【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】据《日本经济新闻》10月9日报道，由于全球市场电动汽车需求疲 软，日产、特斯拉、现代、福特、通用等跨国汽车巨头均选择大幅降价，以刺激消费。而在业内人士看 来，随着全球市场竞争的加剧，电动汽车的售价未来将持续下降。 更长续航，更低价格 就在10月9日，日产汽车宣布将于10月17日上市第三代聆风，并计划于今年年底和明年1月在美国和日本 开启交付。该车型在日本的起售价约为520万日元（约合人民币24.3万元）。若叠加政府补贴，其终端 价格将在430万日元（约合人民币20万元）左右。此外，日产计划于明年2月推出电池容量和价格更低的 版本，价格将在350万日元（约合人民币16.3万元）左右。 第一代日产聆风于2010年推出，是世界上第一款面向大众市场的电动汽车，迄今全球累计销量超过70万 辆。但日产首席营销经理寺西章表示，前两代聆风一直被认为续航里程过短，需要频繁充电，因此日产 必须努力改变客户的固有印象。 扣，使现代IONIQ 5的价格降至约300万日元（约合人民币14万元）；比亚迪则在9月提供高达117万日 元（约合人民币5.46万元）的折扣，并计划于明年在日本推出K-Car—— ...

Industry Overview - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing significant growth, with EV sales expected to represent 20% of new car sales in 2024 and projected to reach 40% by 2030, indicating a clear growth market for investors [2][3] - The expiration of significant tax breaks for EV purchases in the U.S. is anticipated to impact adoption rates, yet analysts remain optimistic about the overall growth of the EV market [3] Company Insights: VinFast Auto - VinFast Auto primarily produces low-cost EVs in Vietnam, with a current stock price of $3.50 and a price target of $5.75, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 64% [4] - The end of the EV tax credit may benefit VinFast, as its vehicles were previously at a disadvantage due to ineligibility for the credit, leveling the competitive landscape [5] - In 2024, U.S. sales account for only 6.2% of VinFast's total revenues, presenting a significant growth opportunity as the company expands its U.S. presence [6] - VinFast's recent performance shows a 296% increase in EV deliveries and a 473% increase in e-scooter deliveries, although the company remains unprofitable with a gross margin of negative 35%, an improvement from negative 59% a year ago [7] - The opening of a second factory and the signing of its first authorized dealership in California are steps taken to enhance U.S. market presence [8] Company Insights: Lucid Group - Lucid Group's stock is currently priced at $2.30, with a consensus price target of $2.68, indicating a potential upside of 27%, while recent updates suggest a more bullish outlook with a target of $3, implying a 42% upside [9][10] - Approximately 73% of Lucid's revenue comes from the U.S., with the company also facing the expiration of tax credits, which some analysts believe may reduce competition from traditional automakers [10][11] - In Q2, Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles, marking a 38% increase year-over-year, but the company remains highly unprofitable and needs to significantly boost deliveries to improve its financial standing [12] Competitive Landscape - Both VinFast and Lucid are competing in the crowded U.S. vehicle market, where success is crucial for achieving the scale necessary for profitability [13]

Core Insights - The global electric vehicle (EV) battery market experienced significant growth in the first five months of 2025, reaching a total usage of 401.3 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.5% [2][5] - This growth reflects the rising global demand for electric vehicles, advancements in battery technology, and reductions in costs [2] Company Performance - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) maintained its leading position in the market with a battery usage of 152.7 GWh, a 40.6% increase from the previous year, and a market share of 38.1% [3][5] - BYD (Build Your Dreams) achieved strong growth, with battery usage rising from 44.5 GWh to 70 GWh, marking a 57.1% increase and a market share of 17.4% [4][5] - LG Energy Solution's battery usage increased from 34.9 GWh to 39.9 GWh, a growth of 14.3%, but its market share decreased to 10% [4][5] - SK on's battery usage grew from 14.2 GWh to 16.8 GWh, reflecting an 18.1% increase, with a market share of 4.2% [5] - CALB (China Aviation Lithium Battery) saw its battery usage rise from 13.7 GWh to 16.9 GWh, a 22.7% increase, with a market share of 4.2% [5] - Gotion's battery usage surged from 7.7 GWh to 13.8 GWh, a remarkable 78.9% increase, resulting in a market share of 3.4% [5] - The fastest growth was observed in Honeycomb Energy, with battery usage jumping from 5 GWh to 10.5 GWh, a 110.1% increase, and a market share of 2.6% [5] Market Dynamics - The report by SNE Research highlights the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle battery market and the changing competitive landscape [5] - The significant growth of CATL and BYD indicates the increasing importance of Chinese manufacturers in the global battery market [5] - The steady performance of South Korean manufacturers and the rise of emerging manufacturers contribute to the market's vitality and innovation [5] - With the continuous growth in global demand for electric vehicles, the battery market is expected to expand further, leading to intensified competition [5]

Group 1 - The electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with Tesla's new car sales in the UK showing a year-on-year increase in June [1] - The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a 6.7% increase in new car registrations in the UK, totaling 191,316 vehicles, with pure electric vehicle demand being a significant growth driver [1] - Pure electric vehicle demand surged by 39% year-on-year to 47,354 units, indicating that one in four car buyers opted for electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - Tesla's sales in June reached 7,719 units, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, although there are discrepancies in sales figures reported by different agencies [1] - Cumulatively, Tesla's sales in the UK have declined by nearly 2% this year, while Chinese competitor BYD's sales have surged nearly fourfold to 2,498 units [1] - The recent US-UK trade agreement has reduced tariffs on certain UK imports, lowering the tariff on UK automotive exports to the US from 27.5% to a quota-based rate of 10% [2] Group 3 - Future growth in the electric vehicle industry will depend on the expansion and upgrading of charging infrastructure, which is crucial for mainstream adoption [2] - Ford is expected to lead the market in electric vehicle sales growth in the UK, with an anticipated increase of over four times year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electric vehicle (EV) sales will exceed 17 million units in 2024, achieving a market share of over 20% for the first time [1] - Despite economic uncertainties, the global EV market is expected to maintain rapid growth, with a forecasted market share of over 40% by 2030 [1][3] Global Market Overview - In 2024, nearly half of global automobile sales will be electric vehicles, with China leading the market by selling over 11 million EVs, equivalent to the total global sales in 2022 [2] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are becoming new growth engines, with EV sales in these regions expected to surge by 60% to nearly 600,000 units in 2024 [2] - The Southeast Asian market is projected to see nearly 50% growth in EV sales, reaching a market share of 9%, with Thailand and Vietnam showing particularly strong performance [2] Regional Performance - The European market is experiencing stagnation due to the withdrawal of EV subsidies in countries like Germany and Sweden, although the market share remains around 20% [2] - The U.S. market is expected to see a 10% increase in EV sales, with a market share exceeding 10% [3] Future Projections - By 2030, global EV market share is anticipated to surpass 40%, with China potentially reaching 80%, Europe close to 60%, and the U.S. around 20% [3] - The report indicates that the adoption of EVs will significantly reduce oil consumption, with a potential reduction of 5 million barrels per day globally [3] Pricing and Infrastructure - The average price of pure electric vehicles is expected to decline in 2024, with significant price differentiation across regions [4] - In China, two-thirds of EVs sold in 2024 will be priced below comparable gasoline vehicles, while in Germany and the U.S., the price difference remains substantial at 20% and 30% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the development of charging infrastructure is lagging, with only 75% of European highways having fast charging stations every 50 kilometers, and less than half in the U.S. [4] Electric Truck Market - Global electric truck sales are projected to grow by approximately 80% in 2024, accounting for nearly 2% of total truck sales, with China representing 80% of this market [4] - The lifecycle costs of some heavy-duty electric trucks in China are already lower than those of diesel trucks, and it is expected that by 2030, electric trucks in Europe and the U.S. will reach price parity with diesel [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend judgments for multiple futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each product has its own specific trend, such as gold breaking below the support level, silver oscillating downward, etc. [2][5] Summary by Product Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 737.64, down 2.90%. [2][7][11] - **Silver**: Oscillated downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 yesterday was 7991, down 2.20%. [2][7][11] Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacked a clear driver, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity was 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 77,870, down 1.36%. [2][13][15] - **Aluminum**: Oscillated within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Alumina**: Continued to rebound, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Zinc**: Prices were adjusted downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22590, down 0.53%. [2][20][21] - **Lead**: Adjusted within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16975, up 0.24%. [2][23][24] - **Tin**: Oscillated in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 265,210, down 0.21%. [2][26][31] - **Nickel**: The news affected market sentiment, while the fundamentals changed little, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory decreased slightly at a high level, and short - term repair might not be too high, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The inventory accumulation pattern was difficult to reverse, and the weak trend might continue, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][37][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak fundamentals remained, and the futures price had a downward driving force, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices continued to decline, and the futures price was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors were realized, and the upward driving force slowed down, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][43] - **Rebar**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There was concentrated production reduction in the main producing areas, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Manganese Silicide**: The raw material price continued to rise, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Coke**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Coking Coal**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increased, and prices oscillated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][59][61] - **Log**: Oscillated repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][62][66] - **Para - Xylene**: Had a single - sided oscillating market. [2][67] - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA. [2][68] - **MEG**: The single - sided trend remained relatively strong. [2][68] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend slowed down. [2] - **Asphalt**: Oscillated repeatedly following crude oil. [2] - **LLDPE**: Had a medium - term oscillating market. [2] - **PP**: Prices rose slightly, but trading volume was weak. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: There was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillated. [2] - **Urea**: Oscillated with support. [2] - **Styrene**: Oscillated in the short term. [2] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2] - **LPG**: Short - term bearish factors were realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [2] - **PVC**: Oscillated in the short term, and there was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continued. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Retreated in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market slightly narrowed. [5] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure was released stage by stage, and it was looking for support below. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: There was an emotional bubble in US soybean oil, and the risk of edible oils increased. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns about the biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybeans might lead to a weak oscillation. [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: Might oscillate weakly following other soybean products. [5] - **Corn**: Oscillated. [5] - **Sugar**: Trended weakly. [5] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market sentiment. [5] - **Eggs**: Oscillated and adjusted. [5] - **Live Pigs**: The game continued. [5] - **Peanuts**: Oscillated strongly. [5] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillated strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [5] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Oscillated in the short term. Hold the strategy of going long on PF and short on PR. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillated weakly. [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market has a weak overall outlook. The fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and high inventory. The downstream processing enterprises have a low acceptance of the current price and the actual market transactions are light. The industry inventory is still high and the lithium ore price continues to fall, weakening the cost - side support. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 64,120 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 40,116 hands, down 21,415 hands; the position of the main contract was 289,360 hands, up 12,404 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts was - 1,020 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 36,716 hands/ton, up 272 hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 680 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 753 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,855 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume was 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons; the monthly export volume was 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate was 50%, up 8%; the monthly production of power batteries was 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Downstream and Application Situation**: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 0%, down 48%; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 0%, down 57%; the monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 42.74%, up 1.58%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 21.29%, up 0.07%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying was 19.10%, up 0.21% [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total subscription position was 118,709 contracts, up 11,597 contracts; the total put position was 45,107 contracts, up 3,049 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position was 38%, down 1.2675%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.26%, up 0.0196% [2]. 2. Industry News - The International Energy Agency released the "Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025" report on May 14. It is expected that the global electric vehicle sales will exceed 20 million in 2025, accounting for more than a quarter of the total new - car sales. In 2024, the global electric vehicle sales reached 17 million, a year - on - year increase of about 25%, accounting for more than 20% of the global automobile market for the first time. In the first quarter of 2025, the global electric vehicle sales increased by 35% year - on - year. The Chinese market continued to lead, with electric vehicle sales exceeding 11 million in 2024, accounting for nearly half of the domestic new - car sales. Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America also grew rapidly, with an annual increase of more than 60%. If countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments as scheduled, electric vehicles will account for more than 40% of global new - car sales by 2030 [2]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil will be "fully operational" by December 2026 [2]. - In April, the sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 118.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.7% [2]. - In April, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 54.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 52.8%. From January to April, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries was 184.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.8% [2]. 3. Technical and Fundamental Analysis - **Technical Analysis**: On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 - axis and the red bars were converging [2]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Driven by the macro - sentiment, the spot price of lithium carbonate rebounded. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises were cautious and the actual market transactions were light. The industry inventory was high and the lithium ore price fell, weakening the cost - side support [2].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports strong growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) market despite economic uncertainties, with global EV sales expected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, accounting for over 25% of total new car sales [1] - China continues to lead the market, with EV sales projected to surpass 11 million units in 2024, representing nearly 50% of domestic new car sales [1] - Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America are experiencing rapid growth, with annual increases exceeding 60% [1] - If countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments, EVs are expected to account for over 40% of global new car sales by 2030 [1]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electric vehicle (EV) sales will exceed 20 million units by 2025, accounting for over 25% of total new car sales [1] Group 1: Market Growth - Despite global economic uncertainties, the electric vehicle market is experiencing strong growth [1] - In 2024, global electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 17 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, marking the first time EVs will account for over 20% of the global automotive market [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, global electric vehicle sales saw a year-on-year growth of 35%, indicating a significant upward trend [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Chinese market continues to lead, with electric vehicle sales projected to exceed 11 million units in 2024, making up nearly 50% of domestic new car sales [1] - Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America are also experiencing rapid growth, with annual increases exceeding 60% [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The IEA anticipates that if countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments, electric vehicles will account for over 40% of global new car sales by 2030 [1]

推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长，但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示，在全球所有主要市场，电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显，不过随着 时间的推进，特朗普政府出台的政策变动，尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策，可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日，电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布，2025年3月全球电动汽车（纯电动汽车+插混汽车） 销量为170万辆，2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比，2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%，与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平，但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%，达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特（Charles Lester）评论道："一季度，尽管形势动荡不安，但全 ...