1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to the cautious demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weakly oscillating manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated downwards, with a weekly change of - 0.63% and an amplitude of 5.51%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 100,770 yuan/ton [6] - **International Situation**: In December, the US CPI growth remained stable, and the core CPI was slightly lower than expected. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates significantly, but the Fed is likely to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [6] - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing active participation in industry rule - making and self - regulatory mechanism construction [6] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to decline, and the cost support for copper prices from tight ore supplies remained. The supply was relatively sufficient, but the demand was cautious due to the off - season and high previous copper prices, leading to a continuous increase in refined copper social inventory [6] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of January 16, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,220 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 100,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 640 yuan/ton, and the position was 225,933 lots, a week - on - week increase of 37,259 lots [13] - **Spot Prices**: As of January 16, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,855 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 655 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main contract was - 370 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [19] - **Premiums and Positions**: The CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 36 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 60,699 lots, an increase of 6,468 lots from last week [23] - **Options Market**: As of January 16, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.657, a week - on - week increase of 0.0141 [29] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Fees**: The copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 93,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,260 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [32] - **Imports and Spreads**: In November 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74,700 tons (3.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 7,268.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 922.73 yuan/ton [37] - **Production and Inventory**: In October 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1,938 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 37 thousand tons (1.95%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. The inventory of seven domestic ports was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons [42] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,000 tons (2.66%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. The global refined copper production was 2,386 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 21 thousand tons (0.89%), and the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% [44] - **Supply - Refined Copper Imports**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,404.29 tons (5.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. The import profit and loss was - 1,631.37 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,597.69 yuan/ton [52][53] - **Supply - Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 2,150 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 20,718 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 49,201 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 327,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,900 tons [56] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Products**: In November 2025, the production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 222,000 tons (11.08%). The import volume was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons (2.27%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.87% [62] - **Application - Power Grid and Home Appliances**: As of November 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by - 1.8% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.5%, - 23.4%, 5.6%, 3.6%, and - 5% year - on - year respectively [66] - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of November 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43,184 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [72] 3.6 Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand Balance: According to ICSG statistics, in October 2025, the global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative supply - demand balance was - 0.14 million tons [78][79]

Group 1 - Current spot silver trading is above $89.21, with a recent high of $89.99 and a low of $86.90, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The recent increase in silver prices is attributed to bullish sentiment pushing it near record highs, despite some signs of overextension in the price movement [2] - The first resistance level for silver is at $87.00, followed by $88.00 and the historical high of $89.11, while the first support level is at $86.23, with further support at $85.50 [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's current stance is likely to remain unchanged despite the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), as officials seek more evidence of stable and declining inflation before considering rate cuts [2] - Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve were motivated by concerns over a potential slowdown in the labor market, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's current wait-and-see approach, as officials are expected to seek more evidence of stabilizing and gradually declining inflation before considering rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate in the last three meetings, with the most recent cut occurring in December, despite inflation having stopped declining last year [1] - The decision to lower rates is driven by concerns over a potential greater-than-expected slowdown in the labor market [1] - To resume rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials may need to see new evidence indicating deteriorating labor market conditions or reduced price pressures, which may require several more months of inflation data to materialize [1]

Core Insights - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a moderate increase, with a month-over-month rise of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [1][4] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, slightly below expectations [1][4] Inflation Dynamics - The automotive and travel sectors continue to exhibit weakness, contributing to a drag on inflation, while import prices are showing significant upward pressure attributed to tariffs [4][5] - Various imported goods, including home appliances and sports equipment, have seen price increases approaching or exceeding an annualized rate of 10% over the past three months [5] - The report indicates that as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventories and refrain from further profit margin compression, tariff-related price pressures are expected to intensify in the coming months [5] Sector Performance - Healthcare CPI increased by 0.5% in June, and clothing prices rose by 0.4%, reversing declines from May [5] - The travel industry remains weak, with accommodation prices falling short of expectations and airfares rising less than predicted based on high-frequency travel booking data [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance due to the structural divergence in inflation dynamics, with potential upward risks remaining [9] - The forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June is a month-over-month increase of 0.28%, with a year-over-year rise of 2.7% [9]

Core Insights - The latest employment report indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, attributed to tighter immigration policies leading to a decrease in labor supply [1][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, awaiting data on tariffs' impact on inflation and consumption [1][8] Employment Data Summary - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, but private sector jobs only rose by 74,000, below the three-month average of 128,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.24% to 4.12%, not due to increased job opportunities but rather a decline in labor force participation, also linked to stricter immigration policies [3][4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is exhibiting a paradox where private sector job growth is slowing, yet the market is becoming tighter [4] - Job growth in June was primarily in state government and healthcare, with private sector employment led by a slowdown in the service industry [4] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration restrictions have two main effects on the labor market: 1. It lowers the employment balance point needed to maintain stable unemployment from 210,000 jobs per month last year to 140,000 this year, with expectations of a further drop to 70,000 by year-end [5] 2. It suppresses labor force participation rates, as enforcement actions create a chilling effect, reducing the willingness of workers to participate [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June, with a year-over-year growth rate declining from 3.8% to 3.7% [8] - Despite a gradual slowdown in labor input, there is no significant market loosening, and the unemployment rate remains low, leading the Federal Reserve to likely refrain from interest rate cuts in July [8]

事件： 2025年6月6日，美国劳工部公布2025年5月非农数据：新增非农就业13.9万人，预期13.0万人，前值由17.7 万人修正为14.7万人；5月失业率4.2%，预期4.2%，前值4.2%；平均时薪同比升3.9%，预期升3.7%，前值 由升3.8%修正至升3.9%。 核心观点： 2025年5月美国新增就业高于市场预期，缓和经济衰退担忧。5月非农就业人口增13.9万人，高于市场预期 的增13.0万人，失业率也稳定在4.2%，显示美国就业市场相对稳健。其中，5月底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念 日，拉动出行需求，休闲酒店业新增就业升至+4.8万人，高于前值的+2.9万人，是5月就业数据保持稳定的 主要贡献项。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 2025年5月劳动参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" approach, indicating strong employment growth momentum, but wage increases are not sufficient to raise inflation concerns among policymakers [1] Employment Growth - There are signs of sustained strong employment growth in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Inflation Concerns - Wage growth is currently not alarming enough to cause concern for policymakers regarding inflation, suggesting that the labor market's strength may not lead to immediate changes in interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the CPI has been slightly below market expectations for two consecutive months, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2][5][9]. CPI Overview - In April, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%, while the core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [2][9]. - The CPI and core CPI have reached their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021 [2][9]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of -0.1% [2][9]. Structural Analysis of CPI - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily influenced by low base effects, with energy, core goods, and super core services prices shifting from decline to increase [3][12]. - Food prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month change from 0.4% to -0.1%, largely due to the fading impact of avian influenza, leading to a 12.7% decrease in egg prices [3][12]. - Energy prices rebounded from -2.4% to 0.7%, driven by a 3.7% increase in gas service prices, despite a slight decrease in gasoline prices [3][12][13]. - Core goods prices shifted from -0.1% to 0.1%, with contributions from furniture, medical supplies, and entertainment goods [4][13]. - Rent growth remained stable, with primary residence rent unchanged at 0.3% [4][13]. - Super core services prices increased from -0.24% to 0.21%, with significant contributions from hotel accommodations and car rentals [4][14]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The current economic fundamentals in the US appear healthy, with no evident signs of stagflation, and private sector consumption demand remains strong [5][16]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait and see" approach, as inflation has been stable and slightly below expectations for two months [5][16][17]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, the overall tariff rate remains high at nearly 41%, creating uncertainty in future negotiations [5][16][17]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to September [17]. Market Reactions - Following the Geneva talks between the US and China, a "risk on" mode was observed in the market, although caution is advised regarding the optimism surrounding tariff negotiations [6][17]. - The CPI report has led to stable market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the futures market slightly adjusting the anticipated number of cuts for the year [17].