每周思考总第655期 技术面上，尚未触发底部买入信号。 伴随11月后市场风险偏好下降，原本的周期与科技的轮动 特征转变为了普跌，目前机构资金也尚未出现增量入场迹象，维持市场调整观点不变。 主板择时观点： 上周标题明确提示的再减仓至低仓位的信号精准规避本周市场大跌，A股资金面虽与 美国不直接关联但市场情绪趋同，短期谨慎市场情绪有待消化，建议维持 低仓位 耐心等待下一个企 稳信号。 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 观点简述： 上周市场大幅下跌，沪深300指数周涨幅-3.77%，上证综指周涨幅-3.90%，中证500指数周涨 幅-5.78%。上周观点中明确 标题 提示"A股减仓 " ，本周国内市场在基本面技术面消息面共振下如期 出现显著调整。 基本面上，短期消息面中期仍是基本面压制。 国内方面，消息面上虽有荷兰对安世行政令暂停 的部分利多，但单周美国AI科技企业的连续领跌依旧继续强化对A股风险偏好的压制，而国内10月经 济各项指标的再度走弱是市场调整的中期原因未变，本月长短期LPR利率均继续维持不下调也低 ...

金博会现场，工行深圳市分行的展台前人头攒动。 工行深圳市分行展位部分产品展示。 在科技金融展区，观众的目光聚焦在一架外骨骼机器人上。碳纤维材质的机器人正在帮助体验者尝试各 类动作，整体显得尤为轻盈。这项产品正是来自深圳市肯綮科技有限公司，其已经是国内外骨骼机器人 四大头部厂商，展出的量产型号"π"外骨骼已经在泰山、黄山等景区规模运营。 在企业发展的关键期，深圳工行给予全方位的金融支持，帮助其实现技术转化落地、扩大生产规模、加 强市场推广，进而完成产品的规模化销售和品牌知名度的提升。 深圳是全国科技创新高地，在这里，每平方公里孕育着超12.5家国家级高新技术企业，PCT国际专利申 请量更是连续21年居全国首位。像肯綮科技这样的科技企业因"高技术、高成长、轻资产"的特性，往往 与银行传统信贷逻辑存在错位。如何破解科技企业的融资难题，为深圳城市发展持续注入鲜活动力？深 圳工行在活动现场展示了其在产品、机制、技术三方面的成果，全方位呈现适配科技企业发展的金融服 务体系。 市民在工行深圳市分行展位现场参与体验互动。 11月19日上午，第十九届深圳国际金融博览会(以下简称"金博会")在深圳会展中心(福田)开幕，本届金 博 ...

Market Overview - The global stock markets are showing divergence, with A-shares experiencing a V-shaped reversal, while US stocks recorded a "four consecutive declines" [1] - Despite the major indices in A-shares closing with little change, there is significant internal market divergence, with the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rising by 0.58%, while nearly 4,600 stocks declined, indicating a shift of funds towards blue-chip stocks [1] Stock Performance - Several previously hot stocks, such as Sanmu Group and Hainan Haiyao, experienced significant drops, even hitting the daily limit down, reflecting a notable cooling of short-term speculative sentiment [2] Sector Focus: Aquaculture - Aquaculture stocks surged, with Zhongshui Fishery hitting four consecutive trading limits, and other stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products and Zhangzidao also reaching their daily limits [3] - A report from Changjiang Securities predicts a significant recovery in China's aquaculture industry by 2025, with major aquatic product prices rebounding to historical highs. For instance, the price of grass carp reached 14 yuan per kilogram, up 25% from the beginning of the year [4] Industry Insights - The price recovery is seen as a result of the industry undergoing a necessary adjustment after two years of stockpiling from 2023 to 2024. The development of marine ranching is highlighted as a key driver for sustainable marine fishery development [5] - Coastal provinces in China are establishing national-level marine ranch demonstration zones, focusing on diversified models such as "fishery +", "ecology +", and "new energy +", achieving breakthroughs in various fields [5] Technology Sector: Nvidia Earnings - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is viewed as a critical event that could influence the trajectory of AI technology stocks. The market expects revenues between $55.2 billion and $56 billion, with a growth rate exceeding 56% [6][7] - If Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations, it could reverse the current "de-risking" sentiment, potentially stabilizing leading AI stocks in the US and impacting Hong Kong tech stocks [8] Broader Market Implications - The A-share technology market is closely tied to global AI industry trends and US tech stock performance. Key signals to watch include the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December and the third-quarter earnings of overseas tech stocks, which could significantly affect A-share tech stocks and global risk assets [9]

李晶昀 AI图 不过，此类品种对指数的推力相对有限，因此，当上证综指在盘中击穿4000点后，长线资金迅速加大配 置力度，主要流向大市值品种。其中，沪市总市值前十名的个股均拉出红盘，其中，农业银行 （601288）、工商银行（601398）等品种在盘中创出历史新高（含复权）。正因如此，上证综指在午市 后收敛跌幅，收盘时重新回到4000点整数关口。 城门立木重塑A股定价逻辑 由此可见，长线资金对大市值品种以及主要股指有了较强的牵引能力。值得指出的是，农业银行的市净 率已回到1倍，市盈率回到10倍，股息率已不足3%，但仍然在周三盘中再创历史新高，且在大市值品种 中具有明显的领涨色彩。 面对如此的走势，有分析人士指出，这可能意味着长线资金的战略是通过农业银行的涨升来"城门立 木"，既表明长线资金不仅仅有了重新定价中国优质资产的意愿，也表明了他们有了重新定价中国资产 的能力。而且，不仅仅是在A股，港股亦如是。因为在周三港股交易中，中国海洋石油（00883）、中 国移动（00941）等大市值品种也相继创出了历史新高（含复权）。由于此类品种是南向资金在今年以 来密集加仓的品种，而以险资为代表的长线资金也是南向资金的核心组成 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 金财控股 (Jincai Holdings) - **Industry**: Biotechnology and AI for Science Core Business and Model - 金财控股 focuses on using AI and robotics to empower drug discovery and new materials, operating as a research and development service platform [2][7][9] - The company has over 300 global clients, including 17 of the top 20 multinational pharmaceutical companies, showcasing its industry-leading technology platform [2][8] Recent Developments - A significant collaboration with 礼来 (Eli Lilly) was established, valued at approximately $350 million, involving AI-enabled large molecule antibody drug development [3][17] - Two AI-developed molecules for hair growth have been registered as cosmetic ingredients in the U.S. and received FDA approval, indicating successful application of AI technology in consumer products [2][3] Financial Performance and Market Position - The company went public on June 13, 2024, becoming the first listed company in the specialized technology and AI for Science sector, with over 43% of shares held through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2][6] - Major institutional investors, including Vanguard and BlackRock, have invested in the company, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth [2][6] Competitive Advantage - Unlike traditional Chinese pharmaceutical companies that transfer pipelines to large overseas firms after significant investment, 金财控股 shares R&D costs and outcomes with clients, ensuring stable long-term development [5][9] - The company’s unique fee structure covers the entire lifecycle of drug development, significantly shortening the R&D cycle from 4-6 years to approximately 2 years [9][11] AI and Robotics in Drug Development - AI enhances drug discovery by overcoming human experience limitations, allowing for multi-target and multi-property optimization, which significantly reduces time and costs while increasing success rates [10][11] - The 24/7 operation of robotic laboratories improves experimental efficiency and accumulates high-quality data for further AI training, creating a rapid iterative feedback loop [11][12] Market Potential and Future Outlook - The hair growth product developed showed an 80% effectiveness rate in a trial with 100 participants, indicating substantial market potential, as approximately 2.5 billion people globally suffer from hair loss [15] - The company anticipates maintaining a growth rate of 50-70% annually, excluding unexpected large orders [17] Impact of External Factors - The company is insulated from U.S.-China tensions as it focuses on preclinical research and does not handle sensitive clinical trial data [18] - The company has received recognition for its data capabilities, winning a national award for data elements, which is crucial for enhancing AI algorithms [19][23] Conclusion - 金财控股 is positioned as a leader in the biotechnology sector, leveraging AI and robotics to innovate drug discovery and development, with a robust business model that emphasizes collaboration and shared success with clients. The company's strategic partnerships and technological advancements suggest a promising future in both pharmaceutical and materials science markets.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that southbound capital has achieved a record net inflow of over 1.3 trillion HKD this year, with cumulative net inflows surpassing 5 trillion HKD since the launch of the Stock Connect program [2][19]. - The technology sector remains a key focus for capital inflows in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) rising by 30.4% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) increasing by 44.19% this year [3]. - Despite the market being in an adjustment phase, multiple positive signals, including domestic planning, improved international relations, and continued inflows of southbound capital, are providing new momentum for the Hong Kong stock market [5]. Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a significant correction of over 10% from its year-to-date high, but the current macro environment is less uncertain compared to previous months, suggesting a lower probability of extreme corrections [6][10]. - Analysts from major investment banks predict that the overall revenue growth rate for leading internet companies will remain in the range of 10%-15%, with improvements in adjusted net profit margins and free cash flow due to ongoing cost reduction strategies [11]. - The article emphasizes that if upcoming earnings reports exceed expectations, it could significantly boost market confidence and lead to a rebound in stock prices [14]. Group 3 - The valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) trading at a PE (TTM) of 23.09, which is at the 30.75% historical percentile since its inception [16]. - Compared to global technology indices, the valuations of the Hang Seng Technology and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETFs are significantly lower than that of the Nasdaq Index, which stands at approximately 42.5 [17]. - The article notes that long-term stable foreign capital inflows have been significant, with predictions of an additional 1.54 trillion HKD in southbound long-term capital by the end of next year, indicating a strong future demand for quality assets in the Hong Kong market [24]. Group 4 - The rise of AI technology has made core AI assets highly sought after globally, with major technology companies in Hong Kong becoming central to this trend [28][32]. - These technology giants are positioned favorably in the AI revolution, possessing vast amounts of high-quality data and significant capital expenditure capabilities necessary for training large models [33]. - The article concludes that the core AI technology companies in Hong Kong represent the most dynamic and innovative segment of the Chinese economy, capable of attracting global capital and driving the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market [34].

Core Viewpoint - Tianyu Digital Science (002354) is entering the electricity sales sector as an "intelligent carbon service provider," leveraging AI and data analytics to optimize energy management and reduce costs for enterprises in various industries [1][2]. Company Overview - Tianyu Digital Science's subsidiary, Zhongke Electricity Sales (Liaoning) Co., Ltd., was established in August 2024 with a registered capital of 20.4 million RMB, focusing on electricity trading, energy modeling, and comprehensive energy management [1]. - The company has obtained electricity trading qualifications in regions such as Liaoning, Hainan, and Shaanxi [1]. Business Model and Strategy - The company aims to create a digital energy service platform that integrates data and algorithms with electricity trading and carbon management, addressing the complex needs of enterprises under the "dual carbon" goals [2]. - The AI-driven electricity sales model emphasizes proactive, data-driven decision-making, moving away from traditional passive approaches [3]. AI Sales Model - The AI sales model is characterized by a two-way, proactive, and preemptive approach, linking electricity consumption and purchasing to optimize decision-making [3]. - The model utilizes a self-developed foundational model that incorporates vast amounts of market, weather, and consumption data to enhance operational efficiency [5]. Key Functionalities of the AI Model - The model performs three main functions: precise load forecasting, dynamic electricity pricing strategies, and real-time deviation control to ensure alignment between electricity consumption and purchasing [5]. - The company has successfully reduced electricity costs for over 200 industrial users by more than 10 million RMB through these services [5]. Intelligent Applications - New intelligent power terminals provide three capabilities: precise energy insights, intelligent optimization and control, and deep value empowerment to guide energy-saving decisions [6]. Target Industries and Applications - The company customizes strategies for high-energy-consuming sectors like data centers, focusing on a combination of long-term, spot, and green electricity purchasing [7]. - In manufacturing, services include production scheduling optimization based on time-of-use electricity pricing signals to reduce energy costs [8]. Green Energy Services - The company has developed an integrated green electricity service system that combines various renewable energy sources and offers full-process green certificate trading services to manufacturers [8]. National Expansion Plans - The company is expanding its operations nationwide, with a strategy centered around Liaoning and plans to establish a service network across key regions such as Guangdong and Zhejiang [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of cautious sentiment and external catalysts, with funds shifting from the previously high-performing tech growth sector to defensive sectors like banking and coal. However, the outlook remains optimistic, particularly for AI industry investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market fluctuations have been influenced by cautious sentiment and external news, leading to a shift of funds from tech growth stocks to defensive sectors [1]. - The AI technology sector has regained prominence in Q3, driven by rapid advancements in domestic and international industries, increased capital expenditure on computing power, and evolving models and applications [1]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on equity market investment opportunities for several reasons: 1. Current policies are very proactive and precise [1]. 2. The macroeconomic environment is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with a defined "moderately loose monetary policy" [1]. 3. Global capital is recognizing the investment value of high-quality Chinese assets amid changing international dynamics [1]. 4. AI technological advancements are expected to usher in a new wave of innovation, creating investment opportunities in emerging industries [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the robust growth of NetDragon's gaming business, particularly the strong long-term operational capabilities of the "Magic Domain" IP series, supported by AI production centers that enhance cost efficiency and gaming experience [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 4.86 billion, 5.31 billion, and 5.84 billion CNY, and net profits of 450 million, 650 million, and 830 million CNY for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The report assigns a target price of 16.7 HKD for 2025, based on a valuation of 18x PE, and initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The company is strategically investing in multiple lines within AI technology and the broader entertainment sector, including a partnership with Zhongke Wenge to develop AI models and applications outside mainland China [2] - In 2023, NetDragon invested 20 million USD in Rokid and signed a five-year strategic cooperation agreement to enhance the interaction between high-quality education and gaming with Rokid's hardware ecosystem [2] - The company is positioning itself in the group broadcasting sector by holding a 46% stake in Hangzhou ShuaiKu Network Technology, which is a leading international MCN agency with over 700 million fans and significant monthly engagement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slow bull pattern, but increased volatility in September has introduced uncertainties due to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and the upcoming Q3 earnings reports [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a slow bull pattern this year, but September saw increased volatility and a fluctuating market environment [1] - The U.S. government shutdown and renewed tariff impacts have added uncertainty to the market [1] - Many private equity firms have adjusted their investment strategies in anticipation of the October market [1] Group 2: Private Equity Insights - Fusheng Asset has achieved impressive performance in September and is optimistic about the overall market, focusing on industries with improving earnings [3][4] - Dongfang Gangwan remains bullish on the AI industry, believing that the current AI computing power bubble is still in its early stages and valuations are reasonable [6] - Stable Investment maintains a diversified portfolio strategy, preferring a "blooming everywhere" market approach and has slightly increased exposure to the electronics sector [8] Group 3: Sector Focus - Juming Investment has slightly increased its allocation to energy storage and resources, recognizing the rising value of these sectors [20] - Renqiao Asset believes that undervalued stocks will see corrections, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence in the market [21] - Xizang Yuanlesheng Asset has optimized its internal structure by reducing exposure to technology stocks and increasing investments in manufacturing sectors [23][24] Group 4: Economic and Policy Outlook - Ning Shui Capital warns of overheating risks in certain sectors and emphasizes the importance of Q3 earnings verification and policy implementation [12][13] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull pattern, but short-term liquidity-driven fluctuations may occur, particularly around significant meetings in October [10] - Starstone Investment highlights the need to focus on changes in profitability and identifies five key investment lines for future growth [22]