1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - China's economic recovery foundation is unstable, with insufficient demand as the main contradiction. The stock index may adjust after continuous rises, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the short term, beware of the callback risk of the stock index and maintain a band - short view on gold. In the medium - to - long term, the stock index may maintain a wide - range shock, and gold has a risk of deep adjustment [4][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - From January to July this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, and industrial added value decreased year - on - year but remained at a high level. Social consumer goods retail growth slowed down, indicating that China's economic recovery foundation is unstable, with the characteristics of strong production but weak demand and strong service industry but weak manufacturing still significant [4][38] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The gap between M1 and M2 has further narrowed, indicating abundant market liquidity, but the inflection point of enterprise profit growth has not arrived, and enterprises are still in the active de - stocking stage. The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the central bank conducted 7118 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [15][18] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as last month, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year (previous value 2.9%), reaching a new high since March. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates significantly in September. The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [22][23][35] 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: In July, investment, consumption, and industrial added value were lower than expected, and enterprise profits have not improved significantly. Be cautious about the callback risk of the stock index after continuous rises. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been digested, and the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, maintaining a band - short view. Medium - to - long term: The valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in enterprise profit growth, and it may maintain a wide - range shock. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to the fading of risk - aversion sentiment and the full pricing of the interest - rate cut expectation [38]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating three consecutive months below the 50% threshold, suggesting ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - Analysts highlight the increased uncertainty in global economic recovery due to complex international relations, which limits long-term planning for businesses worldwide [1] - Recommendations for enhancing economic recovery stability include improving supply chain resilience, accelerating technological innovation, and promoting diversified market strategies, alongside continued support for multilateral trade cooperation [1] Regional Analysis - In Asia, the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50%, indicating a stronger recovery compared to the Americas, Africa, and Europe, supported by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership [2] - European manufacturing shows a slow recovery with PMIs hovering around 48%, impacted by uncertainties in US trade policies which could affect core industries [2] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI remains unchanged from April, continuing a three-month trend below 49%, while Africa's PMI has dropped below 49% for two consecutive months, indicating weakened recovery momentum [3][4] - The US's tariff policies are negatively affecting African economies, potentially pushing them out of global supply chains, while African nations are seeking to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area to enhance trade relationships [4]

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].