부피 F n I 1 1 1 面 17 9 2111 annu !! !!!!!!!!!!! 41 1 1, 1 文 | CFN 大河 作为连接丝绸之路经济带与21世纪海上丝绸之路的关键枢纽，西部陆海新通道承载着推动内陆高水平开放、构建"陆海内外联动、东西双向互济"对外开放新 格局的核心使命。近日，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、交通运输部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合印发《关于金融支 持加快西部陆海新通道建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》），以21条针对性举措构建全方位金融服务体系，其核心要义在于通过金融领域的"引进来"与"走 出去"双向发力，破解通道建设的金融瓶颈，推动西部陆海新通道从物流通道向集资金流、信息流、产业流于一体的"黄金通道"跃升。这一政策协同举措， 不仅为通道高质量发展注入强劲金融动能，更彰显了我国以金融双向开放赋能区域发展、融入全球经济的战略定力。 时代必然：金融双向开放赋能通道升级的背景逻辑 西部陆海新通道覆盖我国西部12省（区、市），辐射东盟等重点区域，其建设进程中，基础设施升级、物流贸易扩容、产业集群培育等领域的金融需求持续 攀升，但同时面临金融资源配置不均衡、 ...

Report Overview - The report is an industrial daily for the aluminum industry dated October 27, 2025, covering various aspects of the aluminum market including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The aluminum market shows different trends in different segments. Alumina may see supply reduction and slight demand increase, supporting its price; electrolytic aluminum may experience a small increase in supply and strong consumption with inventory reduction; cast aluminum may be in a tight supply - demand balance with inventory reduction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 311,269 lots, up 9,063 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,856.5 dollars/ton, down 8.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 473,125 tons, down 4,550 tons [2] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 372,484 lots, down 5,950 lots [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 140 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 6,366 lots [2] Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 21,160 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 3.19 dollars/ton, down 5.02 dollars [2] - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,795 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina basis was - 34 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina开工率 was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points; the production was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong it was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; exports were 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.8 million tons, up 31,034.96 million tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Trade**: The import of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; exports were 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 52 million tons, down 1 million tons; exports of aluminum alloy were 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: The monthly automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2] Option Situation - **Aluminum Options**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 8.59%, up 0.20 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.77%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 11.97%, up 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.21, down 0.0391 [2] Industry News - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and trade [2] - **Financial Report**: The central bank governor reported on financial work, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening financial supervision [2] - **US CPI Data**: The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [2] - **15th Five - Year Plan**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" issues, and is expected to bring new market space and investment demand [2] Alumina View Summary - **Market Trend**: The alumina main contract showed a volatile trend, with a decrease in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may decrease due to squeezed smelter profits; demand may be slightly boosted by high - level electrolytic aluminum production and positive macro expectations; prices may be supported [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened low and strengthened, with an increase in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase slightly due to increased smelting profits; demand may be strong due to the "15th Five - Year Plan" and traditional peak season; inventory is decreasing; the option market is bullish [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - **Market Trend**: The cast aluminum main contract was slightly stronger in a volatile market, with a decrease in holding volume, spot premium, and weakening basis [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may be limited by tight raw material supply; demand is resilient due to positive macro expectations and the peak season; inventory is decreasing slightly [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly converging green bars [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a modern monetary policy framework that effectively supports the economic and social development goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools and Implementation - The PBOC has implemented a total of 9 reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, reducing the RRR by 3.5 percentage points and releasing approximately 7 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3]. - A variety of monetary policy tools have been employed to maintain ample liquidity, including open market operations and reverse repos, while also enhancing the structure of monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and green development [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Outcomes - During the 14th Five-Year period, the growth rate of social financing and broad money supply (M2) has been maintained at around 9% to 10%, significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate of 6% to 7% [3]. - The cost of financing has decreased, with new corporate loans and personal mortgage rates around 3.1% as of August 2025, down by approximately 1.5 and 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2020, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Marketization - The PBOC has made significant progress in establishing a market-oriented interest rate adjustment mechanism, including the clarification of the 7-day reverse repo rate as the policy rate and the removal of the lower limit on personal housing loan rates [4][5]. - The implementation of a deposit rate marketization mechanism has led to a more flexible interest rate environment, with the LPR for 1-year and 5-year loans decreasing by 0.85 and 1.15 percentage points, respectively, since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. Group 4: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC has maintained a stable RMB exchange rate through a managed floating exchange rate system, with the RMB's annualized volatility averaging around 4% [6][7]. - Efforts to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market have included promoting risk-neutral concepts among enterprises and financial institutions, resulting in an increase in the foreign exchange hedging ratio from 17% in 2020 to approximately 30% in September 2025 [6][7]. Group 5: Communication and Expectation Management - The PBOC has strengthened its communication mechanisms to manage market expectations effectively, including regular policy announcements and financial data releases to enhance transparency and understanding of monetary policy [8]. - The central bank has also engaged in international forums to promote understanding of China's macroeconomic and financial conditions, thereby boosting confidence among international investors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" to include non-bank financial institutions enhances the overseas bond investment channels and asset allocation flexibility for domestic institutions, although there are still limitations on quotas and investment scope [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The "Southbound Bond Connect" is a crucial mechanism for interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets, allowing mainland investors to efficiently allocate overseas bond assets. It was launched on September 24, 2021, to provide a convenient channel for domestic institutional investors to invest in overseas bonds through the Hong Kong bond market [1]. - Since its inception, the Southbound Bond Connect has continuously broadened the overseas investment channels for domestic institutions, optimizing asset allocation choices and aiding the internationalization of the Renminbi. As of July 2025, the business balance conducted through this mechanism is approximately 556.44 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Operational Mechanism - The operational mechanism of the "Southbound Bond Connect" includes qualified institutional approval, quota management, and settlement mechanisms. The investment scope covers low to medium-risk, non-structured bonds or products issued overseas and traded in Hong Kong. All qualified institutions must comply with the application, approval, and reporting processes as required by the central bank and regulatory authorities [2]. - The annual total quota is set at 500 billion yuan, with investment restrictions on certain types of bonds, such as municipal investment bonds [2]. Group 3: Recent Developments - In 2025, the Southbound Bond Connect will see significant expansion, with non-bank financial institutions such as brokerages, funds, wealth management, and insurance companies being included in the pilot program. This diversification of investor types is expected to enhance liquidity and depth in the Hong Kong bond market [3]. - The offshore repurchase agreements will support multi-currency operations and allow for the secondary circulation of pledged bonds, significantly improving market efficiency and facilitating diversified asset allocation and cross-border capital operations [3]. Group 4: Investment Value Analysis - An analysis of the yield comparison between domestic and foreign bonds, along with the divergence in interest rate trends between China and the U.S., indicates that overseas bonds present significant investment value. As policies continue to improve, the Southbound Bond Connect is expected to become a preferred channel for overseas bond investments, aside from the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) model [4]. - Currently, the yield on bonds available through the Southbound Bond Connect is generally higher than that of domestic bonds, with investment targets involving more debt products in currencies such as USD and HKD, making the overall returns attractive [4].

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates a positive trend in the economy, with improved social confidence and solid progress in high-quality development, but still faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [1] - The next phase will focus on guiding financial institutions to increase monetary credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - The emphasis of economic policy is on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, with the second quarter meeting calling for enhanced financial support for key areas such as technology innovation and consumption [2] - A joint guideline issued by the PBOC and six departments aims to improve the long-term mechanism for expanding consumption and better meet financial service needs in the consumption sector [2] Group 3: Support for Private and Small Enterprises - The second quarter meeting stresses the importance of financial services for the development of the private economy and small and micro enterprises, aiming to alleviate financing bottlenecks [4] - Various policy documents have been released this year to support the healthy development of private and small enterprises, with banks focusing on expanding financial services to inject strong financial momentum into high-quality economic development [4][5] Group 4: Cross-Border Financing Initiatives - The PBOC's second quarter meeting highlights the need to promote high-level financial openness, which includes supporting cross-border financing initiatives [6] - A recent cross-border RMB syndicate financing project led by the Bank of Communications aims to support a key state-owned enterprise in Indonesia, enhancing China's position in strategic energy metals [7]

Core Insights - UBS has significantly increased its average daily trading volume through the northbound trading channel of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, achieving a 12-fold increase compared to 2017 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - UBS has maintained a leading market share as a key broker participating in A-shares through QFII and the northbound trading channel [1] - The company has focused on enhancing trading capabilities and service quality to achieve this growth [1] Group 2: Future Strategy - UBS plans to continue leveraging opportunities from China's financial dual opening, aiming to serve both short-term and long-term investors [1] - The company intends to prioritize services for long-term investment-oriented clients while also expanding its business in derivatives and ETFs [1]