商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 【股指】 在贵金属、工业金属以及稀土等板块的带动下，国内股市大幅上涨。基 本面上，国庆期间美国经济数据不及预期，增强美联储降息预期，全球股市整体 上涨。国内央行大额续作 MLF，市场流动性充裕；政策方面；此外，国内多个行 业稳增长方案陆续出台，政策支持力度加大，国内风险偏好有望继续升温。近期 市场交易逻辑主要聚焦在国内增量刺激政策上，短 ...

销售端：第33 周新房成交环比下降2%，二手房成交环比上升2%。1）本周20 城商品房成交面积140 万 方，商品房日平均成交面积20.0 万方，环比下降2%，同比下降21%。2）从累计数据来看，年初至今20 城商品房成交面积6380万方，累计同比下降8%。3）第33 周11 城二手房成交面积173 万方，日平均成 交面积24.8 万方，环比上升2%，同比下降2%。4）从累计数据来看，年初至今11 城二手房成交面积 6413 万方，同比上升13%。 投资策略：部分核心城市新房、宅地成交热度较高均为优质供给驱动，但优质供给也会挤压老库存和二 手房去化，二者仍面临一定价格下行压力。有效的政策关键在于广义财政发力，期待城中村改造和收储 进一步推进；二手房价或为地产见底的观测指标，核心逻辑是当前城市是二手房决定整体房价锚，新房 基于高品质有溢价空间，二手房价企稳后才有量价回升的基础。建议关注：1）具备好产品护城河房 企，有望表现出较强alpha 属性；2）优质商业地产公司的租金稳定性；3）存量房中介业务方向。重点 关注绿城中国、华润置地、太古地产、华润万象生活、贝壳-W 等。 风险提示：产业、人口兑现不及预期，广义财 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the increasing attention on silicon material "stockpiling," with the market considering a price of 60,000 yuan/ton as reasonable based on supply-demand matching assumptions [3] - The convertible bond price of JA Solar has been adjusted down to a lower level of 11.66 yuan, enhancing its value and leading to a price increase, with expectations of more solar companies following suit [3] - The performance of stocks related to "anti-involution" themes will be determined by policy support for prices, the feasibility of "stockpiling" plans, and the downstream power station's acceptance of prices [3] Group 2 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is set to officially commence on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating high short-term investment enthusiasm for turbine projects [4] - The GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) segment is highlighted as a key area of focus, with its investment scale comparable to that of turbines, especially following the successful operation of the world's first 550 kV C4 environmentally friendly GIL [4] Group 3 - Wind power is expected to benefit from "anti-involution" policies, with significant performance elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine assembly sector, driven by larger units and cost reductions in components [4] - The 136 document is reshaping the logic of new energy installations, with expectations of a recovery in wind power development and power station sales due to favorable output curves [4] Group 4 - Solid-state batteries are viewed positively for future trends, with recent weak performance attributed to prior high gains; focus is on all-solid-state battery equipment and advancements in semi-solid batteries [4] - The short-term introduction of pricing policies for large-scale electrochemical storage in Gansu is expected to improve independent storage IRR, with other provinces likely to follow suit [5] - The current high demand for domestic storage bidding is driven by consumption pressure and improved business models, while overseas storage remains robust [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the polysilicon and industrial silicon markets, focusing on price fluctuations, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic policies affecting these industries [1][5][24]. Key Points and Arguments Polysilicon Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2024, polysilicon prices fluctuated significantly due to production cuts by industry leaders and inventory sales, dropping from 9,500 CNY/ton to 7,000 CNY/ton, then recovering by 1,000 CNY due to further production cuts [1]. - The cash cost of polysilicon initially was around 36,000 CNY, with recent price fluctuations causing it to rise to over 45,000 CNY, while transaction volumes remained low [6][7]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is approximately 400,000 tons, equivalent to four months of industry consumption, with a monthly production close to 100,000 tons [9]. Industrial Silicon Market Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, industrial silicon prices initially hovered around 10,000 CNY/ton but fell to about 7,000 CNY due to expectations of abundant water supply and insufficient polysilicon production [2]. - The total inventory of industrial silicon, including hidden stocks, reached over 1.5 million tons, sufficient for more than five months of consumption [9]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The polysilicon market is currently oversupplied, with total production capacity at 3.65 million tons and monthly production around 100,000 tons, while total demand is only 120,000 to 130,000 tons [3][16]. - The industry is experiencing a significant inventory buildup, particularly in July and August, where production is expected to increase to 110,000 tons per month [16]. Macroeconomic Policies - Current macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the market by preventing sales below production costs and promoting healthy industry development through joint pricing and acquisition of outdated capacities [5][24]. - The policies are designed to enhance overall competitiveness and ensure that product prices do not fall below costs, as discussed in various industry meetings [5]. Cost and Pricing Variations - There are significant differences in cash costs among polysilicon producers, affecting the overall market cost structure. For instance, the reduction efficiency of different production methods can lead to cost differences of 4,000 to 5,000 CNY per ton [20]. - The production cost for large furnace industrial silicon has decreased due to improvements in labor, waste heat power generation, and efficiency, impacting smaller furnace operations negatively [19]. Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of price adjustments needed for downstream acceptance of higher polysilicon prices. The downstream industry is currently reluctant to accept prices above 40,000 CNY [17][24]. - The potential for production cuts exists, but the feasibility is challenged by varying production costs among companies, making unified agreements difficult [29][23]. Technological Developments - Advances in battery technologies, such as perovskite and n-type batteries, are influencing polysilicon demand, with n-type batteries requiring slightly less polysilicon compared to p-type [18]. Additional Important Insights - The acceptance of standard delivery products in the downstream market is low due to quality concerns and cost implications, leading to a preference for mixed package materials [8]. - The overall market is characterized by a significant amount of hidden inventory and a cautious approach to purchasing, with many companies prioritizing inventory reduction over new purchases [26][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the polysilicon and industrial silicon markets.

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures is attributed to the acceleration of the "anti-involution" policy, making it the hottest commodity in the futures market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 10, polysilicon futures rose by 5.5%, surpassing the 40,000 yuan mark, closing at 41,345 yuan/ton, reaching a near three-month high with a trading volume of 1.015 million lots, setting a historical record [2][7] - Since July, polysilicon futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 23% [7] - The trading volume for all polysilicon contracts reached 1.557 million lots, with an open interest of 326,000 lots, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market has experienced significant volatility this year due to supply-demand mismatches and policy adjustments [4] - Earlier in the year, polysilicon prices stabilized due to increased demand for N-type technology, but a subsequent drop in demand led to prices falling to around 31,000 yuan, even below the industry cost line [5] - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a sudden price surge in polysilicon futures, with notable price increases on July 2 and 8 [6] Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Sentiment - The SMM polysilicon price index on July 10 was 44.8 yuan/kg, with N-type polysilicon prices ranging from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant recovery in spot prices [9] - Some companies have raised their quotes to 49 yuan/kg, driven by the need to align prices with comprehensive cost calculations, which have increased due to depreciation costs [10] - The recent price hikes are primarily due to polysilicon companies operating at a loss for over a year, leading to a need to clear inventory and comply with pricing regulations [10] Group 4: Regulatory Measures - In response to the rising volatility in polysilicon futures, the Guangxi Futures Exchange announced a margin adjustment policy on July 10 to cool down the overheated market and mitigate risks [3][14] - The new margin requirements for speculative trading have been set at 11%, while hedging transactions require a margin of 10% [13] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Despite the rapid increase in polysilicon prices, other key commodities like lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have only seen slight increases, indicating potential oversupply issues in the photovoltaic industry [11] - The high concentration of the industry and unexpected joint production cuts have led to a quicker turnaround in supply-demand dynamics, resulting in greater price volatility for polysilicon [11]

豆粕走升,白糖反弹 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕强劲走高,受到美豆强势提振,国内养殖需求旺盛,下游企 业豆粕提货积极,豆粕库存累积缓慢,支撑豆粕走高,走势偏强。白 糖反弹,外盘低位反弹以及国内夏季消费旺季到来皆支撑白糖反弹上 扬,后市或有继续回升空间。油脂板块震荡有升,市场继续消化美生 柴政策消息的影响,走势整体维持高位运行特征。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕: 大幅上涨 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约大幅上涨,创阶段性新高: 1. 美国政府提出的明年和后年生物燃料混合要求高于行业预期, 且包括抑制生物燃料进口的措施,推动美豆油连续涨停,带动美豆期 价持稳上扬,对国内豆类品种有支撑影响。尽管国内油厂开机率持续 高位运行,但得益于终端养殖需求旺盛及豆粕提货积极性良好,豆粕 库存累积进程缓慢。Mysteel 数据显示截至第24周,豆粕库存 41万 吨,环比增幅 7.19%,同比下降 58.79%。豆粕多头买盘积极,增仓推 升行情走高。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约高位上扬,站上均线系统,技术偏强, 策略上轻仓多单,豆粕2509 合约支撑 3050,阻力 3100。 (二)豆油:震荡上行 焦点关注:豆油主力2509 合 ...

基本金属 | | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：昨日在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，美元走弱明显，贵金属 | | | | | | 铜 | | 和铜得到支撑。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续。换月后，现货紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 420 元 | | | | | | | | 和 220 元，back 结构依然偏强。周度国内库存增加 0.72 万吨。交易策略：以宽幅震荡思路对待。风险提示： | | | | | | | | 全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.20%，收于 20110 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 170 元/吨， | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2450 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | | 铝 | | | | | | | | | | 题有 ...

能源化工日报 ◆ 橡胶： 5 月 19 日受收储信息提振，RU 重心窄幅上行。基本面看，短期胶水上量 缓慢，原料维持高位，胶价底部支撑仍存，青岛现货总库存虽延续小幅 累库；后期供应端上量预期偏强，下游需求表现疲软，整体向上驱动不 产业服务总部 能化产业服务中心 2025-05-20 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 研究员： 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 19 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4948 元/吨（-11），常州市场价 4840 元/吨（0），主力基差-108 元/吨(+11），广州市场价 4880 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4860 元/吨（0）。近期在中美贸易和谈后，宏观情绪有所回 暖，PVC 库存仍在高位但略低于去年同期，季节性去库过程中，前期基 差走强给盘面一定的底部支撑。但中长期看，PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，出口以价换量持稳状态，且 出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右），制品出口端关税影响仍存；供应端 有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，最近库存去化尚可 但仍然高企。需求不足、产 ...

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