据记者统计，当前已有近20家券商发布了10月金股名单。从板块来看，券商较为看好电子、有色金属、 游戏等板块。同时，三季报将陆续披露，券商提示关注业绩有望超预期的方向，如电新、创新药、新消 费等行业。 来源：中国基金报 作为卖方月度观点的风向标，券商每月"金股"策略报告也在一定程度上反映出机构的共识与分歧。步入 10月，券商"金股"如何调整策略？ 华金证券建议继续逢低配置：一是政策和产业趋势上行的电子（消费电子、半导体）、通信（算力）、 机械设备（机器人）、有色金属（稀有金属、贵金属）、传媒（游戏）、计算机（AI应用）等行业； 二是基本面可能有所改善的电新（固态电池、储能、风电）、创新药、新消费、食品、军工等行业。 芯片、新能源、有色板块受关注 9月金股最高上涨86.5% 复盘9月各券商金股组合表现，每市科技数据显示，10家券商金股组合9月收益超过9%。其中，华安证 券的金股组合以20.91%的当月收益排名第一；东莞证券9月金股表现也可圈可点，以17.04%的收益排在 第二；华龙证券、太平洋证券、国元证券等券商紧随其后。 | 序号 | 券商名称 | 当月收益 | 今年累计收益 | | --- | --- | - ...

Market Overview - On September 29, the A-share market strengthened with all three major indices rising, led by the brokerage, new energy, precious metals, and humanoid robot sectors [1][2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached 115.29 trillion yuan, with a rolling P/E ratio of 22.36 times for the entire A-share market and 14.19 times for the CSI 300 index [6] Sector Performance - The brokerage and new energy sectors significantly contributed to the market's rise, with the CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.54% and 1.09%, respectively [2][3] - The non-bank financial sector led the market with a rise of 3.84%, followed by the non-ferrous metals and power equipment sectors, which rose by 3.78% and 3.07%, respectively [3] - Notable stocks contributing to the Shenzhen Component Index included Ningde Times, Dongfang Wealth, and Yiyuan Lithium Energy, which collectively contributed over 83.62 points to the index [2][3] Trading Volume and Financing - The A-share market recorded a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, marking the 34th consecutive trading day with a volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1][2] - As of September 26, the margin trading balance reached 24,244.58 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 24,080.56 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of over 260 billion yuan in the previous week [4][5] Capital Flow - On September 29, the net inflow of main funds into the CSI 300 exceeded 60 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1][5] - The non-bank financial, computer, and power equipment sectors saw the highest net inflows of main funds, amounting to 50.99 billion yuan, 12.56 billion yuan, and 8.40 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that October may present a critical window for the A-share market, with expectations of improved risk appetite and upward momentum [1][6][7] - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key focus for medium to long-term investments, driven by ongoing industry trends and the recent initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [7]

Group 1 - The market showed positive performance with a total trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 146 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The top three sectors with net capital inflow were non-bank financials (13.586 billion yuan), electric equipment (9.069 billion yuan), and computers (9.149 billion yuan) [2] - Historical trends indicate that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, with expectations for continued upward movement in the market [2] Group 2 - The launch of the A-series ETFs by Huabao Fund provides investors with diverse options to invest in China's market, tracking major indices such as the A50, A100, and A500 [2] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF targets the top 500 companies in the A-share market [2]

A-share Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices from September 22 to September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.11 points, up 0.21% for the week [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.00 points, up 1.06%, while the ChiNext Index ended at 3151.53 points, up 1.96% [2][3] - Over 30% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 126 stocks rising over 15% and 50 stocks declining over 15% [2] Sector Performance - According to the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, media, and public utilities saw increases [2] - Conversely, sectors including social services, comprehensive, retail, light industry manufacturing, and textiles and apparel experienced declines [2] International Market Overview - The New York stock market indices rose on September 26, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 299.97 points to close at 46247.29 points, a gain of 0.65% [4][5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 38.98 points to 6643.70 points, up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 99.37 points to 22484.07 points, up 0.44% [4][5] - European indices also saw gains, with the FTSE 100 rising by 70.85 points to 9284.83 points, up 0.77%, and the CAC 40 increasing by 75.26 points to 7870.68 points, up 0.97% [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for November delivery rising by $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel, a gain of 1.14% [4][5] Economic Policies and Initiatives - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting to discuss the economic operation of state-owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing excessive competition [6] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, export licenses will be required for pure electric passenger vehicles to promote healthy trade in new energy vehicles [6] - The People's Bank of China suggested enhancing monetary policy regulation to improve effectiveness and match monetary supply growth with economic growth [7][8] Industry Growth Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments issued a growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [9] - A similar plan for the petrochemical industry was also released, emphasizing policy support and financial backing for technological innovation and equipment upgrades [9] Industrial Profit Trends - From January to August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China grew by 0.9%, reversing a previous decline, with significant growth observed in August [10] Market Outlook - Analysts from Everbright Securities expect the A-share market to continue rising post-holiday, with a focus on the TMT sector as a key driver [11] - Open-source Securities suggests a dual-driven market with technology leading, and recommends focusing on high P/E stocks as the market transitions [11][12]

9月27日，光大证券研报认为，节后A股市场有望继续上行。历史来看，国庆节后随着市场交易热度的 回暖，市场通常表现较好。对于本轮行情而言，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发生变化，市场估值目 前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支，预计节后市场大概率将重新回到上行区间。配置方向上，建议重点 关注TMT主线。流动性驱动行情下，行情中期TMT更容易成为主线，本轮或许也会如此。TMT板块当 前存在较多催化，如产业趋势持续有进展、美联储降息周期开启等，自身也存在上行动力。从近期板块 轮动的情况来看，TMT已经有所占优，未来行情或将延续。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to evaluate fundamentals from a global exposure perspective as more Chinese companies shift from domestic to global markets, particularly in manufacturing [1] - The current market rally is largely driven by companies linked to overseas supply chains, indicating a structural market trend rather than a domestic economic cycle [1] - The average daily trading volume is expected to stabilize around 1.6 to 1.8 trillion yuan, suggesting that recent emotional premiums have been absorbed [1] Group 2 - The logic behind the rise of the Chinese stock market is sustainable, with expectations for new highs in A/H shares due to accelerated economic transformation and reduced uncertainties [2] - The decline in opportunity costs for stocks, driven by a sinking risk-free return system, is leading to increased asset management demand and new capital inflows [2] - Institutional reforms aimed at improving investor returns are positively influencing market sentiment and valuations [2] Group 3 - The market presents broad opportunities, with a "transformation bull" characterized by both emerging technology expansion and traditional sector valuation recovery [3] - Key sectors to watch include internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, electronics, semiconductors, and consumer brands, alongside cyclical commodities like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [3] - Long-term stability and monopolistic assumptions remain crucial, with recommendations for sectors like brokerage, insurance, banking, and telecommunications [3] Group 4 - Historical analysis shows that after a "volume peak," upward trends often continue, albeit at a slower rate, indicating that current market fluctuations may not signal a reversal [4] - The positive spiral of profitability and incremental capital remains intact, suggesting that the liquidity-driven bull market narrative is still valid [4] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a "bull market mindset" and focus on industry leaders despite short-term market volatility [4] Group 5 - The recovery in M1 growth and narrowing M2-M1 gap indicates a trend of household savings moving towards equity markets, suggesting ongoing capital inflows [5] - The U.S. labor market's unexpected weakness and expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts are influencing market dynamics, prompting a focus on high-growth sectors like software and communication equipment [5] Group 6 - The focus on fundamental factors is expected to return as the market enters a slow bull phase, with a need for a turnaround in deflationary trends to attract foreign investment [7] - Key sectors include AI, livestock farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [7] Group 7 - The market is entering a phase of rotation and expansion, with a focus on sectors driven by economic trends rather than merely seeking undervalued stocks [8] - September is traditionally a strong month for sector rotation, providing opportunities for identifying new growth areas [8] Group 8 - The improvement in fundamentals is expected to spread economic prosperity across more sectors, moving beyond just a few high-performing industries [9] - Recommendations include focusing on resource sectors and domestic demand recovery in food and tourism as well as long-term benefits for insurance and brokerage firms [9] Group 9 - The A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable global liquidity conditions and domestic capital inflows [10] - The focus on AI and new productive forces is expected to drive market dynamics, with attention to sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements [10] Group 10 - The stock market's upward trajectory is supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors, including the potential for a Fed rate cut and a rebound in public fund issuance [11] - Key sectors for September include power equipment, communication, computing, electronics, and automotive industries, with a focus on TMT as a potential mainline [12] Group 11 - The "slow bull" market is expected to continue, with high-growth sectors being prioritized as the market adapts to ongoing policy support and potential capital inflows [13] - The upcoming policy meetings and the increasing capital expenditure in the AI sector are anticipated to positively influence market sentiment [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to evaluate the fundamentals of companies from a global exposure perspective rather than a domestic economic cycle perspective, as more Chinese companies shift towards global markets [2] - The current market trend is driven by "smart money" and structural market dynamics, suggesting a strategy that minimizes volatility and avoids broadening exposure [2] - The average daily trading volume is expected to stabilize around 1.6 to 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating the digestion of recent emotional premiums [2] Group 2 - The logic supporting the rise of the Chinese stock market is sustainable, with expectations for new highs in A/H shares due to accelerated transformation and reduced uncertainties in economic development [3] - The decline in opportunity costs for the stock market, driven by a sinking risk-free return system, is leading to an explosion in asset management demand and new capital inflows [3] - Institutional changes and timely economic policies are crucial for boosting market valuations and improving perceptions of Chinese assets [3] Group 3 - The Chinese market presents broad opportunities, with a "transformation bull market" encompassing both structural and traditional sectors, including emerging technologies and valuation recovery in established companies [4] - Key sectors to watch include internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, electronics, semiconductors, and consumer brands, alongside cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4] - Long-term stability and monopolistic assumptions remain important, with recommendations for sectors such as brokerage, insurance, banking, and telecommunications [4] Group 4 - The market is currently experiencing a "volume peak," which historically indicates a continuation of upward trends, although the pace may slow [5][6] - The positive spiral of index profitability and incremental capital remains intact, suggesting that the liquidity-driven bull market narrative is still valid [6] - Investors are advised to maintain a "bull market mindset," as trends once established are difficult to reverse [6] Group 5 - High M1 growth and narrowing M2-M1 differentials indicate a trend of residents moving savings into equity markets, with a focus on high-prosperity sectors like software and communication equipment [7] - The expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has heightened interest in the A-share market, particularly in sectors poised for recovery [7] Group 6 - The focus on high-prosperity sectors and inflation improvement is crucial as the market transitions into a slow bull phase, with a need for fundamental support [8] - Key industries to monitor include AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [8] Group 7 - The market is entering a phase of rotation and expansion, with a focus on sectors driven by prosperity and industrial trends [9] - September is traditionally a strong month for industry rotation, providing opportunities for new growth directions [9] Group 8 - The improvement of fundamentals is expected to spread prosperity across more sectors, moving beyond just growth versus value discussions [10] - Key areas for investment include upstream resources, capital goods, and domestic demand-related sectors like food and tourism [10] Group 9 - A-shares are likely to continue a volatile upward trend, supported by global liquidity conditions and domestic capital flows [11] - The AI sector is anticipated to be a primary driver of market performance, with significant potential for growth [11] Group 10 - The market is expected to maintain an upward trajectory, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors like the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut [13] - Key sectors for September include power equipment, communication, computing, electronics, and automotive [13] Group 11 - The "slow bull" market in A-shares is expected to continue, with high-prosperity sectors being the primary focus [14] - The upcoming policy changes and the ongoing AI investment trends are likely to provide further market support [14]

Core Insights - The overall market valuation has gradually recovered, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE (TTM) valuation at the 88th percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high level compared to the past three years [3][23][29] - Short-term liquidity remains the most crucial support for the market, while medium-term focus should be on profitability, with the mid-year performance likely being the lowest point for the year [4][39][45] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to be a key focus in the medium term, as it has shown stable performance during the current market rotation [4][90][109] Market Style and Industry Recommendations - The market in September is anticipated to rotate between growth and balanced styles, with recommended sectors including TMT, electric new energy, military industry, automotive, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and non-bank financials [5][131][148] - In the Hong Kong market, there is a focus on consumer and internet sectors, which still hold certain value despite the overall good performance this year [6][131] Industry Analysis - The TMT sector has shown significant potential for growth, with historical data indicating that it has often become a medium-term mainstay during liquidity-driven markets [90][101][109] - The advanced manufacturing sector is also highlighted as a potential mainstay in a fundamental-driven market, benefiting from economic improvements [90][104] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and income recovery in driving domestic consumption, which is crucial for sectors like consumer goods and services [85][86]