1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean balance sheet for the 25/26 season is loose, with Brazil's record - high production and the highest - ever global soybean ending stocks. Future focus is on Brazil's export progress and Argentina's production adjustment [52]. - For the 25/26 US balance sheet, demand, especially export demand, is the key. Attention should be paid to whether China will increase its purchase of US soybeans during Trump's visit to China in mid - May [52]. - In the 26/27 US season, farmers are likely to expand soybean planting due to better planting returns and rising fertilizer prices. El Niño during the growing season may lead to high yields. First, focus on the planting area on March 31, then on the weather and crop growth in US soybean - producing areas [52]. - If there are no major market - moving factors during the US soybean growing season, the far - month futures price of soybean meal may remain in a low - level oscillation. In April, there are still factors to be watched, and in May, the domestic market will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period with the weakest basis for soybean meal [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Balance Sheet - **25/26 Season**: The US biofuel policy is in line with expectations, but export performance is weak. The focus is on China's purchase of US soybeans [2]. - **26/27 Season**: Spring sowing is about to start, and the market's focus is shifting to new crops. The soybean - to - corn price ratio in February is favorable for increasing soybean planting area, and the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates an increase of 3.9 million acres to 85 million acres. Analysts expect 85.55 million acres, but the actual situation may be affected by the Middle - East conflict [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The report provides detailed data on planting area, harvest area, yield, inventory, and demand from 2021/22 to 2026/27, showing changes in the US soybean supply - demand balance [3]. - **Pressing Demand**: Since February, CBOT soybean oil has been rising, and the domestic US soybean spot crushing margin has reached near - record highs. NOPA members' cumulative soybean crushing from September 2025 to February 2026 increased by 12.25% year - on - year, and the USDA predicts a 5.3% increase in 25/26 [9]. - **Export Situation**: As of March 19, the cumulative export orders for the 25/26 season decreased by 18.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative export shipments decreased by 27.1%. Orders and shipments to China decreased significantly. China's actual purchase of US soybeans has not increased as expected, and the competitiveness of US soybeans is weak during the Brazilian soybean harvest and export period [13]. South American Situation - **Brazil**: As of March 28, the harvest was 74.3% complete, behind last year but ahead of the five - year average. ANEC predicts March exports to exceed 1.6 billion tons [32]. - **Argentina**: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the USDA maintain their production estimates at 48.5 million tons and 48 million tons respectively [32]. - **Global Impact**: With South American bumper harvests, the global soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are at a record high, and the balance sheet is loose. If the US increases planting area and achieves high yields in 2026, international soybean prices are unlikely to rise significantly [32]. China's Situation - **Import Cost**: After the Middle - East conflict, shipping costs increased, driving up the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans. Although shipping costs have recently declined, they may remain high, providing some support for soybean meal futures prices [35]. - **Import Supply**: In January and February, China imported 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons of soybeans respectively. Forecasts for April - June arrivals are 7.93 million, 11.5 million, and 11 million tons. Due to strict inspection and quarantine of Brazilian soybeans, low seasonal arrivals, and oil - mill shutdown plans, soybean meal spot prices, the May contract, and the May - September spread strengthened, but then declined after the relaxation of quarantine standards [38][42]. - **Demand**: The slow reduction of pig production capacity ensures soybean meal feed demand. The relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing have increased rapeseed meal inventory, reducing the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal compared to rapeseed meal. Feed enterprises stocked up in advance, and the apparent demand for soybean meal in the first quarter of 2026 increased by about 11.3% year - on - year [46]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the oil - mill soybean inventory decreased to 4.82 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory increased to 676,800 tons. The sum of soybean - converted meal and soybean meal inventory is at a record high for the same period [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different trends and requiring continuous attention to various factors such as policies, weather, and market supply and demand [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans significantly reduced positions and prices declined. The bid - auction of 33,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGS on Wednesday this week was fully sold at a low - price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average price of 3950 yuan/ton, with zero premium. It is necessary to continuously follow the guidance from the policy and spot ends [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - U.S. soybeans are oscillating strongly at the bottom. The recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar is relatively favorable for U.S. soybean exports. However, the weather in South America has continuously improved, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 75%. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic, and U.S. soybeans continue the bottom - oscillating trend. It is necessary to follow the specific export situation of U.S. soybeans and the continuous impact of La Nina weather in South America [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesia revoked the operating licenses of some plantation - related enterprises on Tuesday, increasing the influence and assessment difficulty of policies on palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil short - term high - frequency data shows an increase in exports and a decrease in production, which is beneficial to the improvement of its supply - demand structure. The RIN market price of U.S. soybean oil is still strong, and if it continues to strengthen, it will drive up U.S. soybean oil. The overall view on soybean and palm oil is range - bound [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures fluctuated in a narrow range today, and the external Canadian rapeseed also fluctuated around 640 Canadian dollars/ton. The futures markets in China and Canada have fully digested the improvement of economic and trade relations. It is necessary to pay attention to the official announcement of tariff adjustments for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil. The domestic inventory of rapeseed downstream is at a low level, and the near - term supply is expected to be tight. Rapeseed meal demand is weak. It is expected that rapeseed products will fluctuate in a range - bound manner [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China are slightly stronger. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises this morning increased significantly compared with yesterday, and some enterprises lowered their purchase prices. The increase in state and local reserve auctions may gradually form pressure. This year's corn supply is relatively sufficient. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.6 Live Hogs - Live hog futures have fallen for three consecutive days. The spot price has significantly corrected today, and the decline in northern provinces with large previous increases has also expanded. The sharp decline in the live hog futures market since Monday this week may mark the end of the recent phased rebound. It is expected that there will still be a low point in hog prices in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - Egg futures are oscillating. The spot price is mostly stable today, with an increase in Hebei. In the short term, the futures and spot prices of eggs have been adjusted. In the long - term, the industry's fundamentals are gradually improving, and the inventory of laying hens is in a downward trend. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Palm Oil, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analysis for various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It analyzes the market trends, supply and demand, and policy factors of each product and provides corresponding investment strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Product Soybean - Policy - end auction sales show high premiums and high transaction rates, guiding prices. The spot market features high - quality products at high prices, with tight supply at the grass - roots level. Price increases suppress demand. Short - term focus on policy and spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather is improving, with a 75% probability of La Nina turning ENSO neutral in Q1. South American high - yield expectations are back. US soybean exports are strengthening, with 2.06 million tons of net sales in the week ending January 8, up 54% from the four - week average. China's major oil mills are expected to crush about 8 million tons of soybeans in January. Monitor US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US biofuel policy is more certain, with expected increased demand in the 26/27 market year. US soybean and soybean oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. Palm oil in Malaysia faces short - term high - inventory pressure. Long - term supply constraints need careful observation. Overall, a range - bound view for soybean and palm oil [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - China - Canada trade arrangements may lead to a reduction in tariffs on Canadian rapeseed. Under 15% import tariffs, Canadian rapeseed has good profit margins. If the import policy improves, it may drive purchases. A short - term bearish view on rapeseed products [6]. Corn - Snow in the Northeast boosts bullish sentiment, with difficult grain transportation. Spot prices in the Northeast and North Port are strong. Mid - and downstream inventories are low. After New Year's Day, state and local reserve auctions increase, creating pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live pig futures changed. Weekend price increases due to snow and second - round fattening were reversed by short - selling. In 2025, pig slaughter and pork production increased year - on - year. The sow inventory decreased, and pig prices are expected to hit a low in H1 2026 [8]. Eggs - After New Year's Day, egg spot prices strengthened due to reduced supply and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The futures market followed the spot market. On Monday, the futures fell, possibly indicating the end of the pre - holiday rally. In the long - term, the in - production hen inventory is expected to decline, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Rating**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, and Live Hogs are rated as "★★★" [1] - **Neutral Rating**: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil are rated as "★☆☆" [1] - **Sell Rating**: Eggs are rated as "★☆☆" [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It offers insights into their current market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The spot price of domestic soybeans showed an upward trend last week. Policy - based auction sales had high premiums and high transaction rates. The futures contract saw profit - taking at high positions. Supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and the market features high - quality products commanding high prices. However, price increases have dampened demand. Policy is increasing supply. Short - term focus should be on policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the USDA's January supply - demand report. The upside space for US soybeans is limited, and South American weather is favorable, with a 68% probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1. If South American weather remains stable, soybean meal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate weakly [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysia's January MPOB report showed a slight decline in production and improved demand, but inventory increased to the second - highest level since 2007. After the report, palm oil prices rose due to the game between Malaysia's weak supply - demand situation and Indonesia's policy of raising export taxes and confiscating illegal plantations [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus this week is on the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. The market expects Sino - Canadian relations to ease, which may put pressure on rapeseed products. If relations do not improve, prices may rebound due to low domestic inventories. As of January 9, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased to 60,000 tons [6] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise, with the main contract C20603 up 1.19%. Northeast spot prices were stable with an upward bias, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised purchase prices. Overall inventory is low, and the selling progress is fast. The short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely [7] Live Hogs - The live hog market remained volatile. Prices of live hogs and piglets rebounded, and industry profits approached the break - even point. The reduction of sows slowed down. Second - fattening is still taking place, supporting short - term prices. However, the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is high, and the upside space is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom in H1 next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures market declined slightly on Monday with an increase of 25,000 lots in open interest. Spot prices strengthened after New Year's Day. Low chick replenishment from August to December will lead to a decline in laying hens in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand, egg prices are expected to rise [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "なな女" is given [1] - Doupo: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "な女女" is given [1] - Douyou: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "ななな" is given [1] - Palm Oil: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "ななな" is given [1] - Caipo: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "★☆☆" is given [1] - Caiyou: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "★☆☆" is given [1] - Corn: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "☆☆☆" is given [1] - Pig: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "ななな" is given [1] - Egg: Not explicitly stated, but the rating symbol "★☆☆" is given [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of macro - liquidity preference, commodities, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals are stronger, and the impact on agricultural products should be followed [2][4] - The fundamentals of domestic soybeans are strong recently, and they are also boosted by the macro environment. The soybean auction shows high premiums and high transaction rates. The purchase price of domestic soybean spot has increased [2] - The market expects the USDA report to maintain the US soybean production forecast at 4.253 billion bushels and the yield at 53.0 bushels per acre, with the global soybean production possibly decreasing by 1.1% year - on - year [3] - The prices of Doupo will follow the US soybeans to oscillate at the bottom in the near term, waiting for possible weather changes in South America [3] - The macro environment has an impact on Douyou and palm oil. Douyou performs slightly better than palm oil. There is a risk of continued inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil [4] - There is a differentiation within the rapeseed products. The price of Caipo has increased, while Caiyou is the only falling variety in the oilseed sector. The inventory of rapeseed, Caipo, and Caiyou is decreasing [6] - The relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, which is beneficial to the import prospects of rapeseed products. In the short term, rapeseed products will maintain a weak bottom - oscillating trend [6] - Dalian corn futures have increased in positions and prices. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. In the short term, Dalian corn futures will oscillate [7] - The hog futures are oscillating, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the upside space of the futures is limited. In the medium - long term, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing of hog prices [8] - The near - month egg contracts are slightly stronger, and the contracts after August are under pressure. The egg production is expected to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the futures contracts in the first half of 2026 [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are boosted by the macro environment, with high - premium and high - transaction - rate auctions. The purchase price of domestic soybean spot has increased. In mid - January, Jilin Province will conduct a soybean auction. The new - season South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the supply - side risk is low [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The market expects the USDA report to maintain the US soybean production forecast at 4.253 billion bushels and the yield at 53.0 bushels per acre, with the global soybean production possibly decreasing by 1.1% year - on - year. South American weather is good, and the probability of ENSO neutrality in the first quarter is 68%. The price of Doupo will follow the US soybeans to oscillate at the bottom in the near term, waiting for possible weather changes in South America [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - In the context of macro - liquidity preference, the macro environment has an impact on Douyou and palm oil. Douyou performs slightly better than palm oil. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in December, and exports are sluggish. There is a risk of continued inventory accumulation [4] Caipo & Caiyou - There is a differentiation within the rapeseed products. The price of Caipo has increased, while Caiyou is the only falling variety in the oilseed sector. The inventory of rapeseed, Caipo, and Caiyou is decreasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister in mid - January is attracting attention. The relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, which is beneficial to the import prospects of rapeseed products. In the short term, rapeseed products will maintain a weak bottom - oscillating trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures have increased in positions and prices. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning is small. In the short term, Dalian corn futures will oscillate [7] Pigs - The hog futures are oscillating, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The data on the number of sows varies. The price difference between fat and lean pigs is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. The supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the upside space of the futures is limited. In the medium - long term, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing of hog prices [8] Eggs - The near - month egg contracts are slightly stronger, and the contracts after August are under pressure. The egg production is expected to decline in the first half of 2026 due to the significant decline in chick replenishment since the second half of 2025. It is recommended to go long on the futures contracts in the first half of 2026 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No. 1: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: Not provided - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by domestic policies, spot prices, and overseas supply expectations. The soybean meal price will follow the bottom - level oscillation of US soybeans. The palm and soybean oil markets face supply and inventory pressures. The rapeseed market is influenced by import uncertainties. The corn market is affected by sales progress and auctions. The live pig market has supply pressure before the Spring Festival and may have a second bottom in the first half of next year. The egg market has a decreasing hen inventory in the first half of next year [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Bean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are strong, with premium auction results and increased purchase prices. South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the supply - side risk is low. The domestic import cost of soybeans has decreased, and the gross profit of crushing on the futures market is good. Short - term focus on domestic policies and the spot market [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% probability of La Niña turning to ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year. The total sales volume of new - season US soybeans is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, and the US soybean futures price has returned to the previous bottom. In China, soybean crushing volume decreased during the New Year's Day holiday, with an expected 8 million tons in January. The soybean meal price will oscillate at the bottom following US soybeans, waiting for possible South American weather changes [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly in December, with poor exports. There is a risk of continued inventory accumulation. South American soybean supply - side risk is low. Domestic soybean import cost has decreased, and the crushing gross profit is good. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil by - products is relatively high. In the medium - term, pay attention to the soybean import rhythm. In the macro - environment, do not over - short. Adopt an oscillatory approach [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus of the rapeseed market is on the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed crushing and the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed has not been crushed, and the domestic coastal rapeseed inventory has not accumulated. The Canadian visit may promote the resolution of trade disputes. The futures price is at the bottom, but there is a risk of downward oscillation in the first half of January, and the strategy is oscillatory and bearish [6]. 3.5 Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and North ports are strong, and farmers' selling willingness has increased. Traders' inventory is low, and the supply in North China is accelerating. The number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises has increased after the holiday. There will be more auctions after the New Year's Day, which may form pressure. The Dalian corn futures will be oscillatory and bearish in the short - term [7]. 3.6 Live Pigs - After the New Year's Day, the slaughter volume and spot price of live pigs have declined. There is a high price difference between fat and standard pigs, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a risk of price support from second - fattening. The supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year. It is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8]. 3.7 Eggs - The chick replenishment in December decreased by nearly 14% year - on - year. The hen inventory is expected to decline in the first half of next year. It is recommended to go long on the futures contracts of the first half of next year. The 05 contract is supported by the 60 - day moving average before the festival. The potential risk is high valuation. The futures contracts of the second half of next year will be different from those of the first half, and the trading rhythm may be volatile [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Upward Trend (Red Stars)**: None - **Downward Trend (Green Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Low Operability (One Star)**: Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - **Bearish with Low Operability (One Star)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars)**: All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean (★★★), indicating a clear upward trend and relatively good investment opportunities [1] - **Moderate Positive**: Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal (★★☆), suggesting a relatively clear upward - trending judgment and an ongoing market rally [1] - **Weak Positive**: Rapeseed Oil, Corn (★☆☆), showing a driving force for upward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Weak Negative**: Eggs (★☆☆), with a driving force for downward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Live Pigs (★★★), indicating a clear downward trend and relatively good short - selling opportunities (implied) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trends of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy. Different products have different outlooks, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to be in a volatile state [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Product Category Soybean - After a brief gap, the soybean market rebounded, and the contract was being rolled over. The auction of 21,000 tons of soybeans by Sinograin had a turnover of 13,000 tons at a base price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4027 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton, providing support to the price [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved recently, with a 68% probability that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean futures have fallen back to the previous low - range, and new - season US soybean sales are the lowest in the same period of the past five years. In China, last week, the inventory of imported soybeans in oil mills increased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The price of soybean meal will follow the fluctuations of US soybeans and wait for changes in South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil reduced their positions, and prices rebounded from the low level, presumably due to short - covering by bears. Malaysian high - frequency data shows that palm oil exports have improved month - on - month, while production has declined month - on - month, alleviating the bearish atmosphere. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and the short - term weather risk in South American production areas is low [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market has rebounded recently. After the continuous decline in futures prices, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to the marginal positive factors in supply and demand. Coastal oil mills in China maintain zero inventory of rapeseed products, and the restart of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade is difficult to predict. In the medium term, with a global oversupply of rapeseed, rapeseed prices are under pressure, and the price bottoming process may be long. The trading strategy for rapeseed products has changed from bearish to short - term wait - and - see [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and northern ports remain weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality and high - priced corn. Corn procurement enthusiasm in North China has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. After the short - term supply - demand imbalance is alleviated, the enthusiasm of upstream sellers is on the rise, while downstream procurement shows no significant increase. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - After the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume dropped rapidly, and the weekend spot price of live pigs was significantly reduced. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20% - 30%. It is expected that there will be another round of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide short - term support for the current pig price. In the medium to long term, the pig cycle bottom usually shows a double - bottom ("W") pattern, and the low price in October is likely the first bottom. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year under the pressure of supply and the off - season of demand. The main 03 contract is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg spot price is in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an oversupply situation. The February contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the industry's inventory is decreasing month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and combined with the off - season demand, the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year are expected to be relatively strong as the supply continues to decline month - on - month and demand returns to normal. An egg reverse spread strategy can be considered, such as 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spreads. The high - premium contracts for the peak season next year are not suitable for investment currently [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜粕: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 菜油: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 鸡蛋: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] Report's Core View - 农产品各品种走势分化，需关注各品种供需、政策、天气等因素变化，部分品种短期面临压力，部分品种策略上有偏空倾向 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 豆一主力合约跳空下跌后盘整且移仓，本周四中储粮购销双向指卖底价3900元/吨，全部成交但成交价格较上次跌130元/吨，下周一计划竞价拍卖2.1万吨，短期供应压力环比增加，本周五进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格均下滑，需关注政策端表现 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 今日进口大豆拍卖成交比例32.66%，成交均价3750.83元/吨，南美天气好转，拉尼娜明年一季度转ENSO中性概率68%，交易逻辑重回美豆出口担忧和南美丰产预期，美豆销售量近5年同期最低，期货价格跌回前期底部，豆粕价格追随美豆震荡，等待南美天气变化 [3] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格下滑，海外美豆油和马棕油疲弱，全球菜籽供需宽松带动豆棕油走弱，国内油脂延续疲弱，进口大豆拍卖频率提升带来短期供应压力，CBOT大豆市场忧虑美豆出口，中期南美天气是矛盾点，海外棕榈油马来西亚库存压力高，需谨慎后续产量降幅低于往年拉长高库存周期，短期注意油脂供需面压力 [4] 菜粕&菜油 - 菜系延续下跌，市场对中加关系预期转暖，全球菜籽供需宽松，加拿大菜籽出口多元化推进慢，期价下沉，澳大利亚菜籽将压榨，市场对放开商业购买有预期，菜系焦点在进口端，关注政策变数，策略偏空 [6] 玉米 - 东北及北港玉米现货价格下行，东北农户惜售减弱，下游对高价粮观望，华北采购积极性降温，阶段性供需错配缓解，关注东北售粮进度和拍卖情况，短期大连玉米期货03合约高位震荡偏弱 [7] 生猪 - 生猪期货小幅反弹，现货冬至备货结束价格回落，从能繁母猪存栏推算春节后出栏处高峰，需求为淡季，预计春节后猪价二次探底，03、05合约期价偏空，春节前关注供应端出栏和去库情况 [8] 鸡蛋 - 春节后2、3、4月合约受打压，2月合约创新低，资金增仓超2万手，市场忧虑高存栏和需求淡季对价格施压，中长期基本面改善，当前处于牛熊转折期，后期存栏有望下降，盘面关注节奏和预期差 [9]

Group 1 - The domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets have experienced significant dynamics recently, particularly in soybean and rapeseed meal and oil sectors [1] - Canadian canola seed exports sharply decreased by 72.1% in the week of July 6, dropping from 173,500 tons to 48,400 tons [1] - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that approximately 9% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 8, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's CONAB forecasts a soybean production of 169.4879 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 21.766 million tons year-on-year [1] - The USDA reported that net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/25 season increased to 503,000 tons, with cumulative sales reaching 50.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.62 million tons [1] - The U.S. imposing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products will raise farm costs, impact the soybean supply chain, and pose risks to international markets [1] Group 3 - In the palm oil sector, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.52% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production fell to 1,692,310 tons in June, a month-on-month decline of 4.48%, marking the first decrease in four months [1] - Palm oil inventories in Malaysia rose to 2,030,580 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.41%, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [1]