（来源：华闻期货） 来源：华闻期货 外盘眼踪 贵金属 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师约瑟夫·卡瓦托尼表示,展 望2026年，配置黄金的战略依据依然充分。目前市场预测明年金 价将处于4000至5300美元区间。 欧佩克+即将召开会议评估全球石油市场，鉴于供应过 能化 剩的迹象日益明显,该联盟的产油国仍有望在明年第一季度暂停增 加供应。几位代表表示,这个由沙特和俄罗斯领导的联盟可能会坚 持本月早些时候达成的计划,即在12月进行一次适度的增产,随后 在明年头三个月保持产量稳定。 | 类别 | 品种 | 11/28 | 12/01 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属 | CMX | 4192.968 | 4258.780 | 1.57 % | | | CMX铝 | 53.924 | 57.127 | 5.94 % | | 能化 | WTI原油 | 59.010 | 58.994 | -0.03 % | | | 布油 | 62.914 | 62.890 | -0.04 % | | 农产品 | 大豆 | 1132.580 | 1137.370 | 0.42 % | | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 多资产周报 回调后的债市 回调后的债市。本周周中债券市场出现较大幅度回调。（1）从本周债市 回调的期限结构来看，短端品种受央行流动性呵护及配置需求支撑，收 益率始终保持稳定，成为保守型机构的核心底仓选择；长端品种则经历 "政策担忧-预期修复"的切换，前期因新规传闻和浮盈兑现承压，后 期随基本面预期落地及配置盘入场实现修复，3-5 年期中短端品种延续 前期交易热度，成为兼顾收益与流动性的优选标的。（2）从回调的原 因来看，实际上，从此前两周长债基本横盘、11 月 21 日股市大幅回踩 但债市几无反馈中， 已经或多或少展示出债市进入空头思维的迹象。 而本周回踩的直接原因则可能是临近年末银行"落袋为安"兑现浮盈的 操作对市场形成阶段性扰动，部分银行减持高流动性长端品种，转而配 置短期限债券以优化报表结构。（3）往后看，近期消息面上，六大行 集体下架五年期大额存单的动作引发市场对利率下行的联想，叠加贷款 端利率压力，LPR 调降预期有所升温，为后期债市回暖提供政策预期支 撑。12 月份市场将进入全年收官阶段，博弈重心逐步转向 2026 年政策 定调，12 月中旬中央经济工作会 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline, with three-month copper down 0.50% to $10,725 per ton, and Shanghai copper down 790 yuan or 0.88% to 85,650 yuan per ton [1] - The strong US dollar, benefiting from reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies [1] - Analysts noted that the labor market signals are becoming increasingly sensitive as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's recent path due to the delayed September employment data [1] Group 2 - Nickel prices also showed weakness, with three-month nickel down 0.58% to $14,565 per ton, testing the lowest levels since April [1] - LME nickel inventories rose to 252,090 tons, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3] - Other metals such as aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin also experienced price declines, with three-month aluminum down 0.68% to $2,794.50 per ton [3] Group 3 - The battery raw material nickel sulfate is showing signs of weakness as of November [2] - The price of ferrosilicon is currently slightly above 900 yuan per nickel point, down from over 950 yuan per nickel point in mid-October [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels for various metals, highlighting both increases and decreases in stock levels across different locations. Group 1: Copper Inventory - The total LME copper inventory stands at 136,250 tons, reflecting a decrease of 25 tons or 0.02% from the previous day [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 1.20%, with a total of 12,6050 tons registered [2] - The cancellation rate for copper warehouse receipts is 7.49%, down from 8.60% [2] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory is reported at 545,225 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - The registered warehouse receipts for aluminum decreased by 5.31%, totaling 509,550 tons [2] - The cancellation rate for aluminum warehouse receipts is 6.54%, slightly down from 6.88% [2] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - Zinc inventory at LME is recorded at 35,300 tons, showing an increase of 400 tons or 1.15% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc increased by 2.06%, totaling 31,000 tons [2] - The cancellation rate for zinc warehouse receipts is 12.18%, down from 12.97% [2] Group 4: Tin Inventory - LME tin inventory is at 3,015 tons, with a decrease of 20 tons or 0.66% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin are at 2,875 tons, with a cancellation rate of 4.64% [2] Group 5: Nickel Inventory - Nickel inventory is reported at 253,308 tons, reflecting a decrease of 96 tons or 0.04% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel are at 238,338 tons, with a cancellation rate of 5.91% [2] Group 6: General Observations - The overall trends indicate fluctuations in inventory levels across various metals, with some experiencing increases while others show declines [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in various commodities, including precious metals, energy, and agricultural products, along with the impact of external factors such as Federal Reserve policies and international oil procurement strategies [3][4][5]. Group 2 - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons or 0.47% from the previous week. The inventory includes 0.7977 million tons of light soda ash, which decreased by 0.0169 million tons, and 0.9085 million tons of heavy soda ash, which increased by 0.0089 million tons [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases, assessing when reserve levels will transition from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [3]. - Indian state-owned oil companies have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market, seeking alternatives to Russian oil supplies, with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation buying 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, expected to arrive in January [3]. Group 3 - Precious metals saw price increases, with CMX gold rising from 4006.100 to 4122.640, a change of 2.91%, and CMX silver increasing from 48.295 to 50.431, a rise of 4.42% [4]. - In the energy sector, WTI crude oil prices slightly increased from 59.869 to 59.880, while Brent crude rose from 63.766 to 63.980, reflecting changes of 0.02% and 0.34% respectively [4]. - Agricultural products also experienced price changes, with soybeans rising from 1117.350 to 1127.950 (0.95%), and wheat increasing from 561.400 to 569.625 (1.47%) [4].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Group 1 - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) warehouse inventories for various metals, highlighting fluctuations in stock levels and the registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts [1][3][5][7][9][11][13] - Copper inventory increased by 75 tons to 133,975 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 10650 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 7.95% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 550,450 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 43,500 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 7.90% [1][5] - Zinc inventory rose by 175 tons to 34,000 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 4,300 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 12.65% [1][9] - Nickel inventory increased by 378 tons to 253,128 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 6,540 tons, showing a cancellation ratio of 2.58% [1][13] Group 2 - The article details specific warehouse inventory changes across various locations, including Rotterdam, Singapore, and Hamburg, indicating the dynamics of metal stock levels [3][5][9][11][13] - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 125 tons to 13,925 tons, while aluminum remained stable at 3,575 tons [3][5] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons to 30,175 tons, while nickel inventory increased by 402 tons to 71,460 tons [9][13] - The cancellation ratios for various metals indicate the proportion of warehouse receipts that have been canceled, reflecting market conditions and demand [1][3][5][9][11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The global supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow significantly to only 1.9% next year, while demand is projected to grow at around 2.3%, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap of approximately 800,000 tons, which may push LME aluminum prices above $3,200 per ton next year [1] Supply Side Summary - Global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is forecasted at 1.9% for next year, indicating a substantial slowdown compared to the growth rate in 2024/2025 [1] Demand Side Summary - The demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by about 2.3% next year, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [1] Price Outlook Summary - The overall supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 800,000 tons, which could result in LME aluminum prices rising to over $3,200 per ton in the coming year [1]