Summary of the Conference Call for 恒瑞医药 Company Overview - **Company**: 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Key Points and Arguments Financial Projections - Expected domestic sales revenue growth of over 15% in 2025, with innovative drugs growing over 25% and generic drugs stabilizing [2][5] - Anticipated overseas licensing revenue exceeding $500 million, with total revenue growth projected at over 19% [2][5] - Net profit expected to reach 8.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2][5] Innovation and Product Pipeline - Focus on innovative drugs as a key growth driver, with several major products and indications launched, such as 白介 17, Jack one, and HER2 ADC [2][6] - Projected sales for innovative drugs to reach 17.4 billion RMB in 2025, contributing over 3.4 billion RMB to net profit [2][6] - R&D pipeline includes over 30 projects ranked in the top three globally, enhancing market competitiveness and valuation flexibility [2][7] International Expansion - Multiple overseas projects in progress, including a $200 million LPA project and 11 preclinical projects worth $500 million [2][9] - Expected BD (business development) revenue to exceed $575 million in 2025, contributing over 3 billion RMB to profits [2][9] Investment Logic - Investment logic based on three pillars: 1. Product harvest period leading to accelerated internal growth and valuation recovery [3] 2. Overseas market as a second growth curve with sustainable revenue potential [3] 3. Early-stage R&D pipeline targeting best-in-class or first-in-class products [3] Competitive Landscape - Transition from a fast-follow strategy to a best-in-class and first-in-class approach, with a competitive edge in ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) products [3][12] - Significant advancements in ADC products, with global clinical progress ranking among the fastest [21][20] Market Dynamics - Domestic market expected to achieve significant growth over the next three years, driven by the approval of heavyweight products [14] - The company’s innovative drug sales are projected to maintain a rapid growth trend, supported by favorable policy changes [6][14] R&D Efficiency - R&D expense ratio reached a historical high in 2024, with expectations for improvement in efficiency and a stable ratio around 20% in the future [8][31] - Enhanced R&D efficiency is anticipated to drive net profit growth faster than revenue growth [8] Valuation Model - Valuation model includes six components: 1. PE valuation for generic drugs 2. PS valuation based on peak sales for innovative drugs 3. PS valuation for early-stage pipeline 4. PS valuation for overseas projects 5. Potential overseas market space 6. Best-in-class and first-in-class product potential [30] Future Growth Drivers - Key factors influencing future market performance include product performance, successful international expansion, and the realization of early-stage pipeline value [31] Additional Important Insights - The company has established a strong presence in four major therapeutic areas: oncology, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, immune and respiratory diseases, and neuroscience [18] - Continuous exploration of various internationalization models, including partnerships and direct licensing [15][17] - The company’s innovative strategies in treating diseases like psoriasis and KRAS-targeted therapies demonstrate a deep understanding of disease mechanisms [29][22] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth strategies, financial outlook, and competitive positioning within the pharmaceutical industry.

Fixed Income - The bond market is under pressure from three main factors: rising industrial commodity prices due to "anti-involution" sentiment, a bullish stock market diverting funds away from bonds, and marginal improvements in economic indicators increasing market risk appetite [2][7][10] - As of July 25, 2025, the yields on various bonds, including government and corporate bonds, have risen significantly, indicating a market adjustment [2][7] - The report suggests a short-term bullish outlook for the bond market, with a potential return of the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.65% [10] Non-Banking Financials - The insurance industry is adjusting the maximum preset interest rates for life insurance products, with the new maximum for ordinary life insurance set at 2.0% and for participating insurance at 1.75% [12][13] - This adjustment is expected to lower the liability costs for insurance companies and encourage a shift towards participating insurance products, which have floating interest characteristics [13] - The report recommends companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have favorable asset-liability duration matching [13] Transportation - The express delivery industry is experiencing a shift towards value reassessment due to the "anti-involution" trend, which aims to protect the rights of delivery personnel and promote price increases across the industry [15][16] - The report highlights the potential for price improvements in the short term, especially in regions where delivery companies are currently facing losses [17] - Long-term prospects suggest a transition from price wars to value competition, which could enhance the performance of express delivery companies [17] Pharmaceuticals - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has entered a significant partnership with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for the global licensing of its innovative drug HRS-9821, with potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [19][20] - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth driven by its innovative drug pipeline, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [21][22] - The collaboration with GSK is anticipated to enhance Heng Rui's valuation and market presence, particularly in the respiratory field [20][21] New Consumption - Lao Pu Gold has projected impressive sales growth for the first half of 2025, with expected revenues between RMB 138 billion and 143 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 240% to 252% [24][25] - The company's brand influence and product optimization are key drivers of this growth, positioning it well in the high-end ancient gold market [25][26] - The ancient gold sector is expected to see strong growth, with a projected market size of RMB 2.193 trillion by 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028 [25][26]