近期，国泰基金、招商基金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年度策略会，多位基 金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药等热门板块的后续投资机遇展开深度探讨。 展望2026年，有业内人士表示，市场值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利 +估值"双重驱动。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，相关产业政策及宏观经济支持政策值得期待。明年上 市公司整体业绩有望进一步改善，结构性亮点大概率增多，有利于提高市场风险偏好。当前A股自由流 通市值与居民存款的比值仍然处于相对较低的水平，股票市场或迎来更多新增资金。此外，当前市场估 值结构较为健康，并未出现整体过热的情况。 企业整体业绩大概率提升 从宏观层面来看，招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛认为，中国经济增长模式逐渐转向创新驱动，基建 和高技术产业拉动经济增长。权益方面，市场目前开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮动逻辑驱动的行情。综 合来看，2026年消费有望缓慢抬升，出口有韧性，商品价格温和走高，进而带动名义GDP上行，企业业 绩或持续修复，这将成为市场的基本面支撑。A股行情或逐渐过渡至公司业绩支撑的"缓而慢"的格局。 国泰基金宏观策略分析师杨轶婷表示，基 ...

国泰基金宏观策略分析师杨轶婷表示，基本面正在经历周期底部的结构性转型。一方面产能出清，地产 链和消费仍有一定压力；另一方面中游制造生产韧性超出预期，科技产业取得积极进展，新兴行业出现 结构性亮点。国内流动性短期略显震荡，但中期财政货币稳增长仍有望保持流动性宽裕，政策持续鼓励 长期资金入市，健全资本市场。 在汇丰晋信基金股票研究总监、基金经理闵良超看来，2026年的盈利大概率会上行。"此前，供给端的 较大增速使得需求的增加没有跟上供给的增加，因此不少中游制造业面临价格的持续下跌。但到了2026 年，这一轮的产能供给周期已经到了尾声，产能供给压力已经释放得比较充分。因此，供需压力有望反 转，可以期待整个企业端的盈利弹性。"闵良超表示，"我们认为2026年的资本市场可能在盈利好转的情 况下较为乐观，甚至市场可能由估值驱动转为盈利驱动。" "对明年的权益市场依旧乐观！"多位基金经理在近期的策略会上公开发声。 近期，国泰基金、招商基金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年年度策略会，多位 基金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药等多个热门板块的投资机遇展开深度探讨。 展望2026年，有业内人士表示，市场仍值得 ...

"对明年的权益市场依旧乐观！"多位基金经理在近期的策略会上公开发声。 近期，国泰基金、招商基金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年年度策略会，多位 基金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药等多个热门板块的投资机遇展开深度探讨。 展望2026年，有业内人士表示，市场仍值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向盈利 +估值双重驱动。此外，当前市场估值结构较为健康，暂未出现整体过热的情况。 基本面正经历周期底部的结构性转型 2025年，AI科技展现出"耀眼"行情。展望2026年，招商基金信息科学与技术产业链小组副组长杨成表 示，全球AI科技产业仍处于"大基建时代"，应用大繁荣的外部环境尚未成熟，长期机遇大于短期风险。 从宏观层面来看，招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛认为，中国经济增长模式逐渐从地产拉动转向创新 驱动，基建和高技术产业接棒房地产拉动经济增长。权益方面，市场目前开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮 动驱动的行情。A股有望从估值抬升带来的"急而促"行情逐渐过渡到盈利支撑的"缓而慢"的行情。 国泰基金宏观策略分析师杨轶婷表示，基本面正在经历周期底部的结构性转型。一方面产能出清，地产 链和消费仍有一定 ...

2026年将至之际，12月19日，招商基金召开2026年度内部投资策略会，汇聚内外部投研力量，围绕宏观 经济和投资策略进行展望，并就AI科技和周期地产等重点关注方向剖析细分赛道机遇与挑战。 宏观经济： 宏观稳态、结构分化与科创突进 回顾2025年经济增长表现，前三个季度GDP同比增长5.2%，超过5%目标。招商基金研究部首席经济学 家李湛认为，"两新两重"政策使内需体现出引擎作用，消费与制造业投资对GDP增长形成支撑，出口对 GDP增长拉动仅次于消费。流动性总体充裕、结构分化，近三年物价也稳定在低位水平，政策目标以稳 为主和经济结构转变共同造就"新稳态"：过去三年GDP增速目标保持在5%左右，经济从"增量追赶"转 向了"质稳量优"的成熟阶段。国内经济当前主线更多在于经济转型，即经济动能转向更多由消费和科技 创新共同驱动，在"稳规模"的同时更聚焦"调结构"，为中长期高质量发展夯实基础。 "新稳态"下，经济增长模式逐渐从地产拉动转向创新驱动，基建和高技术产业接棒房地产拉动经济增 长。 回到权益市场，已开启一轮估值修复与资产轮动驱动的行情。综合来看，2026年投资有望低位企稳，消 费缓慢抬升，出口有韧性，价格温和改 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is reassessing Chinese assets, with significant inflows into the technology sector and optimistic forecasts for corporate earnings growth in China [2][4][10]. Group 1: Earnings Growth Predictions - Goldman Sachs analysts predict a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2026 and a 12% growth in 2027, which is expected to boost the performance of the Chinese stock market [4][10]. - The report indicates that the MSCI China Index constituents' performance could increase by approximately 1.5% annually until 2030 due to growth in overseas revenue [5]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflows - As of December 20, 2025, global investments in Chinese asset ETFs have seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most significant inflow of $9.5 billion, primarily from the US and Europe [9]. - Domestic ETFs accounted for $78.6 billion of the inflow, while foreign ETFs saw a net inflow of about $4.5 billion [9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for foreign investment, with six out of the top ten foreign inflow ETFs being technology-focused, each receiving over $2 billion [9]. - Analysts from various institutions, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, express confidence in the recovery of Chinese technology stocks, indicating that the growth momentum is still in its early stages [10]. Group 4: Global Investor Sentiment - Global investors are increasingly interested in exploring investment opportunities in China, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, recognizing their strong growth potential [6]. - Clients from emerging markets, including Mexico and Chile, are actively investing in Chinese assets, viewing the technology sector as crucial for long-term growth and diversification [6].

Core Viewpoint - Nobikang (2635.HK), an AI technology company, is launching its IPO from today until December 18, with a share price range of HKD 80 to HKD 106, aiming to raise up to HKD 401 million [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The company is offering 3.7866 million shares, with 10% allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and the remaining for international placement [1] - The expected listing date for the shares is December 23 [1] - The entry fee for one board lot of 50 shares is HKD 5,353.45 [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately 40% of the net proceeds from the IPO will be used to continue research and development of core technologies [1] - Another 40% is allocated for the construction of a research and development technology center and a new headquarters [1] - About 10% will be used to seek potential strategic investments and acquisition opportunities, with the remaining 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a strong economic growth effect from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) passed by the Trump administration in 2025, starting in 2026, leading to a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic environment in the U.S. with moderate growth and inflation [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has transitioned from a three-year "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," characterized by improved cost structures, strong earnings revisions, and released pent-up demand, creating a typical early-cycle environment [2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to initiate a new capital expenditure cycle, with corporate investments, particularly in AI and manufacturing, becoming new growth engines [2]. Market Dynamics - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia and Google, will continue to lead earnings revisions in 2025, with expectations spreading to the S&P 493 constituents, particularly in industrial and financial sectors [6]. - Morgan Stanley defines the current situation as a "second phase bull market under rolling recovery," emphasizing a return of market risk appetite and broadening investment opportunities across various sectors [6][15]. Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley recommends an "overweight" position in cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary goods, while suggesting a "low weight" in staples and real estate [13][14]. - The firm anticipates that the S&P 500 index could reach 9,000 points by 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings growth and AI-related capital expenditures [11]. Broader Market Trends - The market is expected to shift focus from defensive to offensive strategies, with AI remaining a key investment theme but not the sole driver of the upcoming bull market [9]. - The anticipated "risk reboot year" in 2026 will see a significant focus on microeconomic factors, with a unique combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies providing a strong boost to risk markets [11][14].

风起香江。当投资者还在热议全球市场短期波动时，港股市场正以"黑马"之姿领跑全球主要市场。 2025年以来，港股市场迎来显著回暖，恒生指数年内上涨近30%，恒生科技指数亦录得25%以上涨幅，在全球资本市场中走出强势行情。这轮上涨并非偶 然，而是估值优势、资产质量提升、资金持续流入与市场生态重塑多重因素共振的结果。 在此背景下，港股市场正从离岸市场的"彼岸"色彩中逐渐蜕变，成为映射中国科技发展与经济复苏的核心资产池，其长期投资价值也正被市场深度发掘。 估值锚定安全边际 产业布局贴合核心赛道 更为关键的是，从AI科技到生物医疗，从消费升级到高端制造，港股已成为观察中国新经济发展的重要窗口。在全球科技革命浪潮背景下，港股市场更 是已经汇聚国内AI完整产业链，包括底层算力硬件、中层大模型与技术平台，以及多元应用场景平台。 与此同时，越来越多A股优质龙头企业宣布赴港上市，进一步充实了港股的资产"家底"，让港股市场得以充分共享中国经济转型与产业升级的红利。 Wind数据显示，今年香港股票市场平均每日交易额超过2000亿港元，较去年翻一番。截至12月2日，香港有91个IPO募资，总金额达2590.65亿港元。 新股市场的赚钱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index are attributed to a battle between bullish and bearish factors, alongside a transformation in market structure. Compared to historical instances, the current A-share market shows significant advantages in growth logic, valuation levels, and industrial foundation, suggesting a potential for a more stable mid-to-long-term market trend as multiple positive factors continue to unfold [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Fluctuations - The 4000-point level serves as a crucial psychological barrier, leading to intense market fluctuations due to the clash of bullish and bearish sentiments. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points on October 29, 2023, but subsequently fell below this level, indicating ongoing volatility [2][3]. - The internal structure of the market reveals that sector rotation and profit-taking demands are direct causes of the fluctuations. The recent rally has been primarily driven by AI technology stocks, which have seen rapid short-term gains, leading to adjustments as investors lock in profits [3][5]. Group 2: Market Structure Changes - The current market structure, valuation levels, and growth logic have undergone profound changes compared to previous instances of the index reaching 4000 points. The contribution of technology stocks to the index's rise has significantly increased, with their weight in the index rising from less than 5% in 2015 to 17% now [6]. - Valuation comparisons indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio remains relatively reasonable, fluctuating between 16-17 times, compared to historical PE ratios that often exceeded 20-30 times when the index previously reached 4000 points [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current fluctuations, many institutions maintain a positive outlook for the A-share market, believing it can surpass the historical "curse" associated with the 4000-point level. Factors supporting this optimism include a low interest rate environment, ongoing industrial upgrades, and supportive policies aimed at encouraging investment and financing [7][8]. - The market is expected to transition from a previous focus on technology stocks to a more balanced structure, with an emphasis on sectors that demonstrate strong performance and growth potential. Investment strategies may include a "barbell" approach, focusing on both high-growth technology stocks and undervalued defensive sectors [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes maintaining low positions and waiting for market stabilization signals due to recent significant market declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.90% and the CSI 500 Index by 5.78% [3][4] - The current market sentiment is under pressure from both domestic and international factors, including weak economic indicators in China and a negative impact from the U.S. tech sector's performance [4][5] - The recommendation is to remain cautious and maintain low positions, particularly in the main board, as there are no signs of increased institutional investment or a bottom-buying signal yet [5] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the short-term economic indicators in China are weakening, with the LPR rates remaining unchanged, which does not meet some investors' expectations [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policies are seen as a significant factor in the current market adjustments, with the latest unemployment rate in the U.S. rising to 4.4%, indicating a weakening job market [4] - The technical analysis suggests that the market has not yet triggered a bottom-buying signal, and the trend has shifted to a broad decline rather than sector rotation [5]