文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 核心观点 1、分析十年期国债收益率存在三种框架。站在国别视角，十年期国债收益率表征该国的无风险收益率，应 该与该国的经济增速和投资回报相对应；站在资金视角，十年期国债表征资金的价格，应该与经济周期和 资产配置周期相匹配；站在政策视角，利率是货币政策工具，十年期国债收益率应该与政策利率和融资结 构相匹配。 2、国别经验来看，在开启非常规货币政策之前（政策利率降至0%之前），4%~5%的名义GDP通常对应代 表无风险利率的十年期国债收益率在2%~5%之间，1.5%~2.5%的股息率同样对应代表无风险利率的十年期 国债收益率在2%~5%之间。 3、供需框架来看，企业居民存款剪刀差抬升对应实体经济对资金需求强劲，该指标领先十年期国债收益率 一年左右，且过去一年持续向上修复；非银投资差值（非银机构向实体投放资金-非银机构存款）抬升对应 金融机构风险偏好抬升，该指标领先十年期国债半年左右，且自2024年10月以来趋势抬升。 4、政策视角来看，以2022年，2023年和2024年 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Framework - The ten-year government bond yield reflects the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to the country's economic growth and investment returns[1] - Prior to unconventional monetary policy, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5%[2] - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85%[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Perspective - The increase in the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading the ten-year bond yield by about one year[9] - The non-bank investment gap has been rising since October 2024, suggesting an increase in financial institutions' risk appetite, which leads the ten-year bond yield by about six months[9] - The corporate-resident deposit gap has risen by 9% over the past year, indicating a higher probability of an increase in the ten-year bond yield[9] Group 3: Policy Perspective - As of 2022, 2023, and 2024, the ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate by 12bp, 38bp, and 30bp respectively, indicating limited further downward space for yields[10] - The current expectation of unconventional monetary policy for 2025 has cooled, suggesting a gradual return of the ten-year bond yield to normal levels[3] - Historical experience shows that during periods of government-led leverage increases, the probability of significant interest rate hikes remains low[11]

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase reports that AI hyperscale data center operators are entering a significant expansion phase, with financing needs projected to reach at least $5 trillion over the next five years, potentially exceeding $7 trillion [1][3] Financing Channels - The investment-grade bond market is expected to provide approximately $1.5 trillion for AI data center construction over the next five years [3] - Leveraged finance is projected to contribute around $150 billion within the same timeframe, but even with additional funding from investment-grade bonds, high-yield debt markets, and up to $40 billion annually from data center securitization, there remains a funding gap of about $1.4 trillion [3] - Private credit and government funding are anticipated to be crucial supplementary sources to address this funding shortfall [3] Internal Funding Sources - The primary source of funding for AI data centers will not be external capital markets but rather the AI operators themselves, who generate approximately $700 billion in net revenue annually, with $500 billion allocated to capital expenditures [4]

Group 1 - The social financing scale increment in China for the first three quarters of this year reached 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating strong support for economic recovery and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The financing structure has improved, with government and corporate bond financing accounting for 43% of the social financing scale increment, while the proportion of RMB loans to the real economy has decreased to 48%, showing a shift towards more diversified financing channels [1] - Banks play a crucial role in credit issuance and are also major participants in bond investments, holding about 25% of their assets in bonds, with approximately 70% of government bonds and 20% of corporate credit bonds held by banks [1] Group 2 - The total social financing scale in China exceeds 430 trillion yuan, with broad money (M2) at over 330 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial funding capacity to meet the financing needs of the real economy [2] - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by insufficient demand, low inflation, and low interest rates, suggesting that future financial impacts on the real economy will primarily occur through interest rate pathways [2] - There is a need to address structural imbalances in demand, particularly the over-investment and under-consumption issues, which require a shift in fiscal spending from investment-focused to improving livelihoods [2] Group 3 - The redistribution system needs further improvement, with a focus on coordinating initial distribution, redistribution, and third distribution systems, enhancing the regulatory effects of taxes, social security, and transfer payments [3] - The macro policy direction has shifted towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with future fiscal spending expected to prioritize social welfare issues such as elderly care, healthcare, education, and housing security [3] - These measures aim to promote social equity while improving economic circulation, which is beneficial for balancing demand and supply [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has returned to 3700 points, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a decade, as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [1] Group 1: Systematic Restructuring of Capital Market - The capital market has undergone a comprehensive transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the implementation of a registration system and the establishment of a multi-tiered capital market framework [2][10] - The establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2021 and the full implementation of the registration system in 2023 have significantly lowered the barriers for companies to go public, supporting more innovative and growth-oriented enterprises [2][3] - A total of over 5.64 trillion yuan in equity financing was raised in the A-share market during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with IPOs exceeding 1400 and raising 1.62 trillion yuan, a 30% increase compared to the previous five-year period [2][3] Group 2: Investor Structure and Protection Mechanisms - The proportion of domestic institutional investors in the A-share market has increased, reaching 18.46% by the first quarter of 2025, up from 16.59% in early 2021 [3] - The total cash dividends paid by A-share listed companies exceeded 8 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an increase of nearly 80% compared to the previous period [5] - Regulatory measures against financial fraud and insider trading have intensified, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission handling 2668 cases of securities and futures violations from 2021 to 2024 [5] Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite progress, challenges remain, including structural financing issues and insufficient services for innovation, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [6][7] - The capital market's service to emerging industries needs improvement, with a focus on providing comprehensive financial support throughout the lifecycle of innovative companies [8][11] - Future reforms will emphasize optimizing the registration system, enhancing the quality of listed companies, and improving investor protection mechanisms [11][12]