2025 年 9 月 27 日 策略研究 把握震荡布局窗口 ——策略周专题（2025 年 9 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场回暖 受风险偏好抬升等因素的影响，本周 A 股市场有所回暖。受产业利好催化、市 场情绪回暖等因素的影响，A 股市场本周整体上行，主要宽基指数普遍上涨。在 主要宽基指数中，本周科创 50 涨幅最大，涨幅为 6.5%，而上证综指涨幅最小， 涨幅为 0.2%。目前万得全 A 估值处于 2010 年以来历史中等偏高位置。 本周市场风格有所分化，成长风格表现较好。从市场风格指数来看，本周市场风 格相对偏向成长。其中，大盘成长（+2.5%）涨幅最大，小盘价值（-0.8%）跌 幅最大。相对而言，市场风格偏向成长，这或许与近期市场情绪持续上行，风险 偏好较高有关。 本周重要事件 政策及会议方面，中方将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇，LPR 利率维持不变。中方 在世贸当前和未来谈判中将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇；国新办举行"高质量完 成'十四五'规划"系列新闻发布会介绍金融业发展成就；9 月 LPR 保持不变， 1 年期 3.0%，5 年期以上 3.5%；国务院食安办等部门正积极推进预制菜国家标 准制定和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a "slow bull" phase, with fluctuations in trading volume observed during the week of September 8-12, indicating a stabilization and potential upward trend in the market. Market Trends - The market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since early August, with major indices reaching new highs before a slight pullback, forming a doji candlestick pattern [1] - The 5-week moving average has continued to provide support since late June, indicating a sustained upward trend [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a longer-term perspective, reducing sensitivity to daily fluctuations and focusing on overall market trends [4] - Those with confidence in the medium to long-term trends are more likely to engage in "bottom-fishing" during market corrections, as evidenced by positive feedback for those who bought during recent dips [5] Short-term Market Outlook - A report from Huajin Securities suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience fluctuations while maintaining a slow bull trend [6] - Key factors influencing this outlook include: - Ongoing positive policies and limited external risks [7] - Market sentiment indicators have not fully adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile at 65.7% and turnover rate at 75.6%, indicating room for further adjustment [7] - Industry rotation is still incomplete, with only the agriculture sector showing signs of recovery [8] Economic Indicators - The economy and corporate earnings are in a weak recovery phase, with August export growth slowing and credit growth rebounding, suggesting continued economic improvement [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decline has narrowed, indicating potential recovery in industrial profits [9] Liquidity Conditions - Short-term liquidity remains accommodative, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which may support market liquidity [9] - Historical trends suggest that during bull market corrections, foreign capital tends to flow in, while domestic financing may face outflow risks [9] Sector Performance - Recent market performance has shown a divergence in styles, with small-cap stocks performing well and sectors such as electronics, real estate, and agriculture showing relative strength [9] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors, including a potential Fed rate cut and a rebound in public fund issuance [11] Industry Focus - In September, sectors such as power equipment, telecommunications, computers, electronics, automotive, and media are recommended for attention [12] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is highlighted as a potential mainline focus due to ongoing industry trends and catalysts, with recent performance indicating its strength [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on commodity prices, the current state of the egg market, trading strategies in various sectors, and the dynamics of the lithium market in China, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rate Cuts and Commodity Prices - The relationship between overseas commodity indices and the U.S. dollar index has shifted over the years, showing a positive correlation before 2001, a negative correlation from 2001 to 2021, and a return to positive correlation from 2021 to 2024 due to the U.S. becoming a net exporter of oil [2]. - Commodity indices typically exhibit a "√" shaped trend during interest rate cuts, initially declining before rebounding as the Federal Reserve waits for unemployment and inflation to stabilize [2]. Group 2: Egg Market Analysis - The current egg market is characterized by slow depletion, steep structure, and high volatility, suggesting a prolonged decline in prices until March next year [3]. - A single strategy based on the leading chicken index indicates that shorting near-month contracts on price rallies is advisable, while an arbitrage strategy suggests that the near-low and far-high structure will continue [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Identifying market trends is crucial for stock trading, with a focus on leading stocks within sectors that are experiencing significant upward movement [5]. - The initiation point of a main upward wave is often marked by a MACD crossover above the zero line, indicating a strong buying opportunity [7]. Group 4: Lithium Market Dynamics - The expiration of mining licenses in the Jiangxi province has raised concerns about potential production halts, with a focus on compliance with new regulations regarding lithium mining [9]. - The influx of lithium ore imports has supported domestic production, with expectations for increased carbon lithium output in the coming months [10]. Group 5: Market Liquidity and Stock Performance - The current market rally is driven by liquidity rather than fundamental support, with the potential for sustained growth as long as liquidity remains abundant [11]. - A comparison of price-to-earnings ratios indicates that A-shares are not overvalued, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [12]. Group 6: Rubber Market Outlook - The rubber market is influenced by weather conditions in Southeast Asia, tire factory operating rates, and inventory levels at Qingdao Port, which are critical indicators for price movements [15][17][18]. Group 7: Gold and Commodity Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and other commodities suggests that rising gold prices may indicate a weakening dollar and increased global liquidity, which could eventually lead to improved demand for other commodities [19].

Group 1: Fund Research - The report constructs an active cycle-themed fund pool, categorizing funds into balanced cycle funds and single-track cycle funds based on their allocation to cyclical industries [5][6][7] - Recommended funds include Dachen Industry Trend, HSBC Jintrust Small Cap, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shanghai Core Resources [5][7] - The report highlights that the selected balanced cycle funds focus on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while single-track funds target specific sectors like gas, wind power, and coal [8] Group 2: Securities Industry Analysis - The report indicates that various funds are entering the market, with insurance companies increasing their stock allocation, and public offerings showing signs of recovery [10][11] - It predicts a 48% profit growth for the securities industry in 2025, with specific recommendations for undervalued leading brokers and those with fundamental changes [11] - The report notes that the A-share liquidity index's rapid increase correlates with the median rise of brokerage stocks, suggesting further upside potential for these stocks [10][11] Group 3: Defense Industry Analysis - The report covers Zhimingda, a leading company in the embedded computing industry, forecasting net profits of 103 million, 152 million, and 201 million yuan for 2025-2027 [13][14] - It emphasizes the company's strategic positioning in the midstream market, benefiting from the increasing demand for embedded computers in military applications [14] - The report assigns a target price of 40.83 yuan for 2026, based on a 45x valuation, and gives a "buy" rating [13] Group 4: Macro Analysis - The report discusses the recent market pullback, suggesting it is a short-term adjustment rather than a significant downturn, similar to patterns observed in previous bull markets [16][17] - It highlights that the current market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and structural adjustments, with no major negative macroeconomic changes [16][17] - The report anticipates a continuation of liquidity-driven market trends, with a shift towards a slow bull market supported by economic recovery and inflation expectations [18]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index announced adjustments to the STAR 50 index samples, with individual sample weights not exceeding 10%, impacting stocks like Cambrian Technology which currently has a weight exceeding 15% [2][4] - Cambrian Technology experienced a significant drop of 14.45% on September 4, closing at 1202.00 yuan, amidst a broader market decline where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25% [2][4] - As of September 2, Cambrian Technology's weight was 15.42%, while the top five samples' combined weight reached 46.23%, indicating potential selling pressure on index-tracking funds [4] Group 2 - The consumer sectors such as dairy, retail, beauty, and tourism showed strong performance, with stocks like Lingnan Holdings and Guofang Group hitting the daily limit [4] - Financial analysts predict that the market may enter a phase of consolidation after rapid rotations, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact, driven by liquidity [4] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the A-share market will continue to exhibit structural trends supported by ample liquidity and favorable policy expectations, with a focus on fundamental indicators [5]

Macro Insights - The report suggests that the stock and bond markets are likely to gradually "decouple," with the market pricing in profit recovery and capital inflow expectations [1][7] - There is a reallocation logic in assets due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar cycle and global capital reallocation [1][7] - Short-term sentiment has not reached extreme levels, but there is a focus on style rebalancing driven by micro trading congestion, with narratives shifting towards consumption, non-ferrous metals, and innovative industries [1][8] Defense and Aerospace - The report on Xirui (2507.HK) indicates that the company is gradually expanding its production capacity and service network, with expected net profits of $170 million, $210 million, and $260 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.0, 11.2, and 9.2 [2][10] - The demand for private jets is increasing, driven by a growing high-net-worth population and improved flight infrastructure, benefiting leading companies like Xirui [9] Electronics - Shengke Communication (688702.SZ) is expected to achieve revenues of 1.353 billion, 1.776 billion, and 2.195 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.1%, 31.3%, and 23.6% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][13] - The company is focusing on high-end switch chip products to meet the demands of large-scale data centers and cloud services [12] Computer Industry - Ruijun Power (301236.SZ) is projected to achieve revenues of 365 billion, 424 billion, and 493 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 3.84 billion, 5.18 billion, and 7.81 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4][16] - The company is deepening its soft-hard integration strategy, with significant growth in revenue from computing products and smart electronics [15][17] Power Equipment - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ) reported a revenue of 19.394 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.48%, with net profits of 367 million yuan, up 35.22% [22][24] - The company is expanding its international presence and has successfully launched its first experimental line for solid-state batteries, enhancing its competitive edge [24] Automotive - Li Auto (02015.HK) achieved a revenue of 30.25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, maintaining a stable gross margin of 20.1% [30][32] - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with plans to increase the number of supercharging stations significantly [31][32] - The report on Seris (601127.SH) indicates a revenue of 62.402 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 81.03%, driven by strong sales of its high-end models [38][39] Tire Manufacturing - Linglong Tire (601966.SH) reported a revenue of 11.812 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.80%, despite a decline in net profit [41][42] - The company is expanding its global footprint with a new production base in Brazil, aiming to enhance its international competitiveness [42][43]

Core Insights - The overall market valuation has gradually recovered, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE (TTM) valuation at the 88th percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high level compared to the past three years [3][23][29] - Short-term liquidity remains the most crucial support for the market, while medium-term focus should be on profitability, with the mid-year performance likely being the lowest point for the year [4][39][45] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to be a key focus in the medium term, as it has shown stable performance during the current market rotation [4][90][109] Market Style and Industry Recommendations - The market in September is anticipated to rotate between growth and balanced styles, with recommended sectors including TMT, electric new energy, military industry, automotive, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and non-bank financials [5][131][148] - In the Hong Kong market, there is a focus on consumer and internet sectors, which still hold certain value despite the overall good performance this year [6][131] Industry Analysis - The TMT sector has shown significant potential for growth, with historical data indicating that it has often become a medium-term mainstay during liquidity-driven markets [90][101][109] - The advanced manufacturing sector is also highlighted as a potential mainstay in a fundamental-driven market, benefiting from economic improvements [90][104] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and income recovery in driving domestic consumption, which is crucial for sectors like consumer goods and services [85][86]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index has successfully broken through the 3,800-point mark, with trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.55 trillion yuan on August 22, indicating a growing "bull market" sentiment and attracting new capital [1][2] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" among residents is becoming a widely discussed topic, although it is still in its early stages. The recent market uptrend is primarily driven by active funds, with individual investors remaining cautious due to "fear of heights" and profit-taking sentiments [1][5] - The number of new individual investor accounts has surged, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 71% and a month-on-month increase of 19% [2][4] Market Trends - Since April 2025, the A-share market has entered a four-month upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from around 3,360 points to surpass 3,600 points within a month [2] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to approximately 2 trillion yuan in August, compared to 1.63 trillion yuan in July and 1.39 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a gradual improvement in individual investor sentiment [4] - The active user base of securities service applications reached 167 million in July, marking a month-on-month increase of 3.36% and a year-on-year increase of 20.89%, reflecting heightened engagement among investors [3] Investor Behavior - The influx of new accounts is not solely from inexperienced investors; rather, it is primarily driven by experienced retail investors who are familiar with trading processes and are actively seeking to optimize their trading conditions [3] - The trend of "deposit migration" is evidenced by a significant reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits in July, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a shift of savings towards financial markets [5][6] - Despite the trend of deposit migration, the current market uptrend is not predominantly driven by retail investors, as their activity levels remain lower compared to earlier in the year, suggesting lingering caution among this group [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share market has led to a renewed interest among listed companies in stock trading and investment, with Jiangsu Guotai announcing significant plans for both entrusted wealth management and securities investment [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Plans - Jiangsu Guotai plans to use up to 12 billion yuan for entrusted wealth management and up to 1.83 billion yuan for securities investment, totaling over 13.8 billion yuan [1][8]. - The company has already invested 330.6 million yuan in securities as of the announcement date [6]. Group 2: Market Context - Approximately 60 listed companies have announced plans to use idle funds for securities investment this year, with at least seven companies planning investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, with trading volumes exceeding 2.57 trillion yuan on August 22 [3]. Group 3: Economic Drivers - The current market rally is largely driven by liquidity, with various sources of funds entering the market, including debt, real estate, foreign investment, and retail investors [5]. Group 4: Performance of Investments - Jiangsu Guotai's securities investments have not yielded favorable returns, with cumulative fair value changes recorded as -60.45 million yuan for 2023, -69.27 million yuan for 2024, and -71.96 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10]. Group 5: Project Termination - Jiangsu Guotai announced the termination of its lithium-ion battery electrolyte project, which was expected to generate annual revenues of 15 billion yuan, due to land delivery issues and unfavorable market conditions [12][14]. - The project was initially planned with a total investment of approximately 1.538 billion yuan, but the company decided to halt it to optimize resource allocation and mitigate investment risks [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-share market activity, highlighting the trend of listed companies engaging in stock trading and investment management, with a focus on Jiangsu Guotai's significant investment plans totaling over 138 billion RMB [1][3]. Investment Plans - Jiangsu Guotai announced plans to use up to 120 billion RMB for entrusted wealth management and up to 18.3 billion RMB for securities investment, totaling over 138 billion RMB [1][5]. - The company has already invested 3.306 billion RMB in securities as part of its investment strategy [5]. Market Context - Approximately 60 listed companies have announced plans to use idle funds for securities investment this year, with at least seven companies planning investments exceeding 10 billion RMB [3]. - Jiangsu Guotai's stock price was reported at 7.6 RMB per share, with a market capitalization of 124 billion RMB, reflecting a 4.4% increase in August [1]. Performance of Investments - Despite the enthusiasm for stock trading and wealth management, Jiangsu Guotai's investment returns have been disappointing, with cumulative fair value changes recorded as -60.45 million RMB, -69.27 million RMB, and -71.96 million RMB for the years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [8]. - The company's cash balance has also been declining, with figures of 12.571 billion RMB as of June 2025 and 14.730 billion RMB as of December 2024 [8]. Project Termination - Alongside its investment announcements, Jiangsu Guotai also disclosed the termination of its lithium-ion battery electrolyte project due to external conditions and industry changes, stating that the project would not significantly impact its normal operations or current profits [10][12]. - The company cited overcapacity and intense market competition in the lithium-ion battery materials sector as reasons for the project's termination, leading to a significant reduction in expected investment returns [12]. Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a record trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion RMB for eight consecutive trading days [14][16]. - Analysts attribute the current market rally to liquidity-driven factors, with various sources of capital entering the market, including foreign investments and retail investor participation [16].