上述广义财政收入并不包括中央对地方转移支付、债务等收入，一般来说算上各类收入，最终财政收支能达到平衡。 今年前11个月广义财政收入与去年同期基本持平情形下，广义财政支出保持4.5%增速，与今年经济增速（5%左右）相近。这体 现了今年更加积极财政政策落地，发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的重要作用，财政支出保持一定力度，也能推动今年 经济平稳运行。 今年以来广义财政收入接近于年初官方预期。 根据《关于2024年中央和地方预算执行情况与2025年中央和地方预算草案的报告》（下称《报告》），2025年全年广义财政收 入预计增长约0.2%，而目前前11个月实际下降约0.2%，实际增速与预计增速相近。 具体来看，今年前11个月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，略好于年初预期（0.1%）。这主要得益于今年经济运行平稳， 带动相关税收增长，同时资本市场活跃，也带动个税、证券交易印花税等相关税收较快增长。税收征管不断强化，纳税人合规 纳税意识增强，也是推动收入增长的一个因素。 不过今年政府性基金收入依然低于年初预期，这主要跟楼市持续低迷、地方政府土地出让收入不及预期有关。 今年财政支出结构持续优化，财政资金更加注重投资 ...

明年要着眼惠民生增后劲，推动投资止跌回稳。当前投资出现下滑，但我国在科技创新、产业升级、基 础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项。要把投资于物和投资于人相结合，统筹提振消费和扩大投 资，加快建设停车场、充电桩、旅游公路等消费基础设施，提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投资比重， 高质量推进城市更新，着力扩大有效投资。要有效发挥政府投资带动作用，用好中央预算内投资、超长 期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金，优化实施"两重"项目，靠前实施具备条件的"十五五"重大项 目，发挥重大工程牵引带动作用。要激发民间投资活力，落实好进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施， 支持民营企业参与铁路、核电等领域重大项目，引导民间投资向高技术、服务业等新赛道拓展，以更实 举措增强民间投资信心。 （文章来源：新华社） 针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同志表示，扩大 内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到 71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所 放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。 明年要把握消费的结构性变化， ...

Core Viewpoint - The November BCI stands at 51.6, slightly lower than the previous value of 52.0, but still represents the second-highest level in the second half of the year. This performance is somewhat unexpected given the high base effect from the "924" policy implementation [1][4]. Economic Rhythm - The BCI has shown a recovery trend throughout the year, peaking in March at 54.8. It experienced a decline in the second quarter due to external tariff disturbances and a rapid drop in July and August due to investment contraction, prompting a significant fiscal response starting in late September [1][5][6]. Sales and Profit Divergence - Sales increased by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, while profits decreased by 1.5 percentage points. The sales improvement is likely attributed to the recovery of orders due to policy-driven financial instruments, whereas profit decline is mainly due to rising costs from raw material price rebounds [8][9]. Price Index Trends - The intermediate goods price index rose by 5.7 percentage points month-on-month, while the consumer goods price index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points. This aligns with high-frequency data, indicating that demand recovery needs to accumulate before downstream prices show a significant upward trend [12][14]. Investment and Employment Indices - Notably, the investment and employment indices showed a significant seasonal increase in November, reaching annual highs. This is attributed to the impact of policy-driven financial tools, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools supporting over 2,300 projects [16][17]. Financing Environment - The corporate financing environment index rose significantly, reflecting the impact of policy financial tools on project capital. The index increased by 4.8 percentage points in October and further by 0.1 percentage points in November, indicating a favorable financing environment [19][20]. Summary of BCI Components - The BCI components such as sales, investment, employment, and financing are beginning to reflect the impact of policy financial tools. However, these are considered "soft data," and the timing of improvements in "hard data" like fixed asset investment growth and new credit is crucial for validation [23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to offer good investment opportunities due to the ongoing "asset shortage" logic, supported by policy strength and expectations of social security and pension funds entering the market [4][5] - The issuance market remains active, with 11 REITs funds waiting to be listed, indicating a robust market environment [55] Market Overview - As of the 47th week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index was 810.2, up 5.82% year-on-year but down 0.97% month-on-month; the CSI REITs total return index was 1041.16, up 11.84% year-on-year but down 0.89% month-on-month [4][15][19] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs (closing) index has increased by 7.11%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 29.8%, resulting in an excess return of -22.69% [15][19] Trading Activity - In the 47th week, the trading volume of the REITs market reached 557 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, with a trading value of 2.375 billion yuan, up 23.89% year-on-year [4][26][30] - The turnover rate for the week was 2.21%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [26][27] Sector Performance - Weekly performance for various REITs sectors showed declines: affordable housing -1.88%, environmental -0.70%, highway -1.21%, industrial park -0.89%, warehousing and logistics -1.09%, energy -1.87%, and consumer REITs -1.45% [36][49] - Monthly performance indicated that consumer REITs had a cumulative increase of 2.79% [36] Upcoming Listings - There are currently 11 REITs funds awaiting listing, with active applications indicating a vibrant issuance market [55]

Group 1: PMI Analysis - October manufacturing PMI declined to 49% from 49.8%, reaching the level of April 2025[6] - The production sector showed significant decline, with production and procurement PMI components experiencing large month-on-month drops[6] - Service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday effects, particularly in transportation and hospitality sectors[6] Group 2: External Demand and Policy Impact - New export orders PMI fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, indicating persistent external demand pressure[6] - Despite a 10% reduction in tariffs on certain goods, the short-term improvement in foreign trade orders is expected to be limited due to prior over-expectation[6] - New government policies are beginning to show effects on domestic demand, with consumer goods PMI at 50.1%, indicating resilience compared to high-tech sectors[6] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - A total of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been fully allocated, targeting sectors like digital economy and infrastructure[6] - Although construction PMI slightly decreased to 49.1%, new orders and business activity expectations PMI rose significantly, suggesting upcoming demand growth[6] - The overall economic stabilization is anticipated as external shocks are gradually absorbed and domestic demand expands[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, which has stimulated an investment of 7 trillion yuan across various sectors [1][3] - The funds have supported over 2,300 projects, focusing on key areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects including transportation, energy, and underground pipeline construction [1][3] - The initiative has increased support for major economic provinces and important industries, with an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas allocated to assist certain provinces in investment construction [3] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to work with relevant departments to expedite project commencement and enhance effective investment to promote high-quality development [3]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has fully allocated 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, artificial intelligence, and urban renewal sectors [2][3] - The NDRC plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds, with an additional 200 billion yuan allocated to support local government investment projects [2] - The NDRC aims to enhance the efficiency of logistics costs, reporting that total logistics costs for the first three quarters of the year reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with a GDP ratio of 14.0%, marking a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 2 - The NDRC will coordinate efforts to ensure energy supply during the winter, focusing on maintaining stable energy production and addressing supply-demand imbalances [5] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and effective investment expansion, urging local governments and central enterprises to expedite project construction [3]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has accelerated the implementation of policies to expand effective investment, with a focus on new policy financial tools [3] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been fully allocated to support over 2,300 projects, which are aimed at supplementing project capital and involve a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [3] - Key investment areas include digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, as well as transportation, energy, and water conservancy [3] Group 2 - The NDRC is actively working on the preparation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, ensuring alignment between provincial and national planning [6] - For the upcoming heating season, the NDRC is focusing on energy supply, resource reserves, and emergency adjustments to ensure a balanced energy supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has successfully allocated 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, artificial intelligence, and urban renewal sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Support - The NDRC, in collaboration with various ministries, has accelerated the deployment of new policy financial tools, fully utilizing 500 billion yuan to support significant projects [1]. - An additional 200 billion yuan in special bonds has been allocated to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [3][4]. - The NDRC aims to expedite project commencement and increase physical work output to promote high-quality development [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Performance Indicators - In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [4]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5%, with a 1.2 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous year [4]. - Industrial output saw a significant rise, with the value added by large-scale industries growing by 6.2%, marking the highest growth since 2022 [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Industry Growth - China's innovation index has entered the global top ten, bolstering the development of emerging industries [4]. - The value added by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, with significant contributions from integrated circuit and smart device manufacturing [4][5]. Group 4: Export and Market Resilience - Despite external pressures, China's goods exports maintained a growth rate of 7.1%, with high-tech and high-value-added products gaining wider recognition [5]. - Exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 12.4%, and exports to ASEAN countries have shown continuous growth for eight months [5]. Group 5: Consumer Demand and Structural Upgrades - Consumer demand is showing new strengths, with significant growth in service retail and inbound tourism [5]. - The production of high-end, green, and intelligent products is rapidly increasing, with notable growth in civilian drones and industrial robots [5]. Group 6: Future Economic Outlook - The achievements in the first three quarters lay a solid foundation for meeting annual economic targets, with international organizations raising their growth forecasts for China [6]. - The NDRC plans to strengthen policy research and timely implementation to ensure the continued effectiveness of economic policies [6].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that the Chinese economy has shown resilience and progress amid pressures, with a solid foundation laid for achieving annual goals [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, various regions and departments have effectively implemented the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - The achievements in the first three quarters are expected to facilitate the successful completion of annual economic targets [1] Group 2: Financial Tools and Investments - A new policy financial tool has successfully deployed 500 billion yuan, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and urban infrastructure [2] - An additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas has been allocated to support investment projects in certain provinces, with an emphasis on accelerating project initiation and effective investment [3] Group 3: Logistics Cost Reduction - The total logistics cost for the first three quarters was 14.2 trillion yuan, with a GDP ratio of 14.0%, marking a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous year, maintaining the lowest level since records began [4] - The logistics sector is transitioning towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with innovations such as unmanned delivery vehicles and smart lockers being widely adopted [4] Group 4: Energy Supply for Winter - The NDRC is coordinating efforts to ensure energy supply and resource reserves for the winter heating season, focusing on energy production stability and emergency response [5][6] - Measures include daily scheduling, ensuring compliance with energy contracts, and preparing for adverse weather conditions to maintain stable energy supply for the public [6]