Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing demand for tin driven by cyclical recovery, advancements in AI, and the smart development of electric vehicles, alongside tightening global tin supply due to long-term production halts in Myanmar's Wa region [1] - On July 7, Chinalco International held a meeting to promote digital transformation and AI implementation, indicating a push for technological upgrades within the company [1] - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana on the same day, strengthening its gold production capacity [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities noted that global macro sentiment is gradually improving, and the Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, leading to a rebound in industrial metal prices [1] - As of July 2, LME prices for various metals were reported: copper at $10,010/ton, aluminum at $2,614.50/ton, lead at $2,063.50/ton, zinc at $2,753/ton, nickel at $15,340/ton, and tin at $33,585/ton [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metal sector, providing an efficient tool for industry allocation [1]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...

研究报告 铝周报 沪铝或延续震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 5 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 5.8%。从环比看， 5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。2025 年 1—5 月 份，全国固定资产投资 191947 亿元，同比增长 3.7%。其中，民 间固定资产投资同比持平。从环比看，5 月份固定资产投资增长 0.05%。铝土矿进口量环比大幅下降。全球氧化铝供需延续偏紧格 局。氧化铝库存继续增长，但仍然处于底部区域。沪铝库存加速 下降，库存水平处于近年来极低位。LME 铝库存小幅上升，电解 铝国内隐性市场库存延续下降趋势。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 市场情绪延续回暖，风险资产表现偏好 ——中信期货晨报20250630 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 本 2001 11 2017 11:50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1000 1000 1000 10 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 3876.6 | - ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人| 王茂宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美方宣布已与中国签署正式贸易协议 标普、纳指创新高，美元指数大幅走弱。 当周，标普500上涨3.4%，日经225上涨4.6%；10Y美债实际收 益率下行至2.0%；美元指数下跌1.5%至97.26，人民币兑美元升值；WTI原油下跌11.3%至65.5美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌2.8%至3269.2美元/盎司。 美国商务部长卢特尼克6月26日表示，美国和中国已签署了正式贸易协定。 6月26日，卢特尼克称，美国 和中国已于6月24日签署了一项正式贸易协定，内容包括中国解除稀土出口禁令，美国取消乙烷、芯片软 件和喷气发动机等出口禁令，美方暂未透露其他具体条款的细节信息。 联储官员对降息观点分化加剧，德国6月IFO企业预期改善。 本周多位联储官员发表讲话， "鸽派"阵营的 沃勒、鲍曼支持7月降息，但鲍威尔、威廉姆斯等多数官员仍表示应"继续观望"；5月美国实际PCE消费 环比-0.3%；德国6月IFO企业商业预期改善，或反映财政扩张预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - **PP**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - **Logs**: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 地缘冲突缓和，能源品表现偏弱 ——中信期货晨报20250625 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 本 2001 11 2017 11:50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1000 1000 1000 10 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3852.4 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous materials sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a notable decline in various sub-sectors such as rare earths and gold [2][4] - COMEX gold futures closed at $3363.20 per ounce, down $69.4 per ounce, a decrease of 2%, while COMEX silver futures fell to $35.78 per ounce, down $0.5 per ounce, a decline of 1.38% [3][4] - Industrial metals showed slight price increases, with LME copper settling at $9945 per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 3% [3][4] Group 2 - The non-ferrous materials sector saw a decline of 3.3%, with rare earths down 6.02% and gold down 5.34%, while aluminum remained stable [2][4] - Prices for various industrial metals, including LME aluminum and zinc, experienced weekly increases of 1.8% and 2%, respectively, while LME nickel saw a decrease of 1.34% [3][4] - The price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to decline, with lithium hydroxide prices dropping below 60,000 per ton, indicating potential losses for companies without cost advantages [3][4]

LME铝上涨3%，伦敦金属交易所此前出台仓位限制新规。 ...

研究报告 铝周报 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 美国最新经济数据显示，通胀压力比预期缓和，而劳动力市 场却可能正在恶化，美联储降息预期升温。国家统计局数据显示， 2025 年 5 月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降 0.1%，全国居民消费 价格环比下降 0.2%。2025 年 5 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同 比下降 3.3%，环比下降 0.4%。氧化铝企业开工率小幅上升，氧化 铝库存逐步回升，但仍然处于低位。电解铝产能延续缓慢增长趋 势。沪铝库存加速下降，库存水平处于近年来极低位。LME 铝库 存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小幅下降。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 中国 CPI 指数环比下降，沪铝或震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化 ...