肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 此外，从美联储较为倚重的失业率指标来看，7月的最新值为4.2%，已经连续三个月维持不变，和2020 年4月14.8%的高点相比，下降了10.6个百分点，并且整体趋势平缓。就历史数据而言，目前美国的失业 率约维持在2017年7月~2019年1月的水平区间。 有意思的是，如果继续做个历史数据的对比，或者也可以理解白宫对美联储的不满。就以同期数据为 例，2017年7月~2019年1月期间，美国的PCE为1.5%至1.4%之间，当时美国联邦基金利率的区间分别为 1%~1.25%、2.25%~2.5%。或许在白宫看来，既然美联储公布了货币政策的工具箱，那么当前的PCE和 失业率指标，已足以证明美联储应该尽快降息。 可是，经济常识告诉我们，物价冲击具有延迟性，如果美国不能与贸易伙伴达成一致性关税，那么美国 通胀失控的风险并不能完全排除，所以美联储的观望也可以理解。毕竟，制约美联储降息"踟蹰不前"的 最大变量就是关税冲击对美国物价的不确定性。这在历史上也并非无例可循。 但当前问题的关键在于，美联储的高利率与美国政府居高不下利息支出形成了悖论。目前，美国国债已 经走到了"技 ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market has shifted towards risk-on, with high-risk assets rebounding significantly despite previous economic concerns highlighted by a poor employment report [1][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index recorded its largest weekly gain in over a month, while high-yield corporate bond spreads narrowed for five consecutive days, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [1][7] - Strong corporate earnings and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence are driving this risk-on sentiment, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 10% growth in earnings for the second quarter, significantly higher than prior forecasts [8] Group 2 - Despite the stock market's rally, the U.S. Treasury market remains cautious, with the 10-year Treasury yield still below levels seen before the employment report, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [3][4] - The divergence between the optimistic stock and corporate bond markets and the cautious Treasury market is becoming a focal point of interest on Wall Street [3][10] - Analysts suggest that the high valuations in the stock market, with a price-to-earnings ratio close to 23, indicate elevated risk levels, reminiscent of the tech bubble era [8][6] Group 3 - The current economic indicators, such as rising unemployment claims and increased consumer inflation expectations, contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [9][10] - There is a belief among some analysts that the bond market's signals should be trusted over the seemingly optimistic high-yield corporate bond indicators, especially in the later stages of the economic expansion cycle [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the extreme market volatility faced by Wall Street professionals in the post-Trump era, emphasizing the significant impact of political risks on investment strategies [1][2][3] Group 1: Daily Routine of Hedge Fund Managers - Hedge fund managers start their day by checking the latest tariffs imposed by Trump, which can drastically affect market positions [2][12] - The unpredictability of Trump's tweets and announcements creates a challenging environment for portfolio management, often leading to abrupt market movements [3][4][5] - Traditional fundamental analysis and risk management frameworks are being redefined due to the constant political news cycle [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Challenges - Market participants experience unprecedented trading difficulties, with significant fluctuations in futures and stock prices based on Trump's statements [6][8][10] - The volatility is illustrated by instances where futures dropped or surged dramatically within minutes following Trump's tweets [7][9][21] - The article notes that even corporate earnings calls are disrupted by political events, highlighting the intertwining of politics and finance [1][4][5] Group 3: Broader Market Context - The article reflects on the broader sentiment among investors, with discussions about the irrationality of the current market environment and the challenges of investing under such conditions [11][22][23] - There is a sense of nostalgia for the previous administration, where market conditions were perceived as more stable and predictable [11][18]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound after two days of decline, with major indices recovering losses from the previous week, primarily due to Trump's increasing influence over Federal Reserve personnel and market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - In the past 24 hours, a total of 83,048 individuals were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $212 million, including $69.9 million from long positions and $142 million from short positions [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates an 80% probability of interest rate cuts following the impact of the recent non-farm payroll data, although expert opinions may quickly reverse [2] - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations between $104,000 and $115,500, with potential upward movement towards $116,411 [2] - Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded strongly, reaching $3,725, and is at a critical resistance level; a breakthrough could confirm a reversal [4] Group 3 - The dominance of Bitcoin is declining, while Ethereum and altcoins are expected to rise, with altcoins following Ethereum's lead [6] - Recent trading activity has shown significant profits, with one asset, $LIZARD, surging to a market value of $12 million, indicating a potential for substantial future gains [6]

Group 1 - The Senate has passed President Trump's $5 trillion debt ceiling increase proposal, but there are concerns about its approval in the House of Representatives [1] - If the U.S. government fails to meet its debt obligations, it could severely undermine investor confidence in the largest bond market globally, potentially halving U.S. Treasury prices and disrupting global financial markets [1] - Market participants believe that the U.S. has the ability to print money to cover any shortfalls, reducing concerns about the political standoff affecting the country's debt repayment capacity [1] Group 2 - As of now, the Treasury Department has sufficient buffer time before the next increase, with the "X date" estimated to be around September 2 by strategist Jay Barry and mid-September by Ian Lyngen [1] - The fiscal account balance currently stands at $304.841 billion, slightly above expectations, providing Congress with more time to negotiate [1] - In June, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 0.191 percentage points due to a general rise in bond prices, although there are still market concerns [2] - Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that the borrowing capacity for U.S. debt may peak in August, earlier than most optimistic forecasts [2] - Foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries has increased from $8.3 trillion last summer to $9.013 trillion, accounting for 31.5% of the total [2]

Key Points - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,358 per ounce, a 4.9% increase, and domestic AU9999 gold at 776 yuan per gram, up 4.0% week-on-week [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to fluctuating US-EU tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks, allowing gold to regain the $3,300 level [1] - The recent tariff easing has led to a correction in the previously overheated gold market, with gold experiencing a maximum pullback of 8-10% from its peak of $3,500 [1] Group 1 - The easing of tariff tensions has been largely priced into gold, suggesting that the market has adjusted to the recent developments [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the US economy, exacerbated by previous tariff disputes, may continue to challenge economic stability despite tariff reductions [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, despite delays, are expected to benefit gold as the market expects three rate cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - The weakening of US dollar credibility due to rising debt levels and high interest costs on government debt is driving central banks to increase gold purchases [2] - Global demand for gold ETFs has surged, with Q1 2025 demand nearly matching the record $111 billion set in Q4 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins remains robust, reaching 325 tons, which is 15% higher than the five-year quarterly average, with China being a key growth driver in this segment [2] Group 3 - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the upcoming week include US Q1 GDP and April PCE data, as well as any changes in tariff policies [3]

以下文章来源于东方财富Choice数据 ，作者Choice数据 东方财富Choice数据 . Choice数据是东方财富旗下智能金融数据品牌，是国内领先的金融数据服务商。我们致力于为金融投资机构、学术研究机构、政务监管、媒体和专业投资 者提供金融投资领域多场景解决方案，以及更高效、更精准的投资决策依据。 穆迪下调美国信用评级后，美国失去了最后一家国际评级机构 的"3A评级"。自此，美债的走向就牵动着整个市场。 5月22日凌晨，20年期美债 拍卖令市场大失所望，最终得标利率为5.047%，这是20年期美债拍卖的收益率第二次突破5%大关。受此 影响，美国遭遇"股债汇三杀"。 崩了！美国"股债汇三杀" 当晚，道指收盘跌超800点，大跌1.91%；标普500指数、纳指均跌 超1%。 特斯拉、苹果跌超2%，微软、亚马逊、英伟达跌逾 1%，谷歌涨2.87%。 | ▽ 行情 FICC 选股 | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 全球 | 港股 美股 | 基金 | 商品 分类 | | 道琼斯 | | 纳斯达克 | | 标普500 | | 41860.44 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent US-China trade negotiations have reached significant consensus, leading to short-term optimism in the market, with US stock futures rising and both the US dollar and offshore RMB strengthening [1][2][5] - The offshore RMB appreciated nearly 200 points, indicating a positive market reaction to the trade talks [5] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose over 1% during the Asia-Pacific trading session, reflecting increased risk appetite among investors [2] Group 2 - There is a notable decline in risk aversion, as evidenced by a 3.6 basis point increase in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds and a drop of over $40 in gold prices [6] - Market participants are awaiting the details of the joint statement expected on May 12, which will be crucial for sustaining the current optimism [1] - Analysts express caution, suggesting that while there is a tendency for risk-taking, confidence may remain fragile until specific details from the negotiations are disclosed [1]