[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月08日 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -17% -9% 0% 8% 17% 25% 34% 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.卫星化学（002648）：美国恢复对 华乙烷出口，看好公司稀缺性、成长 性——公司简评报告 2.小米、荣耀等新产品频出，关注新 材料国产化进程——基础化工行业 周报（2025/6/23-2025/6/29） 3.供给优化的弹性β，需求驱动的优 质α——基础化工2025中期投资策 略 [Table_NewTitle 反内卷政策持续发力， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [7][10]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices of potassium fertilizer and glyphosate, with supply constraints for the insecticide "Kangkuan" [2][5]. - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by tight supply and demand, with a significant reliance on imports, which is projected to increase due to food security concerns [2][27]. - The phosphoric chemical sector is anticipated to maintain high price levels due to the scarcity of phosphate rock resources and increasing demand from new applications [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Global potassium fertilizer prices are expected to recover as demand increases, with China being the largest consumer and heavily reliant on imports [2][27]. - Domestic production of potassium chloride is projected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a historical high [27]. - The domestic potassium chloride price is forecasted to rise by approximately 100 yuan/ton in July due to increased port prices [2][45]. Phosphoric Chemicals - The price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with a tight supply-demand balance [3][51]. - As of June 30, 2025, the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan it is 970 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [3][51]. - The export policy for phosphoric fertilizers emphasizes domestic priority, with reduced export quotas expected to alleviate downward pressure in the domestic market [4]. Pesticides - The supply of "Kangkuan" has been unexpectedly restricted, leading to a potential price increase for the product [5]. - Glyphosate prices have risen by 1,300 yuan/ton in June, driven by increased demand from South America as planting areas for soybeans and corn expand [5][9]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the glyphosate sector, such as "Xingfa Group," which has a significant production capacity [9]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends "Yaji International" for potassium fertilizer, projecting production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][49]. - For phosphoric chemicals, "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group" are highlighted as key players due to their rich phosphate reserves [6]. - In the pesticide sector, "Xingfa Group" is recommended for its leading position in glyphosate production [9].

本周化工市场综述 本周市场有所上行，其中申万化工指数上涨 2.61%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.73%。标的方面，涨价品种表现亮眼， 比如：康宽、硝化棉、SAF。基础化工行业边际变化，一是部分化工品价格上涨，比如：本周康宽报价提高至 30 万 元/吨，再比如：SAF 价格大幅跳升；二是本周印度钾肥大合同价格落地，价格为 349 美元/吨，该价格或为后续中国 钾肥大合同价格的参考锚；三是巴斯夫宣布位于德国施瓦茨海德的 Black Mass 工厂已成功投入商业运营，该工厂年 处理能力高达 1.5 万吨报废锂离子电池和生产废料；四是新疆煤化工产业继续推进，据煤化工信息网，新疆中能万 源化工有限公司煤基新材料绿色低碳循环一体化建设项目环境影响评价首次公示；五是可乐丽株式会社宣布，决定 停止旗下制造子公司 Kuraray Saijo Co., Ltd.的聚酯树脂及聚酯长丝的生产。关税方面，美国特朗普政府请求联邦 上诉法院，阻止此前哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院裁定其关税政策"违法"的命令，之后需要关注美国最高法院就特 朗普政府 1.4 万亿美元全球关税案裁决情况。油价方面，OPEC+连续第三次大幅增产，同意 7 月将石油产 ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（5/26-5/30）： 三代制冷剂价格上涨，友道化学爆炸提升农药行业关注度 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/6/3 24/8/14 24/10/25 25/1/5 25/3/18 25/5/29 相关研究报告 <<化工周报（5/19-5/25）：制冷剂产 品毛利提升，H 酸带动活性染料价格 上涨 >>--2025-05-26 << 化 工 新 材 料 周 报 （ 20250519- 20250525）：制冷剂价格维持高位，炭 黑、溴素价格反弹>>--2025-05-25 <<化工周报（5/12-5/18）：涤纶长丝 价格大幅上涨，孟山都事件提升草甘 膦关注度>>--2025-05-20 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 制冷剂产品毛利持续扩大。受夏季高温天气 ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 行业周报 看好/维持 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/6/3 24/8/14 24/10/25 25/1/5 25/3/18 25/5/29 相关研究报告 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（5/26-5/30）： 三代制冷剂价格上涨，友道化学爆炸提升农药行业关注度 ◼ 走势比较 <<化工周报（5/19-5/25）：制冷剂产 品毛利提升，H 酸带动活性染料价格 上涨 >>--2025-05-26 << 化 工 新 材 料 周 报 （ 20250519- 20250525）：制冷剂价格维持高位，炭 黑、溴素价格反弹>>--2025-05-25 <<化工周报（5/12-5/18）：涤纶长丝 价格大幅上涨，孟山都事件提升草甘 膦关注度>>--2025-05-20 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 制冷剂产品毛利持续扩大。受夏季高温天气 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 爆炸事件导致康宽及 K 胺供需趋 紧，有望推动农药行业景气加速修 复，硝化棉价格或继续上行 看好 ——《化工周报 25/05/26-25/05/30》 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230124070001 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项 ...