今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于14603一线下方，今日开盘于14887元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报14575元/千克，下跌0.64%，最高触及14941元/千克，最低下探14510元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息的决定是正确的，但下一步行动尚难判断。威廉姆斯在新泽西州 泽西市的一场活动上对记者表示："我非常支持我们做出的决定"，即把美联储基准利率下调25个基点。 展望1月27日至28日的政策会议，他表示："我们将等待并收集所有相关数据"，目前"还为时过早，无法 判断下一次货币政策决定该怎么做"。通过缩表，美联储已基本上将银行准备金水平降至"充足"水平。 "我们现在基本上已经达到了这一水平，"威廉姆斯在谈及理论上的充足银行准备金水平时说道。达到这 一门槛促使美联储上周重启购债操作，即其所谓的"准备金管理购买"。威廉姆斯指出，银行准备金必须 随着银行需求逐步增加。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，昨日白银td结束连续收阳局面，小幅收跌，今日白银td走势窄幅震荡，目前处于正值区间， 行情多空交锋，布林带开口向上开口 ...

纽约联储总裁威廉姆斯周一表示，美联储上周降息的决定是正确的，但下一步行动尚难判断。威廉姆斯 在新泽西州泽西市的一场活动上对记者表示，"我非常支持我们做出的决定"，即把美联储基准利率下调 25个基点。展望明年1月27日至28日的政策会议，他表示："我们将等待并收集所有相关数据"，目前"还 为时过早，无法判断下一次货币政策决定该怎么做"。 威廉姆斯表示，通过缩表，美联储已基本上将银行准备金水平降至"充足"水平。达到这一门槛促使美联 储上周重启购债操作，即其所谓的"准备金管理购买"。威廉姆斯指出，银行准备金必须随着银行需求逐 步增加。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美联储威廉姆斯表示，通过缩表，美联储已基本上将 银行准备金水平降至"充足"水平。"我们现在基本 上已经达到了这一水平，"威廉姆斯在谈及理论上的充足银行准备金水平时说道。达到这一门槛促使美 联储上周重启购债操作，即其所谓的"准备金管理购买"。威廉姆斯指出，银行准备金必须随着银行需求 逐步增加。 ...

Core Insights - A severe liquidity crisis erupted in the U.S. financial markets in November, causing global market turmoil and significant asset sell-offs [3][5][12] - The crisis is attributed to the Federal Reserve's inability to continue its quantitative easing policies, leading to a lack of trust in U.S. debt and a tightening of liquidity [7][12][29] Group 1: Market Reactions - The liquidity crisis led to a dramatic sell-off in global markets, with Japan's stock market dropping 4% and South Korea's by 5% on the same day [5][12] - U.S. financial institutions began liquidating assets in Asia to recover cash, resulting in a surge in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off of other currencies like the yen and won [5][7] Group 2: Underlying Issues - The U.S. faces three major challenges: excessive national debt raising doubts about repayment, government shutdowns reducing market liquidity, and the emergence of stablecoins diverting funds from traditional banks [13][19][21] - Bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, nearing a critical threshold identified by Federal Reserve officials, indicating a severe liquidity crunch [15][17] Group 3: Government and Political Dynamics - The government shutdown is a result of political conflicts over healthcare spending, with implications for market stability and potential impacts on the upcoming elections [25][27] - If the government resumes spending, it could temporarily inject $700 billion into the market, but this would not address the underlying issues of fiscal sustainability [27][29] Group 4: Future Implications - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy, including potential tax cuts and increased spending, could exacerbate the national deficit and undermine confidence in the dollar [29][31] - Investment in sectors like AI, while promising, may not translate into broader economic benefits, risking the creation of financial bubbles similar to past crises [31][33] Group 5: Global Context - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. is not just a national issue but poses a significant challenge to the global financial order, with potential repercussions for international markets [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% is seen as a response to economic conditions, with market focus shifting towards guidance for December's rate decisions and the end of the balance sheet reduction plan [1][8]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut since the resumption of easing in September 2025 [1][8]. - Stephen Miran, a board member, voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, but this view did not gain widespread support [1][8]. FOMC Statement and Economic Indicators - The FOMC statement indicated that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with a slight adjustment in language regarding employment risks, suggesting a softening labor market despite data gaps due to government shutdowns [2][10]. - The FOMC announced the end of the balance sheet reduction (QT) starting December 1 and will reinvest proceeds from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into U.S. Treasury bills [2][10]. Powell's Press Conference Insights - Jerome Powell's comments reflected a hawkish stance regarding potential rate cuts in December, highlighting significant internal disagreements within the Fed about the direction of monetary policy [3][12]. - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in job growth, attributing part of this to a decline in labor force growth, while maintaining an optimistic view on inflation, estimating core inflation to be around 2.2%-2.3% when excluding tariff impacts [3][15]. Balance Sheet Reduction and Market Liquidity - Powell emphasized that the Fed would halt balance sheet reduction when bank reserves exceed the level deemed "ample," noting rising repo rates and increased use of the standing repo facility (SRF) as indicators of liquidity pressures [4][16]. - The Fed's experience from the September 2019 liquidity crisis informs its current approach, as it seeks to avoid a repeat of that situation by monitoring liquidity conditions closely [5][18]. Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a December rate cut decreased, with a two-thirds probability now estimated based on futures markets [7][37]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 4.07% and the 2-year yield rising by 12 basis points to 3.59%, reflecting a repricing of short-term policy expectations [7][37].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in the U.S. banking system's reserves raises concerns about the Federal Reserve potentially ending its quantitative tightening (QT) measures soon [1] Group 1: Banking System Reserves - As of October 22, the banking system's reserves decreased by approximately $59 billion, reaching $2.93 trillion, the lowest level since January of this year [1] - This marks the eighth consecutive week of decline in bank reserves [1] Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Policies - Analysts indicate that the ongoing decrease in reserves is becoming a significant constraint on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction process [1] - Since the lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling in July, the Treasury has increased the issuance of government bonds to rebuild cash reserves, further tightening liquidity [1] Group 3: Liquidity Conditions - The balance of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON-RRP) tool is nearing zero, which is putting additional pressure on bank reserves and significantly tightening liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is ongoing but has slowed down, leading to liquidity in the financial system approaching a critical threshold [2][6] - Recent signs of tension in the repurchase market and increased volatility in funding rates raise concerns about potential severe liquidity shocks [6][10] Group 1: Liquidity at a Critical Point - U.S. liquidity is diminishing as the Federal Reserve continues its balance sheet reduction, with the overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) balance dropping to $5.48 billion as of October 15, down from $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 [6][10] - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) experienced a significant spike on September 15, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6][10] - The reduction in liquidity is attributed to the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA), which absorbed approximately $140 billion in liquidity during the week of September 17 [10][11] Group 2: Will a "Liquidity Crunch" Reoccur? - The likelihood of a liquidity crunch is low, as bank reserves are expected to decrease but remain above critical levels [3][22] - The next significant influx of tax revenue into the TGA is anticipated in April, which may coincide with a slowdown in Treasury issuance [3][22] - Despite the depletion of excess liquidity, SOFR may remain elevated, but conditions similar to the 2019 liquidity shock are not expected to recur [22] Group 3: When Will Balance Sheet Reduction Stop? - The balance sheet reduction process is likely to continue unless unexpected events occur, with the Federal Reserve expected to halt reductions when reserves are slightly above adequate levels [4][24] - Estimates suggest that the appropriate level for bank reserves is around $2.7 trillion, which may be reached by mid-next year if the current pace of reduction continues [4][24] - Even if a liquidity crisis occurs, the Federal Reserve has tools to provide temporary liquidity and may consider slight balance sheet expansion to support the market [26]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential pause in the reduction of U.S. Treasury securities from the balance sheet in the coming months [1] - The Treasury Department is expanding the issuance of short-term Treasury bills to support a higher Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, with a target increase from $850 billion to at least $900 billion [3] - The core principle for maintaining the TGA balance is to ensure sufficient funds to cover a week of government expenditures and maturing tradable debt [3] Group 2 - The increase in TGA balance will exert "secondary pressure" on bank reserves, as funds from the purchase of Treasury bills will move from commercial bank accounts to the TGA at the Federal Reserve [4] - Barclays strategist Samuel Earl noted that the reduction of Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve could shrink the banking system's reserves, which are currently around $3 trillion, nearing the recognized lower limit of adequacy [3][4] - The net supply of short-term Treasury bills is projected to be approximately $146 billion this month, exceeding previous market expectations by $80 billion, indicating stronger financing needs from the Treasury [4] Group 3 - The official quarterly target balance for the TGA has remained stable at $850 billion for most of the past year, but it is expected to rise to $900 billion in the upcoming borrowing forecast [4] - The upward trend in TGA balance is anticipated to persist for more than six months, suggesting ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve to halt or even expand its balance sheet [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. banking system's reserves have increased for the first time in nine weeks, surpassing $3 trillion, which is a significant factor for the Federal Reserve's decision to continue reducing its balance sheet [1] Summary by Categories - **Bank Reserves** - As of the week ending October 8, bank reserves rose by approximately $54 billion, reaching $3.034 trillion [1] - Prior to this increase, reserves had declined for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest continuous drop since July 2020 [1]

Core Points - The U.S. banking system's reserves have increased for the first time in nine weeks, surpassing $3 trillion [1] - As of the week ending October 8, bank reserves rose by approximately $54 billion, reaching $3.034 trillion [1] - Prior to this increase, reserves had been declining for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest continuous drop since July 2020 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Bank Reserves**: The increase in bank reserves is a significant indicator for the Federal Reserve's decision to continue reducing its balance sheet [1] - **Recent Trends**: The decline in reserves was influenced by the U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of debt following the raising of the debt ceiling in July, aimed at rebuilding cash balances [1] - **Liquidity Impact**: The reduction in reserves was also linked to the depletion of liquidity in other Federal Reserve liabilities, such as the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) agreements [1]