商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 【股指】 在贵金属、工业金属以及稀土等板块的带动下，国内股市大幅上涨。基 本面上，国庆期间美国经济数据不及预期，增强美联储降息预期，全球股市整体 上涨。国内央行大额续作 MLF，市场流动性充裕；政策方面；此外，国内多个行 业稳增长方案陆续出台，政策支持力度加大，国内风险偏好有望继续升温。近期 市场交易逻辑主要聚焦在国内增量刺激政策上，短 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, finished steel products may face pressure, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production, with a high probability of molten iron production reaching its peak. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts require further compression of steel mill profits to ease supply pressure. The unilateral drive of finished steel products may continue downward, but the absolute prices are not low, so the risk of chasing short positions is relatively high. It is recommended to focus on short - profit positions [2][62] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - In April, although there were many expectations of steel mill production restrictions, no definite documents were issued. Steel mills maintained good profits, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises around 60%, higher than in 2024. In the traditional peak demand season of April, steel products were destocked, and steel mills had little inventory pressure, so they had little willingness to cut production actively. In the first quarter, the crude steel output increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In April, the output of the five major steel products increased by 2.04% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year, and the daily average molten iron output was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. It is expected that the crude steel output in April will increase by about 4% year - on - year. In May, due to better profits than in 2024 and seasonal factors, supply is expected to increase further [3][9] Demand - In April, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to improve, with an average of 933310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the year - on - year decline rate was narrowing. The decrease was mainly due to the building materials sector. The average apparent demand for rebar in April was 265570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.01%. The demand for plates was good. In the first week of May, the data decreased significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to be related to holidays and pre - holiday stockpiling, and the demand was relatively stable on a two - week average. The manufacturing industry performed well in the first quarter, with manufacturing investment from January to March increasing by 9.1% year - on - year. Benefiting from policies, the steel demand in the automotive, home appliance, and machinery manufacturing industries increased. In April, the high - frequency data showed that the demand for automobiles and home appliances was still strong, and the growth rate accelerated. However, the manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export order index was 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The real estate sector still dragged down steel demand, but some data improved. The infrastructure demand was better than in 2024, and the direct export in the first half of the year is expected to maintain growth [10][13][24] Inventory - In April, the destocking speed of rebar accelerated, with a weekly destocking of about 50000 tons at the end of the month, basically the same as in 2024, and the inventory at the end of the month was only 653630 tons. In May, rebar faces the pressure of slower destocking, and enterprises are actively destocking. Hot - rolled coils have strong supply and demand and have been destocking since March, with inventory significantly lower than in 2024. However, the supply pressure of cold - rolled coils is high, and there was basically no destocking in April, and the price difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils narrowed. Plates still face inventory pressure [41] Raw Materials - In addition to export factors, the weakness of raw materials is an important factor in the decline of steel prices, mainly coking coal. High supply and high upstream inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. Currently, the 09 contract has fallen below 900, and there are expectations of a decline in domestic and some imported coal supplies. The core factor for price fluctuations is demand. Coke mainly follows coking coal. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is low, and the total inventory is higher than in 2024. After the first price increase, whether another increase can be implemented is driven by the price of finished steel products. In the first quarter, the global iron ore shipment decreased by about 8 million tons year - on - year, and there was no year - on - year increase in April. Considering the high molten iron production, the pressure of iron ore inventory accumulation in the second quarter is not large, and the 09 contract is deeply discounted against the spot, which also supports the futures price. Overall, raw material supply is not the main problem, and the price decline in April was mainly due to poor steel demand expectations, and the core driver in May is still expected to be demand [45]