摩根大通全球和欧洲股市策略负责人米斯拉夫·马泰卡（MislavMatejka)认为，如果地缘政治不确定性和 相关关税威胁继续引发关注并再次升级，新兴市场股市可能会相对免于受到冲击，美国和欧洲股市相对 更多会面临风险。 美国沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research)首席经济学家史蒂芬妮·罗斯（Stephanie Roth）认为，美国总统 特朗普最有可能在1月份的美联储货币政策会议期间公布其对下一任美联储主席的提名，从而把注意力 从不降息的美联储转移开。从更广角度讲，特朗普最早可能在本周公布其提名，也可能在未来几周内公 布。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八涨三跌。通信服务板块和科技板块分别以1.32%和0.84%涨幅领 涨，非必需消费品板块和必需消费品板块分别以0.71%和0.05%跌幅领跌。 高盛集团在26日表示，尽管有严重的地缘政治不确定性，投资和市场人气指标显示投资者的风险偏好现 在依然相当坚实。风险资产的资金流动依然是正向的，投资者调查显示他们看涨指标在升高。风险偏好 现在非常高。市场参与者继续做多股市并把头寸扩大到世界其他地区，包括欧洲、日本和新兴市场。 同时，投资者注意力开始集中于美联储货币 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has initiated a rally since mid-December 2025, driven by three main factors [1] - The reduction of external uncertainties, particularly following key monetary policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, has alleviated external pressures [1] - The strengthening of the RMB has enhanced the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, creating conditions for a rebound in market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Intensive policy and industrial developments have catalyzed market movements, with systematic policy deployments in sectors like commercial aerospace driving thematic rotations and attracting targeted investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook despite potential short-term fluctuations due to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decisions [1][2] - The market anticipates a hawkish rate cut of 25 basis points, which may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices after the announcement, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [1][2] - Historical trends indicate that short-term pullbacks during a rate-cutting cycle present buying opportunities for gold, with a target price of $5000 in the future [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with potential support around 4200 and resistance at 4230, indicating a range-bound trading strategy [2] - The domestic gold market, including Shanghai gold and accumulated gold, is also expected to exhibit a range-bound performance ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with key trading ranges identified [2]

Group 1 - The market is showing cautious sentiment regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, as evidenced by the dollar index retreating to a key level of 98.80 [1] - Major dollar currency pairs, such as USD/JPY and USD/CAD, are finding support around 154.80 and 1.38 respectively, reflecting market expectations [1] Group 2 - The commodity market is experiencing a divergence, with silver prices nearing $60 per ounce, marking a historical high, while gold remains below $4260 per ounce, indicating relative underperformance [3] - The Nasdaq index is currently around 25,800 points, approximately 500 points away from its historical peak, while the S&P 500 index is also near record levels, just 40 points off [3] Group 3 - The recent performance of USD/CAD aligns with market expectations regarding monetary policy, with prices consolidating around 1.38, which corresponds to the mid-support of a medium-term channel [5] - If the consolidation pattern continues, the lower support level to watch is around 1.37, with potential upward movement if prices exceed 1.3970 [5] Group 4 - USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, testing the upper boundary of an upward channel that has acted as resistance since May [8] - If the price holds above 154.80, it may turn into support, with potential upward testing towards the 159 to 160 range if the trend continues [8]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold prices remains weak, but the long-term bullish perspective is unchanged, with a target of reaching $5000 per ounce in the future [6]. Price Movement - On December 8, gold opened at $4196.40 per ounce, peaked at $4218.74, and then fell to a low of $4176.27, closing at $4190.49, marking a daily decline of $5.91 or 0.14% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a consolidation range until the Federal Reserve's decision is announced, with short-term trading strategies focusing on fluctuations [5]. Economic Indicators - Attention is drawn to the upcoming U.S. NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and JOLTs job openings data, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Policy - Despite expectations of a hawkish rate cut from the Federal Reserve, there are signals of caution regarding future easing policies, which may limit bullish momentum for gold in the short term [6]. - Historically, short-term pullbacks during rate cut cycles have presented buying opportunities for gold, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk factors [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish outlooks, but December's momentum appears weaker, requiring a breakout above $4400 to sustain upward movement [8]. - Weekly indicators show diminishing bullish momentum, yet the main trend remains above key moving averages, suggesting potential for further gains [8]. - Daily analysis indicates a current consolidation phase, with expectations of support around $4155 and $4111, while resistance is noted at $4210 and $4228 [10]. Silver Outlook - For silver, support levels are identified at $57.65 and $57.05, with resistance at $58.60 and $59.00 [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in silver prices, with a notable decline of 2.00% as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The ADP report reveals a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for November, which is significantly lower than the revised increase of 47,000 from the previous month and below market expectations of a 5,000 increase, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 71% to nearly 89% in just one week, indicating a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar in the short term [1] Group 2 - Despite a drop to a low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a mild divergence between price movement and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may signal a potential pullback [2] - Should a pullback occur, the bearish targets will first focus on the support area transformed from the previous resistance trend line, specifically between $53.80 and $54.00, followed by testing the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] Group 3 - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported an increase in holdings by 135.4 tons, bringing the total holdings to 15,998.55 tons [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential changes in monetary policy based on the upcoming employment data, suggesting that the labor market is "continuously deteriorating" [1] - Powell indicated that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly compared to four weeks ago, despite the government shutdown affecting some economic data releases [1] - There are speculations that Powell may have prior access to the yet-to-be-released September employment report, as indicated by comments from CNBC reporter Steve Liesman [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that Powell's specific language regarding the labor market and employment growth suggests a potentially negative September employment report [1] - The highly anticipated September non-farm payroll report was originally scheduled for release on October 3 but has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown [1] - The next Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is set for October 28-29, which may be influenced by the forthcoming employment data [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a scarcity of official economic data releases this week [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak ahead of the monetary policy meeting on October 28-29 [1] Group 1 - The new Philadelphia Fed President, Harker, will deliver her first significant speech on Monday and will become a voting member of the FOMC starting January [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is expected to speak on Tuesday afternoon to update his economic and policy views [1] - Newly appointed Fed Governor Milani plans to participate in four different public events on Wednesday and Thursday [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook can remain in her position, rejecting an emergency request from the Trump administration to dismiss her [1] - On the same day, the Senate confirmed Stephen Moore as a new Federal Reserve Board member, replacing the resigned Adriana Kugler, with a narrow vote of 48 to 47 [1] - The Trump administration may appeal to the Supreme Court in an effort to remove Cook before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting scheduled for the next day [1] Summary by Sections - **Lisa Cook's Position**: Cook is the first African American woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, nominated by President Biden. She was dismissed by Trump on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies, claiming the dismissal was due to disagreements over monetary policy [1] - **Allegations Against Cook**: The allegations involve Cook declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain favorable loan rates. However, local tax authorities in Michigan and Georgia found no evidence of wrongdoing regarding her property declarations [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Court of Appeals has temporarily blocked President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her position, allowing her to continue serving [1] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting from September 16 to 17, where Cook is expected to participate and vote unless the Supreme Court intervenes [1] - The U.S. Senate has confirmed Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Governor, filling the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation in August, with Milan planning to continue his role as Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during his term [1]