COSTA咖啡深圳门店仅剩一家 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 李佳佳 近日，瑞幸咖啡大股东大钲资本考虑竞购COSTA咖啡的消息引发关注，彭博消息称，其持有者可口可 乐正考虑出售，目前讨论处初步阶段。 在COSTA咖啡收购传闻之前，另一咖啡头部品牌星巴克已完成中国业务的架构调整。11月4日，星巴克 宣布与博裕资本达成战略合作，以40亿美元估值成立合资企业。 快餐领域的并购整合同样活跃。11月10日，CPE源峰宣布向汉堡王中国注资3.5亿美元（约合人民币25.2 亿元），交易完成后将持有其约83%股权，原股东RBI保留约17%。 餐饮圈的"热闹"从来不在灶台，当下，一场围绕品牌、渠道与资源的并购大战正席卷咖啡、洋快餐、中 式餐饮全赛道。 餐饮行业并购呈现三个显著特征 上海证券交易所副总经理王泊近日指出，并购市场是"投资中国未来的黄金通道"。这一判断在餐饮行业 的整合浪潮中得到深刻印证。 除了咖啡赛道，快餐领域的并购同样令人关注。其中，CPE源峰宣布向汉堡王中国注资3.5亿美元。据 悉，该交易预计于2026年第一季度完成，双方计划到2035年将汉堡王中国门店从1250家扩张至4000家以 上，实现可持续的年度增长。 不 ...

Core Insights - Yum China CEO, Qu Cui Rong, announced ambitious expansion plans aiming for KFC's operating profit to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028 and to increase the number of stores to 17,000 [1] - The strategy focuses on resource sharing and integration across stores, regions, and brands to create stronger synergies [1] - KFC has been operating in China for 38 years, currently present in over 2,500 cities, with plans to strengthen its presence in high-tier cities and expand into over 2,000 lower-tier cities [1] KFC Expansion Plans - As of September, KFC has 12,640 stores in China [2] - To meet the new plan, approximately 4,360 new stores need to be added in 39 months, averaging about 110 new stores per month, which aligns with the current pace of 992 new stores added from January to September [3] - KFC's operations are currently in a favorable state [4] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, KFC's system sales grew by 5% year-on-year, with same-store sales increasing by 2%, while the average transaction value decreased by 1% [5] - The takeaway sales surged by 33% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of KFC's restaurant revenue, with a restaurant profit margin of 18.5%, up by 20 basis points [5] - The company anticipates additional revenue and profit from resource sharing and membership programs, as well as local innovations in menu offerings [5] Pizza Hut Growth Strategy - Qu Cui Rong also announced that Pizza Hut is entering an accelerated growth phase [6] - The brand has entered 1,000 cities in China but is still absent in 1,500 cities where KFC is present [7] - The plan is to increase the number of Pizza Hut stores from 4,000 to over 6,000 by 2028, with a target restaurant profit margin of at least 14.5% [7] Leadership and Shareholder Returns - Qu Cui Rong has been CEO since March 2018, with a goal set for 2028, reflecting her aspirations for her 10-year tenure [8] - Under her leadership, Yum China's net profit increased from $708 million in 2018 to an expected $911 million in 2024, a 30% rise [8] - Starting in 2027, Yum China plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders, with an expected return exceeding $1 billion by 2028 [10] Market Reaction - Following the positive announcements, Yum China's stock price rose by 1.5% on November 18, with a market capitalization of 132.5 billion HKD [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of foreign brands selling their businesses in China reflects a significant shift in the market dynamics, where local brands are gaining ground and changing consumer preferences are impacting the competitive landscape [6][9][26] Group 1: Foreign Brands Selling - CPE Yuanfeng has entered a strategic partnership with Burger King, investing $350 million to acquire approximately 83% of the joint venture "Burger King China" [1] - Starbucks has also formed a partnership with Boyu Capital, with an investment of around $4 billion for up to 60% stake in Starbucks China [2] - Yum! Brands is reviewing its strategy for Pizza Hut, considering the sale of its business [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market has shifted from a foreign brand-dominated "blue ocean" to a competitive "red ocean," with local brands like Luckin Coffee and Li Ning gaining market share [9][14] - Starbucks' market share has dropped from 34% in 1999 to less than 15% currently, indicating a significant decline in its competitive position [9] - The rise of domestic brands has led to a decrease in the perceived value of foreign brands, as consumers now prioritize quality and price over brand origin [11][12] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly aware of the value of domestic products, often finding similar quality at lower prices [11] - The rapid evolution of consumer preferences and marketing strategies has made it difficult for foreign brands to keep up [17][19] - The success of local brands in penetrating lower-tier cities highlights the challenges faced by foreign brands in adapting to the new market environment [21] Group 4: Strategic Shift of Foreign Brands - Foreign brands are transitioning from a "heavy asset direct operation" model to a "light asset cooperation" model, focusing on brand licensing and partnerships rather than direct management [24] - This shift allows foreign brands to minimize risks while still benefiting from the growing Chinese market through royalties and dividends [24][26] - The changing landscape indicates that local players are now leading the market, with foreign brands taking a backseat [26]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks announced the sale of 60% of its Chinese business to Boyu Capital, marking a significant shift in its operational strategy while retaining control over its brand and intellectual property [2][6]. Group 1: Business Strategy - The transaction allows Starbucks to maintain ownership of its trademark, brand, recipes, store designs, and supply chain standards, ensuring that the core elements of its business remain under its control [2][6]. - This move aligns with a trend seen in the fast-food industry, where companies like Yum Brands and McDonald's have previously sold operational rights while retaining brand control [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Context - The decision reflects a broader industry pattern where foreign brands, after experiencing market saturation and increased local competition, opt to divest operational control while keeping brand rights [5][6]. - The strategy of "selling operational rights while retaining brand" is common among over 90% of global consumer brands, contrasting with the less frequent approach of fully transferring brand ownership [7]. Group 3: Intellectual Property Importance - Retaining intellectual property (IP) is crucial as it serves as a risk isolation mechanism, allowing companies to control brand direction and generate long-term revenue through licensing fees even after operational rights are transferred [6][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of treating IP as a core asset rather than a cost-saving measure, highlighting the risks associated with inadequate IP protection in international markets [8][10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Companies are encouraged to evaluate the financial implications of selling versus retaining their IP, with a focus on structuring agreements that protect their brand and operational interests [10]. - The article suggests that a shift in mindset is necessary for Chinese companies to transition from a model of "sales without ownership" to one where IP is secured before entering partnerships [10].

Group 1: Starbucks and Strategic Partnerships - Starbucks has announced a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to establish a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% equity and Starbucks retaining 40% [1][20] - The joint venture is based on an enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, and Starbucks expects its retail business in China to exceed $13 billion [1][20] - The new joint venture will be headquartered in Shanghai and aims to expand the number of Starbucks stores in China from 8,000 to 20,000 [1][20] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The trend of international restaurant brands, including Starbucks and Pizza Hut, focusing on lower-tier cities is becoming increasingly significant due to better revenue prospects in these markets [3] - Starbucks has reported that new stores opened in the last two years have contributed to same-store sales growth above average, with many of these new locations in lower-tier markets [3] - Yum China reported a 4% year-over-year revenue growth to $3.2 billion in Q3 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut also showing positive revenue trends [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Pricing - There is a noted decline in average transaction value for Starbucks, Pizza Hut, and KFC, which may benefit their expansion into lower-tier markets [5] - The overall dining market in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is contracting, prompting brands to seek growth in less saturated markets [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Yum China is a leading player in the Western-style dining sector, demonstrating strong operational resilience and a diversified brand portfolio, including KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell [11][17]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing non-Chinese fast food segment in China, with a market share of 7.5% in the domestic chain dining sector as of 2024 [46]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth and profitability improvements, with projected revenues of $12.02 billion, $12.76 billion, and $13.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yum China operates in three main segments: Western fast food, Chinese restaurants, and coffee shops, with KFC being the primary revenue driver [11][17]. - As of H1 2025, the number of KFC and Pizza Hut outlets in China reached 12,238 and 3,864, respectively [11]. 2. Market Position and Growth - The Chinese dining service market is projected to reach ¥54,730 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.48% from 2020 to 2024 [34]. - The fast food segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.94% during the same period, indicating a robust growth trajectory for Yum China [38]. 3. Competitive Advantages - KFC's global store count is expected to reach 32,000 by 2024, supported by a strong brand identity and innovative product offerings [61]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure and an experienced management team, enhancing its strategic execution capabilities [14]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenues of $12.02 billion, $12.76 billion, and $13.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding net profits of $951.62 million, $1.02 billion, and $1.09 billion [1][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 16.79x and 15.71x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [1].

Summary of Yum China Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yum China - **Brands**: KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Little Sheep, Huang Ji Huang, Lavazza - **Store Count**: Over 10,000 stores with a target to expand to 20,000 stores [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Gross Margin**: Stable at approximately 69% [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Maintained around 15% from 2019 to 2023, indicating low volatility and strong stability compared to peers [3][12] - **Dividend and Buyback Plan**: Announced a $4.5 billion plan over three years, with a current dividend yield of about 9% [4][10] - **Cash Flow**: Free cash flow consistently above $1 billion annually, with plans for $1.5 billion in buybacks and dividends in 2025 and 2026 [20] Market Position and Growth Strategy - **Market Size**: Western fast food market valued at approximately 360 billion to 370 billion CNY, accounting for about 7% of the total retail dining market [2][7] - **Store Expansion**: KFC aims to exceed 22,000 stores, while Pizza Hut targets 5,500 to 6,000 stores, indicating over 50% growth potential from current levels [6][19] - **Digital Transformation**: Significant investments in digital tools, including self-service ordering and smart store systems, have improved operational efficiency [5][17] Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: KFC holds a 16.4% market share, McDonald's at 9.5%, and Pizza Hut over 30% in the pizza category [9] - **Consumer Perception**: Western fast food brands benefit from a "natural filter effect," perceived as more authentic and appealing [9] Product and Customer Engagement - **Membership Programs**: KFC and Pizza Hut have over 400 million and 150 million members, respectively, with over 60% of sales from member consumption [4][13] - **Product Innovation**: Introduction of entry-level products to attract new customer segments, enhancing market competitiveness [11][14] Supply Chain Management - **Logistics Investment**: Established a national logistics system with plans for 45 to 50 logistics centers, enhancing supply chain efficiency [15][17] - **Supplier Management**: Implemented a T21 three-tier supplier management system to ensure cost efficiency and quality [15] Future Outlook - **Revenue Growth Forecast**: Expected revenue growth of around 3% in 2025, with same-store sales slightly increasing by 1% [21][22] - **Investment Recommendation**: Current valuation at approximately 17-18 times earnings makes it an attractive option for long-term investors, especially in light of favorable market conditions [22] Additional Important Insights - **Market Resilience**: The Western fast food sector has shown resilience amid macroeconomic pressures, benefiting from low price points and convenience [7][8] - **Innovation in Offerings**: Pizza Hut has expanded its product range to include burgers and coffee, catering to new consumer needs [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the restaurant industry in China, highlighting the tension between consumer desire for unique dining experiences and the increasing prevalence of standardized chain restaurants. It suggests that as consumers become more discerning, there is a growing demand for quality and authenticity in dining options, which may lead to a resurgence of local, non-chain establishments [1][41][44]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Trends - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day, many restaurants, especially those near tourist attractions, saw high demand, with special "family packages" introduced to attract customers [2][4]. - A report from Deep Blue Think Tank revealed that 28.2% of consumers prioritize product quality over brand, while 20.6% prefer well-known brands, indicating a complex relationship with brand loyalty [5][7]. - Consumers exhibit a mix of loyalty and curiosity, with 32.2% often choosing familiar restaurants, while 29.6% are willing to try new places if the price is right [10][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The share of chain restaurants in China has increased from 15% in 2019 to 22% in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach 24% by 2025 [16]. - Major global brands like McDonald's and Starbucks dominate the market, with McDonald's alone purchasing 35 billion pounds of potatoes annually, showcasing the scale and purchasing power of these giants [21][22]. - Chinese brands like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee are also expanding rapidly, with Mixue boasting 46,000 stores, primarily in Asia [20]. Group 3: Standardization vs. Local Flavor - The article notes that many traditional dishes are becoming standardized, with some brands achieving 60%-70% standardization in their offerings [32]. - The rise of "internet celebrity" restaurants, which create unique dining experiences, is highlighted as a response to consumer fatigue with uniformity [33][36]. - The future of the restaurant ecosystem in China may not mirror the U.S. model of dominance by a few giants, but rather a coexistence of large chains and small, unique establishments [49]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As consumer preferences shift towards quality and authenticity, the article suggests that brands must refine their offerings to meet these expectations, focusing on product quality, service, and brand culture [44][50]. - The article concludes that the competition will increasingly hinge on the ability to provide unique experiences and maintain a connection to local culture, as consumers seek out authenticity in their dining choices [52].