行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《聚焦体验与效率，即时零售和 AI 成双十 一新引擎——2025 年双十一大促跟踪点 评》 2025/10/26 《超长大促简化玩法，淘宝闪购首次参与 双十一——商贸零售行业周报（10.6- 10.10）》 2025/10/12 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 A0230525070005 lixl2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 16 日 双 11 迎收官：AI 全域赋能，即时 零售高速增长 看好 ——商贸零售行业周报（11.10-11.14） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 11 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日期间，商贸零售指 数增长 4.06%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 5.14pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 3 位。社会服 务指数增长 2.28%，相较于沪深 30 ...

IT之家附报告的品牌排名如下： 在销量方面，2025 年第三季度国内 XR 整体市场达到 16.9 万台，环比增长 17%，同比增长 57%。其中，消费级 AR 设备成为市场增长的主要驱动力，销 量达 13.0 万台，同比增长 109%。 报告称，雷鸟、乐奇（Rokid）等品牌的新品发布成为推动 AR 市场增长的主要动力，且影目、Meta、阿里夸克等品牌也纷纷跟进，相继推出新品；消费 级 VR 设备销量为 4.0 万台，环比增长 8%，Meta 低价策略维持了 VR 市场的小幅增长。 IT之家 11 月 13 日消息，研究机构 CINNO Research 今日发布报告，2025 年第三季度，中国消费级 AR / VR 眼镜市场销量达 16.9 万台，环比增长 17%， 同比增长 57%。市场增长主要得益于 AR 设备新品的持续推出、上游产业链成本优化以及 AI 技术的深度融合。 AR 设备市场，雷鸟创新稳居第一。其持续推陈出新，10 月底推出 AIR 4 和 AIR 4 PRO 新品，首次引入 HDR 显示技术，支持 AI 3D 视频功能。 乐奇（Rokid）凭借 Rokid Glasses 新品上市，销量 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue grew 2% year-over-year and was up 3% sequentially, driven by retail business acceleration and steady banking contributions [5][14] - Operating profit increased by 4% year-over-year and 19% sequentially, reaching $87 million with a 9.2% operating margin [18] - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.39, up over $1 per share year-over-year and approximately 50% sequentially [5][18] - Free cash flow nearly doubled sequentially to approximately $25 million, marking positive free cash flow for four consecutive quarters [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail segment revenue increased by 8% year-over-year, with order entry growing 40%, reflecting strong demand [5][20] - Banking segment revenue was roughly flat year-over-year but showed sequential growth, with gross margin increasing by 20 basis points year-over-year [19][20] - Product orders grew 25% year-over-year, with a backlog of approximately $920 million [4][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong growth was observed in APAC and the Middle East, expanding the install base and driving recurring service revenue [23] - North America showed steady business with a focus on teller cash recyclers, while Europe had a blockbuster year with strong orders from all major markets [51][52] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to generating $800 million in cumulative free cash flow by 2027 and achieving approximately 15% adjusted EBITDA margins [7][21] - A new $200 million share repurchase program was announced, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value [4][21] - The company is focusing on branch automation solutions and enhancing service capabilities through targeted acquisitions and technology investments [11][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about retail growth trajectory going into Q4, with expectations for a strong Q4 performance [5][21] - The company is on track to meet its full-year guidance, with a focus on maintaining a fortress balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation [21][22] - Management highlighted the importance of automation in banking as a key factor for success in the evolving landscape [8][9] Other Important Information - The company received a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global from B to B plus, validating efforts to strengthen financial performance [21] - Significant progress was made in working capital management, with improvements in days inventory outstanding (DIO) and days sales outstanding (DSO) [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact on service profitability from accelerated investments - Management expects service margins to be flat to slightly up, driven by product margins and operational expense resilience, with a $10 million investment spread between Q3 and Q4 [26][29] Question: Status of retail business in North America - Management confirmed an increase in proof of concepts globally, particularly in North America, and expressed optimism about the retail business [30][32] Question: Annual refresh orders in banking - Management confirmed a pace of about 60,000 machines annually, focusing on new placements rather than upgrades [34] Question: Gross margin expectations for Q4 - Management expects a similar run rate for margins in Q4 as seen in Q3, with improvements in both banking and retail segments [35][37] Question: Details on a small acquisition - The acquisition enhances capabilities to serve different brands of equipment in branches, expanding the addressable market [41][42] Question: Response to branch automation solutions - Management noted strong interest from both large and smaller banks in branch automation solutions, indicating a trickle-down effect from larger banks to regional and community banks [43][44]

Core Insights - The report indicates a market style shift from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation weighted stocks, reflecting a clear trend of capital migration towards more stable and lower-risk investments [2][3][10] Market Overview - On Monday, the three major indices in the A-share market showed a rebound after a dip, with significant gains in heavyweight sectors such as coal, oil, banking, and steel, contrasting with the underperformance of the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices [2][5][9] - The overall market sentiment was active, with a total trading volume of 21,071 billion, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,976.52 points, up 0.55% [6][12] Sector Performance - The cultural media sector saw substantial gains, with a year-to-date increase of 42.75% in the first half of 2023, although it experienced a 15.58% pullback in the third quarter [7] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks surged due to the announcement of the full island closure operation set to officially start on December 18, 2023 [8] Future Market Trends - The current "elephant dance" market signals a positive macroeconomic outlook, indicating a recovery in market confidence regarding economic fundamentals [3][10] - The report suggests a more balanced market style in the fourth quarter, with a focus on "technology growth," "cyclical sectors," and "stable dividend core assets" for better cost-performance ratios [3][11] - Investment strategies should focus on technology growth sectors, high-dividend defensive stocks, and cyclical styles, while being cautious of overhyped growth stocks lacking solid performance backing [11]

Core Insights - In the digital age, public opinion monitoring has evolved from a risk management tool to a core support for strategic decision-making, with 78% of companies facing million-level revenue losses due to improper handling of public sentiment by 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Performance - PR Newswire is rated as the leader in the media monitoring field, achieving a comprehensive rating of ★★★★★ due to its extensive technology and localized service, covering all channels and utilizing advanced AI for sentiment analysis [2] - Wisers, rated ★★★★☆, excels in retail sentiment monitoring with its AI-driven solutions and has been recognized as the "Best Retail AI Service Provider" for 2025, serving over 250 retail brands [3][4] - Biyi Marketing, rated ★★★★, focuses on localized and vertical services, effectively capturing niche information and responding to sensitive issues within 15 minutes, serving over 1,000 clients [5][6] - Sina Public Opinion Monitoring, under Mido Technology, is rated ★★★★ and is recognized for its compliance and security, processing 140 million data entries daily and serving over 45,000 government and enterprise clients [7] - NewRank Voice Monitoring, rated ★★★★☆, leverages AI technology for real-time monitoring and deep analysis, significantly improving risk management efficiency for major brands [8] Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The ranking is based on data from August to October 2025, evaluating brand authority, technological advancement, service adaptability, compliance, and practical effectiveness, indicating a shift towards predictive defense and scenario-based solutions in the public opinion monitoring industry [9]

Summary of the Conference Call for BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - **Global TV Sales**: In Q3 2025, global retail TV sales experienced a slight decline year-on-year, with average sizes remaining stable. Emerging market demand is strong, but sales in mainland China decreased due to diminishing effects of national subsidies. [2][5] - **LCD Market**: The LCD supply-demand relationship is expected to reach balance by 2027. LCD prices are showing differentiation, with TV panel prices slightly declining while IT panel prices remain stable. [2][5] - **OLED Market**: The second half of the year is typically a peak season for OLED, but the supply-demand ratio remains high. Low-end Remax products are growing, while high-end LTPO technology shows significant brand disparity. [2][3][5] Company Performance - **OLED Shipments**: In the first three quarters of 2025, BOE's OLED shipments reached approximately 40 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The company expects double-digit growth for the entire year. [2][8] - **Revenue Structure**: The revenue structure is as follows: TV accounts for 28%, IT for 37%, and OLED for approximately 23%, with the latter experiencing a decline due to market pressures. [2][8] - **IT Product Demand**: IT products, particularly laptops and tablets, are driving significant growth in shipments, with a notable increase in demand due to a replacement cycle following the peak in 2021. [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - **AI Collaboration**: BOE has partnered with Intel to launch AI-enabled innovative display solutions, which are expected to drive growth in laptop replacements. [6][7] - **R&D Investment**: The company maintains high R&D expenditures to lay the groundwork for future technological advancements, despite a decrease in management and sales expenses as a percentage of revenue. [13] - **LCD Minority Stake Acquisition**: BOE plans to gradually reclaim minority stakes in its LCD operations, primarily in Hefei, Wuhan, and Chengdu, to enhance net profit attributable to shareholders. [12] Market Dynamics - **Emerging Markets**: Demand is strong in regions like East Africa and Latin America, while the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan and South Korea, shows relatively weaker performance. [5] - **Price Trends**: The OLED market is facing downward pressure on low-end product prices, but high-end products are expected to maintain profitability. [10][11] - **Future Outlook**: The introduction of foldable screen products by major brands in 2026 is anticipated to drive industry recovery, alongside the adoption of LTPO technology by North American clients. [3][9] Financial Insights - **Investment Income**: The increase in investment income in Q3 was attributed to the difference between the cost of investments in joint ventures and the fair value of identifiable net assets. [27] - **LED Shipment Goals**: BOE adjusted its LED shipment target for 2025 to 160 million units, reflecting challenges due to national subsidy impacts and intense competition in the low-end market. [20] Conclusion - **Long-term Strategy**: BOE is focused on high-end product development and maintaining competitive advantages in technology and product quality, while also adapting to market changes. The company is optimistic about future growth in the OLED and LCD markets, driven by technological advancements and strategic partnerships. [22][24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.129 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.55%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.733 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 100.04% to 12.639 billion yuan [1][3]. - The increase in performance is attributed to the sustained activity in the capital markets, with significant growth in brokerage, investment banking, and credit business revenues [1]. - The company's brokerage business revenue reached 6.588 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 66.14% year-on-year, driven by enhanced market activity [2]. - The investment banking segment also showed recovery, with revenues of 1.948 billion yuan, up 43.51% year-on-year, and a significant increase in equity underwriting amounts [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net interest income of 3.27 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 151% year-on-year, with the scale of funds lent rising by 61% to 169.8 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 895.697 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 18.143 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.2% [31]. Business Segments - The asset management business faced challenges, with net income dropping by 55.35% to 1.354 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a strong international presence, with operations in markets such as the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia, enhancing its cross-border financial services capabilities [24][25]. Technology and Innovation - The "AI Zhangle" app is a significant innovation, utilizing AI to enhance user interaction and investment decision-making, which is expected to attract younger investors [18][20]. - The company has maintained a high level of IT investment, exceeding 2 billion yuan annually since 2021, supporting its technological advancements [20][22]. Future Outlook - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 0.17%, 2.76%, and 2.60%, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][30]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.8, 12.5, and 11.3, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation [3][30].

Summary of the Conference Call for Heertai (2025-10-29) Company Overview - Heertai reported a profit exceeding 600 million yuan in the first three quarters, surpassing the total profit of the previous year, indicating significant progress in high-quality development [2][4]. Key Business Segments - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Home appliances account for approximately 60% of revenue - Power tools account for about 10% - Intelligent products and automotive electronics each account for around 10% and 8% respectively - All business segments showed growth, with home appliances, automotive electronics, and intelligent products performing particularly well [2][6]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: - Total revenue reached 8.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17% - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 69.66%, with a non-recurring net profit increase of over 70% - Operating cash flow increased by 34% year-on-year [4]. Profitability and Margin Improvement - **Gross Margin**: - The gross margin improved significantly in Q3 due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures - The company aims to restore gross margin to 20% by 2019 levels, with current gross margin for controllers at 18% [9][11]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Market Focus**: - The home appliance business primarily targets overseas markets, with growth rates in international markets outpacing domestic ones - Over 50% of revenue comes from overseas clients, including major global companies [12][15]. Technological Advancements - **AI Integration**: - AI technology has been increasingly applied in home appliances since 2014, enhancing product value and gross margins through personalized services [13]. Client Relationships - **Major Clients**: - Heertai has become a leading supplier for major clients such as Electrolux (20% share), Bosch (17-18%), and others, indicating a strong market position [14]. Automotive Electronics Segment - **Product Offerings**: - Key products include HOD sunroofs and engine control systems, with clients like BYD and NIO - Future focus will be on increasing R&D investment in areas like driver monitoring systems and thermal management systems [5][16][17]. New Projects and Growth Potential - **Emerging Products**: - New projects such as KTP coffee machines are expected to generate nearly 200 million yuan in sales, with significant growth in other products like seabuckthorn paste [8]. - **Intelligent Products**: - The intelligent product segment is projected to grow at an annual rate of 20-30% [22]. Industry Outlook - **Market Growth**: - The satellite launch sector is expected to grow at an annual rate of 30-40%, indicating a positive outlook for related technology companies [21]. Conclusion - Heertai's strong financial performance, focus on overseas markets, and commitment to technological innovation position the company well for future growth and profitability in the competitive landscape of home appliances and automotive electronics.

Summary of the Conference Call for Weijie Innovation Company Overview - **Company**: Weijie Innovation - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on WiFi and RF power amplifier modules Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 18.03 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss, with a year-on-year increase and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 107.4% [2][3] - **Revenue**: Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 573 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10% [3] - **Gross Margin**: The overall gross margin improved to 27.86%, an increase of 6.48 percentage points year-on-year [3] - **Cash Flow**: As of September 2025, cash and cash equivalents amounted to 2.74 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [8] WiFi Product Line Development - **WiFi 7 Adoption**: WiFi 7 has surpassed WiFi 6 in market share, with applications in mobile phones (50%), routers (30%), and drones (20%) [2][5] - **Future Growth**: WiFi 7 is expected to maintain growth momentum over the next three years, particularly in 2026-2027 [2][5] Strategies for Maintaining High Gross Margins - **Product Strength**: The company focuses on product quality and performance, with successful launches in flagship devices [6] - **Client Base Expansion**: Increased market share among leading router clients and customized development for emerging applications [6] Challenges and Strategic Responses - **Cellular Business Challenges**: The company faces challenges in the cellular business due to stagnant mobile phone sales and declining RF module prices [7] - **Future Product Development**: Plans to launch next-generation LPMI products by 2027, with ongoing collaborations with major domestic clients [7] Inventory and Cash Management - **Inventory Management**: Inventory value decreased by 23.77% year-on-year, with a significant reduction in inventory turnover days [8][9] - **Cash Flow Improvement**: Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2025 was 662 million yuan, a substantial increase from the previous year [8] RF Power Amplifier Module Performance - **Revenue Contribution**: RF power amplifier module revenue reached 1.245 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with 5G PA modules contributing 598 million yuan [10] - **Product Launches**: New products like the Face 7LE Plus module have been successfully launched and are in mass production [10] AI Technology Integration - **Future Requirements**: The integration of AI technology in mobile devices is driving the need for higher performance and integration in RF front-end chips [11] Market Outlook - **Growth Expectations**: The company is optimistic about moderate growth in 2026, driven by new product launches and increased market share in high-end segments [12] - **Car-Grade Product Line**: The car-grade product line is expected to see over 100% annual growth, with successful collaborations with MediaTek [13] Emerging Market Applications - **WiFi in Robotics**: WiFi technology is increasingly being adopted in robotics and other emerging markets, with ongoing custom development projects [14] Revenue Structure and Future Projections - **Revenue Composition**: The revenue structure is currently dominated by the transmission end, with expectations for growth in WiFi and automotive sectors [15] - **Market Potential**: The WiFi market is projected to grow significantly, especially with the adoption of WiFi 7 in lower-priced devices [22] Samsung Partnership - **Revenue Contribution**: Samsung has been a significant revenue contributor since September 2024, with expectations for new product introductions in 2026 [25][26] Overall Margin Expectations - **Margin Outlook**: The company anticipates an overall improvement in gross margins due to the increasing share of high-margin products [27] Competitive Landscape - **Domestic Competition**: While facing competition from domestic manufacturers, the company maintains a leading position in providing comprehensive solutions in the automotive sector [28] Client Inventory and Market Trends - **Client Inventory Levels**: Client inventory levels are normal, with ongoing efforts to reduce excess stock impacting overall market dynamics [29]

Summary of the Conference Call for 理邦仪器 (Ribang Instrument) Company Overview - **Company**: 理邦仪器 (Ribang Instrument) - **Industry**: Medical Equipment Key Financial Performance - **Q3 2025 Revenue**: 530 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 8% [2][5] - **Net Profit**: 100 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 118% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 14% [2][5] - **Domestic Market Revenue**: 176 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][5] - **International Market Revenue**: 357 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15% [2][5] - **Patient Monitoring Line**: Achieved growth in both domestic and international markets [3][7] Growth Drivers - **Product Accumulation**: Strong foundation in product lines and enhanced competitiveness through AI and internet technology [6] - **International Market Investment**: Continuous investment since 2002 has yielded significant results, maintaining resilience despite uncertain trade environments [6] - **Manufacturing Capability**: Expansion of the U.S. base and FDA certification to enhance overseas sales capabilities [6][14] - **Internal Management**: Efficiency improvements and cost control through AI technology [6][13] Market Dynamics - **Domestic Demand**: Decrease in domestic demand in the maternal and child health sector, but significant growth in international markets [7] - **International Revenue Proportion**: Expected to be around 65% for 2025, with domestic revenue at approximately 35% [10] Future Outlook - **2026 Projections**: Anticipated continued double-digit growth in international markets, contingent on the international trade environment [10][20] - **Product Iteration and Localization**: Plans to enhance product competitiveness and optimize internal management [8] - **European Market Expansion**: Establishment of subsidiaries in France and Germany, with positive performance in the UK [9] Operational Insights - **Contract Liabilities**: Increased by 50% to over 10 million CNY, indicating strong operational status and competitive capability [4][12] - **Gross Margin**: Stable at 55%-60%, with an upward trend expected as new products are launched [4][19] - **Inventory Management**: Effective inventory management practices in manufacturing and sales, maintaining reasonable stock levels [18] Product Development - **A500 Product Launch**: New wet blood gas analysis device launched in 2025, with approximately 300 units sold and 400,000 tests conducted [17] - **Other Product Lines**: Continued growth in related devices, with strong market competitiveness [17] Conclusion - **Overall Performance**: The company has demonstrated robust growth in a challenging market environment, with a strong focus on international expansion and product innovation [3][20]