我放这个数据 ， 主要是想表达的是 ， 当前的时代和 上世纪 70 年代、 80 年代相比，具有非常强的 共 性。所以在这种背景下，我们说 这种所谓的叫 双重金属，既具有 " 国家战略安全属性 " ，还具备着生产力进步 、 新的科技进步对其需求提振 。 它具备双重金属的特 征，它会表现出价格的异常。 这个情况其实在 70 年代到 80 年代，其实都在这些金属上爆发过。之所以提，因为过去的几年的时间里， 我觉得我们跟当年的这个时代其实有着非常大的一个相同性。 我在 2016 年 写 《 见证逆潮 》 初稿 的时候，其实就提到过这两个时代的雷同，本质上来讲都是科技在经历战争或者经历 停滞 的大阶 段，像美国大概从 1965 年一直到 1980 年之间 ， 进入到 长期 的全要素生产率 停滞 阶段。 我们 目前所处 这个阶段中，逆全球化的特 征 —— 或者 说 右 翼 化的特征会比较明显 ， 同时地缘政治 比较 紧张， 而 科技的进步和新的生产力正在逐渐产生 。 在 上世纪 60 年代到 80 年代的阶段中，其实是完全一样的。工业时代带来的生产力红利已经结束，生产关系的错配正在产生。全球的右 翼化和冷战的这种思潮在 ...

暴涨之后短线极速下跌，金属牛还在否？ 12月29日，多个强势的金属品种尾盘跳水，其中钯、铂更是跌停，碳酸锂一度封住跌停；沪银从一度涨停，到尾盘仅收涨 0.51%。夜盘，沪银大跌超8%，沪金跌4%。 外盘方面，NYMEX钯金大跌超16%，NYMEX铂金大跌超14%，COMEX黄金跌超4%，COMEX白银跌超7%。 银还叠加工业需求。根据预测，2025年全球光伏用银预计将突破5200吨。从供给看，白银等产量较为刚性，供应量基本保持稳 定。在需求增长、供给刚性下，上期所仓库的白银库存已降至715吨，这是2016年7月以来的最低水平。 此外，白银、铂等长期处于历史低位，也是价格上涨的重要原因。沪银从2013年开始，在近长达10年时间里，一直处于2000元 ~4000元/千克的历史低位，铂价格从2015年至2025年上半年，长期处于不到300元/克的低位。 贵金属在短线暴涨后，又出现快速下跌。市场分析认为，技术指标修复、投资者获利了结，交易所政策打压等因素是引发市场 调整的主要原因。 消息面上，12月29日，美国芝商所集团宣布全线上调包括金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金，并在当地时间周一 收盘后生效，其中，黄 ...

与此同时，南非政府正在加快推进出口市场多元化和出口产品结构优化，而非洲大陆自由贸易区建设的 持续推进，也为南非拓展区域市场提供了新的支持。 南非经济分析公司首席执行官兼首席经济学家 贾米恩：美国并不是南非最主要的出口目的地，其市场 仅占南非出口总额的大约7%，因此新增关税造成的影响比较小 。 此外，尽管个别产品面临较高关税，但南非出口到美国的相当一部分关键矿产品获得了豁免，包括铂 金、钯、铑、铬、锰等对美国具有战略意义的矿产资源，这对南非来说也是一个有利因素。 进入2025年以来，全球贸易摩擦加剧，美国对多国加征关税，使得一些新兴经济体的贸易遭受严重影 响。然而在这种情况下，南非的贸易抗住了冲击，展现出很强的韧性。 数据显示，进入2025年以来，尽管面临美国关税政策带来的外部冲击，但南非对外贸易整体保持稳定， 并且已经连续8个月实现贸易顺差。专家分析认为，南非的出口市场相对分散，因此在面对美国关税压 力时，具备一定的缓冲空间。 南非经济分析公司首席执行官兼首席经济学家 贾米恩：南非希望在2030年实现总额3万亿兰特的出口目 标，2024年南非出口额已超过2万亿兰特，所以这一目标并不是难以企及的。 专家同时指出 ...

全球大宗商品格局正经历着剧烈的变革，资源丰富的国家正寻求通过与大宗商品贸易商建立合作关系， 加强对自身矿产财富的控制。 近日，刚果（金）国有矿业公司Gécamines SA和瑞士大宗商品公司Mercuria Energy Trading宣布建立合 作伙伴关系，旨在促进刚果（金）矿业部门铜、钴和其他关键矿产的销售。 美国国际发展金融公司（DFC）表示，有兴趣入股这一新合作项目。DFC的加入可能会使美国终端用户 获得铜和钴供应的优先购买权。 值得注意的是，12月初，刚果（金）与卢旺达在美国的斡旋下签署了和平协议，不久后，Gécamines与 Mercuria便确认建立新的合作伙伴关系。而DFC的加入也与这一时点密切相关，在和平协议签署前，特 朗普发表讲话称，当天将分别与刚果（金）以及卢旺达签署双边协议，为美国获取关键矿产资源开辟新 机会。 改变传统采矿收入模式 Gécamines和Mercuria的合作关系是根据今年早些时候签署的谅解备忘录建立的，旨在优化Gécamines的 铜、钴生产收入。 两个实体之间的风险分担机制是，Mercuria提供运营支持，涵盖物流、市场准入和交易专业知识的运 用；Gécamines ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Iron Ore - Short - term lack of macro - drive, terminal demand of steel shows unexpected rebound, and steel inventory pressure eases, but the increase in rebar production brings pressure to further inventory improvement. - Supply peak of foreign mines has passed, and shipment and arrival volume are expected to decline. Demand side shows short - term fluctuation in hot metal production, but it will decline throughout the year. Inventory will tend to accumulate, and the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore will operate in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline. Coking coal led the decline, and the position of the 01 contract gradually shifted to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Currently, there is a lack of domestic macro - drive, and terminal demand is sluggish. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve effectively, with strong cost support. The supply of ferrosilicon has shrunk slightly, inventory has decreased significantly, and cost support is fair. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction and high inventory of alloys put pressure on prices, and alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the main futures contracts of various varieties on November 21, 2025, compared with November 14, 2025, showed different changes. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar increased by 0.13%, the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.43%, the I2601 contract of iron ore increased by 1.68%, the J2601 contract of coke decreased by 3.29%, the JM2601 contract of coking coal decreased by 7.47%, the SM2601 contract of ferromanganese decreased by 2.47%, and the SF2603 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.23% [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various varieties also changed. For example, the HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai increased by 0.94%, the Q235B hot - rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 0.31%, the PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 0.89%, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 3.27%, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 0.70%, the FeMn65Si17 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.43%, and the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Iron Ore - **Logic**: The increase in finished steel apparent demand and continuous inventory reduction, slowdown in the decline of domestic demand, and the boost of market speculation sentiment by "rumors" support the price. Supply: overseas ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the supply peak may have passed. Demand: domestic demand decreased slightly, and blast furnace operating rate and profitability continued to decline. Inventory: steel mill inventory is low, and port inventory ended the 7 - week accumulation [12]. - **View**: Short - term range - bound. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore operates in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal leading the decline. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price [13]. - **View**: The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomic internal divergence in the Fed's meeting minutes, weak domestic terminal demand. Supply: production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises decreased. Demand: the weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Inventory: silicon - manganese inventory increased, and silicon - iron inventory decreased. Cost: cost support for both is fair [14]. - **View**: Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes and downstream demand [14]. 3.3 Variety Data Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: This week, the total inventory was 15054.65 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 264.73 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased, while that of Brazilian ore increased. Port trade ore inventory decreased, and daily port clearance volume increased [18]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 52.50 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, daily consumption decreased slightly, and hot metal daily output decreased [29]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability**: This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 82.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate decreased slightly, and the profitability rate decreased [34]. Coal and Coke - **Coke Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 880.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 28.32 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises increased, that of 247 steel mills was basically unchanged, and that of 4 ports decreased [46]. - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2609.5 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.23 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased, that of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and that of 5 ports decreased [55]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the daily coke output decreased slightly. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [64][65]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased week - on - week, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the silicon - iron spot price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [81]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the total port inventory was 426.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.9 million tons. The inventory in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port both decreased [88]. - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased [91][94][99]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21, the silicon - manganese inventory increased week - on - week, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased week - on - week. The average available days of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron inventory in November increased month - on - month [103][106]. - **Import/Production**: In October, the import of manganese ore increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron also increased month - on - month [109]. - **Steel Mill Purchase Price**: In November, the purchase price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese remained unchanged month - on - month, and that for silicon - iron increased month - on - month [112].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss of $184.5 million, or $0.46 per share, compared to a net loss of $20.5 million, or $0.06 per share for the same period in 2024 [25] - Free cash flow for Q3 2025 was negative $11.5 million, compared to negative $5.9 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher environmental, personnel, and corporate payments [28][29] - The company has approximately $165 million of liquidity, with potential additional proceeds from in-the-money warrants exceeding $50 million [6][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exploration and evaluation expenses decreased to $9.6 million in Q3 2025 from $11.8 million in Q3 2024, while general and administrative expenses increased to $45.7 million from $8.1 million in the same period [26] - The revenue mix is expected to be 45% from nickel products, 28% from manganese, 17% from copper, and 9% from cobalt during steady-state production [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company highlighted that America is critically dependent on foreign sources for metals, with imports for manganese, cobalt, and nickel at roughly 100% [7][8] - The U.S. government is taking steps to address vulnerabilities in rare earths and base metals, indicating a strategic shift towards domestic resource development [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a U.S. pivot aimed at achieving a commercial recovery permit by 2027, with ongoing discussions with NOAA and the U.S. government [5][6] - The strategy includes building a comprehensive ecosystem around the nodule resource, emphasizing partnerships and technological advancements [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the U.S. pivot leading to a commercial recovery permit and highlighted the importance of national security and energy independence [5][8] - The company is optimistic about its regulatory path and the potential for significant cash inflows from warrant exercises [6][33] Other Important Information - The company has achieved several industry firsts, including the first SEC-compliant resource statements and the first production of nodule-derived manganese sulfate [13][18] - The pre-feasibility study indicates a combined project net present value of $23.6 billion, with a clear path to first production [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on potential incoming cash from warrants - Management confirmed that total potential proceeds from warrants could exceed $432 million, with a strong liquidity position of $165 million [33] Question: Financial benefits from the Hidden Gem vessel's deployment to Japan - Management clarified that TMC will receive financial benefits from the contract between Allseas and the foundation funding the program, indicating it is not pro bono work [34] Question: Streamlining of NOAA's regulation process - Management explained that the combination of exploration and commercial recovery licenses is intended to facilitate the regulatory process, as TMC already has a prepared application for a commercial recovery permit [36][37] Question: Timing of exploration and production permit grants - Management indicated that the timeline for the exploration permit is aligned with the anticipated production start date of Q4 2027, regardless of whether the permits are granted sequentially [41][42]

Financial Highlights - TMC has $165 million in liquidity as of November 13, 2025, excluding in-the-money warrants [8] - Potential proceeds from Class A and Class C warrants that are in-the-money today is approximately $54 million [14] - Q3 2025 operating loss was $55.3 million, compared to $19.9 million in Q3 2024 [84] - The company's cash balance increased mainly due to proceeds from warrants and stock options, with $7.1 million in proceeds in Q3 2025 and $12.8 million in October 2025 [11, 12] Resource and Production - A billion-tonne resource could supply the US with manganese for 330 years, cobalt for 95 years, nickel for 210 years, and copper for 5 years [18, 20] - The company estimates first production in Q4 2027 [65] - The PFS NPV is $5.5 billion, and the IA NPV is $18.1 billion, resulting in a combined NPV of $23.6 billion [62, 67] - The Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) projects revenue of $595 per dry tonne of nodules, with an EBITDA of $254 per dry tonne (43% margin) [72, 73] Regulatory and Strategic - The US depends entirely on imports for primary nickel, manganese, and cobalt, and 45% for copper [15, 16] - NOAA is streamlining the review of applications for Exploration Licenses (ELs) and Commercial Recovery Permits (CRPs) [32] - The United States and Japan will collaborate on developing rare earth minerals from Japan's seafloor [25]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi government is launching a two-year special action plan to integrate mining rights and manage "small, scattered, and chaotic" enterprises, aiming to promote high-quality development in the mining sector, particularly in non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Mining Rights Integration - The integration will focus on mines that do not meet safety production requirements and have unreasonable development layouts, targeting key metal minerals such as lead, zinc, tin, antimony, tungsten, manganese, and gold [2]. - By the end of 2027, the number of mining rights in Guangxi is expected to decrease from 2,612 to below 1,800, with the proportion of large and medium-sized mines increasing from 61% to over 80% [2]. Group 2: Management of "Small, Scattered, and Chaotic" Enterprises - The plan includes measures such as closure, restructuring, and upgrading of small enterprises, aiming to eliminate those that should be shut down within 3 to 5 months [2]. - By the end of 2027, the goal is to have comprehensive standardization in the production management of mineral processing, smelting, and processing enterprises, increasing the proportion of large and medium-sized enterprises from 43% to 60% [2]. Group 3: Support and Incentives - Guangxi will support enterprises in updating equipment, digital transformation, green low-carbon modifications, product innovation, and upgrading processes and equipment to promote high-end, intelligent, green, large-scale, and park-based development [3]. - A "green channel" for multi-departmental collaborative approval services will be established, and mining rights in integrated areas will be temporarily suspended from transfer and other changes until integration is completed [3].

Core Insights - The "Deep Sea Mineral Resources Development Forum" held during the 2025 China International Mining Conference focused on global collaboration for the scientific exploration, technological innovation, and green governance of deep-sea resources [1] Group 1: Deep-Sea Resource Overview - The deep sea contains rich mineral resources, including manganese, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth metals, which are considered strategic minerals [1] - Countries worldwide are actively engaging in the development of deep-sea mineral resources [1] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the international seabed area and its resources are the common heritage of mankind, managed by the International Seabed Authority [1] - The International Seabed Authority has established exploration regulations for polymetallic nodules, polymetallic sulphides, and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts, and is developing comprehensive regulations for all resources [1] Group 3: China's Role and Initiatives - China has been a witness, participant, and contributor to the development of international deep-sea initiatives, actively supporting the sustainable development of deep-sea mineral resources [2] - The National Deep Sea Base Management Center is enhancing the understanding of deep-sea resources and environments, promoting the construction of deep-sea equipment systems, and aims to collaborate on green development technologies [2] Group 4: Environmental Considerations - The importance of conducting comprehensive environmental impact assessments before, during, and after mining activities is emphasized to protect rare seabed habitats [2] - The forum highlighted the need to prevent unauthorized deep-sea mineral resource extraction activities and to utilize the China-International Seabed Authority Joint Training and Research Center to cultivate talent for developing countries in global ocean governance [2] Group 5: Forum Structure - The forum was co-hosted by the China Ocean Development Foundation, the National Deep Sea Base Management Center, and the National Ocean Technology Center, featuring presentations from ten domestic and international experts on various topics related to deep-sea mineral resources [3]

Core Argument - The article emphasizes that the U.S. cannot achieve mineral independence solely through domestic mining efforts, highlighting the structural challenges in the supply chain for critical minerals essential for modern economy and national security [3][4][13]. Domestic Supply Challenges - Even in the most optimistic growth scenarios, by 2035, U.S. domestic production will only meet the projected demand for zinc and molybdenum, while significant reliance on imports will remain for copper, graphite, lithium, silver, nickel, and manganese [3][4]. - The U.S. is projected to have a 62% dependency on copper imports and a staggering 282% shortfall in lithium supply by 2035, indicating fundamental flaws in a purely domestic mining strategy [3][4]. - Geological limitations and high production costs hinder the U.S. from becoming self-sufficient in critical minerals, with existing copper production costs exceeding the global average by 8% [3][4][6]. Processing and Refining Bottlenecks - The U.S. faces significant capacity gaps in the midstream processing of minerals, particularly in copper smelting, where competition from China has severely impacted Western firms' profitability [4][6]. - Current U.S. smelting capacity is insufficient to process all domestically mined ores, necessitating reliance on foreign processing, particularly in China [6][7]. Policy and Strategic Recommendations - The article advocates for a mixed strategy combining "onshoring" and "friendshoring" to build a resilient and diversified global supply chain for critical minerals [8][9]. - A coherent national strategy is essential, moving beyond tariffs and fragmented subsidies to establish a public-private partnership that fosters innovation and competitiveness in the mining sector [11][12]. - The report suggests implementing a price guarantee mechanism, such as "Contract for Difference," to provide price certainty for high-cost domestic mining projects, thereby attracting private investment [12]. Priority Minerals and International Cooperation - Nickel and cobalt are identified as critical for high-performance batteries, with Australia and Canada being reliable partners for supply [10]. - Lithium, graphite, and manganese are highlighted as essential materials for battery manufacturing, necessitating strategic partnerships with countries like Australia, Canada, and those in South America [14]. - The U.S. must establish stable supply relationships with traditional silver-producing countries in Latin America to meet the increasing demand from the solar industry [14].