Industry Overview - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing significant growth, with EV sales expected to represent 20% of new car sales in 2024 and projected to reach 40% by 2030, indicating a clear growth market for investors [2][3] - The expiration of significant tax breaks for EV purchases in the U.S. is anticipated to impact adoption rates, yet analysts remain optimistic about the overall growth of the EV market [3] Company Insights: VinFast Auto - VinFast Auto primarily produces low-cost EVs in Vietnam, with a current stock price of $3.50 and a price target of $5.75, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 64% [4] - The end of the EV tax credit may benefit VinFast, as its vehicles were previously at a disadvantage due to ineligibility for the credit, leveling the competitive landscape [5] - In 2024, U.S. sales account for only 6.2% of VinFast's total revenues, presenting a significant growth opportunity as the company expands its U.S. presence [6] - VinFast's recent performance shows a 296% increase in EV deliveries and a 473% increase in e-scooter deliveries, although the company remains unprofitable with a gross margin of negative 35%, an improvement from negative 59% a year ago [7] - The opening of a second factory and the signing of its first authorized dealership in California are steps taken to enhance U.S. market presence [8] Company Insights: Lucid Group - Lucid Group's stock is currently priced at $2.30, with a consensus price target of $2.68, indicating a potential upside of 27%, while recent updates suggest a more bullish outlook with a target of $3, implying a 42% upside [9][10] - Approximately 73% of Lucid's revenue comes from the U.S., with the company also facing the expiration of tax credits, which some analysts believe may reduce competition from traditional automakers [10][11] - In Q2, Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles, marking a 38% increase year-over-year, but the company remains highly unprofitable and needs to significantly boost deliveries to improve its financial standing [12] Competitive Landscape - Both VinFast and Lucid are competing in the crowded U.S. vehicle market, where success is crucial for achieving the scale necessary for profitability [13]

增长最快的是蜂巢能源，电池使用量从2024年1-5月的5GWh增长到2025年1-5月的10.5 GWh，同比增长 110.1%，市场份额增长到2.6%。 SNE Research 的报告强调了全球电动汽车电池市场的快速增长和竞争格局的变化。CATL和BYD的显著 增长表明中国制造商在全球电池市场中的重要性日益增加。同时，韩国制造商的稳健表现和新兴制造商 的崛起也为市场带来了更多的活力和创新。随着全球对电动汽车需求的不断增长，预计电池市场将继续 扩大，竞争也将更加激烈。 中国的比亚迪（BYD）在2025年1-5月实现了强劲的增长，电池使用量从44.5 GWh增长到70 GWh，同 比增长57.1%，市场份额增长到17.4%，位居第二。 韩国电池制造商LG能源解决方案和SK on表现平稳。LG能源解决方案的电池使用量从34.9 GWh增长到 39.9 GWh，同比增长14.3%，市场份额下降到10%。SK on的电池使用量从14.2 GWh增长到16.8 GWh， 同比增长18.1%，市场份额为4.2%。 其他值得注意的制造商包括中创新航（CALB），其电池使用量从2024年1-5月的13.7 GWh增长到20 ...

Group 1 - The electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with Tesla's new car sales in the UK showing a year-on-year increase in June [1] - The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a 6.7% increase in new car registrations in the UK, totaling 191,316 vehicles, with pure electric vehicle demand being a significant growth driver [1] - Pure electric vehicle demand surged by 39% year-on-year to 47,354 units, indicating that one in four car buyers opted for electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - Tesla's sales in June reached 7,719 units, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, although there are discrepancies in sales figures reported by different agencies [1] - Cumulatively, Tesla's sales in the UK have declined by nearly 2% this year, while Chinese competitor BYD's sales have surged nearly fourfold to 2,498 units [1] - The recent US-UK trade agreement has reduced tariffs on certain UK imports, lowering the tariff on UK automotive exports to the US from 27.5% to a quota-based rate of 10% [2] Group 3 - Future growth in the electric vehicle industry will depend on the expansion and upgrading of charging infrastructure, which is crucial for mainstream adoption [2] - Ford is expected to lead the market in electric vehicle sales growth in the UK, with an anticipated increase of over four times year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electric vehicle (EV) sales will exceed 17 million units in 2024, achieving a market share of over 20% for the first time [1] - Despite economic uncertainties, the global EV market is expected to maintain rapid growth, with a forecasted market share of over 40% by 2030 [1][3] Global Market Overview - In 2024, nearly half of global automobile sales will be electric vehicles, with China leading the market by selling over 11 million EVs, equivalent to the total global sales in 2022 [2] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are becoming new growth engines, with EV sales in these regions expected to surge by 60% to nearly 600,000 units in 2024 [2] - The Southeast Asian market is projected to see nearly 50% growth in EV sales, reaching a market share of 9%, with Thailand and Vietnam showing particularly strong performance [2] Regional Performance - The European market is experiencing stagnation due to the withdrawal of EV subsidies in countries like Germany and Sweden, although the market share remains around 20% [2] - The U.S. market is expected to see a 10% increase in EV sales, with a market share exceeding 10% [3] Future Projections - By 2030, global EV market share is anticipated to surpass 40%, with China potentially reaching 80%, Europe close to 60%, and the U.S. around 20% [3] - The report indicates that the adoption of EVs will significantly reduce oil consumption, with a potential reduction of 5 million barrels per day globally [3] Pricing and Infrastructure - The average price of pure electric vehicles is expected to decline in 2024, with significant price differentiation across regions [4] - In China, two-thirds of EVs sold in 2024 will be priced below comparable gasoline vehicles, while in Germany and the U.S., the price difference remains substantial at 20% and 30% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the development of charging infrastructure is lagging, with only 75% of European highways having fast charging stations every 50 kilometers, and less than half in the U.S. [4] Electric Truck Market - Global electric truck sales are projected to grow by approximately 80% in 2024, accounting for nearly 2% of total truck sales, with China representing 80% of this market [4] - The lifecycle costs of some heavy-duty electric trucks in China are already lower than those of diesel trucks, and it is expected that by 2030, electric trucks in Europe and the U.S. will reach price parity with diesel [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend judgments for multiple futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each product has its own specific trend, such as gold breaking below the support level, silver oscillating downward, etc. [2][5] Summary by Product Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 737.64, down 2.90%. [2][7][11] - **Silver**: Oscillated downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 yesterday was 7991, down 2.20%. [2][7][11] Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacked a clear driver, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity was 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 77,870, down 1.36%. [2][13][15] - **Aluminum**: Oscillated within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Alumina**: Continued to rebound, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Zinc**: Prices were adjusted downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22590, down 0.53%. [2][20][21] - **Lead**: Adjusted within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16975, up 0.24%. [2][23][24] - **Tin**: Oscillated in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 265,210, down 0.21%. [2][26][31] - **Nickel**: The news affected market sentiment, while the fundamentals changed little, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory decreased slightly at a high level, and short - term repair might not be too high, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The inventory accumulation pattern was difficult to reverse, and the weak trend might continue, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][37][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak fundamentals remained, and the futures price had a downward driving force, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices continued to decline, and the futures price was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors were realized, and the upward driving force slowed down, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][43] - **Rebar**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There was concentrated production reduction in the main producing areas, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Manganese Silicide**: The raw material price continued to rise, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Coke**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Coking Coal**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increased, and prices oscillated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][59][61] - **Log**: Oscillated repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][62][66] - **Para - Xylene**: Had a single - sided oscillating market. [2][67] - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA. [2][68] - **MEG**: The single - sided trend remained relatively strong. [2][68] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend slowed down. [2] - **Asphalt**: Oscillated repeatedly following crude oil. [2] - **LLDPE**: Had a medium - term oscillating market. [2] - **PP**: Prices rose slightly, but trading volume was weak. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: There was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillated. [2] - **Urea**: Oscillated with support. [2] - **Styrene**: Oscillated in the short term. [2] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2] - **LPG**: Short - term bearish factors were realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [2] - **PVC**: Oscillated in the short term, and there was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continued. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Retreated in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market slightly narrowed. [5] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure was released stage by stage, and it was looking for support below. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: There was an emotional bubble in US soybean oil, and the risk of edible oils increased. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns about the biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybeans might lead to a weak oscillation. [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: Might oscillate weakly following other soybean products. [5] - **Corn**: Oscillated. [5] - **Sugar**: Trended weakly. [5] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market sentiment. [5] - **Eggs**: Oscillated and adjusted. [5] - **Live Pigs**: The game continued. [5] - **Peanuts**: Oscillated strongly. [5] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillated strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [5] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Oscillated in the short term. Hold the strategy of going long on PF and short on PR. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillated weakly. [5]

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/5/15 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 64,120.00 | -1080.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -40,116 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports strong growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) market despite economic uncertainties, with global EV sales expected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, accounting for over 25% of total new car sales [1] - China continues to lead the market, with EV sales projected to surpass 11 million units in 2024, representing nearly 50% of domestic new car sales [1] - Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America are experiencing rapid growth, with annual increases exceeding 60% [1] - If countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments, EVs are expected to account for over 40% of global new car sales by 2030 [1]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electric vehicle (EV) sales will exceed 20 million units by 2025, accounting for over 25% of total new car sales [1] Group 1: Market Growth - Despite global economic uncertainties, the electric vehicle market is experiencing strong growth [1] - In 2024, global electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 17 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, marking the first time EVs will account for over 20% of the global automotive market [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, global electric vehicle sales saw a year-on-year growth of 35%, indicating a significant upward trend [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Chinese market continues to lead, with electric vehicle sales projected to exceed 11 million units in 2024, making up nearly 50% of domestic new car sales [1] - Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America are also experiencing rapid growth, with annual increases exceeding 60% [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The IEA anticipates that if countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments, electric vehicles will account for over 40% of global new car sales by 2030 [1]

推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长，但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示，在全球所有主要市场，电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显，不过随着 时间的推进，特朗普政府出台的政策变动，尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策，可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日，电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布，2025年3月全球电动汽车（纯电动汽车+插混汽车） 销量为170万辆，2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比，2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%，与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平，但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%，达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特（Charles Lester）评论道："一季度，尽管形势动荡不安，但全 ...

推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长，但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示，在全球所有主要市场，电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显，不过随着 时间的推进，特朗普政府出台的政策变动，尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策，可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日，电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布，2025年3月全球电动汽车（纯电动汽车+插混汽车） 销量为170万辆，2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比，2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%，与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平，但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%，达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特（Charles Lester）评论道："一季度，尽管形势动荡不安，但全 ...