从 "量" 的逻辑看，三大方向值得关注。一是性价比消费，餐饮供应链（巴比食品、安井食品）与软饮料（东鹏饮料、农夫山泉）凭借高效供应链实现量 增；二是低渗透率赛道，低度酒（百润股份）、益生菌（科拓生物）、燕麦（西麦食品）等受益于健康化趋势，通过专业化创新提升份额；三是出海增量， 安琪酵母等企业以供应链出海模式打开海外市场，本土化布局成效显著。 重点标的布局清晰。"价" 逻辑推荐白酒（贵州茅台、泸州老窖）、乳制品（优然牧业、中国圣牧）、啤酒（青岛啤酒）；"量" 逻辑推荐餐饮供应链、功能 性食品及出海标的（安琪酵母）。需警惕需求修复不及预期、食品安全、原材料成本波动等风险。 未来，行业将在分化中前行，ROA 企稳的调整尾声板块具备估值修复潜力，而契合性价比与健康化趋势的细分赛道将持续释放成长动能，龙头企业凭借效 率与创新优势进一步巩固竞争地位。 报告聚焦食品饮料行业 2025 年表现与 2026 年投资机遇，核心以 ROA（资产回报率）为复苏前瞻指标，结合日本消费分化经验，明确 "价优于量" 的投资主 线，关键内容如下： 行业整体处于分化复苏阶段，ROA 成核心观测指标。2025 年食品饮料板块供需失衡导致存量竞争 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery stage of consumer spending, highlighting that different sectors exhibit both commonalities and differences in their recovery rhythms, driven by supply-demand dynamics and industry structure [4][5] - ROA (Return on Assets) is identified as a leading indicator for the operational recovery of consumer companies, with a focus on analyzing various sub-sectors [4][13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The current recovery sequence indicates that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [5][25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, noting that sectors addressing consumer pain points and with low penetration rates are likely to succeed [5][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors where ROA is stabilizing, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly in traditional sectors like liquor, beer, and dairy [6][8] - It recommends identifying sub-sectors with either price or volume growth, with a preference for price-driven strategies [6][8] Group 4: Detailed Sector Analysis - The frozen food sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with leading companies enhancing operational efficiency through product innovation and channel reforms [27][28] - The snack sector is experiencing high demand, driven by new channel developments, although competition is intensifying [33][35] - The beer industry is under pressure, with a focus on high-end products, but overall growth is slowing due to external economic factors [39][41] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its adjustment phase, with expectations of improved performance as raw milk prices rise [41][42] - The liquor sector is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with performance risks gradually clearing as channels stabilize [43][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 780 million yuan, an increase of 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1][8] - New product contributions are driving growth, with the company focusing on the development of new product lines such as the "Light Enjoy" series and jelly wine, which are in the early stages of market penetration. The whiskey business is also progressing, albeit at a slower pace than expected [8][9] - The company is actively managing inventory levels and channel pressures, with cash flow showing an 8.0% increase compared to revenue, indicating a healthy operational resilience [8] Financial Summary - For 2024A, the total revenue is projected at 3.048 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.6%. The net profit is expected to be 719 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. The EPS for 2024A is estimated at 0.69 yuan [4][15] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 2.4% in 2025E, reaching 3.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 742 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.1% year-on-year. The EPS is projected to rise to 0.71 yuan [4][15] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 70.2%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 20.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]

Core Insights - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan, halving from its peak in 2021, indicating a significant revaluation of the brand previously regarded as "China's gold" [2] - A large number of liquor distributors are exiting the market, with some reporting near-zero sales, highlighting a critical turning point for the industry [2][4] - The current inventory of Feitian Moutai in circulation exceeds the total of the past three years, exacerbated by low-price dumping on e-commerce platforms [2][4] Industry Transformation - The introduction of the revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste" in May 2025, which restricts alcohol at official receptions, is seen as a significant blow to the industry [3] - Despite the policy's limited impact on Moutai's overall consumption, the market sentiment has shifted dramatically, leading to a sustained decline in stock prices across major liquor brands [4] - The average inventory turnover days in the industry have reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, with inventory levels rising by 25% [6] Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are becoming more rational, moving away from the blind pursuit of high-end liquor as an investment [5] - The traditional consumer base of business and management professionals, which once accounted for 85.1% of liquor consumption, is being replaced by younger demographics [8] - The share of white liquor in business banquets has dropped below 50% for the first time, with lighter social beverages like coffee and tea gaining popularity [11] Market Dynamics - The market for mid-range liquor priced between 300-800 yuan is growing rapidly, now accounting for 35% of the market [4] - The low-end liquor market is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, with high-line low-alcohol products experiencing growth rates over 40% [6] - The competition in the low-alcohol segment is intensifying, with established brands and new entrants vying for market share [16] Strategic Shifts - Liquor companies are actively seeking new directions, focusing on low-alcohol and bottled liquor as key growth areas [15] - A significant portion of companies (64.9%) are concentrating resources on core products, while 33.3% are developing new products [18] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by policy adjustments, structural transformations, and intensified competition [19]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The 2024 A-share Secretary Data Report indicates that the total salary of secretaries in A-share listed companies reached 4.086 billion yuan, with an average annual salary of 700,000 yuan, highlighting the significant role of secretaries in connecting investors and listed companies [1]. Salary Distribution - In the low-alcohol beverage industry, the total salary for secretaries across 16 listed companies was 10.5195 million yuan, with an average salary of 657,500 yuan, which is below the market average [1]. - The majority of secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage sector earn between 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan, accounting for 56% of the total [2]. Age and Education - Among the secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage industry, 56% are aged 50 and above, while 31% are aged between 40 and 50, and only 13% are aged between 30 and 40 [2]. - The educational background of secretaries shows that 75% hold a bachelor's degree, while only 25% have a master's degree [2]. Individual Salary Highlights - The highest-paid secretary is from Chongqing Beer, earning 1.3047 million yuan, followed by Yanjing Beer at 1.0516 million yuan, and Zhangyu A at 997,200 yuan [3]. - The lowest-paid secretary is from Mogaogongsi, earning only 140,000 yuan, followed by ST Lanhua at 293,300 yuan [3]. Salary Changes - Among the secretaries, five experienced salary increases, with the highest increase being 244,300 yuan for Yanjing Beer [3]. - Conversely, five secretaries saw salary reductions, with the largest decrease being 252,400 yuan for Zhangyu A [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2024, the total salary of A-share listed company secretaries reached 4.086 billion yuan, with an average annual salary of 754,300 yuan [1] - The low-alcohol beverage industry has 16 listed companies with a total secretary salary of 10.5195 million yuan, averaging 657,500 yuan, which is below the market average [1] Salary Distribution - In the low-alcohol beverage sector, 56% of secretaries earn between 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan, while 13% earn between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan [3] - The highest-paid secretary is from Chongqing Beer, earning 1.3047 million yuan, followed by Yanjing Beer at 1.0516 million yuan, and Zhangyu A at 997,200 yuan [3] - The lowest salary recorded is 140,000 yuan from Mogao Co., followed by 293,300 yuan from *ST Lanhua [3] Salary Changes - Among the companies, five secretaries saw salary increases, with Yanjing Beer’s secretary having the highest increase of 244,300 yuan [3] - Conversely, five secretaries experienced salary reductions, with Zhangyu A's secretary facing the largest decrease of 252,400 yuan [3] Demographics - The majority of secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage industry are aged 50 and above, accounting for 56%, while those aged 40-50 make up 31%, and only 2 are aged 30-40 [1] - Educationally, 75% of secretaries hold a bachelor's degree, while 25% have a master's degree [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2024, the total salary of A-share listed company secretaries reached 4.086 billion yuan, with an average annual salary of 754,300 yuan [1] - The low-alcohol beverage industry has 16 listed companies with a total secretary salary of 10.5195 million yuan, averaging 657,500 yuan, which is below the market average [1] Salary Distribution - In the low-alcohol beverage sector, 56% of secretaries earn between 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan, while 13% earn between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan [3] - The highest-paid secretary is from Chongqing Beer, earning 1.3047 million yuan, followed by Yanjing Beer at 1.0516 million yuan, and Zhangyu A at 997,200 yuan [3] - The lowest salary recorded is 140,000 yuan from Mogao Co., followed by 293,300 yuan from *ST Lanhua [3] Salary Changes - Among the companies, five secretaries saw salary increases, with the highest increase of 244,300 yuan for Yanjing Beer’s secretary [3] - Conversely, five secretaries experienced salary reductions, with the largest decrease being 252,400 yuan for Zhangyu A’s secretary [3] Demographics - The majority of secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage industry are aged 50 and above, accounting for 56%, while those aged 40-50 make up 31%, and only 2 are aged 30-40 [1] - Educationally, 75% of secretaries hold a bachelor's degree, while 25% have a master's degree [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2024, the total salary of A-share listed company secretaries reached 4.086 billion yuan, with an average annual salary of 754,300 yuan [1] - The low-alcohol beverage industry has 16 listed companies with a total secretary salary of 10.5195 million yuan, averaging 657,500 yuan, which is below the market average [1] Salary Distribution - In the low-alcohol beverage industry, 56% of secretaries earn between 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan, while 13% earn between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan [3] - The highest-paid secretary is from Chongqing Beer, earning 1.3047 million yuan, followed by Yanjing Beer at 1.0516 million yuan, and Zhangyu A at 997,200 yuan [3] - The lowest salary recorded is 140,000 yuan from Mogao Co., followed by 293,300 yuan from *ST Lanhua [3] Salary Changes - Among the companies, five secretaries saw salary increases, with Yanjing Beer’s secretary having the highest increase of 244,300 yuan [3] - Conversely, five secretaries experienced salary reductions, with Zhangyu A's secretary facing the largest decrease of 252,400 yuan [3] Demographics - The majority of secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage industry are aged 50 and above, accounting for 56%, while those aged 40-50 make up 31%, and only 2 are aged 30-40 [1] - Educationally, 75% of secretaries hold a bachelor's degree, while 25% have a master's degree [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2024, the total salary of A-share listed company secretaries reached 4.086 billion yuan, with an average annual salary of 754,300 yuan [1] - The low-alcohol beverage industry has 16 listed companies with a total secretary salary of 10.5195 million yuan, averaging 657,500 yuan, which is below the market average [1] Salary Distribution - In the low-alcohol beverage sector, 56% of secretaries earn between 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan, while 13% earn between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan [3] - The highest-paid secretary is from Chongqing Beer, earning 1.3047 million yuan, followed by Yanjing Beer at 1.0516 million yuan, and Zhangyu A at 997,200 yuan [3] - The lowest salary recorded is 140,000 yuan from Mogao Co., followed by 293,300 yuan from *ST Lanhua [3] Salary Changes - Among the companies, five secretaries saw salary increases, with Yanjing Beer’s secretary having the highest increase of 244,300 yuan [3] - Conversely, five secretaries experienced salary reductions, with Zhangyu A's secretary facing the largest decrease of 252,400 yuan [3] Demographics - The majority of secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage industry are aged 50 and above, accounting for 56%, while those aged 40 to 50 make up 31% [1] - Educationally, 75% of secretaries hold a bachelor's degree, while only 25% have a master's degree [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2024, the total salary of A-share listed company secretaries reached 4.086 billion yuan, with an average annual salary of 754,300 yuan [1] - The low-alcohol beverage industry has 16 listed companies with a total secretary salary of 10.5195 million yuan, averaging 657,500 yuan, which is below the market average [1] Salary Distribution - In the low-alcohol beverage industry, 56% of secretaries earn between 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan, while 13% earn between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan [3] - The highest-paid secretary is from Chongqing Beer, earning 1.3047 million yuan, followed by Yanjing Beer at 1.0516 million yuan, and Zhangyu A at 997,200 yuan [3] - The lowest salary recorded is 140,000 yuan from Mogao Co., followed by 293,300 yuan from *ST Lanhua [3] Salary Changes - Among the companies, five secretaries saw salary increases, with Yanjing Beer's secretary having the highest increase of 244,300 yuan [3] - Conversely, five secretaries experienced salary reductions, with Zhangyu A's secretary facing the largest decrease of 252,400 yuan [3] Demographics - The majority of secretaries in the low-alcohol beverage industry are aged 50 and above, accounting for 56%, while those aged 40-50 make up 31%, and only 2 are aged 30-40 [1] - Educationally, 75% of secretaries hold a bachelor's degree, while 25% have a master's degree [1]