Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a downturn during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with rebar prices dropping to around 3100 yuan/ton due to weaker-than-expected demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The steel market's performance in the traditional peak season has been disappointing, with prices falling from 3200 yuan/ton in mid-September to a low of 3021 yuan/ton in mid-October [1] - The adjustment in steel prices began in late September, primarily due to weakened macro expectations and significantly lower demand during the peak season [2] - By late October, trade tensions showed signs of easing, leading to a marginal improvement in steel demand, which helped prices stabilize around 3000 yuan/ton [1][2] Group 2: Future Price Expectations - As November approaches, the steel market is expected to enter a traditional demand slump, with further price declines likely due to reduced demand [2] - The expectation is that steel prices may test lower levels again in November, but a potential rebound could occur in late November due to decreasing supply and strong policy expectations [4] Group 3: Supply and Profitability - In October, domestic pig iron production remained high, contributing to the strength of iron ore prices, while the rising costs of iron ore and coking coal contrasted with the weakening steel prices [2] - The profitability of steel mills has been under pressure, with the proportion of profitable mills dropping from 68% in early August to 45% by the end of October [3] - The anticipated further decline in steel demand and ongoing losses for steel mills may lead to increased willingness to cut production, especially with potential upgrades to production restrictions during the heating season [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the steel market in November suggests a potential for prices to decline further initially, followed by a possible recovery as discussions around winter storage begin and supply from loss-making mills decreases [4] - Iron ore faces demand pressure from declining pig iron production, while global iron ore shipments have increased since October, leading to a continued oversupply situation [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the federal government shutdown has disrupted official economic data, leading to average market demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The first - stage cease - fire in Gaza has reduced global risk - aversion. Domestically, poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing global stock markets to rise. The central bank's large - scale MLF renewal has ensured market liquidity, and the introduction of multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans has increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and future focus should be on Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds will oscillate; among commodities, black metals will oscillate, non - ferrous metals will oscillate strongly, energy and chemicals will oscillate, and precious metals will oscillate strongly at a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The federal government shutdown has disrupted economic data, resulting in average demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The Gaza cease - fire has reduced risk - aversion [3]. - Domestic: Poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased Fed rate - cut expectations, leading to a rise in global stock markets. The central bank's MLF renewal has ensured liquidity, and industry growth - stabilizing plans have increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite [3][4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, and rare earths, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Supported by factors like US economic data and domestic policies, the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volumes. The rise of overseas non - ferrous and precious metals during the holiday has boosted market risk appetite. However, real demand is weak, with a 127 - million - ton increase in the inventory of five major steel products during the holiday, exceeding the five - year average. After late October, demand may further weaken. Supply is expected to remain high as steel mills' profits are still acceptable, and the logic of compressing steel mill profits will continue. The steel market is likely to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to strengthen. The news of long - term contract negotiations has increased expectations of supply contraction. Ore demand remains strong as the daily average pig iron output is above 2.4 million tons. During the holiday, global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.96 million tons, while arrivals increased by 2.482 million tons, and port inventories increased by 1.69 million tons. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, the short - term probability of actual negative feedback is low as the proportion of profitable steel mills is over 56%. Iron ore prices will oscillate within a range after the holiday, with negative feedback risks from late October to November [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - LME copper has broken through and risen due to concerns about tight global copper supply. An accident at the Grasberg mine has affected production by 270,000 tons, with a plan to resume production in mid - 2026 and fully recover in 2027. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, with a 11.62% year - on - year increase in September, but demand is facing challenges as previous demand - boosting factors weaken. Copper de - stocking has not met expectations, and the US economic situation needs to be monitored [8]. Aluminum - It was previously expected that SHFE aluminum would stabilize and oscillate within a 200 - 300 - point range, which has basically come true. During the holiday, the rise in copper prices has boosted aluminum prices, but on Thursday, SHFE aluminum underperformed, and the domestic - foreign price difference has decreased significantly. Domestic aluminum social inventories have accumulated during the holiday, exceeding expectations. With rigid supply and weakening demand, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8][9]. Tin - LME tin has soared due to the rise in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining, but the upward space is limited. The price is supported by tight ore supply and low smelting operating rates due to maintenance at a large Yunnan smelter. However, smelters are expected to resume production in October, and ore supply will increase after November. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term but face upward pressure [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the main carbonate lithium 2511 contract rose 0.27%, with a settlement price of 73,700 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 1,559 lots, with a total position of 677,900 lots. The supply and demand of carbonate lithium are both increasing, with strong seasonal demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to oscillate, and the upper pressure range should be monitored [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.29%, with a settlement price of 8,645 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 8,057 lots, with a total position of 407,800 lots. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts at the end of November. The market is expected to oscillate, and the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises should be monitored [10]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract had a 0% increase, with a settlement price of 50,185 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 7,663 lots, with a total position of 234,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November. With high supply and low demand, the market is waiting for the implementation of state - reserve purchase news, and the support of spot prices should be monitored [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - After Israel reached an agreement with Hamas on hostage release and implemented a cease - fire, crude oil prices have declined as OPEC+ increases supply and demand lacks new positive signals. The strengthening of the US dollar has also reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities [12]. Asphalt - As crude oil prices decline again, asphalt shows signs of breaking through the lower limit. The peak - season demand is almost over, and the pressure of over - supply remains. The basis is still falling, and there is some pressure for social inventory accumulation, while factory inventory is slightly increasing. The profit has recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. The impact of OPEC+ production increase on crude oil prices and the support of crude oil prices should be monitored [12][13]. PX - The change in PX is limited. The previous changes in Xinjiang's facilities have little impact on the market. The cost support from crude oil remains, but the small positive impact of increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased to $218, and the external PX price has fallen to $804. PTA's short - term processing fee has been squeezed, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. With the decline of the polyester market, PX may oscillate weakly but has some support at the bottom [13]. PTA - The peak - season demand is lower than expected, with low terminal orders and low operating rates of looms. The rumor of production cuts by leading PTA manufacturers has been disproven, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. There is also a possibility that the restart of maintenance facilities will be postponed. The market has some support at the previous low but faces long - term downward pressure [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol continues to decline and oscillates at a low level. Similar to PTA, it faces challenges in downstream demand, with high short - term operating rates and new production capacity pressure. Although the current inventory is low, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward space for price rebound is limited in the medium term [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The LLDPE transaction price is 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with prices in the North and East regions falling. Supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season, but the post - holiday inventory accumulation suppresses prices. With new capacity coming on - line, the transition to the off - season, and the decline of crude oil prices, the price of PE is expected to decline [14]. Urea - The urea market is weakly declining. The supply - demand situation is under pressure. During the National Day holiday, most factories maintained stable prices, fulfilling previous orders. After the holiday, production is expected to remain above 190,000 tons per day. The agricultural demand recovery is slow due to rainfall, and industrial demand is weak. Although there is potential support from reserve demand and Indian tenders, the overall support is limited. The price may decline slightly in the short term, and the export policy after the holiday should be monitored [14][15]. Methanol - The methanol market in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has acceptable trading. The price in Inner Mongolia's northern line has decreased by 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the southern line is stable. In Jiangsu, the methanol market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. After the holiday, methanol inventory has accumulated, and the high port inventory suppresses prices. There is no effective way to reduce inventory in the short term, but it is expected to oscillate weakly with support from domestic and foreign gas - restriction expectations. Opportunities for long - term long positions should be awaited [14]. PP - The market trading atmosphere is good, with the mainstream price of East China's drawn wire at 6,650 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefins has increased by 270,000 tons. With increasing supply pressure, average downstream demand, and increasing inventory pressure, combined with the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of PP is expected to decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The prospects of Sino - US soybean trade and the MFP program will be the main focus of the oil - and - oilseed market. After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming US soybean imports. If a phased arrangement is reached in the coming weeks, the possibility of resuming trade will increase. The implementation of the MFP program will reduce farmers' holding costs and relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, which is positive for CBOT soybeans [16]. Hogs - After the holiday, the demand for hogs will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork purchase - and - storage dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected supply - demand gap of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is negative for soybean meal. In the short term, the phased replenishment of soybean meal may increase, and the cost support for near - month soybean meal will strengthen as the pressure of concentrated US soybean listing eases. The spread between near - and far - month contracts may widen. For rapeseed meal, the seasonal impact on imported rapeseed meal has significantly shrunk, and domestic rapeseed inventory is running out. Before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and its market is mainly led by soybean meal [18]. Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with the order of strength being rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Rapeseed oil inventory will be depleted rapidly before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, providing support. Palm oil is mainly driven by cost, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude oil prices, and strong related oils providing additional support. Soybean oil may experience seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday and may perform relatively weakly [18]. Corn - The room for the price decline of new corn in the Northeast after the holiday may be limited. The increase in corn prices in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, and the demand for acquisition has increased. More acquisition entities will enter the market after the holiday. In addition, the rapid rebound of wheat prices in October will also support the corn market [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, global risk appetite has risen, and the domestic risk - preference is also expected to continue to increase. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; among commodity sectors, black metals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the US September ADP employment data and ISM services PMI were below expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the depreciation of the yen pushed the US dollar stronger, global risk appetite continued to rise. Domestically, the US economic data during the National Day holiday was below expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and global stock markets generally rose. The domestic central bank made a large - scale renewal of MLF, with abundant market liquidity. Multiple domestic industries' steady - growth plans were successively introduced, increasing policy support, and domestic risk appetite is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [4]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Before the holiday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, and trading volume was at a low level. During the holiday, the EU's tariff increase on the steel industry was confirmed. The real demand continued to weaken, but there were differences in trends among varieties. The demand for rebar improved, with pre - holiday inventory decreasing by 139,800 tons and apparent consumption increasing by 104,100 tons; hot - rolled coils saw inventory accumulation and a decline in apparent consumption. The supply of five major steel products increased by 94,700 tons month - on - month, and the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. The logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue, and the steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [5]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Before the holiday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong. The daily average pig - iron output of blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons, and ore demand was still strong. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 2.48 million tons month - on - month before the holiday, while the arrival volume increased by 3.127 million tons, and the overall supply remained high. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 1.69 million tons throughout the week. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has intensified, considering that the proportion of profitable steel mills is still above 56%, the probability of actual negative feedback being triggered in the short term is not high. The iron ore price should be treated with an interval - oscillation idea in the short term, and there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November [6]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Before the holiday, the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly. The downstream steel mills' centralized procurement in September was basically completed, and with the approaching of the October tender, the downstream demand is expected to improve. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - Before the holiday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated weakly. The supply is still in the capacity - release period, maintaining a loose pattern with pressure. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand increased month - on - month. Currently, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate widely in the short - term range. In the long - term, the supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view should be taken [8]. 3.3.5 Glass - Before the holiday, the main contract of glass fluctuated within a range. After the release of the "Building Materials Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the glass price formed a bottom support. Fundamentally, the supply remained stable, and in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, demand improved marginally, and the mid - and downstream carried out phased restocking. The overall supply - demand situation of glass has improved, and it is advisable to be long in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - During the holiday, LME copper rose due to concerns about the tight global copper - mine supply. The Grasberg mining area had an accident, affecting a production volume of 270,000 tons. It is expected to resume production in 2026 and fully return to normal in 2027. The domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 11.62% in September. The demand faced challenges as the factors boosting demand weakened. The recent copper inventory reduction was less than expected. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the US economic situation, which is in a slow - down trend [9]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Before the holiday, downstream restocking and the decline in aluminum prices stimulated downstream restocking, resulting in a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons in the weekly social inventory of aluminum. It is expected that inventory will accumulate during the holiday. Currently, the aluminum supply is rigid, with domestic production and imports at historical highs, while demand weakened marginally. The year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand in September dropped from 5% - 6% in the second quarter to - 0.7%. If deduced, even if there is inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, the speed and amplitude will be low, which will restrict the upside space of aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose mainly driven by the increase in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 21,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum [9]. 3.4.3 Tin - During the holiday, LME tin soared, driven by the increase in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin - mine exploitation. However, the impact of Indonesia's policy is limited, so the upward height is expected to be restricted. The tin price has support below due to the tightness in the mining end and the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan, resulting in a low smelting start - up rate. However, the smelter maintenance is short - term, and they will resume production in October, with the start - up rate expected to rise. The mining end will also loosen in the long run. It is expected that the price will remain in high - level oscillation in the short term, and the maintenance expectation and peak - season expectation will still support the price, but the upside space will still be under pressure [10]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - In September, the lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with weekly production reaching a new high. Driven by energy storage, the demand in the peak season is strong, and the social inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downside space is limited. The market will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the driving force of anti - involution policies [10]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon - In September, the industrial silicon output was 412,031 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month. The weekly production remained at a high level, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. There is no obvious driving force for industrial silicon, and the market should be regarded as oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [10]. 3.4.6 Polysilicon - In September, the polysilicon output was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a start - up rate of 47.28%. The latest weekly inventory was 273,800 tons, remaining at a high level. The number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. The situation of high supply and low demand persists, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price while waiting for the further implementation of the stockpiling news [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US domestic oil product inventory decreased, and the distillate inventory had the largest decline since late June, while the Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. However, OPEC+ is increasing production, the US is expected to set a production record, and Russia's exports are approaching a 16 - month high. The bearish outlook from this year to next year is still strong. Later, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the overall surplus risk will gradually increase. The short - term spot still has some support, and it may maintain an interval - oscillation pattern under geopolitical risks [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The oil price rebounded from the bottom, driving the asphalt price to rebound. However, the peak - season demand is gradually passing, and the surplus pressure remains. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and the social inventory has not been significantly reduced, while the factory inventory has only been slightly reduced. The profit has recovered slightly recently, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. Later, the oil price will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When the asphalt inventory continues to be reduced limitedly, attention should be paid to the extent of its following the oil - price increase [11]. 3.5.3 PX - During the holiday, the change in PX was generally limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the polyester sector after the opening, and the crude - oil cost pricing support still exists. The small positive impact brought by the previous low - level start - up of devices and the increase in maintenance plans has basically been priced in. The PXN spread has recently decreased slightly to $218, and the PX outer - market price has fallen to $804. The short - term processing fee of PTA has been significantly squeezed. PX is still in a tight pattern, but the recent decline in the polyester sector as a whole may lead to a weak - oscillation trend, with some support below [13]. 3.5.4 PTA - The peak - season demand was still below expectations, terminal orders were sluggish, and the start - up rates of looms were still lower than in previous years. The reduction and shutdown of leading PTA manufacturers under low processing fees were disproven, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later. Later, the restart of maintenance devices may be delayed. There is still some support at the previous low. However, in the short term, with a large increase in short positions by funds, if the crude - oil price does not fluctuate significantly, the futures price still has long - term downward pressure [13]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price maintained low - level oscillation. The downstream demand faces similar problems as PTA. Coupled with the currently high start - up rate and the pressure of new production capacity, although the current inventory is already low, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later, and the medium - term rebound height is limited. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with a limited amplitude. The increase in the short - fiber start - up rate has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction requires the continuous improvement of terminal orders to drive the increase in the start - up rate. Currently, the subsequent upside space may be limited. In the medium term, short - fiber should follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The inland methanol market oscillated narrowly. After the holiday, methanol inventory accumulated, and the high port inventory suppressed the price. There is no effective inventory - reduction path in the short term, but supported by the expectation of domestic and foreign gas restrictions, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for the opportunity to lay out long positions in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.5.8 PP - The market price slightly recovered. The supply - side pressure of PP is prominent, downstream demand is average, inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and coupled with the weak crude - oil price, the price is expected to be under pressure [13]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price increased slightly. Supply increased, and it is the peak - demand season. The short - term supply - demand situation is okay, but inventory accumulation after the holiday will have some suppression on the price. With the commissioning of devices, the transition to the off - season of demand, and the downward shift of the crude - oil price center, it is expected that there is still room for the PE price to fall [13]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT market closed at 1012.00, up 3.00 or 0.30% (settlement price 1012.25). After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming soybean imports from the US. If a phased arrangement is reached in the following weeks, the possibility of resuming soybean trade will increase. In addition, if the MFP plan is implemented, it will reduce farmers' grain - holding costs, relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, and be beneficial to CBOT soybeans [14]. 3.6.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected gap in the domestic soybean supply - demand in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is bearish for soybean meal. In the short term, the short - term restocking of soybean meal may increase, and as the pressure of the concentrated listing of US soybeans eases and remains stable, the cost support for the near - month soybean meal is also expected to strengthen. However, as the risk of the far - month gap decreases, the spread between months may widen. For rapeseed meal, the import of rapeseed meal has shrunk significantly due to seasonal impacts, and domestic rapeseed inventory is exhausted. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and soybean meal dominates its main market [14]. 3.6.3 Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the accelerating reduction of rapeseed oil inventory will form support; palm oil is cost - dominated, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude - oil prices, and the strength of related oils providing additional support; soybean oil may have phased inventory accumulation due to the post - holiday demand gap, and the price may be relatively weak [15]. 3.6.4 Corn - During the holiday, the corn market in Northeast China continued to decline. After the holiday, the space for a further slight decline in the new corn in the Northeast may be limited. On the one hand, the increase in the corn price in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, the number of arriving vehicles decreased, and the acquisition demand increased; on the other hand, more acquisition entities will start to enter the market to purchase grain after the holiday. In addition, the wheat price rebounded rapidly in October. Although the wheat purchase at the support price has ended, the supply pressure of wheat has significantly decreased due to the previous accelerated grain sales. It is expected that the wheat price will continue to rise after the holiday, which will also provide support for the corn market [15]. 3.6.5 Pigs - During the holiday, the pig price continued to decline. After the holiday, demand will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork stockpiling dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, finished steel products may face pressure, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production, with a high probability of molten iron production reaching its peak. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts require further compression of steel mill profits to ease supply pressure. The unilateral drive of finished steel products may continue downward, but the absolute prices are not low, so the risk of chasing short positions is relatively high. It is recommended to focus on short - profit positions [2][62] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - In April, although there were many expectations of steel mill production restrictions, no definite documents were issued. Steel mills maintained good profits, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises around 60%, higher than in 2024. In the traditional peak demand season of April, steel products were destocked, and steel mills had little inventory pressure, so they had little willingness to cut production actively. In the first quarter, the crude steel output increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In April, the output of the five major steel products increased by 2.04% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year, and the daily average molten iron output was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. It is expected that the crude steel output in April will increase by about 4% year - on - year. In May, due to better profits than in 2024 and seasonal factors, supply is expected to increase further [3][9] Demand - In April, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to improve, with an average of 933310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the year - on - year decline rate was narrowing. The decrease was mainly due to the building materials sector. The average apparent demand for rebar in April was 265570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.01%. The demand for plates was good. In the first week of May, the data decreased significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to be related to holidays and pre - holiday stockpiling, and the demand was relatively stable on a two - week average. The manufacturing industry performed well in the first quarter, with manufacturing investment from January to March increasing by 9.1% year - on - year. Benefiting from policies, the steel demand in the automotive, home appliance, and machinery manufacturing industries increased. In April, the high - frequency data showed that the demand for automobiles and home appliances was still strong, and the growth rate accelerated. However, the manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export order index was 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The real estate sector still dragged down steel demand, but some data improved. The infrastructure demand was better than in 2024, and the direct export in the first half of the year is expected to maintain growth [10][13][24] Inventory - In April, the destocking speed of rebar accelerated, with a weekly destocking of about 50000 tons at the end of the month, basically the same as in 2024, and the inventory at the end of the month was only 653630 tons. In May, rebar faces the pressure of slower destocking, and enterprises are actively destocking. Hot - rolled coils have strong supply and demand and have been destocking since March, with inventory significantly lower than in 2024. However, the supply pressure of cold - rolled coils is high, and there was basically no destocking in April, and the price difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils narrowed. Plates still face inventory pressure [41] Raw Materials - In addition to export factors, the weakness of raw materials is an important factor in the decline of steel prices, mainly coking coal. High supply and high upstream inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. Currently, the 09 contract has fallen below 900, and there are expectations of a decline in domestic and some imported coal supplies. The core factor for price fluctuations is demand. Coke mainly follows coking coal. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is low, and the total inventory is higher than in 2024. After the first price increase, whether another increase can be implemented is driven by the price of finished steel products. In the first quarter, the global iron ore shipment decreased by about 8 million tons year - on - year, and there was no year - on - year increase in April. Considering the high molten iron production, the pressure of iron ore inventory accumulation in the second quarter is not large, and the 09 contract is deeply discounted against the spot, which also supports the futures price. Overall, raw material supply is not the main problem, and the price decline in April was mainly due to poor steel demand expectations, and the core driver in May is still expected to be demand [45]