北京时间1月7日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.22%报4505.70美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨 5.95%报81.22美元/盎司。分析人士指出，地缘不确定性加剧，叠加全球对美元体系的担忧加速非美元支付布局，以及 美联储降息预期，共同作用下提升贵金属投资吸引力。 桥水基金创始人达利欧在发布的年度复盘中称，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化 和资产配置的全球性转移，他表示，美国股市高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的 赢家。达利欧同时发出警告，此前推动科技股大涨的人工智能热潮 "目前已步入泡沫初期阶段"。 CBSNEWS则发文称，随着黄金价格接近每盎司4500美元，这种贵重金属已从一个安静的对冲组合转为全球市场最受 关注的资产之一。对于持有黄金多年的投资人来说，这种上涨验证了黄金的持久价值。 报道还提到，黄金的上涨是由持续的通胀忧虑、持续的地缘政治紧张局势以及对远离传统金融体系的资产日益增长的 需求共同推动的。随着对纸币资产信心的起伏，黄金越来越被视为不仅仅是保护，而是一种核心的战略持有。 此外，黄金的历史趋势是独立于股票市场 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 华尔街见闻 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配 置的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 ← Article T+ Reply 7 ( " " Rav Dalio @RavDalio RAY DALL 2025 | | | Naturally, as a systematic global macro investor leaving 2025, I reflected on the mechanics of what happened, particularly in the markets. That's what today's reflection is about. 美股表现背后 的结构性矛盾：盈利增长与分配失衡 02 尽管标普500指数以美元计录得18%的总回报，但达利欧分析认为，这主要由盈利增长和市盈率扩张驱动。其中，"七巨头"盈利增长 22 ...

| | | 要点提炼： 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配置 的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 黄金是真正的价值锚点：2025年美股以美元计价回报强劲（18%），但这实际上是由于美元及法币集体大幅贬值造成的"计价幻觉"。 美元兑黄金下跌39%，而做多黄金（以美元计）的回报率高达65%。若以黄金计价，标普500指数实际下跌了28%。 资金转向非美市场：在强势货币视角下，美股显著逊于欧洲、中国、日本等市场及新兴市场（整体回报34%）。10年期美债以黄金计 价的回报为-34%，现金表现更差，外国投资者对美元资产的兴趣正在减弱。 美股估值见顶：盈利增长由销售和技术提效（AI）驱动，但利润大部分流向资本家而非工人。股权预期长期回报率（4.7%）已低于债 券回报率（4.9%），股权风险溢价极低，估值已极度拉升。 政治与体制转型：通胀导致的"可负担性"危机正引发底层60%人群的不满，预计2027-2028年美国将迎来极左与极右势力的剧烈冲突。 全球从多边主义转向单边利益 ...

桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货 币价值的剧烈变化和资产配置的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带 来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 | | | 要点提炼： 黄金是真正的价值锚点： 2025年美股以美元计价回报强劲（18%），但这实际上是由于美元及法币集体 大幅贬值造成的"计价幻觉"。美元兑黄金下跌39%，而做多黄金（以美元计）的回报率高达65%。若以黄 金计价，标普500指数实际下跌了28%。 资金转向非美市场： 在强势货币视角下，美股显著逊于欧洲、中国、日本等市场及新兴市场（整体回报 34%）。10年期美债以黄金计价的回报为-34%，现金表现更差，外国投资者对美元资产的兴趣正在减 弱。 尽管标普500指数以美元计录得18%的总回报，但达利欧分析认为， 这主要由盈利增长和市盈率扩张驱 动。 其中，"七巨头"盈利增长22%，其余493只成份股盈利增长9%。销售额扩张贡献了57%的盈利增长， 而利润率的提高则贡献了其余部分。 达利欧指出，利润率的改善很大程度上归功于技术效率的提升，但这种红利分配极度不均。资本家获取 ...

要点提炼： 美股估值见顶： 盈利增长由销售和技术提效(AI)驱动，但利润大部分流向资本家而非工人。股权预期长期回报率(4.7%)已低于债券回 报率(4.9%)，股权风险溢价极低，估值已极度拉升。 政治与体制转型：通胀导致的"可负担性"危机正引发底层60%人群的不满，预计2027-2028年美国将迎来极左与极右势力的剧烈冲突。 全球从多边主义转向单边利益驱动，导致军费飙升、制裁频发，进一步削弱了美元资产的吸引力。 | | | 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配置 的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 黄金是真正的价值锚点：2025年美股以美元计价回报强劲(18%)，但这实际上是由于美元及法币集体大幅贬值造成的"计价幻觉"。美元 兑黄金下跌39%，而做多黄金(以美元计)的回报率高达65%。若以黄金计价，标普500指数实际下跌了28%。 资金转向非美市场：在强势货币视角下，美股显著逊于欧洲、中国、日本等市场及新兴市场(整体回报34%)。10年期美债以黄金计价的 回报 ...

要点提炼： 黄金是真正的价值锚点：2025年美股以美元计价回报强劲（18%），但这实际上是由于美元及法币集体大幅贬值造成的"计 价幻觉"。美元兑黄金下跌39%，而做多黄金（以美元计）的回报率高达65%。若以黄金计价，标普500指数实际下跌了 28%。 资金转向非美市场：在强势货币视角下，美股显著逊于欧洲、中国、日本等市场及新兴市场（整体回报34%）。10年期美 债以黄金计价的回报为-34%，现金表现更差，外国投资者对美元资产的兴趣正在减弱。 美股估值见顶： 盈利增长由销售和技术提效（AI）驱动，但利润大部分流向资本家而非工人。股权预期长期回报率 （4.7%）已低于债券回报率（4.9%），股权风险溢价极低，估值已极度拉伸。 政治与体制转型：通胀导致的"可负担性"危机正引发底层60%人群的不满，预计2027-2028年美国将迎来极左与极右势力的 剧烈冲突。全球从多边主义转向单边利益驱动，导致军费飙升、制裁频发，进一步削弱了美元资产的吸引力。 | | | 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配置 的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in precious metals, particularly gold, is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over the U.S. economy due to government shutdowns, with gold prices recently surpassing $4100 per ounce [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen significant increases, breaking the $3000, $4000, and $4100 per ounce thresholds in 2023, indicating a strong bullish trend in the precious metals market [1]. - The expectation of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is leading to a decrease in the holding costs of gold, encouraging self-directed traders to invest in gold [3]. - There is a noticeable trend of reallocating funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among global central banks, institutional investors, and individual investors [3]. Group 2: Economic Signals - The rising gold prices reflect heightened uncertainty and risk in the market, signaling concerns over the long-term viability of the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities, which have been traditional reserve assets [5]. - Bank of America has raised its gold price forecast to $5000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce by 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for precious metals [7]. - Factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt levels are expected to further support gold prices in the coming year [9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver is anticipated to face a structural supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, which may support higher silver prices [9]. - Despite the bullish outlook, several banks have noted overbought conditions in both gold and silver markets, suggesting that investors should remain cautious [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, highlighting that while the stock market is rising, the bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, including changes in macroeconomic expectations and shifts in risk appetite [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Since early July, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.78%, an increase of 8.2%, while the yield on 30-year bonds has reached 2.08%, up 11.46% [3]. - The primary reason for the bond market's adjustment is attributed to changes in market sentiment leading to a diversion of funds [3][5]. Investor Sentiment - The recent "stock-bond seesaw" effect and heightened risk appetite have led to a shift in asset allocation, with equities showing a higher risk-reward ratio compared to bonds [5]. - Despite some redemption pressures on bond funds, the overall situation is manageable, with no large-scale redemptions reported [7]. Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market is unlikely to see a significant rise in interest rates in the short term, with expectations of a "grinding top" market behavior [1][9]. - The bond market is expected to return to a pricing mechanism based on fundamentals and liquidity in the medium to long term [10]. Investment Strategies - In the current environment, strategies focusing on short to medium-term fixed-income assets are recommended, as the bond market may experience volatility [9][10]. - There are opportunities in credit bonds, particularly in financial bonds, as the market adjusts [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the introduction of key policies for personal pension investment in public funds, emphasizing the need for public funds to adapt to pension attributes and serve public pension needs [1][2]. - The State Council's issuance of opinions in April marks the official launch of the third pillar of pension, highlighting the imbalance and insufficiency in China's pension structure, with the first pillar accounting for nearly 70% of the total pension scale [1][2]. - The new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) are designed to support the development of the third pillar, aiming to create a more balanced pension structure and enhance pension reserves in China [1][2]. Group 2 - The regulatory design reflects multiple supervisory requirements, promoting the high-quality development of personal pension public fund products, which are characterized by inclusiveness, stability, and long-term nature [2]. - The introduction of specific measures such as separate shares and exemption from subscription limits aims to improve the investment experience for individuals, making pension target funds a suitable default choice for personal pension accounts [2]. - The rules emphasize investor protection by setting special shares for personal pension funds, offering fee discounts, and requiring participating institutions to establish long-term assessment mechanisms [2]. Group 3 - The implementation of the personal pension investment fund system is expected to accelerate the shift of Chinese residents' asset allocation from real estate and deposits to financial assets, bringing new long-term capital to the capital market [3]. - In the short term, personal pensions may focus more on fixed-income assets, but over time, there is potential for an increase in equity asset allocation, which could enhance the proportion of institutional investors in the A-share market [3]. - This shift is anticipated to cultivate a value investment and long-term investment philosophy in the capital market, reducing market volatility and contributing to high-quality market development [3].