Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a mixed performance in consumption, investment, and production, with service consumption declining and durable goods showing weak performance [1] - In terms of investment, the real estate sector remains weak despite policy optimizations in major cities, with new home sales not improving significantly [1] - The export market is experiencing a rise in port capacity demand due to the upcoming Christmas stocking season, while domestic export freight rates are declining, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments [1] Group 2 - Overall production activity is showing signs of recovery, with a stable Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a majority decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2025, likely linked to strong equity market performance and improved inflation data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment due to factors such as the delay of interest - rate cut expectations and uncertain trade situations, with the domestic refined copper production expected to remain high in July and downstream demand being weak [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Although the aluminum ingot inventory is at a low level, the supply of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season, so the inventory accumulation in July may be higher than last year [3]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the suppression of weak domestic consumption [4]. - The zinc price is under pressure to decline because of high expectations of zinc ingot supply, significant inventory accumulation, and the ebb of the commodity bullish atmosphere [5]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. There is a short - term shortage of tin ore supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited [6][7]. - The nickel price has limited upward space. With the supply exceeding demand, it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The lithium carbonate price has limited upward space. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to the return to the fundamentals after the range - bound trading [10]. - The alumina futures price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall commodity market sentiment [12]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to the off - season of consumption and slow inventory reduction [14]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy has strong upward resistance. Under the off - season background, the supply and demand are both weak, and the price mainly follows the cost end [16]. Summary by Metals Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.69% to $9784/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2125 to 97400 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.9%. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 10000 tons over the weekend, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. The import of domestic copper spot suffered a loss of about 1100 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed down 1.31% to $2563/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the aluminum bar inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee rebounded, but the spot trading was still not smooth. LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 37.1 million tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 2.2% [3]. Lead - On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.48% to 17212 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 19 to $2043.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.48 million tons. The primary supply is at a high level, the secondary supply is in short supply, and the lead - acid battery price has stopped falling and stabilized [4]. Zinc - On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.41% to 22049 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 50 to $2695.5/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 8.91 million tons. The supply of zinc ore is at a high level, and the TC is rising [5]. Tin - On July 7, 2025, the tin price fell with the non - ferrous sector. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 263520 yuan/ton, down 1.40%. The domestic supply of tin ore is in short supply in the short term, and the terminal demand is in the off - season [6][7]. Nickel - On Monday, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120540 yuan/ton, down 1.41%, and the LME main contract closed at $15130/ton, down 0.85%. The supply of nickel exceeds demand, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat with the previous day. The LC2509 contract closed at 63660 yuan, up 0.60%. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upward space is limited [10]. Alumina - On July 7, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 3028 yuan/ton. The spot price in each region remained unchanged. The import window is closed. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall commodity market sentiment [11][12]. Stainless Steel - On Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12640 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The social inventory decreased to 115.68 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract closed down 0.78% to 19750 yuan/ton. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased to 2.27 million tons. The price has strong upward resistance [16].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the easing of trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. In China, although May exports were slightly lower than expected, the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; different commodity sectors also have corresponding trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Global and Domestic Situation**: Overseas, the hope of easing trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data alleviated concerns about an impending economic slowdown, increasing global risk appetite. In China, May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - **Asset Performance and Suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Among commodities, black commodities are expected to rebound at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be long; precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to be long [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, football concepts, and rare earths, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly [4]. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The market's trading logic mainly focuses on changes in US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold rose slightly due to the weakening dollar, and silver maintained a strong upward trend. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: May's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there were concerns in employment data. The ISM manufacturing PMI was at a low level, and inflation expectations remained high, accumulating stagflation risks. There is still uncertainty in the trade situation. Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch-up growth, and the gold-silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Pay attention to the weekly CPI price index to judge the Fed's policy path [5]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the new round of China-US trade negotiations brought the possibility of easing global trade tensions. The market is also closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rose slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Demand has recovered to a certain extent, but the recovery amplitude is still limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the futures structure has weakened following the spot. Inventory destocking has stagnated recently, and it is advisable to continue to follow the high-level fluctuations of crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's start-up has increased slightly recently, and the demand for PX will increase in the future. The supply pattern will remain tight, but the PX price has declined recently, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - **PTA**: The basis of PTA remains high, but the monthly spread has declined significantly. The supply of the upstream of the polyester end will increase in the short term, and the pattern of downstream load reduction is unlikely to change. The basis has probably reached a stage high recently [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol has not been significantly destocked, and the cost pricing logic still exerts pressure on the futures market. The supply of ethylene glycol will increase significantly in the future, and the downstream start-up has decreased month-on-month. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern recently [8]. - **Short Fiber**: Short fiber generally maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The recovery speed of terminal orders is significantly lower than expected, and the price of short fiber has begun to weaken. It is expected to continue to operate weakly and volatile in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol at the port maintains a volatile trend, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory in the inland and at the port has increased simultaneously. It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the price still has room to decline in the medium and long term [8]. - **PP**: The domestic market quotation of PP is mainly stable, and the inventory has increased after the holiday. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure and the center of gravity will move down [9]. - **LLDPE**: The price of the polyethylene market has been adjusted, and the inventory has increased. The production expectation suppresses the price, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China-US negotiation has entered a deep stage, and it is difficult to exceed expectations greatly. The copper mine supply is relatively tight, but the production of electrolytic copper is at a high level. The demand is approaching the off-season, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline significantly, but the market expectation is weak. The demand may weaken marginally, and the inventory destocking will slow down or even accumulate [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight in the domestic real market, and the production rate has declined. The demand is in the off-season, and the inventory has decreased. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and the tin price is expected to continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [12]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the net selling of CBOT grain commodity funds increased. The meteorological conditions in the US soybean producing areas are good, and the sowing progress is fast. The USDA's June supply and demand report may have a neutral impact on the market. Pay attention to the end-of-month report on the estimated soybean planting area [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: China's soybean imports in May increased significantly year-on-year. The pressure of concentrated arrivals of domestic imports has been realized, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been quickly repaired. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal lack a stable upward driving force [13][14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The opening of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybean oil has continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market has increased. Pay attention to changes in China-Canada trade policies [15]. - **Palm Oil**: The energy market is under pressure to decline in the medium and long term, and the external油脂 market is under pressure. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the inventory is low. The inventory has increased slightly recently [15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the incremental supply of group farms and the expectation of weight reduction and pressure release in the market are gradually realized, pig prices may continue to be weakly adjusted. There may be a supplementary increase in the near-month contract [16]. - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by wheat policies and is quoted strongly. The short-term upward pressure on the spot and futures prices still exists, but after the wheat harvest, the corn demand will return, and it is still an easy-to-rise and difficult-to-fall market [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a period of tariff easing, leading to a rebound in exports while domestic demand shows increasing divergence [1] Group 2 - High-frequency data indicates a mixed performance in consumption, with strong automobile sales [1] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating, while real estate sales show marginal improvement amidst a sluggish land market [1] - Exports are rebounding rapidly, supported by resilient overseas demand, with port data and export freight rates rising quickly due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] Group 3 - Production is exhibiting a trend of industry divergence, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and there is an accelerated reduction in steel inventories [1] Group 4 - Price performance is generally subdued, with most high-frequency indicators related to CPI and PPI showing a downward trend [1] - In terms of liquidity, the US dollar index has significantly declined, while the Chinese yuan continues to appreciate [1]