记者 辛圆 2月25日，人民币对美元即期汇率接连升破6.88、6.87关口。 在岸人民币对美元16:30收盘报6.8672，较上一交易日上涨177点，创2023年4月14日以来新高。截止发稿，离岸人民币对美元报6.8667，较昨日上涨129个基 点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，节后人民币对美元较快升值，延续了2025年12月以来的偏强走势。背后或有三方面原因。 第三方面，王青认为，近期人民币对美元持续升值后，此前出口高增累积的结汇需求在加速释放。最新结售汇数据显示，2025年12月和2026年1月，银行代 客结售汇顺差分别达到999.3亿美元和887.6亿美元，单月顺差规模分列历史第1和第3位。值得一提的是，以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏 高，也是助推人民币走势偏强，连破重要关口的一个重要因素。 中国人民银行发布此前发布的《2025年四季度货币政策执行报告》延续了"汇率基本稳定"的总基调，并在保持弹性、强化预期引导、防范超调风险基础上， 新增"发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器功能"。 "短期来看，考虑到外部环境回稳态势有望延续，一季度我国出口还会保持较快增长，再加上当前汇市 ...

展望后市，多位专家提醒，人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性，企业和金融机构切忌盲目跟风、赌汇 率走势。（上证报） 从市场归因来看，结汇盘集中释放是本轮人民币走强的核心驱动力。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记 者表示，年末企业结汇需求季节性增加，叠加近期人民币持续升值，此前出口高增所累积的结汇需求有 可能加速释放。 外部环境变化也为人民币走强提供了助力。王青分析称，近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事 调查，令美联储独立性受到冲击，加之美联储新主席人选的"降息+缩表"主张尚未扭转美元颓势。非美 货币普遍升值，人民币顺势走升。 2月12日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双升破6.90关口，盘中创下2023年4月以来新高。 ...

格隆汇2月12日｜尽管美国劳动力市场韧性迹象暗示美联储或长期按兵不动，美元依然走弱。Corpay策 略师卡尔·沙莫塔表示："这表明看空情绪已根深蒂固，并对包括我们在内那些预期美国强劲基本面将提 供支撑的人构成警示。以历史标准衡量，美元迄今跌幅仍属温和，若市场情绪无转变，后续下行空间犹 存。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar returned to the "6" range for the first time in 15 months, closing at 6.9973 on December 25, 2025, defying market expectations that it would remain above "7" [1] - The direct driver of RMB appreciation is the decline of the US dollar, particularly after the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, leading to a drop in the dollar index below 100 [3] - The appreciation of the RMB is positively impacting import enterprises, reducing procurement costs for commodities like oil and agricultural products, which translates into improved profit margins [3] Group 2 - Export enterprises are facing challenges due to the RMB appreciation, with a Zhejiang small commodity trader noting that a $100,000 order now yields only 700,000 RMB compared to 730,000 RMB earlier in the year, squeezing profit margins [5] - The capital market's response is mixed; while RMB appreciation has attracted foreign capital into Chinese assets, investors in Hong Kong are experiencing currency exchange losses [5] - The improvement in China's economic fundamentals, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in export value in USD terms for the first ten months of 2025, is enhancing foreign investment interest in RMB assets [7] Group 3 - Companies are adopting divergent strategies in response to currency fluctuations; some export firms are using forward foreign exchange tools to lock in rates, while import firms are adjusting their procurement schedules [8] - The central bank is maintaining vigilance, emphasizing the need to keep the RMB exchange rate stable and preventing excessive fluctuations, as indicated by the setting of the mid-price at 7.0392 despite market rates breaching 7.0 [8] - The RMB's performance against a basket of currencies shows significant appreciation against the US dollar but remains weak against non-USD currencies like the euro and yen, suggesting limited impact on export competitiveness in those markets [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar, which has experienced an 8.4% drop in the first five months of the year, marking the worst start in history against a basket of global currencies. This decline is exacerbated by a controversial tax provision in the latest federal tax and spending bill, which could lead to a capital war by imposing new taxes on foreign investments deemed unfair [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar has recorded an 8.4% decline in the first five months of the year, the worst performance on record [1]. - The dollar index is currently trading near its lowest level since spring 2022 [1]. - The decline in the dollar is seen as a signal that could further weaken its position in the global market [1]. Group 2: Tax Provision Impact - A hidden provision in the federal tax bill, referred to as the "retribution tax," allows the government to impose new taxes on foreign investments from countries with perceived unfair tax systems [1]. - This provision could escalate trade tensions into a capital war, threatening trillions of dollars in US assets held by foreign investors [1]. Group 3: Global Capital Flows - The potential "asset tax" could impose additional costs on European investors when repatriating capital gains, dividends, or US Treasury coupon payments [2]. - Major market participants are already reacting, with the euro appreciating by 11% this year despite a weak Eurozone economy [2]. - The Japanese yen has risen by 9% and the British pound by 8%, despite their respective central banks also cutting interest rates [2].

Core Viewpoint - The rising tariffs and weakening dollar are significantly impacting global corporate earnings expectations, with further damage anticipated in the coming quarters [1] Group 1: Currency Impact on Companies - The euro has reached a three-year low against the dollar, and the Swiss franc has hit a ten-year low, prompting alarm among European companies [1] - SAP, one of Europe's largest companies, highlighted that the weak dollar will adversely affect its mid-term profitability, with the impact becoming more pronounced as currency hedging measures expire next year [1] - Heineken, the Dutch brewing company, expects a revenue decrease of €1.72 billion due to the strengthening euro against various currencies [1] Group 2: Broader Industry Concerns - French diagnostics company bioMérieux and UK retailer WH Smith also emphasized currency risks in their earnings reports [1] - Florian Jell, head of macro research at Dragonback Capital, stated that European companies must recognize that their price competitiveness can no longer rely on a strong dollar [1]