2025 年 11 月 26 日 安琪酵母(600298.SH) 酵母主业稳定增长，海外市场增速亮眼 事件： 公司发布 2025 三季报，2025Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 117.86 亿元，同比 增长 8.01%；实现归母净利润 11.16 亿元，同比增长 17.13%；实现扣 非归母净利润 9.65 亿元，同比增长 15.02%。根据计算，2025Q3 实现 营业收入 38.87 亿元，同比增长 4%；实现归母净利润 3.17 亿元，同 比增长 21%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.23 亿元，同比下降 8.17%。 主业保持稳定增长，海外市场延续高增 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1 1）分产品看，25Q3 酵母及深加工产品/制糖产品/包装类产品分别实 现营收 26.4/2.6/0.7 亿元，同比+2.1%/-17.2%/-33.3%，制糖及包装 类业务剥离导致营收出现一定程度下滑。 2）分渠道看，25Q3 线下/ 线上分别实现营收 26.9/11.9 亿元，同比+8%/-2.1%。 3）分地区看， 25Q3 国内/国外分别实现营收 21.9/16.9 亿元，同比-3.5%/+ ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant reversal on October 30, with the Food ETF (515710) opening lower but then rising to a gain of 0.33% as of the report [1] - Notable stocks in the sector included strong performances from liquor brands, with companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Tangchen Beijian both rising over 4%, and New Dairy rising over 3% [1] - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 130.904 billion yuan for the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with a net profit of 64.626 billion yuan, also reflecting a growth of 6.25% [2][3] Group 2 - Huatai Securities highlighted that the food and beverage sector is currently at a low valuation, making it a potentially good time for investment, with the Food ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.99, which is in the 4.7% percentile of the last decade [3] - Guizhou Moutai's third-quarter revenue reached 39.81 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.35%, indicating stable performance amidst market fluctuations [2][3] - The food and beverage sector is expected to enter a recovery phase as consumer policies from the second quarter begin to wane, with signs of improved supply chain dynamics and industry consolidation [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.786 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.116 billion yuan, up 17.13% year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights that the company's operational quality remains high, with a clear improvement cycle expected. Despite a slowdown in revenue growth in Q3 2025, the long-term outlook remains positive due to cost reductions and a peak in depreciation [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit for the same period was 317 million yuan, reflecting a 21% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 24.43%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower sugar molasses costs [2][8]. - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to reach 16.763 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.3% [4][8]. Market and Product Insights - The company is accelerating the divestment of its sugar and packaging businesses, which contributed to the revenue slowdown in Q3 2025. The revenue from yeast and deep processing products was 2.645 billion yuan, while sugar products saw a decline of 17.03% [2][8]. - The domestic market experienced a slight revenue decline of 3.49% in Q3 2025, while the international market continued to grow at 17.72% [2][8]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 10% for the year, with Q4 2025 anticipated to see a sequential acceleration in revenue [2][8]. - The company is projected to maintain a double-digit revenue growth in the coming years, supported by overseas capacity expansion and channel development [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][25]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 1.378 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 54 million yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, total revenue reached 492 million yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 18 million yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights a stabilization in the large B-end market and a recovery in the small B-end market. The company has seen positive performance from major clients like Haidilao and Hema, while some clients faced challenges due to product gaps. The new sales strategies have shown effectiveness, leading to a narrowing decline in the small B-end sector [2][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in pricing and promotional strategies. The net profit margin for Q3 was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 1.912 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.3%. The net profit is expected to be 75 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.3% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51 times [4][15]. - The financial indicators show a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of 10.4% and 10.6% growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The net profit is expected to rebound significantly in the following years, with growth rates of 33.9% and 26.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32.5 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.291 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.96%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, up 8.53% year-on-year [2][8]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan, marking an 18.11% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 99 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights significant revenue growth driven by improved sales structure and new customer orders, particularly in the Chinese market, which saw a revenue increase of over 20% [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 4.211 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 17.6% in 2024, 8.9% in 2025, and 11.0% in 2026 [4][13]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 325 million yuan, with growth rates of 15.7% in 2024, 8.3% in 2025, and 28.1% in 2026 [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.06 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.15 yuan in 2025 and 1.47 yuan in 2026 [4][13]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the company is experiencing a positive trend in multiple markets, with significant contributions from the Chinese, American, and European regions [8][9]. - The sales structure has improved, leading to a gross margin increase to 30.76% in Q3, up 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from digital system enhancements and operational efficiencies, which are anticipated to support revenue growth and improve profitability [8][9].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to show strength, with the Food ETF (515710) opening in positive territory and rising by 0.48% as of the report [1] - Major consumer goods stocks are leading the gains, with notable performances from liquor stocks, including a more than 4% increase in Jindaiwei and over 3% in Guyue Longshan [1] - The Food ETF has seen significant capital inflow, with a net subscription of 32.91 million yuan over the last five trading days and over 180 million yuan in total over the past 20 trading days [1][5] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's general manager, Wang Li, reported a stable market for Moutai's sauce-flavored liquor from June to August, with a significant recovery in sales in September, particularly for Moutai 1935 [3] - Guizhou Moutai is the second-largest holding in the Food ETF (515710), accounting for 14.61% of the fund's assets as of the second quarter of 2025 [3][4] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector remains low, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.58, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Guoxin Securities are optimistic about the food and beverage sector, highlighting its characteristics of low base, low holdings, and low expectations, which could lead to price increases [5] - CITIC Construction pointed out that government policies promoting quality development could benefit the low-end liquor and dining chains, with Moutai's sales showing signs of recovery [5] - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, with a significant portion of its holdings in leading high-end liquor stocks and other beverage segments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the Food ETF (515710) showing an increase of 0.32% as of October 15, 2023, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Food ETF (515710) has been trading positively, with a price increase of 0.32% during the day [1][2]. - Key stocks in the consumer goods sector have shown significant gains, with Jin Dawei rising nearly 8%, and other companies like Yan Jin Pu Zi and Cheng De Lu Lu increasing over 5% [1][3]. - Major liquor brands also performed well, with Luzhou Laojiao up over 1% and other leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showing slight increases [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The recent announcement of a 600 million yuan investment project in sauce-flavored liquor in Guizhou is seen as a strategic move to enhance the production capacity and cultural display in the region, which could benefit the local industry [3]. - Analysts suggest that the food and beverage sector is currently undervalued, with the Food ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.44, indicating a good opportunity for long-term investment [3][4]. - The sector is characterized by low expectations and low holdings, suggesting that any changes in supply and demand could lead to significant price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Securities firms are optimistic about the food and beverage sector, highlighting that the current low base and potential for recovery could lead to a positive market environment [4]. - The focus is on companies with strong fundamentals, particularly in the snack, beverage, and frozen food segments, which are expected to report high growth in their upcoming quarterly results [4][5]. - The Food ETF is recommended as a core asset for investors looking to gain exposure to the food and beverage sector, with a significant portion of its holdings in leading liquor brands and other food-related stocks [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xianle Health, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][22]. Core Views - Xianle Health's H1 2025 performance shows steady growth, with total revenue reaching 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 161 million yuan, up 4.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its BFPC business, which is currently underperforming, while also expanding into high-potential segments such as probiotics and anti-aging products [2][7]. - The report highlights the resilience of the Americas market and the successful expansion of new retail clients in China, contributing to overall revenue growth [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 161 million yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 shows projected revenues of 4.59 billion yuan in 2025, 5.09 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.56 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 352 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 524 million yuan respectively [2][11]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin of 33.3% for Q2 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Xianle Health is actively pursuing new consumer markets, with a reported 40% growth in new retail clients in H1 2025 [2][7]. - The company plans to seek investment or divestment opportunities for its underperforming BFPC business, which is expected to enhance overall profitability and market competitiveness [2][7]. - The introduction of AI tools in production and R&D is aimed at improving efficiency and strengthening long-term competitive capabilities [2][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue decline has narrowed, and cost control has improved performance. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.532 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 23.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 737 million CNY, down 17.34% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.741 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 11.51%, but a significant increase in net profit by 71.44% year-on-year [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Half-Year Report**: - Operating revenue: 3.532 billion CNY, down 23.43% YoY - Net profit: 737 million CNY, down 17.34% YoY - Q2 revenue: 1.741 billion CNY, down 11.51% YoY - Q2 net profit: 282 million CNY, up 71.44% YoY [1][7] - **Financial Projections**: - 2025E total revenue: 6.271 billion CNY, down 8.3% YoY - 2025E net profit: 811 million CNY, up 24.3% YoY - EPS for 2025E: 0.48 CNY [2][7]. Sales and Cost Management - The company has seen a significant reduction in sales expense ratio, which decreased by 11 percentage points to 39.6% in Q2 2025. This improvement is attributed to efficient spending and a shift towards higher-margin products [7][8]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 68.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of premium products and improved online sales channel performance [7][8]. Market Outlook - The company plans to increase investment in the second half of 2025, with expectations for revenue to gradually improve. The strategy includes launching new products in key categories and focusing resources on profitable online channels [7][8]. - Despite a challenging external consumption environment, the company is expected to maintain a rational approach to spending, leading to a modest decline in annual revenue [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company continues to face revenue pressure, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 32% in Q1 2025. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a reduction in foot traffic in offline channels [6][7]. - The net profit margin decline has narrowed, indicating potential operational improvements as cost control measures take effect. The company is expected to gradually recover as sales increase and the base effects diminish [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to be 6,838 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 7,172 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 653 million CNY, with a significant increase to 866 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.7% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28 in 2024 to 21 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings improve [2]. Operational Insights - **Sales Channels**: - Online sales have shown a slight recovery, while offline sales continue to struggle, with declines of 15.78% and 42.62% respectively in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: - The company has managed to reduce its sales expense ratio to 30.3%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in marketing expenditures [6][7]. - **Product Performance**: - The main brand and other product lines have experienced varying revenue impacts, with the domestic main brand seeing a decline of 36.37% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is implementing strategies to attract consumers back to offline channels through promotions and product sampling, while also focusing on maintaining profitability in online sales [6][7]. - The overall expectation is for gradual operational recovery starting from Q2 2025 as the company continues to execute its strategic adjustments [6][7].