先例并非没有：德国、意大利、南非近年都曾重估黄金，一次性改善政府净资产。但在美国，此举被视 作打破财政与货币防火墙的非正统操作。 美国财政部账上的黄金，第一次值1万亿美元了。 年初至今，金价暴涨45%，把8133吨金条市值推向历史新高。市场立刻联想：财长贝森特会不会顺势重 估这批沉睡四十年的资产？ 与多数国家不同，美国黄金归财政部直接所有，美联储只持有对应面值的黄金证书。若财政部按市价重 估，资产端可瞬间多出约9900亿美元，负债端只需向美联储增发等额证书，无需国会批准，也无需公开 市场操作，相当于凭空造钱。 这笔钱可一次性划入财政部一般账户（TGA），用来偿还到期国债、填补赤字，甚至设立总统心心念 念的主权财富基金。整个流程看起来像极了量化宽松，却不需要美联储买入一颗债券。 然而，特朗普2.0以行动迅速、打破常规自居，黄金重估被视作潜在闪电政策。多头正是押注这一黑天 鹅，才把金价吹向4000美元。 一句话：黄金市值已破万亿，重估按钮就在桌上，按与不按，全看白宫愿不愿为近万亿美元的一次性红 包承担长期信用成本。 前纽约联储官员MarkCabana警告，这等于同时放松财政与货币两条缰绳，可能刺激通胀、压低美元信 ...

《黄金重估的算盘》 今年黄金已涨45%，背后有地缘冲突、有美联储降息预期，也有各国央行加速增持，中国的稳健布局更 为全球资产配置添砖加瓦。对散户来说，黄金不同于股票，短期涨跌由大宗主导，真正要看的是季度甚 至年度趋势。 更微妙的是，瑞士计划将黄金精炼业务转到美国，把伦敦的大金条融化重铸成纽约喜欢的小金条，不仅 带动就业，还提升了美国黄金加工的自主性。全球"抢金大战"已打响，但产量有限，谁能多握在手里， 谁就能在未来博弈中占据主动。 黄金，从不是普通金属，而是大国之间的"终极筹码"。问题不在它涨不涨，而在于何时被推上博弈的舞 台。 （唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成稿后，经AI审阅校对） ——美国财政部的"黄金魔法"，能否一举还债，还顺便稳住全球金链？ 一觉醒来，黄金突破3800元，明天会不会直奔3900？这不是最关键的，关键是美国财政部可能动用一 招"点石成金"——重估黄金储备来缓解债务危机。 1973年黄金被定价42.22美元/盎司，美国财政部的8133吨储备只值110亿美元。但按现价算，早已超过1 万亿美元，整整高出90倍！如果真重估，这笔"纸上财富"足以覆盖今年巨额债务利息，再叠加关税收入 3000亿，账面几 ...

（美国黄金储备市值走势） 与多数国家将黄金储备存放于央行不同，美国的黄金由财政部直接持有。美联储则持有与财政部黄金储备价值相对应的黄金证书，并以此为政府 提供美元信贷。 这意味着，若财政部根据当前市价更新其黄金储备的价值，将能向其金库注入约9900亿美元资金，从而大幅减少今年发行新国债的需求。 市场人士认为，虽然此举存在法律疑问且可能被视为非正统做法，但考虑到特朗普政府的激进风格，黄金重估概率正在上升。 类似QE的"非常规"操作 重估黄金储备将直接影响美国财政部和美联储的资产负债表。具体而言，美国财政部的资产会因黄金价值重估而增加，其负债则因向美联储发行 等额的黄金证书而同步上升。 与此同时，美联储的资产负债表也会相应扩张。其资产端将增加等值的黄金证书，负债端则通过增加财政部现金账户（TGA）中的存款来平衡。 美国黄金储备市值首次突破1万亿美元，这重新点燃了市场关于美国可能重估其黄金储备的猜测。 今年以来，黄金价格累计上涨45%，美国财政部黄金储备估值史上首次突破1万亿美元，重新引发市场对美国财长贝森特可能重估这批贵金属资产 的猜测。 据报道，此举并非没有先例，德国、意大利和南非等国近几十年来都曾做出过重估其 ...

不过，美国政府资产负债表上的黄金官方价值仍固定在110亿美元出头，这一估值基于国会1973年设定的每盎司42.22美元价格。两者之间的巨大 差距意味着美国黄金储备的市场价值是账面价值的90多倍。 随着金价飙升并刷新历史新高，美国财政部持有的黄金储备市场价值已首次突破1万亿美元大关。 周一，金价一度突破每盎司3824.5美元，今年累计涨幅高达45%，推动了美国这笔全球最大黄金储备的价值攀升。涨势背后，是投资者在贸易 战、地缘政治紧张局势以及对美国潜在政府融资危机的日益担忧中寻求安全庇护。此外，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的持续资金流入和美联储 重启降息周期也为金价上涨提供了强劲动力。 | Cash held by Other the Treasury | Restricted Cash | Cash & other monetary assets International monetary assets | Gold & silver | Foreign currency | Total | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9/30/2024 $870.8 $5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the re-evaluation of gold's value in the context of rising U.S. federal debt and interest payments, which poses systemic risks to the economy [1][2] - Recent trends show that despite a significant rise in real interest rates, gold prices have increased by over 4% in the past 45 days, indicating a break from traditional pricing models [1][2] - The latest Federal Reserve report highlights the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of U.S. federal debt, particularly emphasizing the escalating burden of interest payments [1][2] Group 2 - Key indicators of debt risk include public debt as a percentage of GDP, currently near 100%, which increases repayment pressure and constrains government spending [2] - Interest payments as a percentage of GDP are expected to rise significantly over the next decade, potentially leading to more borrowing to service existing debt [2] - Concerns from Goldman Sachs regarding the long-term fiscal path being "unsustainable" could undermine confidence in sovereign debt and fiat currency systems [2] Group 3 - The notion of "gold price re-evaluation" is emerging, questioning whether current gold prices accurately reflect the inherent risks of a heavily indebted dollar system [2] - Historical context shows that during the last significant gold price re-evaluation (1970-80), U.S. macro debt levels rose from 140% to over 170%, while current levels exceed 304% [2] - Prominent investors like Stanley Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio are reassessing their gold allocations, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a vote against excessive national credit expansion [2] Group 4 - For ordinary investors, the implications are profound, emphasizing the importance of gold as a "non-debt asset" in an era of rising debt [3] - Investors are encouraged to look beyond short-term fluctuations and focus on the macroeconomic shifts driving gold prices [3] - The volatility in the gold market presents opportunities for long-term positioning, as significant adjustments often signal favorable entry points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. not utilizing its gold reserves at Fort Knox, suggesting that a revaluation of gold could potentially alleviate the $26 trillion debt crisis, while raising concerns about the actual availability of gold reserves [1][4][6]. Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, leading to a system where the dollar became the global reserve currency, resulting in persistent trade deficits and reliance on foreign investments [3]. - Countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and Japan have started selling U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a shift in foreign investment behavior [3][4]. Group 2: Current Financial Dynamics - The U.S. is increasingly relying on domestic institutions, such as the Federal Reserve and commercial banks, to purchase its debt, leading to a "fiscal internal circulation" [4]. - The cost of borrowing is rising as the U.S. government struggles to find buyers for its debt, forcing the Federal Reserve to print more money [4][6]. Group 3: Gold Valuation and Implications - The U.S. holds the largest gold reserves globally, officially recorded at 8,133.5 tons, valued at only $42.22 per ounce, while the current market price exceeds $3,000 per ounce [4][6]. - A revaluation of gold at market prices could create an additional $26 trillion in assets, significantly improving the debt-to-GDP ratio [4][6]. Group 4: Risks of Gold Revaluation - There are concerns that the gold reserves may not be as substantial as reported, leading to fears of a potential loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar if the truth were revealed [6][12]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is avoiding gold revaluation due to the risk of exposing potential discrepancies in its gold holdings [6][12]. Group 5: Shift to Cryptocurrencies - With the gold route deemed risky, the U.S. is increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and stablecoins as alternative financial instruments [8][12]. - The rise of stablecoins poses a risk to monetary sovereignty, as they are not directly controlled by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a loss of regulatory power over the broader monetary system [8][12]. Group 6: Global Implications - The article highlights the strategic importance of gold for non-U.S. countries, positioning it as a counterbalance to the dollar-centric financial system [12]. - The ongoing competition between gold and cryptocurrencies represents a significant shift in the global financial landscape, with potential long-term consequences for the U.S. dollar's dominance [12].