Core Points - The Bank of England decided to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The decision reflects a pause in the previous trend of quarterly rate cuts since August 2024 [1][2] - The current economic conditions indicate a high overall inflation rate, but risks from weak demand are more pronounced [2][4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England predicts that the inflation rate will approach 3% by early 2026 and reach the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [3] - GDP growth forecasts have been adjusted, with 2025 expected at 1.5% (up from 1.25%), 2026 at 1.2% (down from 1.25%), 2027 at 1.6% (up from 1.5%), and 2028 at 1.8% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - The decision to keep rates unchanged was passed with a 5-4 vote, with Governor Bailey casting the decisive vote [5] - Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are likely but depend on confirming that inflation is moving towards the 2% target [5][4] - The upcoming autumn budget announcement is expected to influence future monetary policy decisions [7][8] Currency Impact - Following the announcement, the British pound fell approximately 30 points against the US dollar, trading at 1.30606 [6] - Analysts predict continued pressure on the pound, with potential further depreciation if rate cuts occur in December [6][8] Fiscal Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget is anticipated to include tax increases to address fiscal shortfalls, which may suppress consumer demand and alleviate inflationary pressures [7][8] - Uncertainty surrounding the budget has led to a cautious approach from businesses and households, potentially stifling economic activity [8]

中国基金报记者 张舟 刚刚，英国央行利率决议揭晓！ 北京时间今晚8点，英国央行公布利率决议，决定维持基准利率在4%不变，符合市场预期。 【导读】英国央行如期按兵不动，维持基准利率在4%不变 在此前的8月7日，英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点，从4.25%降至4%。本次英国央 行决定按兵不动，意味着暂停了自2024年8月以来每季度降息一次的节奏。 截至发稿，受英国央行利率决议结果影响，英镑兑美元短线下挫约30点，现报1.30606。 英国预算案不确定性 推动英国央行维持利率不变 根据英国央行公告，英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在4%，选择"按兵不动"。 英国央行表示，考虑到英国的总体通胀率仍然很高，由九人组成的货币政策委员会决定将基 准利率维持在4%。 不过，通胀加剧带来的风险不那么明显，需求疲软带来的风险则更为明显。英国经济活动低 于潜在水平，职位空缺减少，就业增长停滞。 未来利率可能"逐步下降"。 英国央行还上调了今年经济增速预期，同时下调了今年CPI预期。 通胀率方面，英国央行表示，当前通胀总体风险更加平稳，通胀率将于2026年初降至接近 3%，并在2027年第二季度达到2%的目标。基于市场利率的一年通胀 ...

Core Points - The Canadian federal government has released its first budget since Prime Minister Carney took office, focusing on strategic investments to enhance economic resilience against global uncertainties and reduce reliance on the U.S. [1] - The budget proposes a net increase in spending of 89.7 billion CAD over the next five years, while also implementing a "comprehensive spending review" to cut public service and project expenditures [1] - The funds saved will be redirected towards key areas such as housing, infrastructure, defense, productivity, and competitiveness, with the aim of attracting more private capital to drive a total investment of 1 trillion CAD [1] Financial Projections - The budget document forecasts a fiscal deficit of 78.3 billion CAD for the fiscal year 2025-2026, which is expected to decrease to 56.6 billion CAD by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [2] - A key vote on the budget is scheduled for November 18, with the necessity for support from at least one major opposition party due to the minority government status of the Liberal Party [2] - The budget vote is considered a confidence vote, and a rejection could lead to early federal elections [2]

Core Points - The Canadian federal government has released its first budget titled "Strong Canada," aimed at enhancing economic self-reliance and resilience in response to global uncertainties and reducing dependence on the U.S. [1] - The budget proposes a net increase in spending of 89.7 billion CAD over the next five years, while also implementing a "comprehensive spending review" to cut public service and project expenditures [1] - The budget focuses on key areas such as housing, infrastructure, defense, productivity, and competitiveness, with the goal of attracting stronger private capital investments to drive a total investment of 1 trillion CAD [1] Financial Projections - The budget document forecasts a fiscal deficit of 78.3 billion CAD for the fiscal year 2025-2026, which is expected to decrease to 56.6 billion CAD by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [2] - A key vote on the budget is scheduled for November 18, and its approval requires support from at least one major opposition party due to the minority government status of the Liberal Party [2] - The budget vote is viewed as a confidence vote, and a rejection could trigger early federal elections [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant political implications of the U.S. government shutdown, emphasizing that it reflects deep partisan divides and the strategic maneuvers of President Trump [2][30][28] - The shutdown is a result of the failure to pass the federal budget due to disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties, particularly over healthcare funding and immigration policies [11][22][28] - Historical context is provided, noting that the U.S. government has experienced 14 shutdowns in the past, with durations ranging from one day to a record 35 days [9][43] Group 2 - Trump's attitude towards the shutdown has shifted from trying to avoid it to seemingly welcoming it, indicating a strategic use of the situation to achieve political goals [30][32][36] - The article discusses the potential consequences of the shutdown, including economic losses estimated at $400 million per day and significant impacts on federal employees and public services [43][44][42] - The financial markets appear to have absorbed the initial shock of the shutdown, with major indices showing resilience, although concerns may arise if the shutdown extends beyond two weeks [57][58]

Group 1 - Silver prices are showing a weak trend, currently at $36.70 per ounce with a decline of 0.11% [1] - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs set to be implemented on August 1, along with potential punitive tariffs, is impacting market sentiment [1] - Strong economic data is diminishing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like silver [1] Group 2 - Lombard Odier expresses skepticism regarding the U.S. government's fiscal plan, predicting it will worsen the fiscal outlook rather than improve it [2] - The budget plan is expected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, with potential for even higher deficits if tax cuts are made permanent [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 119% by around 2034, despite some relief from tariff revenues [2] - The anticipated economic growth rates are modest, with predictions of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis of silver indicates traders are waiting for a deeper correction before re-entering the market [3] - The mid-term upward trend remains intact, but the failure to hold the 13-year high suggests current levels are showing signs of fatigue [3] - A drop below $36.30 could lead to a support range of $35.40 to $34.87, which may attract value investors due to the strong mid-term trend structure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Finance Minister expresses confidence that the parliament will approve the budget for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 1 - The Thai government is preparing for the fiscal year 2026 budget proposal [1] - The approval of the budget is seen as crucial for the country's economic planning and development [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. International Trade Court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2 is invalid, stating that tariff regulation is a power reserved for Congress, not the President [3][6] - The White House has responded by claiming that the judges are unauthorized to comment on Trump's tariff policy, indicating that Trump will likely continue to push for tariffs, potentially escalating the legal battle to the Supreme Court or Congress [5][6] - This ruling marks the first significant legal challenge to Trump's policies, reflecting a strong signal of opposition within the U.S. legal system [6] Group 2 - Elon Musk has officially distanced himself from the Trump administration by resigning from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), indicating a shift in his stance towards Trump [8] - Musk has previously criticized Trump, particularly regarding the administration's fiscal budget, which he believes contradicts the goals of DOGE [8] - The decline in Tesla's stock price has intensified Musk's feelings of discontent towards Trump's policies [9]