投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨,化工品涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20260123 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03121254 投资咨询号Z0022985 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-01-22 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4719. 4 | -0. 26 | -0.08 | 2. 6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | | | 上证50期货 | 3061.2 | -0. 61 | -0. 75 | 1. 2 | 1. 2 | 1.2 | | | 中证500期货 | 8400 | 0. 25 | 2. 31 | 14. 09 | 14. 09 | 14. 09 | | | 中证 ...

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 地点 | 前日库存 | | 入库 出库 | 今日库存 | 变动 | 注册仓单 | 注销仓单 | 注销占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 141625 | 200 | 700 | 141125 | -500 | 91025 | 50100 | 35.50% | | 昌雄 | 75450 | 0 | 700 | 74750 | -700 | 46750 | 28000 | 37.46% | | 光阳 | 22600 | 200 | 0 | 22800 | +200 | 7175 | 15625 | 68.53% | | हैं। | 13300 | 0 | 0 | 13300 | 0 | 9125 | 4175 | 31.39% | | 農特丹 | 10775 | 0 | 0 | 10775 | 0 | 9775 | 1000 | 9.28% | | 中国青港 | 9400 | 0 | 0 | 9400 | 0 | 9400 | 0 | 0.00% | | 新加坡 | 6875 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals have shown fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 1,750 tons (-1.26%) to 137,225 tons, while aluminum decreased by 2,000 tons (-0.40%) to 495,825 tons [1][4] - Tin inventory increased significantly by 490 tons (+9.05%) to 5,905 tons, indicating a positive trend in this metal's stock [1][11] - The registered warehouse stocks for copper are at 115,150 tons, with a decrease of 0.17%, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 6.56% to 22,075 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 16.09% [2][4] Group 2 - Aluminum registered warehouse stocks are at 446,050 tons, remaining unchanged, while canceled stocks decreased by 3.86% to 49,775 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 10.04% [2][5] - Zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons to 106,800 tons, with registered stocks at 98,750 tons and canceled stocks at 8,050 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 7.54% [9] - The tin inventory's registered stocks increased by 9.45% to 5,790 tons, while canceled stocks decreased by 8.00% to 115 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 1.95% [2][11]

Group 1: Major Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.0% and the Nasdaq falling by 1.5% [2][8][13] - In the US, the S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with energy and utilities up by 3.3% and 0.9% respectively, while consumer discretionary and information technology fell by 3.2% and 1.5% [8] - Emerging market indices generally increased, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 4.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index by 3.2% [2] Group 2: Bond Yields - Developed countries' 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with the US yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [19] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with Turkey's yield up by 133.0 basis points to 29.06% [22] Group 3: Currency Movements - The US dollar index rose by 0.4% to 98.46, while other currencies depreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound [25][35] - The offshore and onshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 6.9890 [35] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.0% to $57.3 per barrel, while gold and silver prices fell significantly, with gold down by 5.0% to $4317.8 per ounce [40][46] - Base metal prices saw an overall increase, with LME copper up by 2.4% to $12,510 per ton [46] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating tensions in the region [56] - The Japanese government announced a record-high budget for the fiscal year 2026, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, a 6.3% increase from the previous year [61] Group 6: Trade Policy Updates - The US postponed tariff increases on soft furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027, maintaining the current 25% tariff rate [66] - The US Trade Representative announced a delay in additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors for 18 months, starting with an initial rate of 0% [66] Group 7: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a pause to assess the impact on the economy [68] - Many participants noted that tariffs' inflationary effects are expected to diminish over time [68]

Core Viewpoint - LME aluminum prices have reached $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022, indicating a significant market shift and potential investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [1]. Group 1 - LME aluminum prices hit $3,000 per ton, marking a notable increase since 2022 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from December 22, 2025, to December 28, 2025. The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable, but the year - on - year increase has narrowed, and the long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been adjusted down. Most sub - indices show changes in growth rates, including narrowing year - on - year increases or expanding decreases [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.3 points (previous value: 129.2 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is adjusted down, with a signal factor of 3.2% (previous value: 3.4%) [9]. 3.2 Production:开工率多数回落 (Most Operating Rates Decline) - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.8 (previous value: 127.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. Operating rates such as electric furnace, polyester, semi - tire, full - tire, PTA, and PX have changed, with most showing a decline [9][11][16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales:商品房成交面积小幅上升 (Slight Increase in Commercial Housing Transaction Area) - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 40.7 (previous value: 40.8), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline has expanded. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 41.4 million square meters (previous value: 34.9 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.2% (previous value: 1.7%) [9][11][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment:石油沥青开工率回升 (Recovery of Asphalt Operating Rate) - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.0 (previous value: 122.1), with a year - on - year increase of 8.3 points (previous value: 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The operating rate of asphalt is 31.3% (previous value: 27.6%) [9][11][39]. 3.5 Export:运价指数小幅上行 (Slight Increase in Freight Rate Index) - The export high - frequency index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 0.3 points (previous value: 0.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1146.7 points (previous value: 1124.7 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 300.6 points (previous value: 293.9 points) [9][11][46]. 3.6 Consumption:日均电影票房回升 (Recovery of Daily Average Movie Box Office) - The consumption high - frequency index is 121.1 (previous value: 121.1), with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points (previous value: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The daily average movie box office is 10,811 million yuan (previous value: 9,836 million yuan) [9][11][56]. 3.7 CPI:水果、鸡肉价格上涨 (Increase in Fruit and Chicken Prices) - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.6 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [10][11][63]. 3.8 PPI:铜铝现货、原油价格上涨 (Increase in Copper, Aluminum Spot, and Crude Oil Prices) - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,088 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,739 US dollars/ton), the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,916 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,855 US dollars/ton), and the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 62 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 60 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][69]. 3.9 Transportation:客运量全面上涨 (Comprehensive Increase in Passenger Volume) - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.9 (previous value: 133.7), with a year - on - year increase of 11.0 points (previous value: 11.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities is 3,905 million person - times (previous value: 3,863 million person - times), the highway logistics freight rate index is 1052 points (previous value: 1051 points), and the number of domestic flights is 12,353 (previous value: 12,172) [10][11][80]. 3.10 Inventory:纯碱库存小幅回落 (Slight Decline in Soda Ash Inventory) - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.7 (previous value: 163.6), with a year - on - year increase of 7.4 points (previous value: 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The inventory days of PTA are 3.6 days (previous value: 3.8 days), and the soda ash inventory is 146.9 million tons (previous value: 151.6 million tons) [10][11][87]. 3.11 Financing:地方债融资由正转负 (Local Government Bond Financing Turns Negative) - The financing high - frequency index is 245.9 (previous value: 245.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.9 points (previous value: 30.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local government bonds is - 3200 million yuan (previous value: 28100 million yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 40800 million yuan (previous value: 57500 million yuan) [10][11][98].

Economic Data Summary - In November, China's industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.2%, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% [1] - From January to November, fixed asset investment in China decreased by 2.6%, with manufacturing investment up by 1.9% and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in China remained stable at 5.1% in November [1] US Employment and Inflation Data - In November, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since May 2021 [1] - The US core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, the slowest increase since early 2021, and the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below market expectations [1][2] Policy Measures in China - The Ministry of Commerce, the central bank, and financial regulators issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, proposing 11 specific measures [2] - Measures include encouraging the use of digital RMB smart contracts to improve consumption policies, promoting personal consumption loans, and exploring financial support for new business models [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials indicated that monetary policy is prepared for 2026, with expectations that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3] - The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral, with no immediate urgency for further rate cuts despite the recent employment and inflation data [3] Market Performance Overview - In the futures market, ICE Brent crude oil fell by 1.14% to $60.12, while COMEX gold rose by 0.93% to $4368.7 [26] - The US dollar index increased by 31.13 basis points, while the Chinese yuan appreciated by 199 basis points against the dollar [26] - In the stock market, the ChiNext index fell by 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28% [28] Bond Market Trends - In the bond market, short-term credit bonds declined while long-term bonds rose, with the 3Y AAA bond yield decreasing by 4 basis points [34] - US Treasury yields also experienced a downward trend, with 3Y, 5Y, and 20Y yields falling by 5 basis points [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US job market shows resilience with initial jobless claims falling to 214,000 and continued claims rising to 1923,000 but well below the annual high. Policy discussions are advancing, and the stock market is generally rising. In China, the Beijing property market policy has been marginally relaxed, and the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy. The A-share market has seen a general rise [2][3]. - The prices of platinum and palladium futures in the domestic market have reached the daily limit for three consecutive days, and the prices of gold and silver futures have hit new highs. However, the market is expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, and there is a risk of a callback due to regulatory policy changes [4][5]. - The price of copper is expected to remain strong in the short term due to a weak US dollar, strong demand expectations, and a tight supply situation in the global mining sector [6][7]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate as the end - of - year consumption weakens and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [8]. - The zinc price is expected to continue to fluctuate due to limited short - term supply - demand contradictions and a lack of overseas guidance during the Christmas holiday [9][10]. - The lead price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited by weak spot trading at the end of the year [11]. - The tin price faces increased pressure for a high - level adjustment due to a weakening supply - side support and weak consumption [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rebound slightly as supply contracts and demand shows marginal improvement [13][14]. - The steel price is expected to fluctuate as the steel market faces a situation of weak supply and demand, with a game between macro - policy expectations and weak terminal reality [15]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate due to a supply - strong and demand - weak market situation [16]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term as the market is affected by multiple factors such as production cuts and cautious procurement [17]. - The price of soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly as the appreciation of the RMB reduces import costs and weather conditions affect crop growth [18]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate as the production contraction supports the price, but there are uncertainties in the market due to various factors [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US job market is resilient, with initial jobless claims at 214,000 and continued claims at 1923,000. Policy discussions are advancing, and the stock market is generally rising. The dollar index rose to 97.9, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell to 4.13%, the gold price adjusted to 4480 after breaking through 4500, the copper price reached a new high, and the oil price slightly declined [2]. - Domestic: The Beijing property market policy has been marginally relaxed to support housing demand. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy. The A - share market had a general rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3940 points, and the trading volume slightly decreased to 1.9 trillion [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Wednesday saw platinum and palladium futures in the domestic market hitting the daily limit for three consecutive days, and gold and silver futures reaching new highs. The silver futures contract had a net inflow of nearly 6.5 billion yuan, while the gold futures had an outflow of 3.5 billion yuan. The night - session prices of platinum and palladium in the NYMEX market fluctuated, and the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market showed different trends. The market is expected to be more volatile in the short term, and there is a risk of a regulatory - induced callback [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper and London copper prices continued to rise. The spot market trading was weak, and the inventory situation in different markets varied. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut expectations and China's central bank's MLF operations affected the market. The import of scrap copper in China increased in November. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell slightly, while the LME price rose. The spot price increased, and the inventory increased. The end - of - year consumption is weakening, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc price fluctuated, and the LME price was weak. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the LME inventory increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the zinc price is expected to continue to fluctuate [9][10]. 3.6 Lead - The Shanghai lead price rose, and the LME price was stable. The spot market inventory was low, and the trading was weak. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic refinery's resumption of production was slow. The lead price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited [11]. 3.7 Tin - The Shanghai tin price adjusted downward, and the LME price was weak. The US job market recovery reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut in January. The supply - side support is weakening, and the consumption is weak. The tin price faces increased pressure for a high - level adjustment [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rebounded slightly. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows marginal improvement. The inventory decreased last week, and the price is expected to rebound slightly in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Steel (Spiral and Coil) - The steel futures prices fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 96,000 tons. The Beijing property market policy adjustment had limited impact. The supply has shrunk, and the demand is seasonally weak. The steel price is expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures prices fluctuated and adjusted. The port spot trading volume was 1.28 million tons. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply is at a high level, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [16]. 3.11 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The double - coking futures prices fluctuated and adjusted. The spot prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The production of coking coal is affected by maintenance, and the coke enterprises' profits have shrunk. The market is affected by multiple factors, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. 3.12 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal futures price fell, and the rapeseed meal futures price rose slightly. The Argentine soybean sales data and the weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina are factors to watch. The appreciation of the RMB has put pressure on the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.13 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rose, while the soybean oil futures price fell slightly and the rapeseed oil futures price rose. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 20 days of December. The Indonesian government's actions may affect production and prices. The price is expected to fluctuate [19][20]. 3.14 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides detailed trading data for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and inventories in different markets on December 24 [21][23][26]. 3.15 Industry Data Perspective - The report presents a comprehensive set of industry data for different commodities, including price changes, inventory levels, and spreads between different varieties and markets, covering metals, energy, and agricultural products [23][26][28].

Group 1: Major Economic Events - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the European Central Bank maintained rates unchanged [1] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000 [58] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [60] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while the COMEX silver price surged significantly [1] - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% to 98.71, with most currencies depreciating against the dollar, including the Japanese yen which fell by 1.2% [25] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.6% to $56.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.2% to $4,354.0 per ounce [36][42] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index showed mixed performance across sectors, with consumer discretionary, materials, and healthcare sectors rising by 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively, while energy and real estate sectors fell by 2.9% and 1.4% [5] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline across most sectors, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors dropping by 2.8% and 3.0% respectively [9] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 3.0 basis points to 4.16%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed trends [15] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with Turkey's yield rising by 175.5 basis points to 30.32% [20]