| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | 甘女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力合约跳空下跌之后盘整,盘面也在进行移仓。本周四中储粮购销双向指卖底价3900元/吨,溢价0元, 均价3900元/吨，全部成交，不过成交价格明显比上一次成交下跌130元/吨。下周一中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆 2.1万吨，短期市场供应压力环比增加。本周五进口大豆指卖55万吨，成交了17.9万吨，成交 ...

Group 1 - The domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets have experienced significant dynamics recently, particularly in soybean and rapeseed meal and oil sectors [1] - Canadian canola seed exports sharply decreased by 72.1% in the week of July 6, dropping from 173,500 tons to 48,400 tons [1] - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that approximately 9% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 8, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's CONAB forecasts a soybean production of 169.4879 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 21.766 million tons year-on-year [1] - The USDA reported that net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/25 season increased to 503,000 tons, with cumulative sales reaching 50.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.62 million tons [1] - The U.S. imposing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products will raise farm costs, impact the soybean supply chain, and pose risks to international markets [1] Group 3 - In the palm oil sector, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.52% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production fell to 1,692,310 tons in June, a month-on-month decline of 4.48%, marking the first decrease in four months [1] - Palm oil inventories in Malaysia rose to 2,030,580 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.41%, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The probability of ENSO neutrality in the summer of 2025 is projected at 74%, which may impact agricultural production positively or present new challenges [1] Group 1: Agricultural Impact - A 74% probability of ENSO neutrality suggests a favorable environment for crop yields, potentially leading to increased agricultural output [1] - The anticipated neutral conditions may also introduce uncertainties that could affect farming practices and crop management strategies [1]