赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 摘要 2月以来，美国经济持续放缓，美股持续回调，中国风险资产表现抢眼。3月，面临较高的关税不确定 性，国内资产韧性背后的宏观逻辑、后续"政策突围"的潜在演绎？本文分析，供参考。 （一）2月海外市场的主线？美国降息预期再度升温，关税、俄乌扰动频频 2月，美国经济整体走弱，降息预期的升温再度成为宏观聚焦的主线。 2月，花旗经济意外指数由16.8大 幅回落至-16.5，GDPNOW预测2025Q1美国实际GDP环比或大幅下调，零售、销售、就业数据均不及预 期。疲弱的经济，导致市场预期的2025年降息次数由1.7次升至2.7次。 关税政策的反复，也对市场情绪造成了明显冲击。 2月1日特朗普对加、墨加征25%关税，对华加征 10%，前者暂缓。13日，特朗普宣布对等关税。24日以来，特朗普恢复加、墨关税，对欧盟汽车等加征 25%，对华加征10%。关税反复无常，美国贸易、经济不确定性指数飙升。 国内市场，一方面，关注两会前后政策预期的进一步发酵。 财政政策或更加积极，后续需关注增加PSL 等支持" ...

Group 1: DeepSeek and AI Development - DeepSeek's significant advancements in AI represent the rise of Chinese companies in the technology sector, showcasing innovation and inclusivity [2][3] - The open-source approach of DeepSeek promotes global application of AI technology, contributing "Chinese wisdom" to the world [3] - The evolution of mobile communication technologies illustrates the importance of open collaboration in achieving market recognition and success [3] Group 2: Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law is crucial for ensuring equal legal protection for various ownership types and enhancing the business environment for private enterprises [6][7] - The law aims to incorporate the Party's policies on private economic development into legal norms, promoting healthy and high-quality growth [7] Group 3: Sino-US Economic Relations - The essence of Sino-US economic relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since diplomatic relations were established [8][10] - China's stance is to resolve trade disputes within the framework of the World Trade Organization, opposing unilateral tariff increases by the US [10][11] Group 4: China's Economic Outlook - Despite facing unprecedented external challenges, China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth of 5% and a total GDP surpassing 130 trillion yuan [12][13] - The government emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up to stimulate economic vitality [13][14] Group 5: Sino-European Relations - Sino-European relations are characterized by mutual benefits and complementary advantages, with significant contributions to global supply chain stability [15][16] - The collaboration between Chinese and Spanish companies exemplifies successful partnerships that create local employment and revitalize brands [16] Group 6: Local Government Debt Management - The issuance of 20 trillion yuan in replacement bonds has commenced to manage local government debt effectively, ensuring fiscal stability [17][18] - The National People's Congress plays a vital role in supervising government debt management and preventing new hidden debt risks [18]

Core Viewpoint - Ocean Network Express (ONE) plans to invest over 3 trillion yen (approximately 25 billion USD) in growth areas by the fiscal year 2030, driven by the ongoing supply-demand tension in container shipping [1][2]. Investment Plans - ONE will construct 42 new container ships between fiscal years 2025 and 2028, increasing its operational scale by approximately 570,000 TEU compared to August 2024 [2]. - The total investment of 25 billion USD will also include port construction costs for handling its containers [2]. Market Dynamics - The global trade volume is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, with a shift in production bases from China to Southeast Asia and India, leading to new cargo flows [3]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the worsening situation in the Middle East, is anticipated to increase shipping times and the number of vessels at sea, prompting ONE to expand its fleet to capture market share [3]. Competitive Landscape - Major global shipping companies are also increasing their fleet sizes, with MSC and Maersk planning to add new vessels, indicating a competitive investment environment in the shipping industry [3]. - In 2024, a record 457 container ships were built globally, with a projected 6% increase in operational capacity by the end of 2025 [3]. Impact of Tariffs - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on various countries is expected to positively impact the shipping industry, as companies shift production bases to avoid tariffs, resulting in increased shipping volumes from Asia to the U.S. [4].

Macro Events - The National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on March 5, 2025, with key agendas including discussions on government work reports and political resolutions[1] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canada planning to retaliate with tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, slightly below expectations of 50.5, marking the highest level since June 2022[2] - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February is at 47.6, exceeding expectations of 47.3, while Germany's PMI reached 46.5, the highest since January 2023[2] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $68.47, down 2.12% for the day and down 16.71% year-on-year[3] - COMEX gold closed at $2904.10, up 1.28% for the day and up 34.21% year-on-year[3] Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43191.24, down 1.48% for the day and up 11.35% year-on-year[3] - The Nasdaq Composite closed at 18350.19, down 2.64% for the day and up 13.95% year-on-year[3] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.16%, down 0.08% for the day and down 0.18% year-on-year[3] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.96%, down 0.03% for the day and down 0.58% year-on-year[3]

主要观点 • 宏观：全球降息节奏及经济增长变化继续影响市场走势，海外经济增长放缓压力存在，而美国因加关税政策实施， 再通胀压力回升，对经济的负面影响也可能出现。而国内积极财政和适度宽松货币宽松及国内消费刺激之下预期有 一定回升空间，但贸易摩擦不确定性带来全球经济增长降速风险继续存在。地缘形势复杂变化，增强了宏观不确定 性。 • 供应端：锌精矿供给偏紧情况改善，月度加工费出现显著回升。冶炼企业亏损收窄，盈利有继续改善空间，不过锌 定供应仍需要时间改善，流通紧张与预期宽松情况并存。 • 需求端：从锌下游三大需求来看，2025年地产端企稳修复对需求修复料有一定正面企稳作用，以镀锌端为代表的 需求端均会有一定回升可能。但是贸易摩擦料对材料及终端出口带来较多不确定性，需求端扰动因素增加。2025 年初，季节性因素有所显现，春节前开工转淡，春节后逐渐恢复，但开工带来的需求修复程度较为有限，且原料库 存回升也显示，需求增长不及预期。 • 展望：2025年3月，宏观不确定性将继续对有色带来较强扰动，而供需矛盾由供需偏紧向供需过剩转向将进一步延 续，沪锌料转向宽幅波动重心下移，市场运行区间预计主要会在22500-24500元/ ...