证券研究报告·海外公司深度·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 海底捞（06862.HK） 破局求变，征帆四海 2026 年 03 月 02 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 41,622 | 42,755 | 42,969 | 45,545 | 48,547 | | 同比(%) | 33.66 | 2.72 | 0.50 | 5.99 | 6.59 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,499 | 4,708 | 4,278 | 4,748 | 5,165 | | 同比(%) | 227.33 | 4.65 | (9.14) | 10.99 | 8.79 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.93 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.91 | 18.07 | 19.89 | 17.92 | 16.47 | [Table_Tag] [Ta ...

◼ 风险提示：餐饮市场竞争加剧、原料成本上涨、品牌老化客户流失风险。 证券研究报告·海外公司深度·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 海底捞（06862.HK） 破局求变，征帆四海 2026 年 03 月 02 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 41,622 | 42,755 | 42,969 | 45,545 | 48,547 | | 同比(%) | 33.66 | 2.72 | 0.50 | 5.99 | 6.59 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,499 | 4,708 | 4,278 | 4,748 | 5,165 | | 同比(%) | 227.33 | 4.65 | (9.14) | 10.99 | 8.79 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.93 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.91 | 18.07 | 19.8 ...

多数板块过半披露，旅游景区业绩回暖 从披露率来看：除专业服务板块外其他子板块披露率过半，其中体育板块2家上市公司均已披露业绩预 告。从预盈率来看：旅游及景区板块业绩逐渐回暖，13家已披露业绩预告的上市公司中有8家预计盈 利；专业服务板块表现稳健，预盈率过半；其余板块表现不佳，体育板块上市公司均预计亏损。从子板 块预告类型占比来看，旅游及景区业绩持续承压，但行业回暖呈现积极信号，扭亏为盈的公司占比由 8%大幅提升至23%；酒店餐饮业绩向好，2家公司预增，亏损占比下降；专业服务稳中向好，略增占比 提升，其余类型占比变化不大；教育板块业绩表现不佳，10家公司中7家持续亏损，1家首次亏损。 风险因素：自然灾害和安全事故风险，政策风险，宏观经济不及预期风险，统计偏误风险。 截至2026年2月15日，社服板块共有42家上市公司发布2025年业绩预告，行业披露率为49%，整体预盈 率为45%，在消费八大行业中排行第六。我国消费结构正从商品消费主导转向商品与服务消费并重，以 体验为核心的服务消费有望成为主要增长引擎。 披露率近半，业绩整体承压 截至2026年2月15日，社会服务行业共计85家A股公司，已有42家发布业绩预告， ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities projects that Yujian Xiaomian (02408) will achieve adjusted net profits of 135 million, 235 million, and 351 million yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 111%, 74%, and 49% respectively. The company is expected to enjoy a reasonable valuation premium due to its successful new model validation and rapid store expansion, with a target stock price range of 7.8-8.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 34-41% from the latest closing price, and is rated "Outperform" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yujian Xiaomian, founded in 2014 by Song Qi in Guangzhou, is recognized as the first listed company in the Chinese noodle restaurant sector, focusing on standardized operations with a core product matrix centered around classic Chongqing noodles, complemented by rice dishes, snacks, and beverages. The main meal packages are priced at approximately 20-25 yuan, showcasing a clear cost-performance advantage [1] - The company has undergone multiple rounds of financing and is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2025. The controlling shareholders hold a combined stake of 45.98%, with the founder having experience in leading Western fast-food chains, which has laid a solid foundation for the company's standardized operational system [1] - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 1.154 billion yuan, a 44.2% increase, with direct store and franchise service revenues accounting for 86.7% and 13.2% respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 64 million yuan, reflecting a 36.0% growth. The profit announcement indicates that the adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 125 million and 140 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 95.6%-119.1%, with the number of stores reaching 503, a 39.7% increase [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Chinese noodle restaurant market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan, with strong growth potential in the Sichuan-Chongqing segment. The industry has evolved through three phases: regional decentralized operations (before 2010), chain emergence and capital support (2010-2021), and industry reshuffling (2022-present). High-quality leaders with standardized and digital operational capabilities are expected to accelerate consolidation and growth [2] - According to Frost & Sullivan data, the market size of Chinese noodle restaurants is expected to reach 326 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.0% from 2025 to 2029. The Sichuan-Chongqing flavored noodle restaurants are projected to account for 25.0% of the market size in 2024, with a CAGR of about 13.2%, indicating higher growth potential in this segment [2] - The competitive landscape shows that the top five Chinese noodle brands are expected to hold a market share of approximately 2.9% in 2024, with Yujian Xiaomian currently positioned as the fourth player in the Sichuan-Chongqing noodle market [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Dashi Co., Ltd. (Domino's Pizza) Company Overview - **Company Name**: Dashi Co., Ltd. (Domino's Pizza in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau) - **Key Management Change**: In May 2017, CEO Wang Yi joined the company, initiating significant internal reforms, including local management hiring and menu optimization [3][24]. Industry Insights - **Restaurant Sector Performance**: The restaurant industry is expected to improve in 2026, with risks from previous years largely mitigated. The chain restaurant sector, particularly mid-to-high-end dining, is anticipated to benefit from consumer confidence recovery and stimulus policies [2]. - **Pizza Market Growth**: The global pizza market is projected to reach $21.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 3% from 2010 to 2024. In China, the pizza industry has a CAGR of 12% during the same period, indicating strong growth potential [10][13]. Company Performance Metrics - **Store Expansion**: As of the end of 2024, Dashi Co. had expanded to 1,008 stores across 39 cities, with plans to reach 1,300 stores in 60 cities by the end of 2025. The company exceeded its target by opening 307 new stores in 2025 [4][25]. - **Revenue Growth**: From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue CAGR was approximately 41%. Same-store sales have shown positive growth for 30 consecutive quarters [4][26]. - **Future Projections**: Revenue growth is expected to be between 20% and 25% from 2025 to 2027, with profit growth projected at 161%, 58%, and 31% for the same years [9][10]. Competitive Position - **Market Share**: Dashi Co. holds a 5.3% market share in China, ranking second after Pizza Hut, which has a 35% share. The company has been steadily increasing its market share since 2017 [15][16]. - **Global Position**: Domino's Pizza is the global leader in the pizza market with a 33% market share, significantly ahead of competitors like Little Caesars (11%) and Pizza Hut (10%) [15]. Key Growth Drivers - **Store Expansion Strategy**: The company is in a unique position to capitalize on the store expansion phase, with plans to open 300 to 350 new stores annually through 2027. The focus is on both urban and lower-tier markets [5][34]. - **Consumer Demand**: The demand for pizza in both high-tier cities (for convenience) and lower-tier cities (for celebratory occasions) supports the company's growth strategy [12][36]. Financial Insights - **Profitability**: The company has seen improvements in operating profit margins, with a projected EBITDA increase from 3.9% to 11.5% from 2021 to 2024. The operating profit reached approximately 624 million RMB by the end of 2024 [30]. - **Franchise Fees**: The franchise fee structure is deemed reasonable, with a one-time fee of approximately 1.32 billion RMB already paid by the end of 2021. Ongoing fees are around 3% of total sales, comparable to industry standards [30][31]. Challenges and Risks - **Average Order Value**: The average order value has seen a decline of 7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024, attributed to the high demand for new stores and the prioritization of dine-in services over delivery [6][37]. - **Delivery Model**: The company maintains a self-built delivery network, which is crucial for ensuring timely service. However, the delivery ratio is expected to fluctuate as new stores stabilize [19][21]. Conclusion Dashi Co., Ltd. is positioned for significant growth in the Chinese pizza market, driven by strategic store expansion, a strong brand presence, and a focus on both high-tier and lower-tier markets. The company's financial health appears robust, with positive revenue and profit projections, although challenges related to average order value and delivery logistics remain.

Core Viewpoint - Big Pizza International Holdings Limited is seeking to go public in Hong Kong, with a focus on expanding its restaurant chain significantly by 2028, while facing some public scrutiny over its pricing strategies for promotional events [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Big Pizza was founded in 2002 in Beijing and has grown to over 380 restaurants, making it the leading pizza chain in China based on GMV for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The company plans to open approximately 610 to 790 new restaurants by 2028, primarily focusing on self-operated locations [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The projected revenue for Big Pizza is expected to reach 944 million yuan in 2023 and 1.147 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue surged to 1.389 billion yuan, surpassing the total revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 66.6% [3]. Group 3: Ownership Structure - The founder, Zhao Zhiqiang, holds 52.2% of the company through Schinda, while his spouse and CFO, Ma Jifang, owns 21.8% through Lavender International. The family collectively controls about 86% of the voting rights [2]. Group 4: Public Controversy - Prior to the IPO filing, Big Pizza faced criticism for a promotional offer allowing sanitation workers to dine at a discounted price of 49.99 yuan, which some perceived as still too high [6]. - Zhao Zhiqiang responded to the criticism by stating that the pricing was based on minimum costs and emphasized customer choice regarding the offer [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][54]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the chain breakfast bun market, with a focus on expanding its new store formats to cultivate new growth curves [5][6]. - The breakfast market in China is characterized by strong demand, with a significant market size and potential for growth, particularly in the segment of Chinese-style buns [6][23]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, providing ample opportunities for consolidation, as many regional brands struggle to expand beyond their local markets due to taste preferences and low entry barriers [6][27]. - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of organic growth through new store openings and external growth via acquisitions, which is expected to drive national expansion and enhance profitability [6][39]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 30.71 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 7,357.09 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19 billion, 21.39 billion, and 23.80 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.7%, 12.6%, and 11.3% respectively [7][51]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.84 billion, 3.20 billion, and 3.57 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2.8%, 12.7%, and 11.6% [7][52]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 25.88, 22.97, and 20.59 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][54]. Business Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of Chinese-style buns and related products, with a significant increase in store count from 2,074 in 2016 to 5,685 in the first half of 2025 [6][13]. - The breakfast market in China reached a size of 1.75 trillion yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% from 2015 to 2019 [6][23]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and sales channels, including direct sales, franchising, and group meal services, to capture a larger market share [6][13]. Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a dual approach of internal expansion and external acquisitions to drive growth, with plans to introduce new dining formats that cater to the fast-casual dining trend [6][45]. - The group meal market is expected to grow steadily, with the company actively developing new retail channels to enhance its revenue streams [6][48]. - The introduction of new dining formats is anticipated to open up additional growth avenues, particularly in the fast-casual segment, which aligns with current consumer trends [6][45].

Core Viewpoint - Yuanji Food Group Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its market presence and enhance its supply chain capabilities, while also addressing food safety concerns arising from its rapid franchise growth [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yuanji Food operates over 4,266 stores globally, making it the largest Chinese fast-food enterprise and the largest dumpling and wonton company in China by GMV [1][2]. - The company has two brands: "Yuanji Wontons" focusing on community stores and "Yuanji Weixiang" targeting retail scenarios [2]. - The company plans to deepen its domestic market presence and expand into low-density markets, recognizing significant growth potential in these areas [2]. Group 2: Expansion Plans - Yuanji Food has begun its overseas expansion, with 53 stores outside mainland China, primarily in Hong Kong and Macau, and plans to open stores in Singapore and Thailand [3]. - Part of the IPO proceeds will be allocated to enhancing overseas supply chain construction and exploring potential investments and acquisitions in international markets [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The total number of orders increased from 183 million in 2023 to 253 million in 2024, with GMV rising from 4.772 billion yuan to 6.248 billion yuan, a growth of 30.9% [3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported 210 million orders and a GMV of 4.789 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [3]. - Revenue for 2023 and 2024 was 2.026 billion yuan and 2.561 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 26.4% [7]. Group 4: Food Safety Issues - The company faced food safety issues, highlighted by a consumer finding a worm in a dish, which raised public concern and criticism regarding its food safety management [4][5]. - Complaints about food safety, including foreign objects and hygiene issues, have been reported, prompting the company to enhance its food safety measures and management of franchise stores [5]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Cost Structure - Yuanji Food operates five self-owned factories and a comprehensive cold chain storage network, ensuring efficient supply chain management [6]. - The company’s sales costs are significantly driven by ingredient procurement, with sales costs for 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025 being 1.5 billion yuan, 1.973 billion yuan, and 1.492 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - The gross profit margin has shown some fluctuations, with rates of 25.9%, 23%, and 24.7% for the respective periods [7]. Group 6: Ownership and Control - Despite external financing from various investors, the founding family retains over 82% of the voting rights, indicating a high concentration of ownership [8].

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the chain restaurant sector, highlighting the investment value of strong operational restaurant leaders and innovative tea beverage companies that can ensure stable returns for franchisees despite growth pressures [1] Group 1: Restaurant Consumption Trends - Demand is weakly recovering while supply is clearing, leading to growth strategies from leading companies, with national restaurant revenue increasing by 3.3% year-on-year from January to November 2025, slower than the 4.1% growth in retail [2] - Structural growth in online channels is evident, with significant benefits for milk tea, coffee, and fast food during the 2025 instant retail competition, although brands are becoming more rational about their approach to delivery [2] - Brand building strategies are shifting from creating single-hit products to enhancing supply chain efficiency, with a focus on developing membership systems for private traffic conversion [2] Group 2: Market Performance Review - Leading coffee and tea brands such as Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and Luckin Coffee have seen stock price increases of 185.8%, 45.4%, and 39.2% respectively, driven by increased consumer frequency and high enthusiasm from franchisees [3] - Restaurant leaders show varied stock performance, with strong same-store data and rapid expansion like Guoquan leading to a 98% increase, while others like Guangzhou Restaurant and Green Tea Group saw more moderate increases of 11.8%, 9.2%, and 8.8% [3] Group 3: Sub-industry Analysis and Outlook - The ready-to-drink tea segment is benefiting from the current delivery subsidy war, with seven listed tea leaders seeing revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 32.5% and 58.0% respectively in H1 2025, accelerating from 22.5% and 15.0% in 2024 [4] - In contrast, listed restaurant leaders experienced a revenue increase of only 1.5% in H1 2025, slower than the industry growth of 4.3%, due to factors like price competition and policy disruptions, although net profit grew by 7.5% [4] Group 4: Investment Framework Update - Same-store revenue growth serves as a valuation anchor, reflecting existing store profitability and influencing future expansion [5] - Store expansion rates act as a valuation amplifier, with potential for dual growth in valuation and performance during upward trends [5] - New product development is essential for generating new momentum, requiring supportive incentive systems [5] - Historical premium valuations for leading brands are linked to growth certainty and competitive dynamics [5] - Investment recommendations include Haidilao, Yum China, Guoquan, Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and others, with a positive outlook on Meituan-W in the local service sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The IPO of "Yujian Xiaomian," a chain restaurant specializing in Chongqing noodles, faced significant challenges, with its stock price dropping nearly 28.98% on the first day of trading, reflecting investor skepticism about the sustainability of its business model [1][2][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 418 million yuan in 2022 to 1.154 billion yuan in 2024, and achieving 703 million yuan in the first half of 2025, which is 168% of the total revenue for 2022 [7][10]. - The number of stores has expanded significantly, from 133 in early 2022 to 465 by November 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 50% [4][10]. - Despite revenue and store growth, the average customer spending has declined from 36.2 yuan in 2022 to 30.9 yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of nearly 15% [2][15]. Group 2: Market Reception and Investor Sentiment - The stock opened at 5.00 HKD, down 28.98% from the IPO price of 7.04 HKD, closing at 5.08 HKD, a total decline of 27.84% [1][11]. - The IPO attracted five cornerstone investors who collectively subscribed for 22 million USD (approximately 171 million HKD), indicating some institutional confidence in the company's long-term potential [11][12]. - However, the significant drop in stock price resulted in substantial losses for cornerstone investors, with an estimated total loss of 6.1248 million USD (approximately 43.3 million RMB) [12][13]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company faces operational challenges, including declining single-store profitability and a decrease in turnover rates, with average daily turnover rates dropping from 3.8 times in 2024 to 3.4 times in the first half of 2025 [15][16]. - The average daily sales per store have also declined, with direct-operated stores dropping from 13,997 yuan in 2023 to 11,805 yuan in the first half of 2025 [16]. - The competitive landscape in the Chinese noodle market is intensifying, with numerous brands entering the space, leading to price wars and reduced consumer loyalty [17].