三、网络经济发挥引领作用 中新网8月27日电据国家统计局网站消息，国家统计局统计科学研究所所长闾海琪解读2024年我国经济 发展新动能指数称，经济发展新动能是拓展新增长点、推动经济升级发展、加快构建新发展格局的重要 驱动力。经济发展新动能指数最新测算结果显示，2024年我国经济发展新动能指数为136.0，比上年增 长14.2%，以新产业、新业态、新模式为主要内容的新动能继续成长壮大，经济展现较强活力，创新驱 动发展取得新成效，网络经济带动作用明显，转型升级持续推进，新动能培育和旧动能更新协调联动， 支持我国经济高质量发展扎实推进。 一、经济发展保持较强活力 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，加快重点领域改革举措落地见效，有效开展重点领域突出问题专项治 理，出台规范地方招商引资的措施，着力畅通国内大循环，高新技术企业保持增长，投资结构进一步优 化，市场经济活力持续释放。测算显示，2024年经济活力指数为130.9，比上年增长14.5%。全年新设经 营主体2737万户，日均新设企业2.4万户；高技术产业投资增长8.0%，快于全部投资4.8个百分点，其 中，高技术制造业、高技术服务业投资分别增长7.0%、10.2%；快递 ...

据报道，美联储又一次把全球金融神经线拨动了。这回鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上放出明确信号： 9月降息几乎板上钉钉，全年可能还要连续降息三次。美股应声大涨，美元指数跳水，市场一片狂欢。 但美国自己还没喘口气，国际场上却起了新风波——7个国家接连宣布暂停对美包裹服务，美方又以"涉 伊朗"为由制裁中国公司。看似杂乱无章，其实根子全在美国自身的全球政策失调，一边激进宽松，一 边全球"拉仇恨"，各国反应逐渐升级，中国的反击也在路上。 鲍威尔这番讲话，内容其实不复杂。美联储要降息，理由很明确：美国就业数据意外下滑，经济前景不 确定，政策需要"调整立场"。市场把这解读为"鸽派回归"，美联储从危机模式回归灵活通胀目标制，准 备主动释放流动性，缓和高利率对经济的掣肘。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，9月降息概 率已经高达85%，投行普遍预期今年将连续降息三次，每次25个基点。美国股市上蹿下跳，纳指频创新 高，华尔街投行们又开始鼓吹美股新牛市。 但美国的"好日子"并没有多少国家陪着高兴。美联储还没正式降息，7个国家已经率先对美国说"不"。 美国8月29日起暂停对800美元及以下进口包裹的免税待遇，欧洲、亚太多国邮政机构一拥 ...

Group 1 - The current phase of "anti-involution" is primarily focused on regulating corporate and government behavior to maintain fair market competition, with many industries still in this initial stage [1][2][10] - Specific actions include price adjustments in the express delivery sector, with a price increase of 0.4 yuan per ticket in Guangdong province starting August 5, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [2][10] - Other industries, such as aviation, banking, and steel, are also engaging in self-regulation and industry initiatives to combat "involution" [2][10] Group 2 - Some industries, notably the photovoltaic sector, have advanced to the second phase, which involves market-driven methods like mergers and restructuring to eliminate ineffective capacity [2][11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated energy-saving inspections for 41 polysilicon companies, aiming to enforce energy consumption standards and phase out outdated production processes [2][11] Group 3 - No industry has yet entered the third phase, which would involve setting clear and specific "hard targets" to resolve supply-demand conflicts [3][11] Group 4 - Economic indicators show a mixed outlook, with real estate sales declining at a slower rate, and construction activity, such as asphalt plant operation rates, showing slight improvements [4][21][26] - The macroeconomic activity index, as of August 10, is at 6.52%, down from 7.77% on August 3, indicating a slight decline but still at a relatively high level [15] Group 5 - The retail sales growth of passenger vehicles has been declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 4% as of August 10, following a 6.3% increase in July [21] - The land premium rate has also decreased, falling to 1.9% as of August 10, compared to 6.5% in July [21] Group 6 - The port container throughput in China has rebounded significantly, with a 19.6% increase week-on-week as of August 10, and a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1% [33][34] - The prices of major commodities have shown signs of recovery, with lithium carbonate leading the increase, rising by 15.4% to 86,920 yuan per ton [52][53]

Group 1: Anti-Overwork Progress - The anti-overwork initiative is progressing in three phases, with most industries still in the first phase focused on regulating corporate and government behavior to maintain fair competition[10] - As of August 5, express delivery companies in Guangdong raised their base price by 0.4 CNY per ticket, increasing the average price to over 1.4 CNY[11] - The photovoltaic industry has entered the second phase, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducting energy efficiency inspections on 41 polysilicon companies[12] Group 2: Economic Observations - The Huachuang macroeconomic activity index was 6.52% as of August 10, down 1.25 percentage points from August 3[18] - Real estate sales showed a reduced decline, with a 16% year-on-year decrease in housing sales in 67 cities in early August, compared to a 22% decline in July[24] - The port container throughput in China rebounded significantly, with a 19.6% week-on-week increase as of August 10, leading to a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1%[36] Group 3: Price and Trade Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate futures closed at 86,920 CNY per ton, reflecting a 15.4% increase[4] - The land premium rate fell to 1.9% as of August 10, down from 6.5% in July[25] - The U.S. government announced an expansion of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, affecting 407 product codes, with an effective tariff rate of approximately 11.3%[38]

Group 1 - The "Three New" economy in China achieved a value-added of 242,908 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 6.7% year-on-year, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [1] - The proportion of the "Three New" economy in GDP reached 18.01%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The continuous growth of the "Three New" economy is attributed to local efforts in developing new productive forces and enhancing the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 2 - The rapid development of online shopping has significantly boosted related industries, with the national online retail sales reaching 74,295 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2] - The express delivery industry exemplifies this growth, with a total of 956.4 billion express deliveries completed in the first half of the year, marking a 19.3% increase [2] - The emergence of new industries, new business formats, and new business models has created numerous job opportunities, with job postings in fields like humanoid robots and new materials increasing by 398.1% and 72.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of technological innovation in leading the development of new productive forces and fostering internationally competitive emerging pillar industries [3] - The "Three New" economy is expected to continue evolving by exploring new pathways and enhancing new momentum, requiring collaboration among various stakeholders [3] - Strengthening the regulatory framework and optimizing the business environment are essential for the sustainable growth of the "Three New" economy [3]

Fixed Income - The bond market is under pressure from three main factors: rising industrial commodity prices due to "anti-involution" sentiment, a bullish stock market diverting funds away from bonds, and marginal improvements in economic indicators increasing market risk appetite [2][7][10] - As of July 25, 2025, the yields on various bonds, including government and corporate bonds, have risen significantly, indicating a market adjustment [2][7] - The report suggests a short-term bullish outlook for the bond market, with a potential return of the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.65% [10] Non-Banking Financials - The insurance industry is adjusting the maximum preset interest rates for life insurance products, with the new maximum for ordinary life insurance set at 2.0% and for participating insurance at 1.75% [12][13] - This adjustment is expected to lower the liability costs for insurance companies and encourage a shift towards participating insurance products, which have floating interest characteristics [13] - The report recommends companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have favorable asset-liability duration matching [13] Transportation - The express delivery industry is experiencing a shift towards value reassessment due to the "anti-involution" trend, which aims to protect the rights of delivery personnel and promote price increases across the industry [15][16] - The report highlights the potential for price improvements in the short term, especially in regions where delivery companies are currently facing losses [17] - Long-term prospects suggest a transition from price wars to value competition, which could enhance the performance of express delivery companies [17] Pharmaceuticals - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has entered a significant partnership with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for the global licensing of its innovative drug HRS-9821, with potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [19][20] - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth driven by its innovative drug pipeline, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [21][22] - The collaboration with GSK is anticipated to enhance Heng Rui's valuation and market presence, particularly in the respiratory field [20][21] New Consumption - Lao Pu Gold has projected impressive sales growth for the first half of 2025, with expected revenues between RMB 138 billion and 143 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 240% to 252% [24][25] - The company's brand influence and product optimization are key drivers of this growth, positioning it well in the high-end ancient gold market [25][26] - The ancient gold sector is expected to see strong growth, with a projected market size of RMB 2.193 trillion by 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028 [25][26]

Group 1 - The article highlights various summer promotions and discounts available for consumers, encouraging them to take advantage of these offers [1][2][15] - Specific promotions include a maximum discount of 50 yuan for new users and additional savings through combined offers [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of enjoying summer activities, such as travel and entertainment, with various discounts from airlines and service providers [11][13][14] Group 2 - Companies like Luckin Coffee and Meituan are promoting their summer deals, focusing on refreshing beverages and diverse entertainment options [7][15] - The article suggests that consumers can save significantly on travel and leisure activities during the summer season, making it an ideal time for shopping and enjoyment [11][15] - The overall message encourages consumers to seize the opportunity for savings and enhance their summer experiences through these promotions [1][2][11]

Group 1 - Honor launched its new AI flagship product line, including the foldable smartphone Magic V5 and the AI tablet MagicPad3, with a long-term system upgrade plan for both devices [2] - Honor's CFO revealed that the company's IPO process has progressed to the second stage, the counseling period, which is expected to last at least three months and is currently going smoothly [2] Group 2 - BYD's passenger car factory in Camasari, Bahia, Brazil, recently held its first vehicle off the production line, with a total investment of 5.5 billion reais (approximately 7.1 billion yuan) [3] - The factory is part of a larger production base that includes three factories, designed to produce pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles with an annual capacity of 150,000 units [3] Group 3 - Hozon Auto's affiliated company, Hozon New Energy Vehicle Co., Ltd., has had its equity frozen, involving 2 billion yuan worth of shares for three years, as per the Nanjing Intermediate People's Court [4] - This is the second instance of equity freezing for the same amount, with the first occurring in January of this year [4] Group 4 - Taobao Flash Sale announced a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan for consumers and merchants over the next 12 months, aimed at boosting transaction growth within the ecosystem [5] - The plan includes store subsidies, product discounts, delivery fee reductions, and commission incentives for merchants, as well as red envelopes and official subsidies for consumers [5] Group 5 - Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun clarified that the company has no plans to manufacture bicycles or motorcycles, addressing rumors sparked by a circulated image of a "Xiaomi road bike" [6] - The company emphasized that personal hobbies of executives do not influence business plans, and there are currently no related product lines in development [6] Group 6 - The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a notice prohibiting the carrying of unqualified power banks on flights, leading to tightened policies by express delivery companies [7] - Companies like JD Express and SF Express have added power banks with safety hazards to their prohibited shipping list, while some airports have set up pre-inspection stations for travelers [7]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry in China is expected to benefit from the easing of US-China trade tensions and improving supply-demand dynamics, leading to enhanced pricing power [2][1] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (00753), Eastern Airlines (00670), Southern Airlines (01055), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [2] - Guangzhou Baiyun Airport (600004.SH) is favored as a defensive choice due to its lower exposure to duty-free business and high dividend yield amid consumer pressure [2][1] Group 2: Shipping Industry - Geopolitical factors are impacting freight rates, but oversupply of capacity remains a primary concern for the next 12 to 24 months [3] - The oil tanker segment is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and tighter regulations on "shadow fleets," with recommendations to increase holdings in China Merchants Energy (601872.SH) and COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) [3] - For dry bulk shipping, Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) is recommended for its stable shareholder returns, while container shipping stocks like COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) and Orient Overseas International (00316) are advised to be reduced [3] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is anticipated to face intensified price competition and ongoing industry consolidation from 2025 onwards [4] - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) is viewed as the most promising stock in the next 12 to 24 months, while SF Express (002352.SZ) shows strong profit growth potential [4] - Companies leveraging artificial intelligence, such as ZTO, SF Express, and YTO Express (600233.SH), are also highlighted for their growth prospects [4]

Domestic News - The 2025 version of the "National Land Spatial Planning Urban Health Assessment Regulations" was officially released on May 16, emphasizing a people-centered approach and enhancing planning adaptability. New indicators include the area of agricultural land within 20 kilometers of urban areas and the number of water sources, aimed at improving urban food security and water supply [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced efforts to accelerate the implementation of the departure tax refund policy, enhancing the coverage of tax refund stores and the attractiveness of refund products to boost inbound consumption and support economic recovery [2] - In the first quarter, China's digital industry achieved a business revenue of 8.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with profit totaling 572.1 billion yuan, up 7.0%. The growth rate of key indicators in the digital industry accelerated, indicating a surge in innovation [3] Trade and Finance - From January to April, Jiangsu Province's total goods trade import and export value reached 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, which is 3.3 percentage points higher than the national average. Exports amounted to 1.23 trillion yuan, growing by 10.3%, while imports decreased by 2.5% to 615.79 billion yuan [4] International News - In the week ending on the 14th, U.S. stock markets experienced their first inflow of funds in five weeks, totaling 19.8 billion USD, while the bond market attracted 13.1 billion USD in inflows for the third consecutive week [6] - Walmart announced plans to raise prices on certain products in the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [6] - The Central Bank of Mexico announced a 50 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 8.5%, with potential for further cuts to address weak economic growth and declining inflation trends [6]