首当其冲的是75万联邦雇员，简直是"躺着中枪"。有的人被迫停薪休假，房贷车贷压得喘不过气；有的人比如空中交通管制员，得无薪上班还 得扛着压力。更糟的是，专利局已经计划裁员1%，白宫还放话可能要大规模裁员，这哪是停摆，分明是砸人家饭碗啊。想起楼下开餐馆的大 叔说过，"一分钱难倒英雄汉"，这些雇员月底拿不到工资，家里的菜篮子都得空半截。 说到底，两党这出"拉锯战"更像场闹剧。共和党说民主党添乱，民主党骂共和党不负责，可谁都没真正盯着民生疾苦。政府就像个大家长，本 该好好管家，结果家长们吵得面红耳赤，把孩子扔在一边饿肚子。 希望两党能早点"各退一步海阔天空"，别让停摆变成"持久战"。毕竟政治归政治，饭碗、旅程、安全这些实实在在的日子，才是老百姓最该被 接住的东西啊。 比雇员更窝火的是游客们。华盛顿纪念碑、自由钟这些景点全关了门，法国来的马蒂娜夫妇兴冲冲来玩，结果只能对着关门告示叹气。有个学 校旅行团特意来国会参观，直接吃了"闭门羹"，孩子们的失望全写在脸上。史密森学会的博物馆靠去年的余钱撑到6号，之后也得歇业，这趟 美国之行算是留下了遗憾。 受牵连的还有天上飞的航班。联邦航空局1.1万人停薪休假，剩下的管制员本来就 ...

美国劳动力市场的疲态，正因一场史无前例的政府关门而雪上加霜，或迫使美联储在数据中断的情况下 降息。 特朗普政府正利用政府关门危机推进第二轮大规模联邦雇员裁减计划，这一策略被视为马斯克政府效率 部门(DOGE)失败后的重新尝试。由于招聘冻结、裁员和自愿离职，政府预计今年年底联邦雇员人数将 减少数十万。 与此同时，政府关门造成关键经济数据延期发布，包括9月非农就业报告，以及CPI通胀数据。分析师 警告，随着私人部门9月就业岗位减少3.2万个，叠加政府雇员大规模离职，美国就业市场面临进一步恶 化风险。在缺乏基准数据的情况下，美联储面临更大的降息压力。 Vought接棒马斯克，开启DOGE 2.0 数十万联邦雇员或被裁减 特朗普政府的延迟离职计划（Deferred Resignation Plan）本周进入关键节点，约有10万名联邦雇员从政 府工资单上被裁。 据美国人事管理办公室的数据，约15.4万名联邦雇员接受了这一计划，其中三分之二的员工薪酬和福利 支付到9月30日财政年度结束。该计划允许联邦雇员离职后继续领取数月薪酬和福利。 除此之外，政府还实施了招聘冻结、强制裁员和其他自愿离职项目。总体而言，特朗普政府预计今 ...

据央视新闻，因美国国会参议院否决临时拨款法案，美国联邦政府自1日起进入"停摆"。受政府"关门"影响，约75万名联邦雇员被迫停薪休 假，多项公共服务陷入停滞，国家公园、航空系统均受到冲击。不少游客因行程被打乱而直呼"失望"。 雇员停薪 恐遭裁员 先前就有业内人士预计，若美国联邦政府长时间"停摆"，多处景点可能会关闭，从而扰乱游客旅行计划。 据路透社报道，美国联邦政府"关门"导致约75万名联邦雇员被迫停薪休假，而不能离岗的军队及边境巡逻人员等其他职员暂时"无薪上 班"。 美国副总统万斯1日警告，如果联邦政府"停摆"持续时间较长，可能会引发裁员。白宫发言人莱维特则说，联邦政府裁员"很可能"发生， 且"很快"会发生。 根据路透社看到的内部信件，美国商务部下属专利与商标办公室计划在其1.4万名员工中裁减1%。 因共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等方面的分歧，美国国会参议院9月30日未能在政府资金耗尽前通过新的临时拨款法案。美东时间10 月1日零时起，联邦政府时隔近七年再次"停摆"。两党为此互相推诿责任。 景点关闭 游客扑空 据法新社报道，一个兴冲冲到华盛顿参观国会的学校旅行团1日就吃了"闭门羹"，因美国政府"停摆"，其 ...

当地时间9月29日，美国两党又谈崩了！虽然共和党和民主党经常意见相左，但这次不同，涉及美国新一财年的预算划拨进度，谈崩意味着美国政府可能无 钱可花，最快10月初陷入"停摆"。 美国实施严格的三权分立制度，花钱的权力属于行政部门，批准和划拨预算却是国会的职责，国会主要由两党议员组成，预算案能否通过得投票决定。 美国的财年与自然年不同，从上年10月1日开始至第二年9月30日结束，这就导致每年9月两党都要为了预算吵上一架，一旦无法达成统一意见，新财年的预 算划拨不下来，美国政府便会"停摆"，直到预算案通过为止。 不出所料，这一美国的传统节目今年继续保留，距离邦政府资金耗尽只剩下不到两天的时间，两党还在吵架。民主党希望延长到期的《平价医疗法案》补 贴，给医保拨更多的钱；共和党主打省钱，要削减对医保的补助。 两边各不相让，将在美东时间9月30日重新投票，如果预算案依然未通过，那么将从当晚开始正式"停摆"。 美国政府"停摆"会不会影响美联储的运行，从而导致10月底的FOMC会议无法按时召开，最终引发几乎必然发生的10月降息"流产"呢？我们从多个维度逐 步分析。 第一，美联储计划10月底开会，在潜在的"停摆"周期内。 作为 ...

美国联邦政府资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜耗尽，政府再次陷入停摆危机。美国国会两党领导人29日 在会见特朗普后纷纷对媒体表示，双方存在巨大分歧，谈判进展甚微。 当地时间9月26日，美国劳工部发布应急计划称，正在寻求确保劳工部各机构能够在出现停摆时有序暂 停计划和运营，同时继续开展在停摆期间获准继续进行的有限活动。美国劳工部称，若政府陷入停摆， 劳工部将不会发布预计本周公布的关键就业报告和其他数据，这些报告将提供有关经济走向的重要线 索，并在美联储政策制定者10月份下次会议之前提供信息。 ...

【导读】 特朗普通知国会计划撤销数十亿美元的外援资金 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，简单关注一下特朗普的新消息。 特朗普绕过国会批准，拟削减49亿美元对外援助 这场斗争已经使特朗普自己的党派分裂，尤其是在参议院，南达科他州的共和党人迈克·朗兹和缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯担心，这可能会破坏 长期以来的权力划分理解，即谁拥有"掌控财政"的权力。 参议院拨款委员会主席苏珊·柯林斯在声明中表示： "任何在未经国会批准的情况下撤销已拨款的资金，都是对法律的明显违反。" 通过利用1974年法律中关于总统必须支出国会批准资金的灰色地带，白宫希望通过利用时间表来为自己争取优势。《拨款控制法案》允许 总统在国会考虑撤销提案期间临时冻结支出45天。此类撤销曾是常见做法，特朗普在今年复兴了这一做法，要求国会取消了90亿美元的公 共广播、外援和全球健康项目支出。 但如果提案出现在财政年度的最后几周，白宫的这一举动将挑战了对 《拨款控制法案》 的通常理解。 根据该法案，白宫可以暂停支出45 天，同时请求国会通过一项撤销这笔资金的措施。如果国会在45天后没有采取行动，这笔钱就必须被发放。白宫预算主管 沃斯 长期以来一 直表示，他想使用他所 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market data has been significantly revised downwards, with a total of 258,000 jobs disappearing from the non-farm payrolls over two months, indicating a potential systemic issue with the accuracy of employment statistics [2][4] - The U.S. government has a history of releasing favorable employment data to boost market confidence, only to later revise these figures downward, which has raised concerns about the integrity of the data [4][6] - The recent employment data revisions have led to negative implications for President Trump's administration, as he faces pressure to address the weak job numbers and has called for the dismissal of key economic officials [4][6] Group 2 - The job growth reported in June, which showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, was misleading as the majority of new positions were in government, education, and healthcare, while retail and manufacturing sectors showed little to no growth [6][7] - The current economic situation in the U.S. presents a dilemma for monetary policy, where both raising and lowering interest rates could lead to significant risks for the economy [6] - In the context of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the U.S. appears anxious and is employing various strategies, while China maintains a stable and patient approach, suggesting a potential delay tactic from the Chinese side [7]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating extreme levels of trade protectionism [1] - The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, will affect 69 trading partners, with 40 countries facing a 15% tariff rate [3] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Increases - The tariffs are expected to increase average household spending in the U.S. by $2,400 by 2025, with significant impacts on clothing prices, which may rise by 38% [3] - Short-term price increases for consumer goods are anticipated, with footwear prices potentially increasing by 40% [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4] - Employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] - The weak employment report has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, raising expectations from 40% to 63% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion due to the new tariffs [5] - European stock markets also fell sharply, with major indices dropping nearly 3% in France [5] - Increased market volatility led to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold surging by 2.22% to surpass $3,360 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of Hengyang City in Hunan Province to reduce bureaucratic burdens on grassroots governance, allowing local officials to focus more on serving the community rather than preparing for inspections [1][2][3]. Group 1: Measures Taken - Hengyang's Discipline Inspection and Supervision Commission has implemented a "no-disturbance inspection" mechanism to alleviate the pressures of frequent inspections on grassroots officials [1]. - The city has streamlined assessment requirements, eliminating city-level evaluations for village and town levels, and established a comprehensive assessment system led by annual evaluations [2]. - A total of 36 unnecessary certification requirements for village-level operations have been eliminated, and over 150,000 non-compliant signs and regulations have been cleared from 2,779 villages and communities [2]. Group 2: Impact on Local Governance - The reduction in inspections has allowed local officials to dedicate more time to public welfare projects, as expressed by local leaders [2]. - The city has addressed issues of excessive meeting sizes and unreasonable task assignments, correcting 10 such problems and investigating 91 cases of formalism this year [2]. - The initiative has led to a significant improvement in local governance, with over 13,400 urgent community issues resolved [4]. Group 3: Support for Grassroots Officials - The city has combined the reduction of formalism with incentives for accountability, ensuring that officials are encouraged to act responsibly while being protected from false accusations [3]. - A total of 1,863 officials and technical specialists have been deployed to support grassroots efforts, fostering local talent and enhancing community capabilities [4]. - The transformation from passive compliance to proactive engagement has been emphasized, with local officials now focusing on practical work rather than merely preparing for inspections [4].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Justice released the "Administrative Review Work White Paper (2024)", highlighting significant trends in administrative disputes and resolutions in China [1][2]. Group 1: Administrative Review Statistics - The number of new administrative review cases received by various levels of administrative review agencies reached 749,600 in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 94.7%, which is 2.5 times the number of first-instance administrative cases in courts [2] - The total number of concluded administrative review cases was 641,000, reflecting an 82.1% year-on-year growth [2] - Administrative review cases are predominantly concentrated in economically developed provinces, with 17 provinces receiving over 10,000 cases, accounting for more than 83.2% of the total [2] Group 2: Areas of High Administrative Disputes - The most frequent areas of administrative disputes are market regulation and public security, with the top five categories of cases being: market regulation (163,000 cases, 29.5%), public security (125,000 cases, 22.6%), natural resources (39,000 cases, 7.1%), human resources and social security (27,000 cases, 4.9%), and financial supervision (26,000 cases, 4.7%) [3][4] - In terms of administrative behavior, the most common cases involve complaint handling (161,000 cases, 29.2%), administrative penalties (130,000 cases, 23.5%), government information disclosure (105,000 cases, 19.1%), administrative inaction (48,000 cases, 8.7%), and administrative confirmation (22,000 cases, 4.0%) [3] Group 3: Resolution and Correction Rates - The direct correction rate for administrative reviews was reported at 12.1%, with 58,000 cases corrected through various means such as changes, cancellations, and confirmations of illegality [6] - A total of 168,000 cases were resolved through mediation and reconciliation, achieving a settlement rate of 26.3% [4] - After administrative review, 90.3% of cases did not proceed to litigation or petition processes, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5 percentage points in case resolution rates [4] Group 4: Focus on Enterprise-related Law Enforcement - Administrative review agencies have intensified efforts to supervise unlawful and improper law enforcement actions affecting enterprises, correcting over 6,500 such cases [5] - Specific instances include the correction of wrongful administrative penalties that saved enterprises over 10 million yuan [5] - The white paper emphasizes the importance of maintaining consistency in legal policies to support the construction of a unified market [5]