Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost - end: Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly and continued to decline during Asian trading hours. The 50% tariff imposed by the US on India led to a bearish outlook on crude oil demand, and API inventory data showed an unexpected inventory build in the US, pressuring oil prices. For PX, China's PX load is gradually recovering, and the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance. Although the near - month PX floating price has weakened, PXN has support due to low inventory and new PTA device demand. For TA, PTA maintenance has increased, improving supply - demand, and the September balance sheet will shift from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. The reduction of September contracts by Hengli may cause supply - demand tension in South China [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.0% (up 0.6% month - on - month), showing signs of recovery. Export shipments and domestic sales stocking are increasing. The load of weaving and texturing is on the rise, with the peak expected in September. Currently, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and profitability is improving. The bottle - chip market has slow de - stocking, and the load is expected to recover in September. For PF, the production profit is 107 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the average load has increased to 91.9%. The downstream load is rising, and inventory is being depleted. For PR, the spot processing fee is 297 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month), and major factories will maintain production cuts in August, with the load expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. Continue to monitor the PX devices of Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical. For PX, the concentrated restart of PX devices in August and increased PTA maintenance have weakened the fundamentals, but low inventory supports PXN. For TA, the improvement in supply - demand due to PTA maintenance in August and the shift to de - stocking in September, along with potential supply - demand tension in South China, require attention to the return of maintenance devices. For PF, demand has slightly improved, and inventory is being depleted, but the willingness to chase rising raw material prices is low. For PR, major factories have extended maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to range - bound trading after recovery. Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. Cross - period: No relevant strategies [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures 1 - 4 show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures 5 - 8 show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures 9 - 11 show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Figures 12 - 16 show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures 17 - 22 show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures 23 - 36 show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of different filaments, and the profits of different filaments [47][49][66] PF Detailed Data - Figures 37 - 46 show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn startup rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn startup rate, and processing fees [70][77][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures 49 - 56 show the polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and month - to - month spreads [86][93][96]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to impairment losses and market conditions in the photovoltaic glass sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to equity holders of 746 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 58.8%, aligning with the performance forecast range [1]. - The photovoltaic glass business showed a recovery in profitability, with a gross margin of 11.39%, a significant improvement from -2.56% in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company recognized an impairment loss of 314 million yuan on photovoltaic glass production lines that are no longer applicable, impacting overall performance [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 23,200 tons, with a year-on-year sales volume increase of 17.5% achieved through inventory reduction [1]. - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass was 12.91 yuan per square meter in the first half of 2025, showing a slight recovery from 12.85 yuan in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company’s overseas revenue increased by 22.4% to 2.99 billion yuan, with overseas revenue accounting for 31.6% of total revenue, driven by significant growth in the North American market [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices entering a downward trend since May, reaching a historical low of 10.5 yuan per square meter in July [2]. - Industry self-discipline measures have led to a reduction in production capacity, with 7,750 tons of cold repair capacity reported in July, contributing to a significant decrease in industry supply [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from limited supply growth in the industry, primarily concentrated among leading enterprises, which may allow for a recovery in market share [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by capital sentiment, with slight rebounds in the futures markets. The industrial silicon market shows stable spot prices, while the polysilicon market also has stable spot prices and decreasing inventories [1][4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the visible inventory has also decreased, but the total inventory may still be in a pattern of accumulation. The polysilicon market has weak fundamentals, but there are expectations of industry self - discipline production cuts, and the price is easily affected by news when it is low [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 7380 yuan/ton and closed at 7485 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 293427 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on June 25, 2025 was 53570 lots, a decrease of 614 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10200 - 10600 yuan/ton. In May 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxane in China was 46600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 228900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1]. - **Strategy** - The warehouse receipts of industrial silicon are continuously decreasing, and the visible inventory has also decreased, but the total inventory may still be in a pattern of accumulation. The recent futures price is oscillating. During the meeting organized by the association in recent days, attention should be paid to various news. The trading strategy is mainly range operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 24, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures oscillated. It opened at 30615 yuan/ton and closed at 31085 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 72286 lots (78183 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 171969 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 26200 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4.70%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a month - on - month change of - 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500 tons, a month - on - month change of 2.94%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.90GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.53% [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4][6]. - **Strategy** - The futures price oscillated on that day, with a certain rebound during the session, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are weak, but there are expectations of industry self - discipline production cuts. The price is easily affected by news when it is low, and the futures price may oscillate widely. The trading strategy is range operation [7].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Industrial silicon (Si) is expected to be in a weak oscillation, while polysilicon (Ps) is likely to rise first and then fall [1][2]. - For industrial silicon, despite potential supply - side cuts in the second quarter, weak demand and sufficient inventory will keep prices lacking upward momentum, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [1][85]. - For polysilicon, the price may be strong in the second quarter due to the "531 rush - to - install" tide, but will decline in the third quarter as the demand weakens [2][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Industrial Silicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of industrial silicon continued its decline from the end of 2024, going through three stages: demand contraction and price decline from early January to mid - January, a 4% rebound due to short - covering before the Spring Festival from mid - January to early February, and another decline due to increased supply and weak demand from early February to the end of March [10][11][12]. 1.2 Polysilicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of polysilicon rose and then oscillated widely. From early January to mid - January, the price was pushed up by major manufacturers' price - holding and industry self - discipline production cuts. From mid - January to the end of March, it oscillated due to the intertwined long and short factors, with supply - side production cuts and demand - side stimulation from the "531 rush - to - install" tide, but high inventory still pressured the price [16][17][18]. 2. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Supply Situation - National production decreased year - on - year. The cumulative production in the first two months was 593,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.08%, and the estimated cumulative production in the first quarter was 934,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.58% [21]. - In the Northwest region, Xinjiang maintained stable production and Inner Mongolia increased production. It is expected to maintain the current production level in the second quarter, considering the cost and financial advantages of large manufacturers and the trend of squeezing out Southwest capacity [24]. - In the Southwest region, Yunnan had low production and Sichuan was basically shut down. They may resume production during the wet season (June - November), but the scale may be lower than previous years, as silicon plants may be more conservative in production planning due to the weak price [30]. 2.2 Demand Situation - For polysilicon, supply remained low under the industry self - discipline production cuts [42]. - For organic silicon, non - real estate demand recovery drove production growth. The cumulative production in the first two months was 420,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51%, and the estimated cumulative production in the first quarter was 620,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.74%. Real estate demand was still weak, but non - real estate demand such as electronics, textiles, and automobiles showed a recovery trend [43]. 2.3 Inventory Situation - Visible inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high. As of the end of March, the visible inventory was about 752,100 tons, a 22.97% increase from the beginning of the year and a 74.43% increase year - on - year. Registered warehouse receipts also increased, but the growth rate slowed down, and the deliverable products were sufficient [58]. 3. Polysilicon 3.1 Supply Situation - Under the industry self - discipline production cuts, polysilicon supply remained low. The cumulative production in the first two months decreased by 42.68% year - on - year, and the estimated cumulative production in the first quarter was 279,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.38%. It is expected to maintain low supply in the second quarter [62]. 3.2 Demand Situation - The new energy on - grid tariff reform triggered the "531 rush - to - install" tide, driving the growth of silicon wafer production in the first half of the year. The cumulative photovoltaic new installed capacity in the first two months was 39.47GW, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. Silicon wafer production increased quarter - on - quarter in the first quarter, and inventory decreased significantly. However, production may decline after the rush - to - install tide ends [65][66]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - Factory inventory was at a high level but decreased marginally. As of the end of March, the factory inventory was 270,800 tons, a 2.17% decrease from the beginning of the year but a 184.45% increase year - on - year. The first batch of warehouse receipts is expected to be registered in early April, and the scale of deliverable products may be between 46,500 - 53,200 tons [77]. 4. Summary 4.1 Industrial Silicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the fundamentals were weak and the price declined. In the second quarter, supply may see the Northwest maintain the current level and the Southwest have a lower wet - season production than previous years. Demand will remain weak, and with high inventory, prices are expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [85]. 4.2 Polysilicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the fundamentals improved and the price rose and then oscillated. In the second quarter, demand is likely to increase due to the "531 rush - to - install" tide, and supply may remain low. The price may be strong in the second quarter but decline in the third quarter [88].