Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces nationwide decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 81.8%, which is 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 68.4%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 4.1 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of cement grinding fell by 2.3 percentage points to 40.3%, marking a new low compared to the same period in recent years, and is 10.1 and 27.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 11.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The average sales area of second-hand homes in 18 cities decreased by 4.5% month-on-month but saw a year-on-year increase of 20.3%[5] - The apparent demand for steel increased by 0.1% to approximately 842.8 million tons, but the absolute value is the lowest in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Prices - The South China Index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 4.0%[7] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 12.4%[7] - Pork prices fell by 1.1% to approximately 19.9 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 27.3%[7] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, but the absolute value remains high, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[8] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 6.0% month-on-month, respectively, with both being at near historical lows[8] - Asphalt inventory decreased by 7.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.3%[8] Liquidity - The central bank net withdrew 10,086 billion yuan through OMO in the past half month, indicating a tightening of liquidity[10] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 4,449.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 32,819.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving 74.6% of the annual target[11]

Consumption Trends - Service consumption is experiencing seasonal cooling, particularly in travel, cinema, and tourism as summer ends[6] - Retail and wholesale volumes for automobiles have decreased, while agricultural product prices have shown seasonal recovery[6] Investment Insights - As of August 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.26 trillion, with August's issuance at CNY 486.5 billion, indicating insufficient support for infrastructure work[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities showed a slight seasonal increase, but overall market remains weak, with land transaction area declining and premium rates dropping to 4.07%[17] Trade and Production - Export volumes and prices are weakening, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1% for outbound shipments[26] - Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, particularly PTA, which has dropped to its lowest level since 2021 due to production cuts[28] Inventory and Pricing - Coal, steel, and petrochemical inventories are rising, while cement inventory remains stable[32] - Consumer prices are mixed, with industrial prices generally declining; CPI growth is marginally decreasing, particularly in food and housing sectors[38] Currency and Liquidity - The RMB is appreciating rapidly, with the exchange rate against the USD falling from 7.1823 to 7.1330, influenced by central bank policies and market sentiment[42] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 5.6 basis points to 1.83%, while the one-year yield decreased slightly[39]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slight recovery in industrial production and construction activity, alongside an increase in freight volume, indicating potential improvements in economic conditions. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [5][9] - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector also shows improvement, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [17] Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity is showing signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [29] - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [29][33] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased but remain higher than the same period last year [2][41] Group 3: Demand and Freight Volume - Real estate transactions remain low, with average daily transaction area down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [53] - Freight volume has increased, with port cargo throughput and container throughput rising by 1.3 percentage points and 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [65][72] - The national migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stronger movement of people [77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively [107] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 1.0% [119][120] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 0.9%, while the metal price index also rose by 1.0% [119][126] Group 5: Export Indicators - Export indicators show potential improvement, with foreign trade port cargo volume increasing by 8.9% year-on-year [135] - Container throughput to Vietnam has surged to over 60%, while shipments to the U.S. have decreased [135] - The overall export production index has increased by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a positive outlook for July exports [138]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, construction activity, and freight volume, indicating a slight recovery in industrial production and construction, while highlighting the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and fluctuations in freight metrics [2][5][53]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [2][5]. - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points to -2.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 6%, respectively [2][17]. - The automotive sector has also experienced improvements, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points to -3.1% [2][17]. Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity has shown signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [2][29]. - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points to -0.6% [2][29]. - Despite a slight decline in asphalt operating rates, they remain higher than the same period last year, indicating overall stability in construction activity [2][29]. Group 3: Freight Volume and Demand - Real estate transactions remain low, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [2][53]. - Freight volume has seen a recovery, with port cargo throughput and container throughput increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 8% and 4.4 percentage points to 5.2%, respectively [2][65]. - The migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year to 17.4%, indicating stronger movement of people [2][77]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively, while egg prices have slightly increased by 0.1% [3][107]. - Industrial product prices have generally risen, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 1.0% [3][119]. - The energy and chemical price index rose by 0.9%, and the metal price index also increased by 1.0% [3][119].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial production remains stable, with marginal improvements in infrastructure construction and a significant increase in human mobility [1][4][25]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate shows resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [1][4]. - The chemical chain production has improved, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [1][9]. - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 11.3 percentage points to -17.9% [1][9]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to -5% and 3.8% to -6.3% respectively [1][15]. - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up 7% to 2% [1][22]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Port cargo throughput has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points to 4.2% [1][26]. - The migration index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 50.5 percentage points to 51.4% [1][29]. - New housing transactions have increased by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8%, with all city tiers showing recovery [1][25]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][36]. - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.4% [2][41].