Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI increased to 51% in January 2026, marking a 1.5 percentage point rise from December 2025, ending a 10-month trend below 50% [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI indicates a significant improvement in manufacturing sentiment, suggesting a potential stabilization in the global economy [1] - Despite the rise in PMI, the overall economic recovery is expected to remain slow due to persistent insufficient demand in global markets [1] - The sustainability of the upward trend in global manufacturing sentiment is still uncertain and requires further observation [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMIs - In January 2026, Africa's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Europe's manufacturing PMI rose to 50%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, ending a trend below 50% since August 2022 [1] - Asia's manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 51%, remaining above 50% for nine consecutive months, indicating stable recovery [1] - The Americas saw a significant increase in manufacturing PMI to 51.8%, up 3.9 percentage points, ending a 10-month trend below 50% [1] Group 3: Asia's Role in Global Economic Growth - Asia is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing global economic growth in 2026 through enhanced internal growth drivers, regional cooperation, and supply chain resilience [1] Group 4: U.S. Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence - The sustainability of the recovery in U.S. manufacturing is uncertain, with key factors including the ability to maintain demand after restocking and the impact of tariff policies [2] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell significantly from 94.2 to 84.5 in January 2026, the lowest level since May 2014, indicating weak recovery potential for consumer spending [2] - The decline in consumer confidence suggests limited support for the manufacturing sector from U.S. consumer demand [2]

Group 1 - In January, the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending a trend of below 50% for ten consecutive months [1] - The European manufacturing PMI reached 50%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, marking the end of a trend below 50% since August 2022, indicating an improvement in the European manufacturing sector [1] - The Asian manufacturing PMI was recorded at 51%, showing a slight decline from the previous month but remaining above 50% for nine consecutive months, suggesting a stable recovery in the Asian manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - The Americas manufacturing PMI increased to 51.8%, up 3.9 percentage points from last month, ending a ten-month trend below 50%, driven primarily by the recovery in the manufacturing sectors of the United States and Canada [1] - The African manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6%, indicating a return to contraction, suggesting that the stability of the African manufacturing sector still needs improvement [1] - Analysts suggest that despite the rise in global manufacturing PMI, the overall global economic recovery remains slow, with no significant upward adjustments in growth forecasts from major international institutions [2]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 51%, marking an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, thus ending a streak of 10 consecutive months below 50% [1] Regional Analysis - African manufacturing PMI has decreased, falling below 50% compared to the previous month [1] - European manufacturing PMI has risen to above 50% [1] - Asian manufacturing PMI has remained stable, fluctuating around 51% for the past two months [1] - American manufacturing PMI has increased to above 51% [1]

Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank announced a 28.6 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation on January 7, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, matching the tender amount of 28.6 billion yuan. On the same day, 528.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 500.2 billion yuan [1] Market Liquidity - The interbank market continues to maintain a loose liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly rising to around 1.26%. Overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system are around 1.25%, indicating ample supply. Non-bank institutions' pledged certificates of deposit and overnight credit bonds are quoted around 1.40%. Traders noted that the central bank's net withdrawal increased after the New Year, but the impact on liquidity was limited, with recent central bank meetings reiterating the possibility of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to soothe market sentiment [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.63%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds have generally risen, with specific rates as follows: - 1-year government bond at 1.3050% (down 0.10) - 2-year at 1.4475% (up 3.75) - 3-year at 1.4700% (up 3.50) - 10-year at 1.7730% (up 1.05) - 30-year at 2.3325% (up 2.25) [9] Government Bond Futures - The main contracts for government bond futures saw declines: - 30-year contract down 0.44% - 10-year down 0.08% - 5-year down 0.06% - 2-year down 0.03% [11] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,579 billion USD, an increase of 11.5 billion USD from the end of November, reflecting a rise of 0.34%. This increase is attributed to the influence of major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data, alongside fluctuations in exchange rates and asset prices [13] Global Manufacturing PMI - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining a range of 49%-50% for ten consecutive months. The average PMI for 2025 was 49.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from 2024 [15]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to enhance differentiated regulation for quality institutions while loosening capital space and leverage limits for them, and exploring differentiated supervision for small and foreign brokerages [2] - The CSRC emphasizes strict regulation for problematic brokerages, ensuring legal consequences for violations [2] - The China People's Insurance Group's Vice President Yu Ze is under investigation for serious disciplinary violations [4] Group 2 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the global manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is 49.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening recovery in global manufacturing [5] - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units and exports at 10,185 units [6] - The successful launch of 14 low-orbit satellite internet satellites by the Long March 8 rocket marks a significant achievement in China's commercial space endeavors [4]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for July reported by JPMorgan is 49.7, a decrease from the previous value of 50.4, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Summary by Category - **Manufacturing Sector Performance** - The July PMI of 49.7 suggests a decline in manufacturing activity, as it falls below the neutral level of 50, which typically indicates expansion [1] - The previous month's PMI was recorded at 50.4, showing a notable decrease of 0.7 points [1]

Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - The global manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.3, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[6] - The production index rose by 2.3 percentage points to 51.3, while the demand index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.1, showing significant recovery in both supply and demand[25] - Emerging markets saw a substantial recovery, with a 1.2 percentage point increase to 50.4, returning to the expansion zone[31] Group 2: Regional Insights - China's manufacturing PMI improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold, with new orders rising by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2[55] - The US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.0, still in contraction territory, with new orders experiencing the largest decline in three months[86] - India's manufacturing sector showed strong performance, while the EU manufacturing sector improved moderately, and ASEAN manufacturing weakened slightly[6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current phase of tariff relief is expected to provide temporary support to global manufacturing, but future tariff policies remain uncertain[7] - The pace of interest rate cuts in the US will continue to be constrained by inflationary pressures[7] - Risks include domestic and international economic fluctuations, changes in macro liquidity regulations, and potential oversupply of raw materials leading to price declines[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, an increase in intermediate product supply, the resurgence of tariff issues, and average market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will face pressure in the near - term and seek support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, due to steel mill and nickel - iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with average spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 121,730 yuan/ton and closed at 120,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,191 lots, and the open interest was 69,366 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a large negative line on the daily chart, with slightly lower trading volume and slightly higher open interest compared to the previous day [1][2]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Trump announced that the US government would release tariff letters or agreements with trading partners at 12:00 noon on July 7, and planned to impose up to 70% tariffs on some countries' goods starting from August 1. Any country aligning with the BRICS anti - US policy would face an additional 10% tariff. In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3174 trillion US dollars, up 3.22 billion US dollars from the end of May, an increase of 0.98% [2]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: In the Philippines, heavy rainfall and seasonal typhoons in the Surigao mining area slowed down shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated ferronickel metal production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June 2025, Indonesia's nickel wet - process intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 1,500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands in the market also decreased accordingly. The spot supply of refined nickel was sufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with average spot transactions. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,832 (- 227.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,470 (0) tons [2]. 3.2 Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,760 yuan/ton and closed at 12,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,639 lots, and the open interest was 90,442 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a medium - sized negative line on the daily chart, with slightly higher trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: Similar to the nickel market, heavy rainfall and typhoons in the Philippines' Surigao mining area affected shipping. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage was alleviated by production cuts. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. Nickel - iron quotes were mainly in the range of 915 - 920 yuan/nickel (including bottom - hold tax) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The stainless - steel futures market was weak, with low market inquiry activity and insufficient transaction follow - up. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 125 - 275 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [5].

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating three consecutive months below the 50% threshold, suggesting ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - Analysts highlight the increased uncertainty in global economic recovery due to complex international relations, which limits long-term planning for businesses worldwide [1] - Recommendations for enhancing economic recovery stability include improving supply chain resilience, accelerating technological innovation, and promoting diversified market strategies, alongside continued support for multilateral trade cooperation [1] Regional Analysis - In Asia, the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50%, indicating a stronger recovery compared to the Americas, Africa, and Europe, supported by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership [2] - European manufacturing shows a slow recovery with PMIs hovering around 48%, impacted by uncertainties in US trade policies which could affect core industries [2] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI remains unchanged from April, continuing a three-month trend below 49%, while Africa's PMI has dropped below 49% for two consecutive months, indicating weakened recovery momentum [3][4] - The US's tariff policies are negatively affecting African economies, potentially pushing them out of global supply chains, while African nations are seeking to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area to enhance trade relationships [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].