【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.11.24 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.11.21 | | 2025.11.14 价格变动 涨跌幅 | | 2025.11.21 | 2025.11.14 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3057 | 3053 | 0.13% 4 | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3220 | 3190 | 30 | 0.94% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2601 | 327 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss of $184.5 million, or $0.46 per share, compared to a net loss of $20.5 million, or $0.06 per share for the same period in 2024 [25] - Free cash flow for Q3 2025 was negative $11.5 million, compared to negative $5.9 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher environmental, personnel, and corporate payments [28][29] - The company has approximately $165 million of liquidity, with potential additional proceeds from in-the-money warrants exceeding $50 million [6][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exploration and evaluation expenses decreased to $9.6 million in Q3 2025 from $11.8 million in Q3 2024, while general and administrative expenses increased to $45.7 million from $8.1 million in the same period [26] - The revenue mix is expected to be 45% from nickel products, 28% from manganese, 17% from copper, and 9% from cobalt during steady-state production [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company highlighted that America is critically dependent on foreign sources for metals, with imports for manganese, cobalt, and nickel at roughly 100% [7][8] - The U.S. government is taking steps to address vulnerabilities in rare earths and base metals, indicating a strategic shift towards domestic resource development [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a U.S. pivot aimed at achieving a commercial recovery permit by 2027, with ongoing discussions with NOAA and the U.S. government [5][6] - The strategy includes building a comprehensive ecosystem around the nodule resource, emphasizing partnerships and technological advancements [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the U.S. pivot leading to a commercial recovery permit and highlighted the importance of national security and energy independence [5][8] - The company is optimistic about its regulatory path and the potential for significant cash inflows from warrant exercises [6][33] Other Important Information - The company has achieved several industry firsts, including the first SEC-compliant resource statements and the first production of nodule-derived manganese sulfate [13][18] - The pre-feasibility study indicates a combined project net present value of $23.6 billion, with a clear path to first production [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on potential incoming cash from warrants - Management confirmed that total potential proceeds from warrants could exceed $432 million, with a strong liquidity position of $165 million [33] Question: Financial benefits from the Hidden Gem vessel's deployment to Japan - Management clarified that TMC will receive financial benefits from the contract between Allseas and the foundation funding the program, indicating it is not pro bono work [34] Question: Streamlining of NOAA's regulation process - Management explained that the combination of exploration and commercial recovery licenses is intended to facilitate the regulatory process, as TMC already has a prepared application for a commercial recovery permit [36][37] Question: Timing of exploration and production permit grants - Management indicated that the timeline for the exploration permit is aligned with the anticipated production start date of Q4 2027, regardless of whether the permits are granted sequentially [41][42]

The Metals Company (Nasdaq: TMC) – Unlocking the World's Largest Undeveloped Resource of Metals for Energy, Defense, Manufacturing and Infrastructure November 13, 2025 25 45 70 0 145 255 253 226 83 169 170 174 249 50 0 115 175 210 Master Headline | Arial 25, Bold Headline | Arial 21, Bold BLUE SUBHEAD | Arial 12, all caps Subhead | Arial 16, Bold Body Copy | Arial 14 For Bullets, use - Individualized for RonKevin.Mansia@notified.com •‧•‧‧‧••‧•‧‧••‧‧‧‧•‧ 2 Nasdaq: TMC Forward looking statements. This present ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi government is launching a two-year special action plan to integrate mining rights and manage "small, scattered, and chaotic" enterprises, aiming to promote high-quality development in the mining sector, particularly in non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Mining Rights Integration - The integration will focus on mines that do not meet safety production requirements and have unreasonable development layouts, targeting key metal minerals such as lead, zinc, tin, antimony, tungsten, manganese, and gold [2]. - By the end of 2027, the number of mining rights in Guangxi is expected to decrease from 2,612 to below 1,800, with the proportion of large and medium-sized mines increasing from 61% to over 80% [2]. Group 2: Management of "Small, Scattered, and Chaotic" Enterprises - The plan includes measures such as closure, restructuring, and upgrading of small enterprises, aiming to eliminate those that should be shut down within 3 to 5 months [2]. - By the end of 2027, the goal is to have comprehensive standardization in the production management of mineral processing, smelting, and processing enterprises, increasing the proportion of large and medium-sized enterprises from 43% to 60% [2]. Group 3: Support and Incentives - Guangxi will support enterprises in updating equipment, digital transformation, green low-carbon modifications, product innovation, and upgrading processes and equipment to promote high-end, intelligent, green, large-scale, and park-based development [3]. - A "green channel" for multi-departmental collaborative approval services will be established, and mining rights in integrated areas will be temporarily suspended from transfer and other changes until integration is completed [3].

Core Insights - The "Deep Sea Mineral Resources Development Forum" held during the 2025 China International Mining Conference focused on global collaboration for the scientific exploration, technological innovation, and green governance of deep-sea resources [1] Group 1: Deep-Sea Resource Overview - The deep sea contains rich mineral resources, including manganese, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth metals, which are considered strategic minerals [1] - Countries worldwide are actively engaging in the development of deep-sea mineral resources [1] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the international seabed area and its resources are the common heritage of mankind, managed by the International Seabed Authority [1] - The International Seabed Authority has established exploration regulations for polymetallic nodules, polymetallic sulphides, and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts, and is developing comprehensive regulations for all resources [1] Group 3: China's Role and Initiatives - China has been a witness, participant, and contributor to the development of international deep-sea initiatives, actively supporting the sustainable development of deep-sea mineral resources [2] - The National Deep Sea Base Management Center is enhancing the understanding of deep-sea resources and environments, promoting the construction of deep-sea equipment systems, and aims to collaborate on green development technologies [2] Group 4: Environmental Considerations - The importance of conducting comprehensive environmental impact assessments before, during, and after mining activities is emphasized to protect rare seabed habitats [2] - The forum highlighted the need to prevent unauthorized deep-sea mineral resource extraction activities and to utilize the China-International Seabed Authority Joint Training and Research Center to cultivate talent for developing countries in global ocean governance [2] Group 5: Forum Structure - The forum was co-hosted by the China Ocean Development Foundation, the National Deep Sea Base Management Center, and the National Ocean Technology Center, featuring presentations from ten domestic and international experts on various topics related to deep-sea mineral resources [3]

Core Argument - The article emphasizes that the U.S. cannot achieve mineral independence solely through domestic mining efforts, highlighting the structural challenges in the supply chain for critical minerals essential for modern economy and national security [3][4][13]. Domestic Supply Challenges - Even in the most optimistic growth scenarios, by 2035, U.S. domestic production will only meet the projected demand for zinc and molybdenum, while significant reliance on imports will remain for copper, graphite, lithium, silver, nickel, and manganese [3][4]. - The U.S. is projected to have a 62% dependency on copper imports and a staggering 282% shortfall in lithium supply by 2035, indicating fundamental flaws in a purely domestic mining strategy [3][4]. - Geological limitations and high production costs hinder the U.S. from becoming self-sufficient in critical minerals, with existing copper production costs exceeding the global average by 8% [3][4][6]. Processing and Refining Bottlenecks - The U.S. faces significant capacity gaps in the midstream processing of minerals, particularly in copper smelting, where competition from China has severely impacted Western firms' profitability [4][6]. - Current U.S. smelting capacity is insufficient to process all domestically mined ores, necessitating reliance on foreign processing, particularly in China [6][7]. Policy and Strategic Recommendations - The article advocates for a mixed strategy combining "onshoring" and "friendshoring" to build a resilient and diversified global supply chain for critical minerals [8][9]. - A coherent national strategy is essential, moving beyond tariffs and fragmented subsidies to establish a public-private partnership that fosters innovation and competitiveness in the mining sector [11][12]. - The report suggests implementing a price guarantee mechanism, such as "Contract for Difference," to provide price certainty for high-cost domestic mining projects, thereby attracting private investment [12]. Priority Minerals and International Cooperation - Nickel and cobalt are identified as critical for high-performance batteries, with Australia and Canada being reliable partners for supply [10]. - Lithium, graphite, and manganese are highlighted as essential materials for battery manufacturing, necessitating strategic partnerships with countries like Australia, Canada, and those in South America [14]. - The U.S. must establish stable supply relationships with traditional silver-producing countries in Latin America to meet the increasing demand from the solar industry [14].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangfeng Electronics (300666) focuses on ultra-pure materials and sputtering targets for large-scale integrated circuit manufacturing, achieving significant technological breakthroughs and establishing a production base with complete independent intellectual property rights [1] Group 1: Company Achievements - Jiangfeng Electronics has industrialized a full range of advanced targets including ultra-pure aluminum, titanium, tantalum, copper, manganese, and cobalt, reaching globally leading processes and exporting extensively [1] - The company has become a major supplier for many internationally renowned wafer manufacturing enterprises, ensuring China's chip industry meets the demand for ultra-pure materials and transforming the reliance on imports into a competitive advantage [1] Group 2: Strategic Contributions - Jiangfeng Electronics has undertaken multiple national strategic development research and industrialization projects, including the National 02 Major Special Project and the National 863 Major Special Project, promoting the localization of key materials [1] - The company is actively developing new technologies to address shortcomings and has laid out plans in the semiconductor precision components sector, producing over 40,000 product types and contributing significantly to the localization of components for process equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is focusing on the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry, particularly key metals, by establishing a comprehensive pilot zone in Nandan County to set a benchmark for the region's industrial growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Planning - The meeting led by Chen Gang emphasized the importance of a "1+2+8" planning system for the non-ferrous metal industry, which includes a five-year development plan and specific implementation schemes [1]. - A comprehensive pilot zone for key metal development in Nandan County is to be established, encouraging innovative practices to serve as a model for the region [1][2]. - The formation of a state-owned enterprise group for the development of key metals in Guangxi is planned, focusing on asset evaluation and optimizing the equity structure [1]. Group 2: Resource Advantages - Guangxi is recognized as a significant region for non-ferrous metals, with 108 identified mineral resources, including 25 metal and 59 non-metal minerals, ranking among the top ten in China [2]. - The Nandan County is located in a crucial multi-metal mineral belt, known for its rich key metal resources, and is the largest lead-zinc production base globally [2]. Group 3: Recent Developments - Recent actions include targeted investment attraction for the key metal industry and discussions on the high-quality planning of the comprehensive pilot zone [3]. - The approval of the comprehensive pilot zone plan marks a significant step towards its implementation, aligning with national development strategies [3].

Core Insights - Africa is poised to lead a global revolution in critical minerals, with demand expected to more than double by 2040, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) [1] - The continent's rich resources and industrial potential position it to transition from a raw material supplier to a strategic industrial partner, particularly in the context of energy transition and digital economy [1] Industry Overview - Critical minerals are essential for electric vehicles, solar panels, smartphones, and data centers, but supply-demand imbalances are intensifying, making stable supply chains a strategic focus for countries [1] - Africa holds the largest production bases for cobalt, copper, platinum group metals, and manganese, along with significant lithium and rare earth reserves, marking a pivotal moment for the continent to influence the new industrial era [1] Economic Opportunities - Investment in mining and processing can generate GDP growth, fiscal revenue, and create numerous jobs and regional infrastructure [1] - Unlike traditional mining economies, African nations are set to become key partners in the construction of global clean energy and digital infrastructure [1] Regional Cooperation and Strategy - To leverage its advantages in the value chain, Africa must enhance credibility and stability to attract investment, as exemplified by Namibia [2] - Strengthening regional cooperation is crucial, with initiatives like the "battery minerals corridor" between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia aligning cobalt and copper mining with regional processing capabilities [2] - Building global alliances is also important, as seen in Morocco's collaboration with the EU and China to become a center for phosphate battery materials [2] - The current moment is critical for Africa, necessitating a shift from fragmented national actions to a unified approach under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework [2]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight upward trend in certain products, driven by rising raw material costs and positive market sentiment towards future demand [1][3][4][6]. Price Trends - As of Friday, the price for 201J2/2B 1.0 macro steel coil is reported at 7300 CNY/ton, and 201J1/2B 1.0 at 8000 CNY/ton, both showing an increase of 100 CNY/ton compared to the end of July [1]. - The price for 201J1 five-inch hot-rolled steel has risen to 7650 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the end of July [1]. Raw Material Costs - Continuous increases in raw material prices are providing cost support, with copper prices rising to 79350 CNY/ton, an increase of 500 CNY/ton from the previous week [3]. - The cost of 201J2 private cold-rolled steel has increased by 89 CNY/ton compared to the previous week, indicating stronger cost support [3]. Inventory Levels - In the Wuxi market, the inventory of 200 series steel has decreased by 0.28 million tons to 62,000 tons, with cold-rolled inventory decreasing by 0.41 million tons and hot-rolled inventory increasing by 0.13 million tons [4]. Market Sentiment and Demand - The initial week saw a significant increase in futures prices, leading to a corresponding rise in spot market prices, with traders raising prices by 50-100 CNY/ton [6]. - As the week progressed, market sentiment shifted, leading to price reductions of 30-50 CNY/ton as traders sought to increase sales volume, resulting in a decrease in overall transaction volume [6]. - The market remains optimistic about the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, with expectations for increased downstream demand [6]. Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with 201J2/J5 cold-rolled steel projected to fluctuate between 7000-7500 CNY/ton [6].