会议助理: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 苏仪 中泰证券计算机分析师: 各位投资人大家下午好，05 年开工大吉。我是中泰计算机苏怡，那今天我会和我们团队的 王雪晴一起来主持本次会议。那在年前和过年期间，大家一直对于量子计算，有非常热烈 的一个讨论，包括量子计算到底是什么，然后量子计算有哪些具体的技术路径，以及量子 计算未来的应用应用场景到底有哪一些？那我们也非常荣幸的邀请到了波色量子的市场部 总监袁总，来为大家介绍。我就不过多占用大家的时间，那我们把接下来的时间交给袁总 袁总。 波色量子市场部总监袁总: 好的，大家好。喂，听得见吗？ 苏仪 中泰证券计算机分析师: 可以听到。 波色量子市场部总监袁总: 因为我看我的这个。电电脑上有一个图标是静音状态，所以还以为大家听不见。那我就简 单介绍一下，就是第一个问题就是量子计算机到底是什么问题？首先大家可能都会有一些 这个现在的半导体，或者说现在的计算机的一些从业基础，或者一些基础的认知。那大家 也都知道现在的整个这个半导体芯片的制成的话。那已经达到了 3 纳米或者是 2 纳米这样 的一个水平。这个意味着什么？就是意味着我们这个单个这个半导体的这个 B 的厚 ...

Core Insights - The development of practical fault-tolerant quantum computers, once thought to be decades away, is accelerating, with expectations for a million-qubit scale machine by 2035 [2] Group 1: Advances in Quantum Computing - Multiple leading research teams have made significant progress in quantum error correction, gate fidelity, and system integration, indicating that large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing is physically achievable [3] - Four independent research teams have confirmed that their quantum systems have surpassed the critical error rate threshold necessary for fault-tolerant computing [3] Group 2: Error Correction Efficiency - Current estimates suggest that one logical qubit requires thousands of physical qubits, with a redundancy ratio of "1000:1," which exceeds current engineering capabilities [5] - Innovations in algorithms and architectures have led to a significant reduction in resource consumption, with a new method proposed by Google reducing the number of qubits needed for large integer factorization from 20 million to 1 million, a decrease of two orders of magnitude [5] Group 3: Gate Fidelity Improvements - Research teams have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in gate fidelity, with Oxford University reporting a single qubit gate fidelity of 99.999985%, a tenfold improvement over previous records [6] Group 4: Extending Coherence Time - Enhancements in qubit coherence time are crucial for improving hardware durability, with Princeton University extending superconducting qubit lifetimes from 0.1 milliseconds to 1.68 milliseconds [7] - If coherence times can reach 10 milliseconds, the resource overhead for error correction could be reduced by two to three times, making large integer factorization tasks feasible with 30,000 to 50,000 qubits [7]

Core Insights - The research conducted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Physics has achieved a breakthrough in quantum computing by successfully implementing a controllable preheating platform using Random Multi-Polar Drive (RMD) technology, marking a significant advancement in the field [1][4][5] Group 1: Research Breakthrough - The experiment achieved on a 78-qubit superconducting platform is unprecedented, validating important theoretical results in quantum computing and demonstrating the existence of "quantum supremacy" [1][4] - The research addresses a critical scientific question regarding the existence of a preheating platform in large-scale quantum systems, which classical computers cannot efficiently compute [5][6] Group 2: Quantum Supremacy and Applications - The results indicate that quantum computing can outperform advanced classical computing methods in specific scenarios, reinforcing the concept of quantum supremacy [7][8] - The research provides a potential application for quantum systems in information storage, highlighting the importance of preventing information loss due to thermal effects [9] Group 3: Future of Quantum Computing - The future development of quantum computing is expected to focus on scientific value rather than immediate commercial applications, with advancements anticipated in the next five to ten years [11][12] - Challenges such as precision and scalability remain, with the potential for achieving millions of qubits in about ten years, indicating a transformative potential for quantum computing [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed. Core Insights - The technology industry experienced 196 financing events globally from December 22, 2025, to January 1, 2026, with 181 events in China and 15 abroad, highlighting significant investment activity in advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and enterprise services [9]. - The semiconductor sector is witnessing advancements with the global release of high-purity P-type SiC substrates and the development of the first 12-inch high-quality silicon carbide epitaxial wafer, which are expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs in the semiconductor industry [33][38]. - The artificial intelligence sector is advancing with new technologies such as the TurboDiffusion framework for video generation, which can accelerate video creation by up to 200 times, and the introduction of the "Shan Hai" S30FP/S30P SPU IP, which provides comprehensive security solutions for high-performance computing chips [4][41]. Summary by Sections Financing Overview - A total of 196 financing events occurred in the technology sector during the specified period, with advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and enterprise services leading the way in terms of the number of events [9]. IPO Updates - Several companies went public, including: - **InSilico Medicine** listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on AI-driven drug discovery, significantly reducing the time for drug development from an average of 4.5 years to 12-18 months [11][12]. - **Tiansu Measurement** listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, providing independent third-party measurement and testing services across various industries [15][16]. - **Nobikang** also listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, specializing in AI solutions for railway and power companies [18][19]. Semiconductor Sector Developments - **SuperChip** launched a high-purity P-type SiC substrate, addressing critical impurities that have historically hindered the industry, thus enhancing the reliability of high-voltage IGBT devices [33][36]. - **Hantian Technology** developed the world's first 12-inch high-quality silicon carbide epitaxial wafer, which is expected to significantly improve production efficiency and lower costs in the semiconductor industry [38][40]. - **Arm Technology** introduced the "Shan Hai" S30FP/S30P SPU IP, enhancing security for high-performance computing applications [41][42]. AI and Quantum Technology Innovations - The report highlights advancements in AI, including a collaboration between Shenshu Technology and Tsinghua University to accelerate video generation, and IBM's new framework for large language model planning [4][41]. - In quantum technology, IonQ has established a significant presence in South Korea with its quantum computing capabilities, marking a strategic expansion in the global infrastructure [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [7] Core Insights - NVIDIA is leading the transition of AI interconnect from scale-up and scale-out to scale-across, introducing Spectrum-XGS Ethernet scalable technology to unify distributed data centers into a gigabit-level AI super factory, establishing a new generation of AI infrastructure [12][13] - The North American cloud service provider (CSP) demand is strong, with an expected acceleration in prosperity from 2026 to 2028, as large-scale CSPs are dominating the construction of AI scale-across backbone networks [3][14] - The construction of cross-data center interconnect infrastructure is expected to benefit first, with long-term positive implications for the upstream optical communication sector [4][15] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.01% this week, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and a year-to-date increase of 25.74% [16][17] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the interconnection of data centers has become a new competitive direction for North American CSPs, with significant revenue potential from projects like DCOM in collaboration with Meta, expected to reach hundreds of millions of dollars by 2026 [3][14] Key Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in cross-data center interconnect infrastructure, including coherent optical modules (Ciena, Cisco, etc.), switches (Arista, Cisco), and reconfigurable line systems (Ciena) [4][15]

Core Insights - The report by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) highlights that the next five to ten years will be a critical period for competition in quantum information technology, application transformation, and industrial cultivation [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The average annual growth rate of quantum enterprises has been approximately 60 over the past five years, with over 800 global quantum information-related companies, of which about 50% are quantum computing firms [1] - The distribution of quantum enterprises is as follows: over 230 in the EU (29%), over 210 in the US (26%), and around 140 in China (17%) [1] - Investment and financing in the quantum information sector are expected to surge in 2025, with notable financing events in the first half of the year, including several companies securing millions in funding [1] Group 2: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is at a critical stage of scientific research and prototype development, with multiple technological routes such as superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, photonic, silicon semiconductor, and topological methods being pursued [2] - Quantum error correction is essential for transitioning quantum computing from laboratory settings to real-world applications, and quantum computing cloud platforms are vital for commercial viability [2] - The current phase of quantum computing is characterized by significant scientific breakthroughs but still early in engineering applications, necessitating a multi-dimensional perspective on technological progress and application prospects [2] Group 3: Quantum Communication - The quantum communication sector is experiencing rapid development in products that enhance quality and reduce costs, with significant contributions from telecom operators and industry-specific networks [3] - Challenges remain in the promotion and application of quantum secure communication, including the need for improved engineering levels, product quality, and increased competition in the post-quantum cryptography (PQC) industry [3] - The rise of quantum computing poses systemic threats to existing public key cryptography systems, leading to a global consensus on accelerating the development of PQC algorithms and standards [3] Group 4: Quantum Precision Measurement - The quantum precision measurement field is witnessing accelerated application and has broad industrial prospects, particularly in defense, aerospace, resource exploration, and biomedical sectors [4] - The quantum precision measurement industry chain is taking shape, with nearly 150 related companies globally, but large-scale commercialization faces challenges such as technology maturity and market acceptance [4] - The integration of AI with quantum precision measurement is emerging as a new focus, enhancing data processing capabilities and expanding application ranges [4]

Quantum Technology - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been launched, focusing on quantum technology, biomedicine, brain-computer interfaces, and other future industries, with an initial capital of 100 billion yuan to attract social capital [5][6] - A significant breakthrough in quantum error correction has been achieved by the University of Science and Technology of China, demonstrating a key milestone in achieving fault-tolerant quantum computing [7][9][10] Biomanufacturing - The European Union has released the Biotechnology Act and associated measures to enhance global competitiveness in biotechnology, aiming to mobilize 10 billion euros in capital from 2026 to 2027 [11][12] - The EU's initiatives include accelerating clinical trials, establishing regulatory sandboxes, and enhancing the application of AI in biomanufacturing, addressing funding shortages and innovation barriers [13][16] Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has included three key areas in its 2025 application plan for hydrogen energy, focusing on fuel cell systems, hydrogen compressors, and ammonia co-firing technology [17][18] - South Korea has advanced its nuclear fusion power demonstration target to the 2030s, planning to overcome eight core technologies by 2035 [19][20] - The UK Tokamak Energy ST40 device has set new records in plasma current and energy storage, marking significant progress in commercial fusion energy [21] Brain-Computer Interfaces - A new generation of closed-loop brain-computer interface has been developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, enabling functional recovery in spinal cord injury models through real-time decoding of brain movement intentions [22] Embodied Intelligence - The establishment of a national standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence aims to enhance the quality and application of these technologies [25] - UBTECH plans to acquire a 43% stake in Fenglong Co., enhancing collaboration in humanoid robot manufacturing and supply chain integration [26][29] Sixth Generation Mobile Communication (6G) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes systematic advancement in 6G technology research and standard development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [30] - The U.S. has initiated a spectrum strategy for 6G, focusing on reallocating frequency resources to secure a leading position in global 6G development [31][32] - China has established a collaborative system involving government, industry, and research institutions to promote 6G development, positioning itself as a leader in the field [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - A Chinese research team has made a significant breakthrough in quantum error correction, marking a key step in the global race to develop practical quantum computers, becoming the second team worldwide to achieve this milestone after Google, and surpassing Google in efficiency [1][5]. Group 1: Breakthrough Details - The Chinese team, led by Academician Pan Jianwei, successfully crossed the "fault-tolerant threshold" using the superconducting quantum processor "Zuchongzhi 3.2," which is crucial for the stable operation of quantum computers at scale [1][4]. - The concept of the "fault-tolerant threshold" is essential as it determines whether error correction can enhance system stability; below this threshold, error correction can introduce more errors than it eliminates [4][5]. - The team utilized a microwave-based control method that does not significantly increase hardware complexity, contrasting with Google's approach that relies on additional hardware to suppress errors [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Achievements - The Chinese team achieved a logical qubit with a code distance of 7, demonstrating that as the system scales, the overall error rate decreases, with an error suppression factor of 1.4, indicating operation below the fault-tolerant threshold [5]. - This achievement suggests a more flexible and scalable technical route, potentially paving the way for quantum computers to reach tens of thousands or even millions of qubits [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - Quantum computers differ from traditional computers by utilizing quantum physics principles, theoretically capable of performing complex tasks in a fraction of the time required by classical computers [3]. - The field of quantum computing has faced significant challenges due to the instability of qubits, which are highly sensitive to environmental disturbances, making errors almost inevitable during operation [3][4].

Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Apple has been fined approximately €98.63 million (around 813 million RMB) by the Italian antitrust authority for abusing its market dominance through its App Tracking Transparency policy, which restricts competition among third-party developers since April 2021 [2] Group 2: Autonomous Driving Developments - Baidu's autonomous driving service platform,萝卜快跑, plans to launch driverless testing and services in London by 2026, marking its first entry into a right-hand traffic market outside of Hong Kong [3] Group 3: AI and Robotics Innovations - Alibaba has open-sourced a new image generation model, Qwen-Image-Layered, which allows for advanced layer understanding and image generation, addressing consistency issues in AI-generated images [4] - 智元机器人 expects to achieve sales revenue exceeding 1 billion RMB this year, with plans for significant growth in robot shipments and revenue in the coming years [5] - 智元机器人 has launched a national robot rental platform, "擎天租," aiming to streamline the rental process and project the market size to exceed 10 billion RMB this year [5] Group 4: Corporate Transactions and Investments - 吉利汽车 has completed the privatization of 极氪, which is now a wholly-owned subsidiary, and its financial performance will be consolidated into 吉利汽车's financial statements [7] - 凌云光's subsidiary plans to invest up to $5 million in the IPO of 智谱, reinforcing their long-term partnership in AI and industrial data [8] - 通宇通讯 is increasing its registered capital by 10 million RMB through a cash investment from 武汉武创院投资有限公司 to enhance its capital strength [6] Group 5: Market Trends and Product Launches - 长飞光纤 reports that the demand for fiber optic cables related to the telecom market remains under pressure, despite increased attention on new products related to data centers [10] - 云知声 has launched a new medical AI model, "山海·知医大模型5.0," which aims to transition from an "intelligent tool" to a "clinical collaborator" [11] - 华为 has released the nova15 series smartphones, starting at 2,699 RMB, featuring the new 麒麟9010s chip and HarmonyOS 6 [23]

Core Viewpoint - The research team from the University of Science and Technology of China has achieved a significant milestone in quantum error correction using the superconducting quantum processor "Zuchongzhi 3.2," establishing a foundation for large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing [1] Group 1 - The team, including professors Pan Jianwei, Zhu Xiaobo, Peng Chengzhi, and associate professor Chen Fusheng, successfully implemented quantum error correction below the error threshold [1] - This achievement indicates that the quantum system can improve accuracy as more corrections are applied, marking a critical technological advancement [1] - The development is expected to lay the groundwork for future advancements in fault-tolerant quantum computing [1]