该展望按国家和地区指出，以印度和东南亚为主要参与者的新兴经济体，以及来自中东、非洲和拉丁美 洲的国家，将在未来几年内日益影响能源市场趋势。 该展望还指出，由于区域过度集中，关键矿产供应链的脆弱性对能源安全构成风险。在20种战略能源矿 产中，有19种的提炼被单一国家主导，其中包括镍和钴，这些矿产对电网、电池、人工智能芯片和喷气 发动机至关重要，平均市场份额约为70%。扭转这一趋势既需要时间，也需要政府采取更有力的行动。 电力供应和设备及设施电气化方面的投资已占全球能源投资的一半。国际能源署在其之前的展望报告中 已经指出，全球正在向"电力时代"转型。部分原因是受人工智能的影响，电力需求增长正在加速，煤 炭、天然气、可再生能源和核能等能源正作为新增供应来源展开竞争。国际能源署执行主任法提赫·比 罗尔表示："与过去10年的趋势不同，电力消费增长不再局限于新兴市场和发展中国家。数据中心和人 工智能带来的快速需求增长也在推动发达经济体电力消耗的增加。" 中化新网讯 近日，国际能源署(IEA)发布的《2025年世界能源展望》强调指出，在不断变化的世界中， 能源安全将是各国的首要任务。 本次展望中分析了基于多项不同假设的情景 ...

Core Insights - The global data center investment is projected to reach $580 billion, surpassing investments in the oil sector, which are estimated at $540 billion [8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that the current surge in electricity consumption is not limited to emerging economies but is also significantly driven by developed economies due to the demand from data centers and artificial intelligence [2][3] - By 2035, global energy demand is expected to rise from 654 exajoules (EJ) to 705 EJ, with electricity demand projected to increase by approximately 40% under current and stated policy scenarios [1][3] Investment Trends - The IEA forecasts that total investment in the energy sector will reach approximately $3.3 trillion in 2025, marking a 2% increase from 2024 and setting a historical high [1] - Investment in low-emission power, grids, low-emission fuels, energy efficiency, and end-use sectors is expected to rise from $1 trillion a decade ago to over $2 trillion by 2024, accounting for more than 60% of global investment [3] Electricity Demand Dynamics - The demand for electricity is anticipated to grow explosively, particularly driven by data centers and AI, with a projected annual growth rate exceeding 4% starting in 2024 [8] - By 2030, AI-optimized server electricity consumption is expected to increase fivefold, leading to a doubling of global data center electricity usage from current levels [8] Renewable Energy Outlook - Renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, are expected to meet the rising electricity demand, with solar photovoltaic demand growing the fastest [9] - The global nuclear power capacity is projected to increase by at least one-third by 2035, indicating a potential revival of nuclear energy [9] Infrastructure Challenges - The IEA highlights that while investment in generation has surged nearly 70% since 2015, annual investment in the grid has not kept pace, raising concerns about energy security [11] - Over 85% of new data center capacity is expected to be concentrated in the US, China, and the EU, which may exacerbate existing grid burdens [11] Strategic Mineral Supply Concerns - The market for critical minerals essential for the energy transition is highly concentrated, with a single country dominating the refining of 19 out of 20 strategic minerals [12] - Approximately 7.3 billion people still lack access to electricity, with significant disparities in coverage, particularly in rural and underdeveloped areas [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China is on the verge of becoming the world's first "electric power empire," driven by advancements in technology and energy production, particularly in the context of AI development and energy consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Energy and Technology - The International Energy Agency predicts that the energy market is entering an "electric era" led by China, linking energy control to global influence [3]. - The future of industrial upgrades relies heavily on technology and AI, which require substantial electricity for operations, with AI training consuming significant energy [4][5]. - By 2030, global AI industry electricity consumption is expected to exceed 945 billion kilowatt-hours annually, highlighting the critical need for sufficient and cost-effective electricity [4]. Group 2: China's Energy Strategy - China is not a major oil producer, making the development of renewable energy essential for its future, aiming for electric power dominance [14][15]. - China's projected electricity generation in 2024 is expected to reach 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, significantly surpassing the United States' 4.8 trillion kilowatt-hours [17][18]. - China's advancements in renewable energy, such as solar and hydropower, contribute to its ability to produce electricity at lower costs, with average electricity costs around 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour [34][35]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Recent breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion and thorium-based molten salt reactors position China as a leader in safe and efficient energy production [22][26]. - These technologies could potentially provide energy for thousands of years, ensuring energy security and low costs for China [29][30]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The article argues that the low cost of electricity in China gives it a competitive edge in manufacturing and AI development, making it less vulnerable to energy shortages compared to the U.S. [60][61]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in electricity supply, with predictions of a 20% power shortfall by 2028, which could hinder its technological advancements [6][66]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to look beyond traditional tech sectors and consider opportunities in the electricity grid and power equipment, as these areas will be crucial for supporting the growing demand for energy in high-tech industries [78][79].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that energy issues are central to economic and national security due to immediate threats and long-term risks [1] - The energy landscape is increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical minerals [2] Group 1: Energy Security and Supply Chain Risks - The supply chain for critical minerals is highly concentrated, with a single country dominating the refining of 19 out of 20 strategic minerals, averaging a market share of about 70% [2] - Over half of the strategic minerals are subject to some form of export control as of November 2025, highlighting the urgent need to enhance resilience against weather-related risks and cyber threats [2] Group 2: Electricity Demand and Economic Impact - Electricity demand is projected to grow approximately 40% by 2035 in established and committed policy scenarios, and over 50% in net-zero scenarios by 2050 [3] - Data center investments are expected to reach $580 billion by 2025, surpassing global oil supply expenditures of $540 billion, indicating a significant shift in energy consumption patterns [3] Group 3: Shifts in Global Energy Demand - The center of global energy demand is shifting from China to emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia, with these regions increasingly shaping energy market dynamics [4] - From 2010 onwards, China accounted for over half of the global oil and gas demand growth, but this trend is expected to diversify as new emerging economies contribute to future growth [4] Group 4: Renewable Energy Growth - Renewable energy, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV), is growing faster than any other major energy source, with China expected to account for 45%-60% of global deployment in the next decade [5] - The growth of renewable technologies is accompanied by significant advancements in energy efficiency [5] Group 5: Nuclear Energy Revival - Over 40 countries are incorporating nuclear energy into their strategies, with more than 70 GW of new nuclear capacity currently under construction, marking the highest level in 30 years [6] - The global nuclear capacity is expected to increase by at least one-third by 2035, driven by innovations and new business models [6]