日图；金价昨日如期触及给出的趋势线压力附近遇阻回落，并收取一定的见顶看空形态，暗示后市有再 度回落触及中轨或更低位置的预期，但目前暂未跌破5日均线支撑，附图指标仍处于看涨信号中，故 此，如有进一步走低，下方中轨线支撑，或者是5-10周均线支撑，也是再度入场看涨的机会。 展望今日周五(11月14日)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回升之力先行反弹走强，但技术上，仍面临一定 阻力，另外，美国政府重开虽化解了短期不确定性，引发买预期卖事实的股市及金市的连锁抛售，并 且，美联储对于降息的态度内部分歧、通胀顽固、债市疲软和全球资产轮动共振等等，12月降息概率目 前跌至50%，而实际利率又表现上升。这直接打压了金价多头。短期金价将面临震荡或再度回落调整的 风险。 ...

张尧浠：基本面风向有待明确、金价短期仍具调整走低风险 上交易日周一(11月3日)：国际黄金低开后，震荡走盘收线，维持后市仍有再度筑底转强的倾向，但走势仍处于中轨下方，附图指标仍处于空头信号发展 阶段，故此，除非重回中轨上方才能加大看涨力度再刷新高，否则将有继续维持震荡调整或再度走低的预期。 具体走势上，金价自亚市低开至3990.81美元/盎司，先行走低录得日内低点3962.57美元，之后触底回升，维持在3995-4030美元区间来回震荡，并在美盘 录得日内高点4030.12美元，最终有所回撤走低，收于4001.34美元，日振幅67.53美元，相对于上周五收盘价4003.59美元，收跌2.25美元，跌幅0.056%。相 对于开盘价收涨10.53美元，涨幅0.26%。 影响上，受周末黄金税收成本上升加剧投机资金的短期抛压，再加上美国民主党参议员敦促特朗普直接参与结束政府关门的谈判，令其金价低开走弱，但 由于逢低买盘，以及美国10月份制造业活动连续第八个月萎缩，各美联储官员对12月降息持开放态度而最终维持震荡波动而收线。 展望今日周二(11月4日)：国际黄金亚市早盘先行偏弱运行，受到技术压力和美元走强的影响，但美元 ...

Core Insights - After a period of decline, international gold prices surged on October 29, with spot gold rising by 1.85% to $4025 per ounce and COMEX futures increasing by 1.49% to $4042 per ounce [1][5]. Gold Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices was characterized as a "big plunge," with prices falling below $3900 on October 28. Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant reductions, with some brands dropping below 1190 yuan per gram [5]. - Analysts attribute the recent decline in gold prices to profit-taking by investors following a substantial previous increase, easing concerns over international trade tensions, and a rise in investor risk appetite [5][6]. - Market analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments are more about emotional corrections rather than fundamental shifts, indicating a potential for future price recovery [6]. Future Price Predictions - Representatives at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual meeting forecasted that gold prices could reach $4980 per ounce within the next 12 months, representing an increase of over 25% from current levels [6]. - A significant portion of LBMA representatives (40%) believe that gold will be the best-performing asset in the precious metals sector by 2026 [6]. - Major banks, including Bank of America and HSBC, have set gold price targets at $5000 per ounce for the following year, viewing recent price declines as healthy adjustments and investment opportunities [6]. Central Bank Demand - Over the past three years, global central bank demand for gold has increased by over 1000 tons, although most purchases have been concentrated among a few central banks [7]. - Analysts expect that as more central banks join the trend of gold purchases, this demand will provide long-term support for gold prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to face a phase of adjustment after reaching resistance levels around 4300, with potential support near 3800 in the event of a significant pullback [1][3][6] Technical Analysis - Monthly chart indicates a resistance zone between 4280-4330, with actual price action determining the specific resistance point [3] - Weekly chart shows the current week is the 8th week of a 9-week sequence, suggesting a potential peak and subsequent pullback in the next week or the week after [3] - Historical pullbacks have typically retraced to the midline and the 30-week moving average, indicating a possible rebound after a drop to around 3800 [3] Fundamental Analysis - Current fundamentals appear favorable for gold prices, with no immediate support for a technical peak and pullback [4] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown and potential interest rate decisions could influence market sentiment, with a hawkish stance or no rate cuts being key factors [4][6] - Economic concerns are expected to rise due to the government shutdown affecting October's economic and employment data, which may increase expectations for rate cuts [6] Future Outlook - The likelihood of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair being appointed in 2026 could accelerate the pace of rate cuts, reinforcing a bullish outlook for gold prices over the next one to two years [6] - Even with potential short-term adjustments, these may present opportunities for re-entry into the market [6]

张尧浠：金价短线获利了结调整、回踩支撑仍是多头机会 上交易日周三(9月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，仍未能收线在阻力位上方，使得多头动力减弱，但也仍未跌破5-10日短期均线支撑，故此，操作上，回 踩5/10日均线支撑，仍是先行看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3764.85美元/盎司，先行V型反弹，于欧盘开盘录得日内高点3779.02美元后，遇阻回撤，延续到美盘时段持续走低，于盘尾 触及日内低点3717.61美元，最后有所止跌回升，收于3735.87美元，日振幅61.41美元，收跌28.98美元，跌幅0.77%。 周图，金价自去年开涨攀升以来，如期第4次回踩中轨线支撑，并再度向上攀升，且不断触及给出的看涨目标位，目前多头在目标阻力位附近有所减弱， 短期面临一定调整行情，但整体的看涨趋势依然未有改变，故此，如有进一步调整，下方5-10周均线也是再度入场看涨机会，但如运行在阻力位附近或上 方收线，则下周可继续跟进看涨。 今日周四(9月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到昨日尾盘的止跌回升之力，以及5日均线支撑的买盘推动，而先行反弹走强，同时，美元指数早盘多头动力先行减 缓运行，也对其金价产生一定支撑； 但美元指数昨日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, gold prices attempted to break through $3700 but ultimately fell, leading to market skepticism about further increases and concerns about a significant downturn [2][4] - The article emphasizes that fluctuations in gold prices are normal, especially after a substantial increase of $400, and highlights the importance of key support and resistance levels, particularly the $3610 and $3650 marks [2][4] - The $3700 level is identified as a critical resistance point, and if gold cannot maintain above this level, it may enter a consolidation phase where both bullish and bearish opportunities exist [2][4] Group 2 - The analysis suggests a short position in the range of $3690-$3695, with a stop-loss set at $3710, indicating a focus on the potential for price movement within the $3675-$3670 range [5] - The article notes that the previous high of $3706 is significant for determining the continuation of the upward trend, and that profit-taking could occur due to market sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war by suggesting a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold prices surged over $150 last week due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, but the extension of the tariff deadline to July 9 may lead to a potential price correction [3][1] - The WTI crude oil futures experienced fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding to above $61 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][6] Group 2 - The gold market is currently showing signs of potential adjustment after reaching a high of $3365, with technical indicators suggesting a possible downward movement [3][1] - Oil prices are in a volatile state, with support observed at the $60 mark, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern unless significant news or data emerges [6][4] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes risk management, highlighting the importance of avoiding significant losses while navigating market fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching a new high, with London gold reported at $3340.213 per ounce, down 1.16%, and COMEX gold at $3350.4 per ounce, down over 2% [1][2]. Gold Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China saw a substantial decline on April 23, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price dropping from 1080 CNY per gram to 1048 CNY per gram, a decrease of 32 CNY per gram. Similarly, Chow Tai Fook's price fell from 1082 CNY per gram to 1055 CNY per gram, down 27 CNY per gram. Other brands like Saturday's Fortune and Luk Fook also reported declines exceeding 2% [3][4]. - The price adjustments for various brands on April 23 included: - Chow Tai Fook: 1025 CNY, down 2.50% - Lao Feng Xiang: 1050 CNY, down 0.57% - Saturday's Fortune: 1022 CNY, down 2.50% - Chow Sang Sang: 1048 CNY, down 2.96% - Luk Fook: 1025 CNY, down 2.50% [4]. ETF Market Impact - On April 23, multiple gold-themed ETFs experienced significant declines, with the gold stock ETF leading the drop at over 6% [5][6]. - Specific ETF performance included: - Gold Stock ETF: 1.110, down 6.33% - Another Gold Stock ETF: 1.083, down 5.83% - Additional ETFs also reported declines ranging from 5.49% to 5.78% [6]. Futures Market - The main gold futures contract in Shanghai fell below the 800 CNY per gram mark, with a daily decline exceeding 3% [6]. Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to margin levels and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver contracts, effective April 25, 2025. The margin for gold contracts will increase from 12% to 13%, and the fluctuation limit will rise from 11% to 12%. For silver contracts, the margin will increase from 15% to 16%, and the fluctuation limit will rise from 14% to 15% [7]. Market Sentiment - Short-term adjustments in gold prices are anticipated due to easing market risk sentiment, although geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold purchases may support long-term gold price strength [10].