期货日报网讯（记者 吕双梅）11月15日，2025全球期货交易者大会暨第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛、第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛颁奖大 会在西安举办。全球赛重量组第九名、长期稳定盈利奖第五名顾明喆在会上表示，当前全球正处于"繁荣、泡沫与货币贬值"阶段，过去24个月全球央行降息 312次，为黄金价格上涨提供了支撑。另外，近两年央行购金潮持续升温，全球黄金外汇储备占比已首次超过美债，中国、俄罗斯等国长期增持黄金，推动 外汇储备多元化。 "从配置角度看，黄金仍处于结构性低配状态，仅占美国银行私人客户资产管理规模的 0.5%，机构配置比例仅占2.4%，未来上涨空间充足。"他表示，黄金 多头趋势尚未终止，除非发生罕见的大级别地缘与央行再定价事件，如全球贸易摩擦进一步缓和、俄乌和谈出现突破性进展等，短期内难以实现。 顾明喆认为，黄金在降息周期前后均有明确的上涨规律，目前中美贸易磋商取得实质性进展，黄金下一波买点或出现在12月美联储降息后，同时技术上看到 底部结构，波动率回落到正常水平。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have retreated from previous highs and are currently fluctuating below 4000 points due to multiple factors, including a strong dollar and ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has reached a historic 36 days, potentially increasing market risk aversion [1] - Long-term views suggest that the U.S. debt issue remains unresolved, leading to a weakening of dollar credit, which enhances gold's monetary attributes; central banks' regular gold purchases provide official backing, creating positive feedback [1] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports the financial pricing of gold, indicating a solid logic for gold's upward trend in the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF (159934) has seen a net inflow of 4.4 billion yuan in the past month, bringing its latest scale to approximately 31.5 billion yuan, indicating good liquidity [2] - This product invests in Au99.99 spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and tracks domestic gold price performance, offering investors a convenient and low-cost tool for gold asset allocation [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that gold prices are poised for a significant increase due to rising interest rate cut expectations, escalating global trade risks, and market sentiment [1][3][6] Group 2 - The ongoing trade tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs on certain imports, have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as historical trends indicate that increased trade risks lead to capital inflows into such assets [3][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Bessent has indicated that current inflation levels do not justify high interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering rates starting in September [4][5] - Market sentiment has shifted significantly, with major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raising the probability of a rate cut in September from 32% to over 70%, indicating a strong likelihood of a rate cut event [6]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The price of gold has risen significantly from around 300 RMB to nearly 800 RMB per gram, indicating a strong bull market that many investors are now eager to join [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include potential wars, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, increasing inflation, poor global economic conditions, and central banks accumulating gold [1][3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle are highlighted as key reasons for the current gold price increase [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Despite the bullish sentiment, the overall global economy is not as strong as it appears, which may lead to a correction in gold prices [3] - The analysis of recent gold price peaks shows a pattern of higher highs and lower lows, suggesting a potential downward trend rather than a continuation of the upward movement [9] - The upcoming months, particularly from June to September, are expected to be a low period for gold prices, indicating a likely downtrend [9] Group 3: Silver's Impact on Gold - Silver has recently broken historical highs and is expected to influence gold prices slightly upward, but it is unlikely to push gold to new record highs [10] - The dynamics between silver and gold suggest that when silver experiences a downturn, gold may face larger declines [11]