| | | | V V & SUIL FUIURES | | 2026年01月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | なな☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约大幅减仓,价格下跌。国产大豆本周三中储粮举行双向竞价专场,计划竞价拍卖数量3.3万 吨，全部成交，成交低价为3950元/吨，成交均价为3950元/吨,溢价为零。溢价程度不如前期表现。持续关注 政策端 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆近期政策端竞价销售的表现为出高溢价、高成交率的特点,对价格有一定的引导。现货端国产大豆市 场呈现优质优价的特点，供应端基层粮源偏紧，价格上涨之后也呈现对需求积极性的抑制。短期持续关注国产 大豆政策和现货市场的表现。 【 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Rating**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, and Live Hogs are rated as "★★★" [1] - **Neutral Rating**: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil are rated as "★☆☆" [1] - **Sell Rating**: Eggs are rated as "★☆☆" [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It offers insights into their current market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The spot price of domestic soybeans showed an upward trend last week. Policy - based auction sales had high premiums and high transaction rates. The futures contract saw profit - taking at high positions. Supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and the market features high - quality products commanding high prices. However, price increases have dampened demand. Policy is increasing supply. Short - term focus should be on policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the USDA's January supply - demand report. The upside space for US soybeans is limited, and South American weather is favorable, with a 68% probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1. If South American weather remains stable, soybean meal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate weakly [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysia's January MPOB report showed a slight decline in production and improved demand, but inventory increased to the second - highest level since 2007. After the report, palm oil prices rose due to the game between Malaysia's weak supply - demand situation and Indonesia's policy of raising export taxes and confiscating illegal plantations [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus this week is on the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. The market expects Sino - Canadian relations to ease, which may put pressure on rapeseed products. If relations do not improve, prices may rebound due to low domestic inventories. As of January 9, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased to 60,000 tons [6] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise, with the main contract C20603 up 1.19%. Northeast spot prices were stable with an upward bias, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised purchase prices. Overall inventory is low, and the selling progress is fast. The short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely [7] Live Hogs - The live hog market remained volatile. Prices of live hogs and piglets rebounded, and industry profits approached the break - even point. The reduction of sows slowed down. Second - fattening is still taking place, supporting short - term prices. However, the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is high, and the upside space is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom in H1 next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures market declined slightly on Monday with an increase of 25,000 lots in open interest. Spot prices strengthened after New Year's Day. Low chick replenishment from August to December will lead to a decline in laying hens in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand, egg prices are expected to rise [9]

| VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 菜粕 | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 宏观流动性偏好的背景下,大宗商品贵金属有色金属等品种表现更为强势,后续关注对农产品的影响力度。国 产大豆近期基本面偏强的背景下,也受到宏观的提振,近期的大豆竞价拍卖表现出来了高溢价和高成交率。国 产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调， ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国内大豆表现偏强,政策端竞价拍卖显示出溢价成交,且成交率高。国产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调。进 口大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期,目前南美天气风险偏低,预计供应端的风险仍然偏低。国 内大豆进口成本下跌,盘面压榨毛利润表现较好。短期持续关注国产大 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Upward Trend (Red Stars)**: None - **Downward Trend (Green Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Low Operability (One Star)**: Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - **Bearish with Low Operability (One Star)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars)**: All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean (★★★), indicating a clear upward trend and relatively good investment opportunities [1] - **Moderate Positive**: Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal (★★☆), suggesting a relatively clear upward - trending judgment and an ongoing market rally [1] - **Weak Positive**: Rapeseed Oil, Corn (★☆☆), showing a driving force for upward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Weak Negative**: Eggs (★☆☆), with a driving force for downward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Live Pigs (★★★), indicating a clear downward trend and relatively good short - selling opportunities (implied) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trends of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy. Different products have different outlooks, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to be in a volatile state [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Product Category Soybean - After a brief gap, the soybean market rebounded, and the contract was being rolled over. The auction of 21,000 tons of soybeans by Sinograin had a turnover of 13,000 tons at a base price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4027 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton, providing support to the price [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved recently, with a 68% probability that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean futures have fallen back to the previous low - range, and new - season US soybean sales are the lowest in the same period of the past five years. In China, last week, the inventory of imported soybeans in oil mills increased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The price of soybean meal will follow the fluctuations of US soybeans and wait for changes in South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil reduced their positions, and prices rebounded from the low level, presumably due to short - covering by bears. Malaysian high - frequency data shows that palm oil exports have improved month - on - month, while production has declined month - on - month, alleviating the bearish atmosphere. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and the short - term weather risk in South American production areas is low [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market has rebounded recently. After the continuous decline in futures prices, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to the marginal positive factors in supply and demand. Coastal oil mills in China maintain zero inventory of rapeseed products, and the restart of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade is difficult to predict. In the medium term, with a global oversupply of rapeseed, rapeseed prices are under pressure, and the price bottoming process may be long. The trading strategy for rapeseed products has changed from bearish to short - term wait - and - see [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and northern ports remain weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality and high - priced corn. Corn procurement enthusiasm in North China has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. After the short - term supply - demand imbalance is alleviated, the enthusiasm of upstream sellers is on the rise, while downstream procurement shows no significant increase. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - After the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume dropped rapidly, and the weekend spot price of live pigs was significantly reduced. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20% - 30%. It is expected that there will be another round of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide short - term support for the current pig price. In the medium to long term, the pig cycle bottom usually shows a double - bottom ("W") pattern, and the low price in October is likely the first bottom. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year under the pressure of supply and the off - season of demand. The main 03 contract is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg spot price is in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an oversupply situation. The February contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the industry's inventory is decreasing month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and combined with the off - season demand, the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year are expected to be relatively strong as the supply continues to decline month - on - month and demand returns to normal. An egg reverse spread strategy can be considered, such as 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spreads. The high - premium contracts for the peak season next year are not suitable for investment currently [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜粕: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 菜油: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 鸡蛋: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] Report's Core View - 农产品各品种走势分化，需关注各品种供需、政策、天气等因素变化，部分品种短期面临压力，部分品种策略上有偏空倾向 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 豆一主力合约跳空下跌后盘整且移仓，本周四中储粮购销双向指卖底价3900元/吨，全部成交但成交价格较上次跌130元/吨，下周一计划竞价拍卖2.1万吨，短期供应压力环比增加，本周五进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格均下滑，需关注政策端表现 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 今日进口大豆拍卖成交比例32.66%，成交均价3750.83元/吨，南美天气好转，拉尼娜明年一季度转ENSO中性概率68%，交易逻辑重回美豆出口担忧和南美丰产预期，美豆销售量近5年同期最低，期货价格跌回前期底部，豆粕价格追随美豆震荡，等待南美天气变化 [3] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格下滑，海外美豆油和马棕油疲弱，全球菜籽供需宽松带动豆棕油走弱，国内油脂延续疲弱，进口大豆拍卖频率提升带来短期供应压力，CBOT大豆市场忧虑美豆出口，中期南美天气是矛盾点，海外棕榈油马来西亚库存压力高，需谨慎后续产量降幅低于往年拉长高库存周期，短期注意油脂供需面压力 [4] 菜粕&菜油 - 菜系延续下跌，市场对中加关系预期转暖，全球菜籽供需宽松，加拿大菜籽出口多元化推进慢，期价下沉，澳大利亚菜籽将压榨，市场对放开商业购买有预期，菜系焦点在进口端，关注政策变数，策略偏空 [6] 玉米 - 东北及北港玉米现货价格下行，东北农户惜售减弱，下游对高价粮观望，华北采购积极性降温，阶段性供需错配缓解，关注东北售粮进度和拍卖情况，短期大连玉米期货03合约高位震荡偏弱 [7] 生猪 - 生猪期货小幅反弹，现货冬至备货结束价格回落，从能繁母猪存栏推算春节后出栏处高峰，需求为淡季，预计春节后猪价二次探底，03、05合约期价偏空，春节前关注供应端出栏和去库情况 [8] 鸡蛋 - 春节后2、3、4月合约受打压，2月合约创新低，资金增仓超2万手，市场忧虑高存栏和需求淡季对价格施压，中长期基本面改善，当前处于牛熊转折期，后期存栏有望下降，盘面关注节奏和预期差 [9]

Group 1 - The domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets have experienced significant dynamics recently, particularly in soybean and rapeseed meal and oil sectors [1] - Canadian canola seed exports sharply decreased by 72.1% in the week of July 6, dropping from 173,500 tons to 48,400 tons [1] - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that approximately 9% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 8, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's CONAB forecasts a soybean production of 169.4879 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 21.766 million tons year-on-year [1] - The USDA reported that net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/25 season increased to 503,000 tons, with cumulative sales reaching 50.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.62 million tons [1] - The U.S. imposing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products will raise farm costs, impact the soybean supply chain, and pose risks to international markets [1] Group 3 - In the palm oil sector, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.52% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production fell to 1,692,310 tons in June, a month-on-month decline of 4.48%, marking the first decrease in four months [1] - Palm oil inventories in Malaysia rose to 2,030,580 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.41%, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The probability of ENSO neutrality in the summer of 2025 is projected at 74%, which may impact agricultural production positively or present new challenges [1] Group 1: Agricultural Impact - A 74% probability of ENSO neutrality suggests a favorable environment for crop yields, potentially leading to increased agricultural output [1] - The anticipated neutral conditions may also introduce uncertainties that could affect farming practices and crop management strategies [1]