专题报告 2025-08-26 铅：联储鸽派能否缓解终端消费压力 吴坤金 报告要点： 需求端，高温假期后，下游蓄企开工率快速回暖。但终端库存数据以及电池出口数据显示，当 前铅蓄电池终端消费压力仍然较大。供应端，铅矿显性库存小幅抬升，铅精矿加工费加速下探。 再生铅原料库存亦有小幅抬升，原再冶炼厂铅锭成品库存均有小幅抬升，供应端边际放量。短 期来看，初端企业开工抬升，大宗商品情绪偏多，铅价下方仍有支撑。但中期来看，终端消费 压力仍然较大，联储货币政策对铅价影响弱于其他有色金属，后续仍有下行风险。 张世骄（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 铅 铅：联储鸽派能否缓解终端消费压力 弱需求：旺季不旺，终端消费压力大 初端消费来看，铅酸蓄电池企业周度平均开工率 71.64%，接近 10 天的高温假期后，下游蓄企 开工率快速回暖。2025 年 7 月国内铅锭表观需求 65.18 万吨，同比变动-1.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].

沪金跌 0.78 %，报 785.26 元/克，沪银跌 0.36 %，报 9431.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.01 %， 报 3397.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.27 %，报 39.61 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.4%，美元指数报 97.17 ； 市场展望： 昨日特朗普针对日本确定关税比例，海外贸易政策的不确定性阶段性减弱，这令黄金价格有所 承压。同时，特朗普以及众议院议长约翰逊持续对联储主席鲍威尔进行施压，联储宽松货币政 策预期驱动银价表现具备韧性。 特朗普宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议，将日本商品进入美国的关税设定为 15%，低于此前特朗 普所描述的 25%。同时，根据英国金融时报的报道，美国与欧洲也接近达成 15%的关税协定。 海外贸易政策的风险出现阶段性缓和，黄金价格昨晚表现弱势。 联储货币政策方面，美国众议院议长约翰逊表示对联储主席鲍威尔"感到失望"，同时他对于 《联邦储备法案》的修改呈开放态度，以及认为针对鲍威尔的审查是适当的。而特朗普本人昨 日则再度发帖称利率应就当前下降 3 个百分点，以此为美国财政节省一万亿美元支出。 即使鲍威尔完成剩余任期，在特 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Tariffs have been significantly increased in the U.S. since the beginning of the year, but their impact on inflation has not yet been fully realized due to delays in implementation, trade restructuring, and weak demand[1] - It is expected that tariffs will start to push up U.S. inflation in the third quarter, with the impact likely being less than previously anticipated, but the persistence of this impact may exceed expectations[2] - The current estimated transmission rate of tariffs to inflation is expected to be around 50-60%, compared to over 100% during the 2018-2019 trade tensions[2][36] Group 2: Factors Affecting Tariff Transmission - The weighted average import tariff rate increased by 6.5 percentage points to 8.7% as of May 2025, which is significantly lower than predicted levels[7] - Many companies are currently prioritizing the consumption of existing inventory to temporarily avoid passing tariff costs onto consumers, especially amid high uncertainty regarding tariffs[8] - Compared to 2018-2019, companies are more pessimistic about demand, making them more cautious in passing on tariff-related costs[8] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Response - Concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher have led the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, although they still view the inflation caused by tariffs as temporary[3][59] - If the job market weakens significantly before the September meeting, the Fed may still initiate rate cuts[59] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential long-term effects on inflation may lead to increased uncertainty in monetary policy in 2026[60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For bonds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the ChiNext Index down 1.17%, etc. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.9 billion yuan to 1.4154 trillion yuan. There were positive policy news such as allowing certain Hong Kong - listed enterprises to list in Shenzhen and the MSCI China Index rising. The financing amount increased by 7.447 billion yuan, and the liquidity was relatively loose. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic is based on policy support, and the strategy is to buy IF long contracts on dips, with no arbitrage recommendation [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all had small increases. There were news about the "one - old - one - young" service and Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The short - term bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.43% to 8889 yuan/kg. COMEX gold and silver both declined. If the US fiscal bill is passed, the debt ceiling problem will be solved, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for gold prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a stable US dollar index, copper prices oscillated downward. LME copper inventories decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [9][10]. Aluminum - With the listing of cast aluminum alloy and the recovery of domestic black commodities, aluminum prices oscillated upward. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, it is still unstable. The decline in inventory will support aluminum prices, but the increase in US import tariffs on aluminum products will limit the upside of aluminum prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and zinc smelter profits have increased again. Zinc ingots are expected to have a large increase in production, while terminal consumption is weak. After three consecutive sets of inventory accumulation data, zinc prices fell significantly. It is necessary to observe the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level. If there is no production control, zinc prices may continue to decline [12]. Lead - The price of lead rose slightly. The downstream battery enterprises are reducing prices for promotion, and terminal procurement is weak. The operating rate of primary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead products is high. Lead prices are expected to remain weak [13]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The supply of nickel ore is tight due to weather conditions, and the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded. The supply of intermediate products is still tight, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen. The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long term. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [14]. Tin - The price of tin decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the processing fee is at a historical low. The operating rate of smelting enterprises is low. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has decreased. The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat, and the futures price increased slightly. The contract position decreased, and the main contract will switch. There is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [16]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased slightly. The spot price remained unchanged, and the import window opened. The inventory of futures decreased. Although there are disturbances in the ore end, the overcapacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract is provided, and risks such as policy changes in Guinea need to be noted [17][18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased. The market competition has intensified after the cancellation of the price limit policy by steel mills. The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the market transaction is light. The future market trend depends on whether the downstream demand can drive the digestion of inventory [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply of hot - rolled coil increased, and the demand remained weak with a slight increase in inventory. The export volume decreased this week, and the market has entered the traditional off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, terminal demand, and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and macro - events [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased. The price of soda ash was relatively stable, and the supply decreased due to maintenance, but the demand also decreased. The mid - term supply of soda ash is still loose, and both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weak - oscillating trend [24]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon was flat. The prices of both are in a downward trend, mainly due to overcapacity, weak demand, and a decrease in cost expectations. It is not recommended to bottom - fish blindly. It is necessary to pay attention to the support and pressure levels [25][26]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon decreased. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [29][30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and rebounded. The bulls are optimistic about rubber production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory consumption was slow. It is recommended to take a short - term long or neutral approach and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][35][38]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased, while the price of INE crude oil increased. The gasoline inventory in Fujeirah port increased, and the diesel inventory decreased. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the shale oil support effect, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [39]. Methanol - The futures price of methanol decreased, and the spot price increased. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand has improved slightly. The price may decline further, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread [40]. Urea - The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price was flat. The supply is high, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, but there is still top - dressing demand. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [41][42]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The cost is stable, the production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but a rebound may occur if the export does not weaken as expected [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply load was stable, and the downstream load decreased slightly. The inventory increased slightly. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking may slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [44]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the processing fee is supported. PTA will oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Para - xylene - The price of para - xylene increased. The supply load increased, and the demand from PTA also increased. The inventory is expected to decrease slowly in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The short - term valuation is at a medium - high level, and it is expected to oscillate [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The spot price of PE increased. The supply pressure will ease in June, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The spot price of PP was stable. The supply is expected to increase significantly in June, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in June [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The price of live pigs increased in most areas. The demand is general, and the support for pig prices is limited. The short - term pig price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short on rallies for the far - month contract [50]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable with a slight decrease in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The theoretical supply is still increasing, and the consumption is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and pay attention to the support of the far - month contract when the position is large [51]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans increased slightly, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The new - season US soybeans may oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range and the supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [52][53]. Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first 10 days of June. The export of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased in May, but the inventory in other countries is low. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate due to the balance of positive and negative factors [54][55][56]. Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. The spot price was stable. The export of Brazilian sugar decreased slightly in the first week of June, and the sugar production in India is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The international supply situation has improved, and the domestic supply may increase. The sugar price is likely to decline [57][58]. Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The spot price increased. The planting and budding rates of US cotton are slightly lower than last year. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand situation has improved marginally. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate [59][60][61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is certain to further cut interest rates in the second half of the year considering economic data trends and the path of U.S. Treasury issuance [2] - The expectation of loose fiscal policy in the U.S. has been fully reflected in the gold price since April. The expected expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for the high - level gold price. Silver prices will be stronger under the background of the expected marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy. It is recommended to buy silver on dips and remain on the sidelines for gold prices. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.43% to 8889.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.18% to 3337.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.05% to 36.63 dollars/ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.47%, and the U.S. dollar index was 98.96 [2] - A series of market data such as the closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various gold and silver products (Au(T + D), London Gold, etc.) and major stock market indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc.) are presented [4] 2. Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - For gold on June 10, 2025, COMEX gold closing price was 3344.80 dollars/ounce (down 0.06%), volume was 15.59 million lots (up 12.05%), and open interest was 41.59 million lots (down 4.94%). For silver, COMEX silver closing price was 36.66 dollars/ounce (down 0.68%), open interest was 16.33 million lots (up 10.70%), and inventory was 15402 tons (up 0.17%) [6] 3. Charts and Data Sources - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the U.S. dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, and the price, volume, and open interest of gold and silver in different markets. The data sources are WIND and the research center of Wukuang Futures [8][10][13] 4. Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - The total holdings of gold ETFs (SPDR) were 935.91 tons (down 0.31 tons, - 0.03%), and the total holdings of silver ETFs (SLV) were 14689.50 tons (up 32.51 tons, 0.22%) [4] 5. Gold and Silver Inner - Outer Spread Statistics - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 15.72 dollars/ounce, and for silver was 1.80 dollars/ounce. The SGE - LBMA spread for gold was 2.52 dollars/ounce, and for silver was 1.90 dollars/ounce [56]