for domestic monetary easing [7]. - Currently, the global economy faces more complex challenges. Major developed economies maintain high - interest rate policies after high - inflation shocks, and there are frequent geopolitical conflicts and trade policy disturbances. China is in a period of population structure adjustment and real - estate deleveraging, with both internal and external demand weakening. The effectiveness of monetary easing is restricted [7][9]. Outlook for the Steel Industry - The real - estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with weak sales, investment, and new construction. Policy support has not effectively restored market confidence, and the demand for construction steel is expected to remain under pressure [14]. - The steel demand structure will gradually shift from being dominated by real - estate to being supported by infrastructure, manufacturing, and green transformation projects. Although the real - estate sector still has a negative impact, the overall steel demand may decline slowly and undergo structural adjustment [14].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

宏观消息面： 1、商务部：已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动。 2、当地时间 7 月 9 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，美国将对进口铜征收 50% 的关税，自 2025 年 8 月 1 日起生效。 3、中国汽车工业协会数据显示，1 至 6 月份，汽车市场延续良好态势，产销量均超过 1500 万辆，同比 均实现 10%以上较高增长。 文字早评 2025/07/11 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 4、北京：拓宽财产性收入渠道 鼓励上市公司合理提高分红率。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.32%/-0.77%/-0.95%/-1.71%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.41%/-1.31%/-2.15%/-4.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.49%/-1.60%/-2.73%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.42%/-0.54%/-0.60%/-0.56%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金 ...

Real Estate - The recent surge in the real estate market is primarily driven by policy support and upcoming central urban work meetings focusing on urban renewal and potential shantytown redevelopment [1] - Bloomberg reported that the market is betting on China restarting the shantytown renovation support plan from 2015, which may include accelerating new housing construction and providing monetary compensation to families [1] - The State Council aims to stabilize the real estate market and better meet public expectations for quality housing through new development models [1] Banking Sector - Global bank indices have reached new highs, with increases of 52% for global banks, 49% for U.S. banks, and 65% for European banks since the beginning of 2024 [4] - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3500 points, indicating strong performance in the banking sector [5][6] - The banking sector is viewed as a stable investment, with major banks hitting historical highs [5] Market Dynamics - The real estate and housing inspection sectors experienced significant gains, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit [6] - The silicon wafer manufacturers raised their prices, contributing to sustained gains in the silicon energy sector [6] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector showed positive performance, with North Rare Earth's net profit expected to grow by 1883% to 2015% year-on-year in the first half of the year [6][10] Chip Industry - Nvidia plans to launch a new AI chip designed for the Chinese market, which will comply with U.S. export restrictions by removing advanced technology components [9] - Despite the new chip's performance being inferior to local competitors, Chinese customers are still interested due to the high operational costs of switching platforms [10] - The demand for the new chip is expected to be lower than its predecessor, which faced significant restrictions earlier this year [10] Investment Trends - The non-bank financial sector saw the largest net inflow of capital, indicating strong investor interest [11] - The real estate and banking sectors are currently attracting significant investment, while sectors like electronics and automotive are experiencing net outflows [11] - The overall market sentiment is reflected in the performance of various sectors, with real estate, oil and gas, and steel leading the gains, while defense, electronics, and automotive sectors lag behind [19]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of urban renewal is set to significantly impact the real estate market, with a focus on improving living conditions and stimulating domestic demand rather than creating wealth through demolition and reconstruction [2][19]. Group 1: Urban Renewal vs. Previous Housing Renovation - The current urban renewal differs fundamentally from the previous "shelter improvement" initiatives, which allowed individuals to gain wealth through direct financial compensation [4][5]. - Urban renewal is likened to repairing an old car instead of replacing it, focusing on maintaining and upgrading existing structures rather than large-scale demolition [8][10]. - The government aims to stimulate consumption and boost employment through urban renewal, which is seen as a crucial strategy for expanding domestic demand [12][16]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Urban renewal is expected to create more jobs due to the labor-intensive nature of repair work compared to large construction projects, thus driving employment [12][17]. - The initiative will also consume significant amounts of construction materials, benefiting related industries that have been struggling in recent years [12][13]. - Although the scale of urban renewal may seem small compared to previous housing renovations, its cumulative effect on the economy should not be underestimated as it can lead to substantial economic stimulation over time [14][19]. Group 3: Long-term Benefits - Urban renewal is positioned as a new driver for economic growth, replacing the traditional reliance on real estate for GDP contribution, especially as the real estate sector contracts [17][19]. - The initiative is expected to facilitate the reduction of housing inventory and promote sustainable economic development through stock investment rather than large-scale infrastructure projects [17][19]. - Ultimately, while urban renewal may not create instant wealth for individuals, its long-term benefits for the economy and society are significant, fostering a healthier economic environment for all [19].