[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月30日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251230 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.掘金财富管理与国际业务，打造差异化发展一流投行——证券行业2026年度投资策略 ➢ 2.核心业务压力缓解，在红利韧性中捕捉周期弹性——银行业2026年度投资策略 ➢ 1.2026年1月1日起我国调整部分商品关税税率税目 ➢ 2.持续深化公平竞争治理等，市场监管总局部署明年重点任务 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 掘金财富管理与国际业务，打造差异化发展一流投行 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently experiencing a downward trend, raising concerns about a potential bear market similar to 2023 [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a current price-to-earnings ratio of 23.29, which is considered relatively low historically [4][5] - The recent bull market saw adjustments in the Hang Seng Tech Index lasting no more than five months, indicating that current market corrections may present investment opportunities, especially with the ongoing development of artificial intelligence [5] Group 2 - The A-share market has seen a significant reduction in holdings, with a total amount exceeding 400 billion yuan by the end of November 2025, which is much higher than in previous years [8][9] - The recent sell-off has been concentrated in high-growth and high-valuation sectors, particularly in telecommunications and semiconductor industries [10][11] - The market's final rally often leads investors to believe that prices will not fall, which can result in unexpected downturns, especially given the current economic conditions and consumer confidence being lower than in 2021 [12] Group 3 - Dividend stocks with yields above 4% are considered good investment opportunities, while those with yields above 6% provide a higher safety margin [14] - The current bank loan interest rate is 3%, and lower rates for provident funds further enhance the attractiveness of high-dividend stocks [14] - A balanced investment strategy involving both growth and value stocks is recommended, as extreme market conditions rarely lead to simultaneous crashes in both equities and bonds [23]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从市场中筛选具备高分红特征、分 红稳定性良好且兼具规模与流动性的股票作为成分股，主要覆盖金融、能源、工业等传统行业领域，集 中体现价值投资策略下稳健收益与长期分红的特性。 湘财证券指出，煤炭行业基本面具备冬储补库以及原煤供给下滑的驱动逻辑，且煤炭企业普遍具备较强 的现金流状况，头部企业股息率仍维持高位，仍是具备韧性的红利配置选择。银行业净息差磨底，呈现 边际企稳态势，负债成本持续下行有助于缓冲资产端收益率下行压力，高股息吸引配置型资金流入，估 值有望持续修复，国有大行稳健高股息配置价值突出。市场对高股息、低波动的资产关注度提升，红利 资产展现出良好稳定性，年末仍然看好红利行情韧性。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market situation where the Shanghai Composite Index is hovering around the 4000-point mark, prompting investors to consider their strategies in response to market fluctuations [1] - It highlights the importance of understanding investment characteristics and risk preferences to guide investment decisions, as emphasized by various securities firms [1][2] - The article mentions the recent end of the U.S. government shutdown and the fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may impact global markets [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on the rapid rotation of market sectors, suggesting that investors should proactively adjust their portfolios to align with these changes [1] - The article features educational content aimed at helping investors understand the costs associated with trading ETFs, indicating a trend towards more informed investment practices [1] - It also points out the potential for recovery among certain fund managers, suggesting a renewed interest in dividend-driven investment strategies [3]

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the banking sector, with a strong market rating, driven by dividend yields and ROE recovery [1][2][3] - The banking sector saw a 13.1% increase in the first half of 2025, ranking second among major industries, indicating both absolute and relative returns [3][6] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for bank stocks from various institutional investors, including insurance funds and public funds, which is expected to continue driving inflows [3][16][24] Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the banking sector's performance was led by shareholding banks, which rose by 17.4%, while state-owned banks lagged with a 5.9% increase [6][10] - The top-performing stocks included浦发银行 (Shanghai Pudong Development Bank), 青岛银行 (Qingdao Bank), and 兴业银行 (Industrial Bank), reflecting strong market interest in these institutions [10][25] Fundamental Outlook - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in the banking sector's ROE, with expectations of a bottoming out and subsequent improvement as negative factors dissipate [3][31] - The median dividend yield for A-share listed banks is around 4%, which remains attractive compared to risk-free rates, suggesting further potential for yield compression [31][36] - The report anticipates that the net interest margin (NIM) will stabilize in 2026, following a period of decline, as banks manage their funding costs more effectively [36][42] Subsector Ranking - The report ranks the banking subsectors as follows: shareholding banks > city commercial banks = state-owned banks > rural commercial banks, highlighting the relative strength of shareholding banks due to their financial health and valuation recovery potential [3][74][76] - Specific recommendations include关注兴业银行 (Industrial Bank), 中信银行 (CITIC Bank), and 浦发银行 (Shanghai Pudong Development Bank) within the shareholding bank category [3][76] Asset Quality - The report notes that the asset quality of listed banks is stabilizing, with many banks showing improvements in non-performing loan ratios as of Q1 2025 [50][56] - The overall credit cost for banks is expected to decline, contributing positively to profitability [65][70]

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the recent market trends and investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of understanding past market characteristics to strategize for future operations [2] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The recent market investment style is summarized as "new, small, fast," with notable performance in AI and new consumption sectors, indicating a shift towards new industrial logic [3] - Smaller market capitalization stocks have outperformed larger ones, driven by improved risk appetite among individual investors, with new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaching a record high since 2021 [5] - The dual influx of retail and insurance funds has shaped the market characteristics this year, favoring small-cap and high-dividend banking stocks [5] Group 2: Investment Factors - The concept of scarcity is highlighted, particularly in the context of Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumption showing significant strength due to their scarcity [6] - The ongoing transformation of economic drivers is noted, with new consumption and AI applications in Hong Kong stocks becoming more attractive to investors [6] - The reports suggest that both funding attributes and scarcity are crucial in understanding past market trends and will continue to be significant factors in future market dynamics [6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a strong rally, with significant price increases and multiple stocks reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic factors and changes in fund management strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector rose by 0.95% on the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, with a year-to-date increase of 9.6% [2]. - All 42 bank stocks in the sector closed in the green, with notable gains from CITIC Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and others, where CITIC Bank saw the highest increase of 3.12% [2]. - Hangzhou Bank and Chengdu Bank reached new historical highs, with prices hitting 16.58 yuan and 19.46 yuan respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Fund Management - The strong performance of bank stocks is attributed to their defensive characteristics amid a complex global economic environment, making them attractive to risk-averse investors [2][3]. - Recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasize performance benchmarks for fund managers, which may lead to increased allocations to bank stocks as managers seek to align with benchmarks [3]. - Currently, the proportion of bank holdings in active funds is only 3.81%, while the weight of the banking sector in the CSI 300 index is 13.67%, indicating a significant deviation that may prompt fund managers to increase their bank stock holdings [3]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Market Dynamics - The rise in bank stock prices has alleviated the issue of low conversion rates for bank convertible bonds, with Hangzhou Bank opting for early redemption of its convertible bonds [5]. - Suzhou Bank also triggered early redemption of its convertible bonds, with a redemption price of 101.35 yuan per bond, reflecting a broader trend in the banking sector [6]. - The market for bank convertible bonds is expected to shrink significantly, with only 10 remaining in circulation and no new issuances since 2023, leading to a potential "gap" in the market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a resurgence, with significant stock price increases and a strong performance in 2024, leading to new historical highs for several banks [2][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of May 9, the banking sector rose by 1.46%, with a year-to-date increase nearing 7% [2][5]. - Notable banks such as China Construction Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Jiangsu Bank saw their stock prices rise over 1%, reaching historical highs [2][5]. - Qingdao Bank led the gains with a 3.4% increase, closing at 4.86 yuan per share, marking a five-year high [5][6]. - The banking index has increased by 6.95% this year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 28 percentage points [5][6]. Group 2: Earnings and Dividends - In 2024, the total dividend payout from banks reached 616.126 billion yuan, with the six major banks contributing over 70% of this total [10]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China led with a dividend of 109.773 billion yuan, followed closely by China Construction Bank with 100.754 billion yuan [10]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in total operating income and net profit for listed banks, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively [7][8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Outlook - The banking sector is characterized by a relatively stable fundamental outlook compared to other industries, with a potential upward trend in revenue and profit growth anticipated in 2026 [8][11]. - Northbound capital has significantly increased its holdings in bank stocks, with a total market value of 227.572 billion yuan as of the end of the first quarter [8]. - Analysts suggest that the high dividend yield of bank stocks enhances their attractiveness in a low-interest-rate environment, making them a viable investment option [11].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a resurgence, with significant stock price increases and a strong performance in 2024, leading to historical highs for several banks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of May 9, the banking sector rose by 1.46%, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 7%, outperforming other industry sectors [1][2]. - Among 42 bank stocks, 24 showed varying degrees of increase, with Qingdao Bank leading at a 3.4% rise, reaching a closing price of 4.86 yuan per share [2]. - The banking index has increased by 6.95% this year, making it the top performer among 30 sectors, with a cumulative rise of 43% in 2024, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 28 percentage points [2][3]. Group 2: Earnings and Financial Metrics - In Q1 2025, listed banks reported a 1.7% year-on-year decline in total operating income and a 1.2% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to reduced non-interest income and weakened profit smoothing [4]. - The net interest margin decreased by 13 basis points to 1.43%, with expectations of a slight narrowing of the decline to 10-15 basis points for the year [4]. - Total assets of listed banks grew by 7.5% year-on-year, indicating a return to normal growth levels, with city commercial banks maintaining higher growth rates [4]. Group 3: Dividend Trends - The banking sector is entering a dividend season, with total disclosed dividends for 2024 amounting to 616.13 billion yuan, of which the six major banks accounted for over 70% [6][7]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China led with a dividend of 109.77 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank with 100.75 billion yuan [7]. - Analysts highlight the importance of sustainable dividend policies, emphasizing that increasing dividend frequency can enhance investor confidence and stabilize stock prices [8].