Report Overview - The report is an industrial daily for the aluminum industry dated October 27, 2025, covering various aspects of the aluminum market including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The aluminum market shows different trends in different segments. Alumina may see supply reduction and slight demand increase, supporting its price; electrolytic aluminum may experience a small increase in supply and strong consumption with inventory reduction; cast aluminum may be in a tight supply - demand balance with inventory reduction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 311,269 lots, up 9,063 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,856.5 dollars/ton, down 8.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 473,125 tons, down 4,550 tons [2] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 372,484 lots, down 5,950 lots [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 140 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 6,366 lots [2] Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 21,160 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 3.19 dollars/ton, down 5.02 dollars [2] - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,795 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina basis was - 34 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina开工率 was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points; the production was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong it was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; exports were 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.8 million tons, up 31,034.96 million tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Trade**: The import of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; exports were 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 52 million tons, down 1 million tons; exports of aluminum alloy were 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: The monthly automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2] Option Situation - **Aluminum Options**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 8.59%, up 0.20 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.77%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 11.97%, up 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.21, down 0.0391 [2] Industry News - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and trade [2] - **Financial Report**: The central bank governor reported on financial work, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening financial supervision [2] - **US CPI Data**: The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [2] - **15th Five - Year Plan**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" issues, and is expected to bring new market space and investment demand [2] Alumina View Summary - **Market Trend**: The alumina main contract showed a volatile trend, with a decrease in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may decrease due to squeezed smelter profits; demand may be slightly boosted by high - level electrolytic aluminum production and positive macro expectations; prices may be supported [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened low and strengthened, with an increase in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase slightly due to increased smelting profits; demand may be strong due to the "15th Five - Year Plan" and traditional peak season; inventory is decreasing; the option market is bullish [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - **Market Trend**: The cast aluminum main contract was slightly stronger in a volatile market, with a decrease in holding volume, spot premium, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may be limited by tight raw material supply; demand is resilient due to positive macro expectations and the peak season; inventory is decreasing slightly [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly converging green bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]

"坚持支持性的货币政策立场，中国特色现代货币政策框架初步形成，实施和传导更为有效，助力'十四 五'经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成。"2025年9月，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的"高质量完 成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上表示。 从9次降准释放7万亿元长期流动性到结构性工具覆盖金融"五篇大文章"，从明确7天期逆回购操作利率 为政策利率到建立制度化的货币政策沟通机制，一系列扎实举措共同勾勒出现代中央银行制度的建设轨 迹，交出了一份"总量稳、结构优、成本降、预期稳"的亮眼答卷。近日，《金融时报》记者就"十四 五"时期中国人民银行在推动货币政策框架转型、利率市场化改革等方面的工作和成果对中国人民银行 货币政策司负责人进行了专访。 《金融时报》记者："十四五"规划纲要提出，建设现代中央银行制度，完善货币供应调控机制。请问央 行在发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能方面开展了哪些工作，取得了哪些成效？ 中国人民银行货币政策司负责人："十四五"以来，中国人民银行认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部 署，完善中国特色现代货币政策框架，注重发挥好货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能。潘功胜行长在 2024年陆家嘴论坛上表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" to include non-bank financial institutions enhances the overseas bond investment channels and asset allocation flexibility for domestic institutions, although there are still limitations on quotas and investment scope [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The "Southbound Bond Connect" is a crucial mechanism for interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets, allowing mainland investors to efficiently allocate overseas bond assets. It was launched on September 24, 2021, to provide a convenient channel for domestic institutional investors to invest in overseas bonds through the Hong Kong bond market [1]. - Since its inception, the Southbound Bond Connect has continuously broadened the overseas investment channels for domestic institutions, optimizing asset allocation choices and aiding the internationalization of the Renminbi. As of July 2025, the business balance conducted through this mechanism is approximately 556.44 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Operational Mechanism - The operational mechanism of the "Southbound Bond Connect" includes qualified institutional approval, quota management, and settlement mechanisms. The investment scope covers low to medium-risk, non-structured bonds or products issued overseas and traded in Hong Kong. All qualified institutions must comply with the application, approval, and reporting processes as required by the central bank and regulatory authorities [2]. - The annual total quota is set at 500 billion yuan, with investment restrictions on certain types of bonds, such as municipal investment bonds [2]. Group 3: Recent Developments - In 2025, the Southbound Bond Connect will see significant expansion, with non-bank financial institutions such as brokerages, funds, wealth management, and insurance companies being included in the pilot program. This diversification of investor types is expected to enhance liquidity and depth in the Hong Kong bond market [3]. - The offshore repurchase agreements will support multi-currency operations and allow for the secondary circulation of pledged bonds, significantly improving market efficiency and facilitating diversified asset allocation and cross-border capital operations [3]. Group 4: Investment Value Analysis - An analysis of the yield comparison between domestic and foreign bonds, along with the divergence in interest rate trends between China and the U.S., indicates that overseas bonds present significant investment value. As policies continue to improve, the Southbound Bond Connect is expected to become a preferred channel for overseas bond investments, aside from the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) model [4]. - Currently, the yield on bonds available through the Southbound Bond Connect is generally higher than that of domestic bonds, with investment targets involving more debt products in currencies such as USD and HKD, making the overall returns attractive [4].

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates a positive trend in the economy, with improved social confidence and solid progress in high-quality development, but still faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [1] - The next phase will focus on guiding financial institutions to increase monetary credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - The emphasis of economic policy is on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, with the second quarter meeting calling for enhanced financial support for key areas such as technology innovation and consumption [2] - A joint guideline issued by the PBOC and six departments aims to improve the long-term mechanism for expanding consumption and better meet financial service needs in the consumption sector [2] Group 3: Support for Private and Small Enterprises - The second quarter meeting stresses the importance of financial services for the development of the private economy and small and micro enterprises, aiming to alleviate financing bottlenecks [4] - Various policy documents have been released this year to support the healthy development of private and small enterprises, with banks focusing on expanding financial services to inject strong financial momentum into high-quality economic development [4][5] Group 4: Cross-Border Financing Initiatives - The PBOC's second quarter meeting highlights the need to promote high-level financial openness, which includes supporting cross-border financing initiatives [6] - A recent cross-border RMB syndicate financing project led by the Bank of Communications aims to support a key state-owned enterprise in Indonesia, enhancing China's position in strategic energy metals [7]

瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管：公司北向日均交易量较2017年提升12倍 智通财经5月19日电，瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管房东明在深交所2025全球投资者大会上表示，一直 以来，瑞银是通过QFII和沪深港通北向资金参与A股的重要经纪商，市场份额一直处于领先地位。在不 断提升交易能力和服务质量的努力下，相较于2017年，公司通过沪深港通进行的北向日均交易量提升了 12倍。未来，瑞银将继续把握中国金融双向开放的机遇，一方面会持续服务好中短线交易型投资者，另 一方面会把服务中长线投资型投资者作为重点的服务方向，同时也期待在衍生品和ETF领域进一步开展 业务。（记者 沈述红） ...