智通财经11月13日讯（编辑 胡家荣）本周港股三大指数涨幅不一。截至收盘，恒生指数累计涨1.26%，报26572.46点；科技指数累计跌0.42%，报5812.80 点；国企指数累计涨1.41%，报9397.96点。 注：恒生指数的本周表现 从本周来看，恒生指数周一至周四震荡上行，但周五受外围市场拖累出现回调。 为何港股本周持续震荡？ 港股市场波动与外围环境密切相关。美国政府停摆期间，财政支出几近停滞，而税收等资金持续流入TGA账户，形成"只进不出"局面，导致近万亿美元流动 性被暂时锁定。这一情况推高了美元资金成本，并对美股、港股等风险资产形成压制。 不过，西部证券最新研究报告指出，随着美国政府结束停摆，此前被"冻结"的美元流动性有望释放，港股或迎来一轮流动性驱动行情。 此外，南向资金持续提供强劲支撑：内地资金通过港股通持续流入，年内净买入额已突破1.3万亿港元，累计规模超5万亿港元，成为市场构筑坚实支撑。南 向资金成交占比在港股市场已超过三成，定价权显著增强，港股正从外资主导的离岸市场，逐步转变为更多由内资定价的"半在岸市场"。 市场资金回流医药股 截至收盘，中国黄金国际(02099.HK)跌3.94%、紫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities emphasizes a focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the medium term, while suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and consumer sectors if market volatility occurs [1] Industry Focus - The TMT sector is expected to be a main focus due to several catalysts, including the onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing development of the AI industry, which provides upward momentum [1] - In the event of a market shift towards fundamentals, advanced manufacturing is highlighted as a key area of interest, indicating its potential for growth in the current mid-term market phase [1] Market Conditions - If market turbulence arises, attention should be directed towards sectors that are lagging, such as high-dividend stocks and consumer sectors, which include industries like banking, utilities, food and beverage, and beauty care [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities emphasizes a focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the mid-term, while suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and consumer sectors if market volatility occurs [1] Industry Focus - Mid-term attention is directed towards the TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with TMT likely to be a main focus during liquidity-driven market conditions [1] - The TMT sector currently has several catalysts, including the onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing development of the AI industry, which provide upward momentum [1] Market Conditions - If the market shifts towards being driven by fundamentals, advanced manufacturing should be a key area of focus, as the current market may be in a mid-term phase [1] - In the event of market turbulence, sectors that are lagging, such as high-dividend stocks and consumer sectors, should be monitored, including industries like banking, utilities, food and beverage, and personal care [1]

那天刷到长鑫科技完成IPO辅导的消息时，我正在咖啡厅里对着K线图发呆。这家估值突破1400亿元的存储芯片龙头，由中信建投和中金联合辅导，股东名 单长得像春运火车票。合肥清辉集电持股21.67%，TrendForce预测其DDR5市场份额将从1%飙升至7%——这些数字晃得我眼晕。 最近大火的液冷概念就是个活教材。同样是这个概念，为什么有的股票翻倍，有的却跌跌不休？我研究了涨幅前三的个股，发现它们有个共同秘密： 作为复旦金融系毕业的老股民，我本该为这样的国产替代标杆欢呼。但看着手机里持仓的半导体ETF纹丝不动，而隔壁桌的年轻人却在炫耀他买的"液冷概 念股"三天两个涨停，那种熟悉的焦虑又涌了上来。这让我想起2025年4月以来的这轮行情：上证涨了700多点，我的账户却像被施了定身术。 你们有没有经历过这种魔幻时刻？持有的股票死活不涨，终于忍不住换仓，结果原来的开始飙升，新买的却跌得更凶。我管这叫"双面耳光"，就像站在十字 路口，无论选哪边都会被扇一巴掌。 这轮行情本质是流动性驱动的狂欢。但问题是，普通散户根本看不到流动性的潮汐变化。当你在纠结"要不要追热点"时，机构早就用量化模型把资金流向摸 得一清二楚。就像长鑫科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The TMT sector is expected to be a key focus in the current market driven by liquidity, with several catalysts present, including advancements in AI and significant growth in Oracle's remaining performance obligations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Cathay Science and Technology Innovation Index ETF (589630) rose over 2.8% on October 9 [1] - The index tracks the Science and Technology Innovation Index (000680), which reflects the overall performance of eligible listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The TMT sector is highlighted as having multiple catalysts, such as Alibaba's launch of a more efficient AI model and Oracle's substantial increase in remaining performance obligations [1] - If the market shifts towards a fundamentals-driven approach, advanced manufacturing will be a key area of focus, particularly in mechanical equipment and military industries [1] - The electrical equipment sector is also noted for frequent catalysts related to solid-state batteries [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In October, sectors to watch include electronics, electrical equipment, communications, media, and mechanical equipment [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the STAR 50 index rising by 6.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1][9][10] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [1][9][10] - Market style has shifted towards growth, with large-cap growth stocks increasing by 2.5% while small-cap value stocks decreased by 0.8% [1][12][19] Group 2 - Recent policy developments include the maintenance of the LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with no new special treatment sought by China in WTO negotiations [2][17][18] - The steel industry has received a growth stabilization plan from five departments, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [2][21] - Major tech events include the 2025 Yunqi Conference where Alibaba Cloud showcased innovations, and Huawei's launch of new electric vehicle models, indicating ongoing advancements in the TMT sector [2][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market fluctuations align with historical patterns, with potential adjustments expected to narrow the market's upward movement to 6%-7% [3][23] - The logic supporting the current bull market remains intact, with expectations for continued stability in the economic fundamentals and a favorable environment for TMT sectors [3][24][33] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a key focus for mid-term investments, driven by liquidity and recent positive developments in the industry [3][37][45]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a "slow bull" phase, with fluctuations in trading volume observed during the week of September 8-12, indicating a stabilization and potential upward trend in the market. Market Trends - The market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since early August, with major indices reaching new highs before a slight pullback, forming a doji candlestick pattern [1] - The 5-week moving average has continued to provide support since late June, indicating a sustained upward trend [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a longer-term perspective, reducing sensitivity to daily fluctuations and focusing on overall market trends [4] - Those with confidence in the medium to long-term trends are more likely to engage in "bottom-fishing" during market corrections, as evidenced by positive feedback for those who bought during recent dips [5] Short-term Market Outlook - A report from Huajin Securities suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience fluctuations while maintaining a slow bull trend [6] - Key factors influencing this outlook include: - Ongoing positive policies and limited external risks [7] - Market sentiment indicators have not fully adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile at 65.7% and turnover rate at 75.6%, indicating room for further adjustment [7] - Industry rotation is still incomplete, with only the agriculture sector showing signs of recovery [8] Economic Indicators - The economy and corporate earnings are in a weak recovery phase, with August export growth slowing and credit growth rebounding, suggesting continued economic improvement [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decline has narrowed, indicating potential recovery in industrial profits [9] Liquidity Conditions - Short-term liquidity remains accommodative, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which may support market liquidity [9] - Historical trends suggest that during bull market corrections, foreign capital tends to flow in, while domestic financing may face outflow risks [9] Sector Performance - Recent market performance has shown a divergence in styles, with small-cap stocks performing well and sectors such as electronics, real estate, and agriculture showing relative strength [9] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors, including a potential Fed rate cut and a rebound in public fund issuance [11] Industry Focus - In September, sectors such as power equipment, telecommunications, computers, electronics, automotive, and media are recommended for attention [12] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is highlighted as a potential mainline focus due to ongoing industry trends and catalysts, with recent performance indicating its strength [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on commodity prices, the current state of the egg market, trading strategies in various sectors, and the dynamics of the lithium market in China, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rate Cuts and Commodity Prices - The relationship between overseas commodity indices and the U.S. dollar index has shifted over the years, showing a positive correlation before 2001, a negative correlation from 2001 to 2021, and a return to positive correlation from 2021 to 2024 due to the U.S. becoming a net exporter of oil [2]. - Commodity indices typically exhibit a "√" shaped trend during interest rate cuts, initially declining before rebounding as the Federal Reserve waits for unemployment and inflation to stabilize [2]. Group 2: Egg Market Analysis - The current egg market is characterized by slow depletion, steep structure, and high volatility, suggesting a prolonged decline in prices until March next year [3]. - A single strategy based on the leading chicken index indicates that shorting near-month contracts on price rallies is advisable, while an arbitrage strategy suggests that the near-low and far-high structure will continue [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Identifying market trends is crucial for stock trading, with a focus on leading stocks within sectors that are experiencing significant upward movement [5]. - The initiation point of a main upward wave is often marked by a MACD crossover above the zero line, indicating a strong buying opportunity [7]. Group 4: Lithium Market Dynamics - The expiration of mining licenses in the Jiangxi province has raised concerns about potential production halts, with a focus on compliance with new regulations regarding lithium mining [9]. - The influx of lithium ore imports has supported domestic production, with expectations for increased carbon lithium output in the coming months [10]. Group 5: Market Liquidity and Stock Performance - The current market rally is driven by liquidity rather than fundamental support, with the potential for sustained growth as long as liquidity remains abundant [11]. - A comparison of price-to-earnings ratios indicates that A-shares are not overvalued, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [12]. Group 6: Rubber Market Outlook - The rubber market is influenced by weather conditions in Southeast Asia, tire factory operating rates, and inventory levels at Qingdao Port, which are critical indicators for price movements [15][17][18]. Group 7: Gold and Commodity Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and other commodities suggests that rising gold prices may indicate a weakening dollar and increased global liquidity, which could eventually lead to improved demand for other commodities [19].

Group 1: Fund Research - The report constructs an active cycle-themed fund pool, categorizing funds into balanced cycle funds and single-track cycle funds based on their allocation to cyclical industries [5][6][7] - Recommended funds include Dachen Industry Trend, HSBC Jintrust Small Cap, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shanghai Core Resources [5][7] - The report highlights that the selected balanced cycle funds focus on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while single-track funds target specific sectors like gas, wind power, and coal [8] Group 2: Securities Industry Analysis - The report indicates that various funds are entering the market, with insurance companies increasing their stock allocation, and public offerings showing signs of recovery [10][11] - It predicts a 48% profit growth for the securities industry in 2025, with specific recommendations for undervalued leading brokers and those with fundamental changes [11] - The report notes that the A-share liquidity index's rapid increase correlates with the median rise of brokerage stocks, suggesting further upside potential for these stocks [10][11] Group 3: Defense Industry Analysis - The report covers Zhimingda, a leading company in the embedded computing industry, forecasting net profits of 103 million, 152 million, and 201 million yuan for 2025-2027 [13][14] - It emphasizes the company's strategic positioning in the midstream market, benefiting from the increasing demand for embedded computers in military applications [14] - The report assigns a target price of 40.83 yuan for 2026, based on a 45x valuation, and gives a "buy" rating [13] Group 4: Macro Analysis - The report discusses the recent market pullback, suggesting it is a short-term adjustment rather than a significant downturn, similar to patterns observed in previous bull markets [16][17] - It highlights that the current market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and structural adjustments, with no major negative macroeconomic changes [16][17] - The report anticipates a continuation of liquidity-driven market trends, with a shift towards a slow bull market supported by economic recovery and inflation expectations [18]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index announced adjustments to the STAR 50 index samples, with individual sample weights not exceeding 10%, impacting stocks like Cambrian Technology which currently has a weight exceeding 15% [2][4] - Cambrian Technology experienced a significant drop of 14.45% on September 4, closing at 1202.00 yuan, amidst a broader market decline where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25% [2][4] - As of September 2, Cambrian Technology's weight was 15.42%, while the top five samples' combined weight reached 46.23%, indicating potential selling pressure on index-tracking funds [4] Group 2 - The consumer sectors such as dairy, retail, beauty, and tourism showed strong performance, with stocks like Lingnan Holdings and Guofang Group hitting the daily limit [4] - Financial analysts predict that the market may enter a phase of consolidation after rapid rotations, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact, driven by liquidity [4] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the A-share market will continue to exhibit structural trends supported by ample liquidity and favorable policy expectations, with a focus on fundamental indicators [5]