2月6日，中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2026年1月份全球制造业PMI为51%，较2025年12月份 (以下简称"上月")上升1.5个百分点，结束连续10个月50%以下的运行趋势。 "亚洲制造业恢复态势相对稳定，仍将在2026年发挥稳定全球经济增长的重要作用。"武威表示，亚洲各 国通过强化内生增长动力、深化区域合作、增强供应链韧性等路径来推动经济持续复苏，为全球经济稳 定注入持续动能。 此外，武威表示，美国制造业景气回升的持续性仍待观察。一是要观察补货需求结束后终端需求的接续 能力如何；二是要看关税政策对美国制造业的后续影响能否缓解。企业调查显示，很多企业均反映关税 的影响仍持续存在。目前，美国消费者信心仍未完全恢复。美国世界大型企业联合会最新数据显示， 2026年1月份，美国消费者信心指数大幅下滑，从上月的94.2降至84.5，已经跌至2014年5月份以来的最 低水平。消费者信心的下滑意味着美国终端消费恢复动力仍显不足，对制造业的带动作用也将有限。 中国物流信息中心分析师武威对《证券日报》记者表示，这意味着全球制造业景气水平较上月有明显提 升。在全球市场有效需求持续不足的大背景下，全球经济实现快速回升 ...

中新社北京2月6日电 (记者阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会6日发布数据显示，1月份，全球制造业采购经 理指数(PMI)为51%，较上月上升1.5个百分点，结束连续10个月50%以下的运行趋势。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 1月份，全球制造业PMI升至50%以上，意味着全球制造业景气水平较上月有明显提升。分区域看，欧 洲制造业PMI为50%，较上月上升0.7个百分点，结束了自2022年8月以来50%以下的运行趋势，显示欧 洲制造业景气水平较上月有所上升。亚洲制造业PMI为51%，较上月微幅下降，连续9个月在50%以上。 亚洲制造业持续保持在扩张区间，恢复态势相对稳定，仍将在2026年发挥稳定全球经济增长的重要作 用。 分析称，在全球市场有效需求持续不足的大背景下，全球经济实现快速回升的概率依然偏低，整体仍将 维持缓慢复苏的节奏。全球制造业景气趋升态势能否延续仍有待观察。进入2026年，各大国际机构对全 球经济增长预测均未出现明显上调。全球贸易紧张局势没有明显改变，地缘政治冲突隐患也没有消除， 这些扰动因素对全球贸易流动、市场信心及产业链稳定的影响仍将持续显现。(完) 1月份，美洲制造业PMI为51.8%，较上月上升 ...

每经AI快讯，2月6日，中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2026年1月份全球制造业PMI为51%，较 上月上升1.5个百分点，结束连续10个月50%以下的运行趋势。分区域看，非洲制造业PMI较上月下降， 降至50%以下；欧洲制造业PMI升至50%；亚洲制造业PMI较上月波动不大，连续2个月稳定在51%左 右；美洲制造业PMI升至51%以上。 ...

Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank announced a 28.6 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation on January 7, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, matching the tender amount of 28.6 billion yuan. On the same day, 528.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 500.2 billion yuan [1] Market Liquidity - The interbank market continues to maintain a loose liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly rising to around 1.26%. Overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system are around 1.25%, indicating ample supply. Non-bank institutions' pledged certificates of deposit and overnight credit bonds are quoted around 1.40%. Traders noted that the central bank's net withdrawal increased after the New Year, but the impact on liquidity was limited, with recent central bank meetings reiterating the possibility of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to soothe market sentiment [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.63%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds have generally risen, with specific rates as follows: - 1-year government bond at 1.3050% (down 0.10) - 2-year at 1.4475% (up 3.75) - 3-year at 1.4700% (up 3.50) - 10-year at 1.7730% (up 1.05) - 30-year at 2.3325% (up 2.25) [9] Government Bond Futures - The main contracts for government bond futures saw declines: - 30-year contract down 0.44% - 10-year down 0.08% - 5-year down 0.06% - 2-year down 0.03% [11] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,579 billion USD, an increase of 11.5 billion USD from the end of November, reflecting a rise of 0.34%. This increase is attributed to the influence of major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data, alongside fluctuations in exchange rates and asset prices [13] Global Manufacturing PMI - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining a range of 49%-50% for ten consecutive months. The average PMI for 2025 was 49.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from 2024 [15]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to enhance differentiated regulation for quality institutions while loosening capital space and leverage limits for them, and exploring differentiated supervision for small and foreign brokerages [2] - The CSRC emphasizes strict regulation for problematic brokerages, ensuring legal consequences for violations [2] - The China People's Insurance Group's Vice President Yu Ze is under investigation for serious disciplinary violations [4] Group 2 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the global manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is 49.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening recovery in global manufacturing [5] - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units and exports at 10,185 units [6] - The successful launch of 14 low-orbit satellite internet satellites by the Long March 8 rocket marks a significant achievement in China's commercial space endeavors [4]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for July reported by JPMorgan is 49.7, a decrease from the previous value of 50.4, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Summary by Category - **Manufacturing Sector Performance** - The July PMI of 49.7 suggests a decline in manufacturing activity, as it falls below the neutral level of 50, which typically indicates expansion [1] - The previous month's PMI was recorded at 50.4, showing a notable decrease of 0.7 points [1]

Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - The global manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.3, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[6] - The production index rose by 2.3 percentage points to 51.3, while the demand index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.1, showing significant recovery in both supply and demand[25] - Emerging markets saw a substantial recovery, with a 1.2 percentage point increase to 50.4, returning to the expansion zone[31] Group 2: Regional Insights - China's manufacturing PMI improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold, with new orders rising by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2[55] - The US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.0, still in contraction territory, with new orders experiencing the largest decline in three months[86] - India's manufacturing sector showed strong performance, while the EU manufacturing sector improved moderately, and ASEAN manufacturing weakened slightly[6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current phase of tariff relief is expected to provide temporary support to global manufacturing, but future tariff policies remain uncertain[7] - The pace of interest rate cuts in the US will continue to be constrained by inflationary pressures[7] - Risks include domestic and international economic fluctuations, changes in macro liquidity regulations, and potential oversupply of raw materials leading to price declines[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, an increase in intermediate product supply, the resurgence of tariff issues, and average market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will face pressure in the near - term and seek support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, due to steel mill and nickel - iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with average spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 121,730 yuan/ton and closed at 120,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,191 lots, and the open interest was 69,366 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a large negative line on the daily chart, with slightly lower trading volume and slightly higher open interest compared to the previous day [1][2]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Trump announced that the US government would release tariff letters or agreements with trading partners at 12:00 noon on July 7, and planned to impose up to 70% tariffs on some countries' goods starting from August 1. Any country aligning with the BRICS anti - US policy would face an additional 10% tariff. In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3174 trillion US dollars, up 3.22 billion US dollars from the end of May, an increase of 0.98% [2]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: In the Philippines, heavy rainfall and seasonal typhoons in the Surigao mining area slowed down shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated ferronickel metal production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June 2025, Indonesia's nickel wet - process intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 1,500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands in the market also decreased accordingly. The spot supply of refined nickel was sufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with average spot transactions. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,832 (- 227.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,470 (0) tons [2]. 3.2 Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,760 yuan/ton and closed at 12,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,639 lots, and the open interest was 90,442 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a medium - sized negative line on the daily chart, with slightly higher trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: Similar to the nickel market, heavy rainfall and typhoons in the Philippines' Surigao mining area affected shipping. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage was alleviated by production cuts. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. Nickel - iron quotes were mainly in the range of 915 - 920 yuan/nickel (including bottom - hold tax) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The stainless - steel futures market was weak, with low market inquiry activity and insufficient transaction follow - up. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 125 - 275 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [5].

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating three consecutive months below the 50% threshold, suggesting ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - Analysts highlight the increased uncertainty in global economic recovery due to complex international relations, which limits long-term planning for businesses worldwide [1] - Recommendations for enhancing economic recovery stability include improving supply chain resilience, accelerating technological innovation, and promoting diversified market strategies, alongside continued support for multilateral trade cooperation [1] Regional Analysis - In Asia, the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50%, indicating a stronger recovery compared to the Americas, Africa, and Europe, supported by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership [2] - European manufacturing shows a slow recovery with PMIs hovering around 48%, impacted by uncertainties in US trade policies which could affect core industries [2] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI remains unchanged from April, continuing a three-month trend below 49%, while Africa's PMI has dropped below 49% for two consecutive months, indicating weakened recovery momentum [3][4] - The US's tariff policies are negatively affecting African economies, potentially pushing them out of global supply chains, while African nations are seeking to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area to enhance trade relationships [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].