2025.07. 17 本文字数：2664，阅读时长大约4分钟 三季度资金如何调仓？对此，聚焦A股、港股投资的贝莱德基金远景视野混合基金经理毕凯对第一财经记 者表示，今年整体市场交易偏向"哑铃形"策略。一方面，资金偏向于红利型资产和资源类品种，作为相对 保守的投资方向；另一方面，资金还聚焦于景气成长类主题，如创新药、科技和新消费等。这种结构性行 情本质上还是反映出在复杂的地缘政治背景下，多数投资者对全球整体经济大盘预期不高，更愿意交易结 构性行情。但在他看来，当前拥挤的领域势头有所降温，下半年潜在机会较多的领域主要有两个：一是恒 生科技，二是传统经济中的优质企业，目前估值仍处于低位。 银行、消费等热门板块资金流出 Wind数据显示，上周南向资金保持净流入，但势头有所放缓，银行板块明显转为净流出，前几周仍位列 净流入的前三标的。同时，药品及生物科技板块也成为资金流出第二高的细分领域。 截至2025年7月上旬，银行股整体跑赢大盘，尤其是在沪深300中，银行指数表现稳健，是今年少数录得 正收益的周期板块。过去几年银行股估值持续压制，但2025年以来，投资者重新评估银行股作为"高股 息、低波动"资产的配置价值。 作者 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities suggests that market indices may maintain strong resilience due to the unexpected suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," which enhances short-term risk appetite. Structural divergences remain, and the space for long-term tariff reductions is limited. The current market environment shows a strengthening of total policy determination, improvement in core city real estate, and high historical levels of margin trading, which, combined with policies emphasizing indices, may support continued resilience in market indices [2] - Investment funds are expected to rotate around sectors with high first-quarter report performance and mid-term industry trends, including public utilities, AI upstream and leading technology firms, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and consumer sectors related to younger demographics such as pets and beauty products. Investors are advised to accumulate positions in these sectors on dips and to focus on high-quality leaders in the CSI 300 with significantly lower institutional allocation compared to index component ratios [2] New Market Dynamics - Minsheng Securities notes that a new order and narrative are emerging as investors begin to price in the marginal easing of trade shocks. However, structural shocks will persist, and the return to fundamental pricing characteristics will gradually become evident. Future declines in total demand and the fluctuating path of trade easing may disrupt market tranquility. The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for technology breakthroughs influencing market risk appetite, while the current phase is characterized by a rotation in investor styles towards technology themes, which may lack sustainability [3] - The gradual establishment of a long-term mechanism for domestic consumption is expected to yield three sources of returns: net profit growth, dividend payments, and valuation increases, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, trendy toys, tourism, gaming, and online retail [3] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system is likely to gradually reveal the value of capacities in advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing, while resource products with significant supply constraints (copper, aluminum, gold) may also see new opportunities [3] - As the economic transition progresses and real estate stabilizes, the de-financialization process in China is nearing its end. The current investment and financing environment for Chinese enterprises is improving, which may drive new expansions in the financial sector, particularly as the new domestic growth paradigm and the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process unfold [3]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨，截止到收盘，还在4.9星。 大盘股微涨，小盘股微跌，波动不大。 医药、消费行业领涨。 也可以参考它们的估值。 港股经过前几天的回调，这两天反弹。 港股科技股领涨。 最近港股也有一些波动，螺丝钉也收集了大家比较关注的常见问题。 1. 港股科技、恒生科技有啥区别？ 两者都是港股科技类指数。 港股科技，中证指数公司编制，50只成分股，平均市值规模更小，弹性更大一些。 恒生科技，恒生指数公司编制，30只成分股，平均市值规模更大。 两者很相似，大多数股票也重合。 区别在于，港股科技多了一些医药科技股。类似恒生科技+恒生医疗的效果。 其他一些指数，例如中概互联网相关的一些指数，跟这两个指数也很重合。 2. 港股科技、恒生科技估值如何？能投资吗？ 过去3年，大多数时间里，它们都在低估。 在今年前段时间大幅上涨后，回到了正常估值。 可以参考估值表里港股科技指数的估值。 最好等回到低估后投资。 3. 短期会有波动吗？ 港股的上涨，通常是进三退一或者进二退一。 例如过去1年，港股出现过3波上涨。 （1）第一波，去年2月初5.9星，到去年5月份。 恒生指数上涨32 ...