【导读】中外投资机构大咖最新观点，看多中国市场 中国基金报记者 郭蕾 孙越 摩根士丹利首席中国股票策略师王滢就当前全球宏观经济形势与资产配置策略进行分享。 在全球投资格局深刻变革的当下，中国资产正成为市场瞩目的焦点。 在10月21日于深圳举行的2025香蜜湖财富管理周·湾区财富管理高质量发展交流会上，来自中金公司、国信证券、摩根士丹利、瑞银等中 外顶级投资机构的经济学家与策略分析师认为，尽管全球宏观环境复杂多变，但中国市场的投资机会正在凸显。 与会专家指出，本轮A股牛市行情远未结束，科技领域因创新能力获得全球重估是核心驱动力。同时，高股息策略与黄金配置价值获得机构 力荐，共同勾勒出"看多中国"的清晰投资主线。 国信证券荀玉根：行情远未到结束时 国信证券首席经济学家、经济研究所所长荀玉根表示，本轮牛市始于政策驱动，当前处于基本面驱动的牛市第二阶段，行情远未到结束 时。 荀玉根认为，行情的起点可追溯至去年9月24日，其走势形态和政策驱动逻辑与1999年5月19日的"5·19行情"相似，均基于自上而下的宏 观政策转向，且两轮行情开启的契机均在市场漫长调整、情绪处在冰点时。 "5·19行情"起源于鼓励基金入市、降低印 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, indicating a positive sentiment among investors towards certain stocks and sectors, particularly technology and ETFs [1][6]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 234.26 billion, with HKD 139.36 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 94.89 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most purchased stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (盈富基金, 02800), Tencent (00700), and the Southern Hang Seng Technology ETF (南方恒生科技, 03033) [1][6]. - The stock with the highest net sell was Guotai Junan International (国泰君安国际, 01788), with a net outflow of HKD 50.72 million [1][9]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) saw a net inflow of HKD 62.93 billion, while Tencent (00700) had a net inflow of HKD 5.26 billion [2]. - Other notable net inflows included InnoCare Pharma (英诺赛科, 02577) with HKD 2.33 billion, and Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W, 09988) with HKD 2.57 billion [2][8]. - Li Auto (理想汽车-W, 02015) received a net inflow of HKD 5.86 billion following an announcement of configuration adjustments for its i8 model [7]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The technology sector, which constitutes nearly one-third of the Hong Kong market, is expected to undergo a revaluation driven by improving fundamentals and policy expectations [6]. - Companies like Meitu (美图公司, 01357) reported a projected net profit increase of 65% to 72% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance [7]. - UBS highlighted the potential of Akeso's core product AK112 in various cancer treatments, projecting significant revenue contributions from upcoming clinical trials [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite increased market volatility due to accumulated gains, the mid-term allocation logic for the Hong Kong stock market remains unchanged, with recent market pullbacks attracting further capital inflows [1] - Southbound capital inflows significantly increased, with a net inflow of 59 billion HKD in a single week, marking the highest weekly inflow since April 11 [1] - The global liquidity trend is leaning towards easing rather than tightening, influenced by weaker-than-expected US employment data and external pressures on the US dollar index [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings releases in mid-August for Hong Kong stocks [1] - The performance expectations for the new energy vehicle and semiconductor sectors show significant divergence, indicating higher potential volatility, while consumer electronics have a more certain outlook for improvement [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains reasonable compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's valuation percentile around 20%, suggesting substantial long-term recovery potential for technology and pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (code: 513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (code: 931573), which selects up to 50 quality companies from the technology sector listed under the Stock Connect [2] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of technology sector securities available for investment through the Stock Connect, highlighting significant growth potential and market volatility characteristics of its constituent stocks [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) and Link A (015739) for exposure [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 31, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 13.126 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 7.604 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 5.522 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [2] - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Meituan-W (03690) [2][3] - The most sold stocks were Laopuhuangjin (06181), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), and Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery (00568) [2] Group 2: Active Stocks - The top net bought stocks included Meituan-W (03690) with 2.622 billion HKD, Alibaba-W (09988) with 2.222 billion HKD, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 2.031 billion HKD [3] - The top net sold stocks included Shandong Molong (00568) with 940 million HKD and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with 891 million HKD [3] Group 3: ETF and Sector Insights - Northbound trading showed strong interest in ETFs, with the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) receiving a net inflow of 2.405 billion HKD, Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with 1.781 billion HKD, and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with 973 million HKD [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as a significant part of the Hong Kong market, accounting for nearly one-third, with a focus on potential revaluation driven by technology [6] Group 4: Company-Specific News - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of 13.98 billion HKD, while Kuaishou-W (01024) and Alibaba-W (09988) received 13.82 billion HKD and 10.43 billion HKD respectively [6] - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) saw a net inflow of 2.21 billion HKD amid concerns regarding Nvidia's chip security issues [7] - Meitu Company (01357) received a net inflow of 15.3 million HKD, with Morgan Stanley raising its target price by 140% [7] Group 5: Performance Expectations - Laopuhuangjin (06181) faced a net outflow of 2.78 billion HKD, with analysts questioning the sustainability of its profit growth [8] - Analysts expect Laopuhuangjin's revenue to grow by 26% year-on-year next year, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 30% [8] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net inflow of 441 million HKD, while CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) and Shandong Molong (00568) faced net outflows [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoints presented in the strategy reports "Manufacturing Nation" and "Seeing the Dragon in the Field" highlight new trends and dynamics in the Chinese economy and industry, aiming to break the constraints on RMB assets [1][20] - The current macroeconomic environment is influenced by three main factors: external changes, internal trends, and policy shifts, which create uncertainties that complicate asset allocation strategies [1][20] - The U.S. political landscape is entering a new cycle, with the Trump administration implementing long-term strategies aimed at reshaping global distribution systems, which includes pressure on China and a push for "de-risking" [1][20] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of "self-reliance and diligent governance," advocating for confidence and breaking free from the "Thucydides Trap" narrative, while promoting initiatives for global cooperation and development [2][21] - It argues that the negative perceptions of China's development model and innovation capabilities need to be addressed, as global investors are beginning to reassess their views on China's economic development and institutional advantages [2][21] - The need for high-quality development is highlighted as a response to external uncertainties, with a focus on expanding high-level openness and stabilizing employment and market expectations [3][22] Group 3 - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include the peak of U.S. tariffs, the survival of the European economy, and the resilience of the Japanese economy, alongside China's ability to achieve its 5% growth target for 2025 [4][22] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies should not only focus on past measures but also prioritize innovation, industrial upgrades, and environmental protection, ensuring that economic benefits are shared among the population [3][22] - The asset allocation strategy should be "defensive and offensive," with attention to low inflation, technological advancements, and the importance of domestic policy variables [23][24]