丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 公司研究丨点评报告丨三峡水利（600116.SH） [Table_Title] 来水偏枯限制自发电量，多重因素压制业绩表现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年上半年，受来水偏枯影响公司自发水电上网电量同比减少 23.05%。受高毛利的自发电 占比下降以及购售电价差或有所收窄的共同影响，2025 年上半年公司电力业务实现营业利润 1.71 亿元，同比下降 44.95%。公司综合能源板块盈利延续稳健增长，营业利润同比增长 21.82%；锰业及贸易业务上半年亏损 0.48 亿元，但较去年同期减亏 0.16 亿元。综合来看，虽 然公司综合能源业务保持稳健增长、锰业及贸易业务同比减亏，但由于电力主业承压、多重因 素共同拖累业绩表现，公司 2025 年上半年实现归母净利润 0.48 亿元，同比减少 79.07%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Summa ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 5.224 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 105 million yuan, a decrease of 28.9% [1] - In Q2 2025, the total revenue was 2.473 billion yuan, up 9.04% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 20.13% to 159 million yuan [1] - The gross margin decreased to 7.42%, down 9.28% year-on-year, and the net margin was 2.28%, a decline of 27.14% [1] - The company’s accounts receivable accounted for 211.1% of the latest annual net profit, indicating a significant amount of outstanding payments [1][4] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The operating cash flow per share dropped to 0.02 yuan, a decrease of 91.3% year-on-year, reflecting cash flow challenges [1] - The company’s total financial expenses increased by 636.3%, primarily due to a decline in foreign exchange gains from yen loans [3] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities decreased by 91.36%, attributed to adjustments in salary payment timing and settling due payables [3] Business Strategy and Operations - The company focuses on its core business of urban gas supply while actively exploring new sectors such as hydrogen energy and smart gas [7] - The company has initiated 41 integrated energy projects, including distributed energy and photovoltaic projects, enhancing operational synergies [9] - The company is currently in the research and market survey phase for hydrogen energy applications, leveraging local industrial by-products [8] Dividend Policy - The company has disclosed a three-year dividend plan, committing to distribute at least 30% of the distributable profits in cash after reserving for statutory surplus [11] - The company plans to implement mid-term dividends starting from 2024, with future distributions subject to financial conditions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chongqing Gas, is focusing on its core business in urban gas while actively exploring new business areas such as hydrogen energy and integrated energy solutions [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of August 1, 2025, Chongqing Gas's stock closed at 5.73 yuan, down 1.55% from the previous week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 8.945 billion yuan, ranking 7th in the gas sector and 1901st among A-shares [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has a "1+2+N" strategy, focusing on urban gas as its core business while developing dual comprehensive services [2][4]. - The company sources its gas primarily from PetroChina and Sinopec pipelines [2]. Group 3: Hydrogen Energy Development - In the hydrogen energy sector, the company is leveraging local industrial by-product hydrogen resources and is currently in the preliminary research and market survey phase [2][4]. Group 4: Integrated Energy Business - The integrated energy business includes distributed natural gas energy, distributed photovoltaics, and transportation charging, with 41 projects currently in operation [2][4]. - The company has enhanced synergies between its main business and specialized companies, identifying potential markets for further development [2]. Group 5: Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company's capital expenditures are primarily directed towards supply security, technical upgrades, safety management, and information technology [3]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, committing to a cash dividend of at least 30% of the distributable profits each year, with the first mid-term dividend expected in 2024 [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The urban gas industry is undergoing a transformation towards comprehensive energy services, embracing smart technologies and exploring international expansion opportunities, driven by the dual carbon goals and market reforms in China [1][5][9]. Industry Overview - The urban gas industry in China has evolved significantly since the "West-East Gas Pipeline" project in 2004, transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to a period of deep adjustment due to market reforms and increased competition [1][7]. - The industry is now characterized by a fragmented structure with major players and numerous small enterprises, facing challenges such as aging infrastructure and intensified competition from electrification [1][7]. Transition to Comprehensive Energy Services - Urban gas companies are shifting from traditional gas sales to becoming comprehensive energy service providers, integrating electricity, gas, heat, and renewable energy sources [4][5]. - New opportunities are emerging under the dual carbon goals, prompting companies to innovate and adapt their business models to include energy efficiency and carbon reduction strategies [3][9]. Case Study: Dunhuang Textile - Dunhuang Textile has successfully reduced energy costs by 14% through energy efficiency upgrades and the implementation of a comprehensive energy management system, showcasing the potential benefits of transitioning to a comprehensive energy model [3][12]. - The company’s experience reflects a broader trend in the industry where traditional high-energy-consuming sectors are seeking to lower costs and improve competitiveness through integrated energy solutions [3][12]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The demand for natural gas is declining, with a reported 1.3% year-on-year decrease in consumption from January to May, leading to financial pressures on urban gas companies [7][8]. - Companies are facing challenges from price fluctuations and regulatory constraints, which complicate their ability to maintain profitability in the face of rising operational costs [7][8]. Policy and Technological Support - Government policies are increasingly focused on establishing zero-carbon parks and promoting renewable energy integration, which is expected to drive the growth of comprehensive energy services [9][10]. - Technological advancements in renewable energy and energy management systems are reducing costs and enhancing the economic viability of comprehensive energy solutions [10][16]. Business Model Innovation - Urban gas companies are exploring different business models, including fixed-price and sharing models, to enhance profitability and align interests with customers [15][16]. - The shift towards a service-oriented approach requires companies to rethink their operational strategies, focusing on customer needs and collaborative value creation [15][16]. Future Outlook - The comprehensive energy market presents significant growth potential, particularly in energy efficiency retrofits and carbon reduction investments, estimated to be in the range of $0.7 trillion to $2.7 trillion for industrial sectors [14]. - As the market evolves, urban gas companies will need to enhance their operational and trading capabilities to remain competitive in the integrated energy landscape [16].

Core Insights - The urban gas industry is undergoing a transformation from resource-driven to service-oriented, driven by the breaking of licensing restrictions on gas franchise operations and the push towards comprehensive energy services under the "dual carbon" goals [1][2][7] Industry Overview - The urban gas sector in China has evolved significantly since the "West-to-East Gas Transmission" project in 2004, leading to a fragmented market dominated by a few large companies and thousands of smaller firms [1] - The industry is currently facing challenges due to market reforms, increased safety regulations, and competition from electrification [1][2] Transition to Comprehensive Energy Services - Urban gas companies are shifting from traditional gas sales to becoming comprehensive energy service providers, integrating electricity, gas, heat, and renewable energy systems [6][12] - New opportunities are emerging as companies adapt to the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on energy efficiency and carbon reduction [2][5] Case Study: New Energy Solutions - New Energy has implemented energy-saving measures for clients, such as converting steam supply methods and installing rooftop solar panels, resulting in a 14% reduction in energy costs for a textile company [5][12] - The company plans to expand its energy efficiency initiatives to other industrial areas, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon energy solutions [5][12] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The demand for natural gas is declining, with a reported 1.3% decrease in consumption in early 2023, prompting companies to adjust their business models [8][10] - Urban gas companies are experiencing pressure from rising operational costs and market competition, leading to a decline in profit margins [10][11] Policy and Technological Support - Government policies are increasingly focused on zero-carbon initiatives, with a push for renewable energy integration and energy efficiency improvements [11][12] - Technological advancements in energy management, such as AI and big data, are being leveraged to optimize energy supply and demand [16][17] Business Model Innovations - Urban gas companies are exploring new business models, including fixed-price and sharing models, to enhance profitability and customer engagement [15][16] - The shift towards electricity as a core service is becoming a consensus in the industry, with companies developing integrated energy solutions [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8][66] Core Views - The company is a comprehensive energy platform under the jurisdiction of Guangzhou, focusing on stable growth and high dividends. It has established a synergistic energy industry system encompassing power generation, energy logistics, gas, renewable energy, energy storage, and energy finance [7][10] - The company has maintained stable growth in net profit, with a projected net profit of 1.732 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.73% [7][27] - The company has a diversified business model that effectively smooths out performance fluctuations, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 50% over the years [10][32] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 6.26 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 21.95 billion yuan [3] Financial Data - The company has a total share capital of 3,506.31 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.52% as of June 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025 are 49.168 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 1.849 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.74% [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 12, 10, and 9 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8][66] Business Overview - The company has a total installed capacity of 10.26 GW as of the end of 2024, with a mix of coal, gas, wind, and solar power generation [7] - The energy logistics segment accounted for over 50% of the company's revenue in 2024, highlighting its importance in the overall business model [17] Dividend Policy - The company has a history of 26 consecutive years of stable dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of 54.67% in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.21% [10][32] Growth Drivers - The company plans to increase its renewable energy capacity to 8 GW by the end of 2025, contributing to future revenue growth [7][47] - The gas segment is expected to see stable growth, with a projected gas sales volume of 2.166 billion cubic meters in 2024, up 26.18% year-on-year [54] Risk and Challenges - The company faces potential challenges from fluctuating electricity prices and rising coal and gas prices, which could impact profitability [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance operational quality and governance while navigating challenges in energy supply and market competition, with a focus on strategic transformation and sustainable development [1][2][3]. Group 1: 2024 Key Operational Indicators - The company achieved a sales volume of 14.246 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.94%, marking a historical high [1]. - The operating revenue for 2024 was 10.322 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.65% compared to 11.177 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million yuan, down 39.94% year-on-year [1]. - The asset-liability ratio increased to 55.37%, up 3.90 percentage points from the previous year [1]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Development - The company is committed to becoming a leading comprehensive energy listed company, focusing on transitioning from traditional energy reliance to a green and low-carbon model [2]. - The company has invested approximately 3 billion yuan in integrated energy projects, with a total storage operation scale of about 1.2 GWh [2][3]. - The company aims to enhance its core business quality and expand new business opportunities, particularly in large user development and energy management projects [2]. Group 3: Governance and Compliance - The board of directors held eight meetings during the reporting period, reviewing 59 proposals, including the annual profit distribution plan and the 2024 operational plan [3][4]. - The company received the "Best Practice Award" from the China Association of Listed Companies for its governance practices [4]. - The board has implemented a comprehensive information disclosure management system, achieving an A-class rating for three consecutive years from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4][5]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio from 10% to 30%, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share for 2024 [5]. - The total cash dividends distributed over the past three years have exceeded 1.838 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [5]. Group 5: Social Responsibility and ESG Initiatives - The company successfully met the electricity supply demands during extreme weather conditions, ensuring the supply of 1.86 million kW of load [6]. - The company published its first ESG report, highlighting its commitment to low-carbon development and social responsibility [7]. Group 6: Future Plans for 2025 - The company plans to continue optimizing resource allocation and enhancing risk management while focusing on strategic transformation and operational efficiency [8]. - The board will prioritize the development of core business and new business potentials to drive revenue growth and shareholder value [8].

Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing - The primary raw material for heating in Beijing is natural gas, with the main supplier being Beijing Gas Group Co., Ltd. The payment method is a prepaid card system, similar to residential natural gas purchases. The heating price is government-regulated, with a rigid pricing structure for residents and a subsidy policy that adjusts based on fuel price fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2: Energy Efficiency and Technological Upgrades - The company is focusing on energy-saving, green, and carbon-reduction technology upgrades. This includes the development of smart heating management systems, which enhance efficiency through data analysis and optimization of operations [3]. - The company is also engaged in comprehensive energy supply and cooling applications, with projects like the Zhongguancun Life Science Park Phase III and the Zhuxinzhuang Comprehensive Energy Utilization Center, which aim to diversify energy services and strengthen core competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Market Value Management - The company plans to enhance market value management through cash dividends, equity incentives, and mergers and acquisitions, focusing on value creation and improving the company's fundamentals [4]. - Strategies include effective communication with investors and timely information disclosure to boost investor confidence and company image [4]. Group 4: Competition and Future Development - Following the acquisition by Jingneng Group, the company is addressing potential competition by committing to resolve any conflicts within 60 months, ensuring compliance with legal standards [4]. - Future goals include exploring various renewable energy heating methods and expanding market presence both within and outside Beijing, targeting economically developed areas for better market efficiency [4].

Group 1: Supply and Pricing - The primary raw material for heating in Beijing is natural gas, with the main supplier being Beijing Gas Group Co., Ltd. The payment model is similar to a prepaid card system for residents [1] - The heating price in Beijing is government-regulated, with a rigid pricing structure for residential heating and a subsidy policy that adjusts based on fuel price fluctuations [2] Group 2: Energy Efficiency and Technology Upgrades - The company is enhancing energy efficiency through smart heating management, optimizing the entire heating system from sources to user terminals, and establishing a data-driven command center [2] - Ongoing projects include comprehensive energy applications, such as the Zhongguancun Life Science Park Phase III and the Zhuxinzhuang Comprehensive Energy Utilization Center, which aim to diversify energy services and strengthen core competitiveness [2] Group 3: Market Value Management - The company plans to utilize cash dividends, equity incentives, and mergers to enhance market value, focusing on value creation and improving the company's fundamentals [3] - Active communication with investors through various platforms is emphasized to convey positive signals and boost investor confidence [3] Group 4: Competition and Future Development - The company is addressing potential competition from subsidiaries of Jingneng Group, with a commitment to resolve any conflicts within 60 months of acquiring control [3] - Future goals include exploring various renewable energy heating methods, expanding market presence both within and outside Beijing, and leveraging capital platforms for financing [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Wujiang Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. received an "AAA" rating for its 2025 first phase medium-term notes, reflecting strong shareholder support and competitive advantages in the hydropower sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1990 and underwent several structural changes, with the current name adopted in 1999 [2] - The ownership structure includes 51% held by China Huadian Corporation and 49% by Guizhou Provincial Government [2] - As of March 2009, the registered capital of the company increased to 3.88 billion yuan [2] - The company has transitioned into a comprehensive energy enterprise, engaging in hydropower, thermal power, and renewable energy [2] - In 2023, the company achieved total operating revenue of 12.453 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Rating and Financial Analysis - The "AAA" rating reflects the company's strong operational capabilities, including significant installed capacity and favorable hydropower resources [1] - The rating agency noted concerns regarding the company's profitability being heavily influenced by water availability and coal prices, as well as a high level of financial leverage [1]