瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 沪铜市场周报 淡季影响需求谨慎，沪铜或将有所承压 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.63%，振幅5.51%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价100770元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国CPI增速在12月保持稳定，核心CPI略低于预期。特朗普称赞通胀数据，称鲍威尔应该大幅降息。 美联储传声筒：12月CPI不太可能改变当前的观望态度。国内方面，工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、 有色、新材料、汽车、机械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的12家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积极参与行业规则 制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下探，矿紧对铜价的成本支撑力度仍在。 供给端，受制于原料供给紧张，25年底产量仅小幅增加，往后看26年初产量亦大体持稳，国内供给量维持相对充足状态。 需求端，淡季影响 ...

今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于89.21一线上方，今日开盘于86.90美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报89.85美元/盎司，上涨3.37%，最高触及89.99美元/盎司，最低下探86.90美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 要恢复降息，美联储官员可能需要看到新的证据显示劳动市场条件正在恶化或者价格压力正在减弱。后 者可能还需要至少再几个月的通胀数据才能显现。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：12月消费者价格指数(CPI)不太可能改变美联储当前的观望态度，因为官 员们很可能希望在降息前看到更多证据，证明通胀正在企稳并逐步下降。 尽管如此，阻力最小的路径仍是上行。白银的首个阻力位将是87.00美元，随后是88.00美元的关口和 89.11美元的历史高点。 美联储在过去三次会议上连续下调基准利率，最近一次是在12月，尽管去年通胀已停止下降。 另一方面，白银的首个支撑位是1月12日高点86.23美元，随后是85.50美元区域。跌破85.50美元则将暴 露80美元支撑。 官员们下调利率，是出于对劳动市场可能出现比预期更大的放缓风险的担忧。 【最新现货 ...

来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：12月消费者价格指数（CPI）不太可能改变美联储当前的观望态度，因 为官员们很可能希望在降息前看到更多证据，证明通胀正在企稳并逐步下降。美联储在过去三次会议上 连续下调基准利率，最近一次是在12月，尽管去年通胀已停止下降。官员们下调利率，是出于对劳动市 场可能出现比预期更大的放缓风险的担忧。要恢复降息，美联储官员可能需要看到新的证据显示劳动市 场条件正在恶化或者价格压力正在减弱。后者可能还需要至少再几个月的通胀数据才能显现。 ...

Core Insights - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a moderate increase, with a month-over-month rise of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [1][4] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, slightly below expectations [1][4] Inflation Dynamics - The automotive and travel sectors continue to exhibit weakness, contributing to a drag on inflation, while import prices are showing significant upward pressure attributed to tariffs [4][5] - Various imported goods, including home appliances and sports equipment, have seen price increases approaching or exceeding an annualized rate of 10% over the past three months [5] - The report indicates that as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventories and refrain from further profit margin compression, tariff-related price pressures are expected to intensify in the coming months [5] Sector Performance - Healthcare CPI increased by 0.5% in June, and clothing prices rose by 0.4%, reversing declines from May [5] - The travel industry remains weak, with accommodation prices falling short of expectations and airfares rising less than predicted based on high-frequency travel booking data [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance due to the structural divergence in inflation dynamics, with potential upward risks remaining [9] - The forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June is a month-over-month increase of 0.28%, with a year-over-year rise of 2.7% [9]

Core Insights - The latest employment report indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, attributed to tighter immigration policies leading to a decrease in labor supply [1][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, awaiting data on tariffs' impact on inflation and consumption [1][8] Employment Data Summary - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, but private sector jobs only rose by 74,000, below the three-month average of 128,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.24% to 4.12%, not due to increased job opportunities but rather a decline in labor force participation, also linked to stricter immigration policies [3][4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is exhibiting a paradox where private sector job growth is slowing, yet the market is becoming tighter [4] - Job growth in June was primarily in state government and healthcare, with private sector employment led by a slowdown in the service industry [4] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration restrictions have two main effects on the labor market: 1. It lowers the employment balance point needed to maintain stable unemployment from 210,000 jobs per month last year to 140,000 this year, with expectations of a further drop to 70,000 by year-end [5] 2. It suppresses labor force participation rates, as enforcement actions create a chilling effect, reducing the willingness of workers to participate [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June, with a year-over-year growth rate declining from 3.8% to 3.7% [8] - Despite a gradual slowdown in labor input, there is no significant market loosening, and the unemployment rate remains low, leading the Federal Reserve to likely refrain from interest rate cuts in July [8]

事件： 2025年6月6日，美国劳工部公布2025年5月非农数据：新增非农就业13.9万人，预期13.0万人，前值由17.7 万人修正为14.7万人；5月失业率4.2%，预期4.2%，前值4.2%；平均时薪同比升3.9%，预期升3.7%，前值 由升3.8%修正至升3.9%。 核心观点： 2025年5月美国新增就业高于市场预期，缓和经济衰退担忧。5月非农就业人口增13.9万人，高于市场预期 的增13.0万人，失业率也稳定在4.2%，显示美国就业市场相对稳健。其中，5月底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念 日，拉动出行需求，休闲酒店业新增就业升至+4.8万人，高于前值的+2.9万人，是5月就业数据保持稳定的 主要贡献项。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 2025年5月劳动参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" approach, indicating strong employment growth momentum, but wage increases are not sufficient to raise inflation concerns among policymakers [1] Employment Growth - There are signs of sustained strong employment growth in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Inflation Concerns - Wage growth is currently not alarming enough to cause concern for policymakers regarding inflation, suggesting that the labor market's strength may not lead to immediate changes in interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the CPI has been slightly below market expectations for two consecutive months, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2][5][9]. CPI Overview - In April, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%, while the core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [2][9]. - The CPI and core CPI have reached their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021 [2][9]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of -0.1% [2][9]. Structural Analysis of CPI - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily influenced by low base effects, with energy, core goods, and super core services prices shifting from decline to increase [3][12]. - Food prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month change from 0.4% to -0.1%, largely due to the fading impact of avian influenza, leading to a 12.7% decrease in egg prices [3][12]. - Energy prices rebounded from -2.4% to 0.7%, driven by a 3.7% increase in gas service prices, despite a slight decrease in gasoline prices [3][12][13]. - Core goods prices shifted from -0.1% to 0.1%, with contributions from furniture, medical supplies, and entertainment goods [4][13]. - Rent growth remained stable, with primary residence rent unchanged at 0.3% [4][13]. - Super core services prices increased from -0.24% to 0.21%, with significant contributions from hotel accommodations and car rentals [4][14]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The current economic fundamentals in the US appear healthy, with no evident signs of stagflation, and private sector consumption demand remains strong [5][16]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait and see" approach, as inflation has been stable and slightly below expectations for two months [5][16][17]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, the overall tariff rate remains high at nearly 41%, creating uncertainty in future negotiations [5][16][17]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to September [17]. Market Reactions - Following the Geneva talks between the US and China, a "risk on" mode was observed in the market, although caution is advised regarding the optimism surrounding tariff negotiations [6][17]. - The CPI report has led to stable market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the futures market slightly adjusting the anticipated number of cuts for the year [17].