市公司 머副▷公司书 报告原因:有信息公布需要点评 型入(维持) | / הודדין | | | --- | --- | | 据: | 2025 年 12月 02 | | 市场数据: 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | --- | | 192.16 收盘价（元） | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： and and the local of the local of the local to the local the local the loc ...

| 买入（维持） | | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 192.16 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 | 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-02 01-02 ...

Group 1 - The global chemical industry is experiencing stagnation, characterized by a down cycle due to oversupply and weak demand, with the top 50 companies' sales remaining nearly flat for two consecutive years [1][2] - BASF leads the ranking with sales of $70.612 billion, followed by Sinopec at $58.131 billion and Dow at $42.964 billion, with total sales for the top 50 companies amounting to $1.014 trillion, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous year [1] - The profits of the top 50 companies reached $56.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2023, following a significant drop of 44.1% in the previous year [1][3] Group 2 - Capital expenditures for the top 50 companies increased by 3.5% to $73 billion, while R&D spending rose by 3.0% to $12.3 billion, indicating a slight recovery in executive confidence [2] - Many companies are downsizing operations, particularly in Europe, due to high energy and other costs, with companies like LyondellBasell and Dow closing or selling facilities [2] - The profitability of the petrochemical sector is mixed, with some companies like ExxonMobil and SABIC showing profit growth, while others like LyondellBasell and Dow experienced declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy giant Yili (600887.SH) has ended its 30-year growth streak due to unprecedented industry pressures, with significant declines in revenue and profit expected in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yili's 2024 revenue is projected to be 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.24%, while net profit is expected to drop to 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.9% [2]. - In Q4, Yili made a substantial impairment provision of 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a quarterly loss of 2.42 billion yuan, further pressuring annual profits [3]. Impairment and Asset Valuation - A major component of the impairment was a goodwill write-down of 3.04 billion yuan related to the acquisition of Ausnutria (1717.HK), which has seen a significant decline in performance [4]. - Other impairment provisions included 1.23 billion yuan for inventory and 370 million yuan for fixed assets due to market demand changes and technological obsolescence [5]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry has faced negative retail growth since 2022, with a 2.7% decline in overall sales in 2024, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - Yili's liquid milk segment saw a revenue drop of 12.3% in 2024, with a decrease in both sales volume and price [11]. Market Strategy - To protect distributor profits, Yili began channel inventory clearance in Q2 2024, leading to a significant revenue drop of 16.5% in Q2, which narrowed to 6.7% in Q3 [12][13]. - By Q3, Yili completed channel clean-up, stabilizing sales during peak seasons [14]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates a potential turnaround in 2025, with Q1 revenue showing a slight increase of 1.35% and net profit rising by 24.19% [17]. - The company remains cautious about demand recovery, projecting only a 2.8% increase in full-year revenue for 2025 [18]. Market Share and Growth Engines - Yili's liquid milk revenue has stagnated, with a slight increase to 85.54 billion yuan in 2023, but its market share in this segment is declining [21][22]. - Conversely, the infant formula segment is experiencing growth, with a 7.53% increase in revenue to 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rising birth rates [26][29]. Diversification Efforts - Yili is exploring diversification beyond dairy, including launching new tea and mineral water products, while also focusing on functional dairy products [40][43]. - The company is also investing in health-related sectors and has established a venture capital fund targeting high-tech innovations in the health industry [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1][3] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, actively seeking to adapt to changing demand environments and pursuing three transformations for more effective consumer engagement [3] - The company maintains a stable profitability with a gross margin of 91.93% for the year, despite a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 was 91.9%, with a slight decrease from the previous year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 68.64 yuan, with projections of 75.12 yuan, 81.93 yuan, and 89.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.93 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 15.3% year-on-year, with a volume increase of 10.2% and a price increase of 4.6% [3] - Series liquor revenue was 24.68 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year, with a volume increase of 18.5% and a price increase of 1.0% [3] - The company’s direct sales revenue was 74.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase year-on-year, while the proportion of direct sales slightly decreased [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a projected dividend yield close to 4% [3] - The company is positioned to navigate through industry adjustments effectively, leveraging its strong product mix and market management strategies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, actively seeking to adapt to changing demand environments and pursuing three transformations for more effective consumer engagement [2] - Despite the industry being in an adjustment phase, Guizhou Moutai is expected to maintain stable development due to its strong product mix and market management strategies [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.0%, and is projected to reach 190.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 74.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.2%, expected to increase to 94.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.4% [3] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 91.9%, with a slight decrease projected to 91.8% in 2025 [3] Operational Insights - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue reached 24.68 billion yuan, up 19.7% [2] - The company’s direct sales revenue was 74.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase, with a slight decrease in direct sales proportion to 43.88% [2] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a projected dividend yield close to 4% [2]