全球数据中心投资或达5800亿美元。 "多年来，外界一直强调电力在全球经济中的作用越来越大。如果说去年世界正在快速步入电力时代，那么今年，电力时代已经 到来了。"在近日发布的国际能源署（IEA）年度旗舰报告《2025年世界能源展望》（下称《展望》）中，IEA执行主任法提赫· 比罗尔如是表示。 今年《展望》基于当前政策情景（CPS）、声明政策情景（STEPS）、净零排放情景（NZE）三大模型，勾勒全球能源未来图 景。 在所有情景中，《展望》称，一个普遍趋势是未来几十年全球对能源服务的需求将持续增长，不仅仅在交通出行领域，供暖、 制冷、照明及其他家庭和工业用途的能源需求在增加，与此同时数据和人工智能相关服务的需求更是不容忽视。 由此，全球能源需求将从目前的654艾焦（EJ）增加到2035年的705艾焦，这一增幅大致相当于欧盟目前的能源需求。投资者也 在积极响应这一趋势。IEA数据显示，2025年，全球能源领域的投资总规模约为3.3万亿美元，较2024年增长2%，创历史新高。 在新高的背后，所有预测情景的核心都是电力需求的巨大增长。到2035年，在"当前政策"和"声明政策"情景下，电力需求将增 长约40%。 比罗尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China is on the verge of becoming the world's first "electric power empire," driven by advancements in technology and energy production, particularly in the context of AI development and energy consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Energy and Technology - The International Energy Agency predicts that the energy market is entering an "electric era" led by China, linking energy control to global influence [3]. - The future of industrial upgrades relies heavily on technology and AI, which require substantial electricity for operations, with AI training consuming significant energy [4][5]. - By 2030, global AI industry electricity consumption is expected to exceed 945 billion kilowatt-hours annually, highlighting the critical need for sufficient and cost-effective electricity [4]. Group 2: China's Energy Strategy - China is not a major oil producer, making the development of renewable energy essential for its future, aiming for electric power dominance [14][15]. - China's projected electricity generation in 2024 is expected to reach 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, significantly surpassing the United States' 4.8 trillion kilowatt-hours [17][18]. - China's advancements in renewable energy, such as solar and hydropower, contribute to its ability to produce electricity at lower costs, with average electricity costs around 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour [34][35]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Recent breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion and thorium-based molten salt reactors position China as a leader in safe and efficient energy production [22][26]. - These technologies could potentially provide energy for thousands of years, ensuring energy security and low costs for China [29][30]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The article argues that the low cost of electricity in China gives it a competitive edge in manufacturing and AI development, making it less vulnerable to energy shortages compared to the U.S. [60][61]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in electricity supply, with predictions of a 20% power shortfall by 2028, which could hinder its technological advancements [6][66]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to look beyond traditional tech sectors and consider opportunities in the electricity grid and power equipment, as these areas will be crucial for supporting the growing demand for energy in high-tech industries [78][79].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that energy issues are central to economic and national security due to immediate threats and long-term risks [1] - The energy landscape is increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical minerals [2] Group 1: Energy Security and Supply Chain Risks - The supply chain for critical minerals is highly concentrated, with a single country dominating the refining of 19 out of 20 strategic minerals, averaging a market share of about 70% [2] - Over half of the strategic minerals are subject to some form of export control as of November 2025, highlighting the urgent need to enhance resilience against weather-related risks and cyber threats [2] Group 2: Electricity Demand and Economic Impact - Electricity demand is projected to grow approximately 40% by 2035 in established and committed policy scenarios, and over 50% in net-zero scenarios by 2050 [3] - Data center investments are expected to reach $580 billion by 2025, surpassing global oil supply expenditures of $540 billion, indicating a significant shift in energy consumption patterns [3] Group 3: Shifts in Global Energy Demand - The center of global energy demand is shifting from China to emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia, with these regions increasingly shaping energy market dynamics [4] - From 2010 onwards, China accounted for over half of the global oil and gas demand growth, but this trend is expected to diversify as new emerging economies contribute to future growth [4] Group 4: Renewable Energy Growth - Renewable energy, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV), is growing faster than any other major energy source, with China expected to account for 45%-60% of global deployment in the next decade [5] - The growth of renewable technologies is accompanied by significant advancements in energy efficiency [5] Group 5: Nuclear Energy Revival - Over 40 countries are incorporating nuclear energy into their strategies, with more than 70 GW of new nuclear capacity currently under construction, marking the highest level in 30 years [6] - The global nuclear capacity is expected to increase by at least one-third by 2035, driven by innovations and new business models [6]