芳烃市场周报： 走势分化，供需结构主导 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2026年1月5日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：PX外盘价格连续上行，期现货价格涨至较高位，基差随着期货端快速上涨连续走扩。中石化1月PX挂牌价格大幅上调至7500元/吨，12月 中石化PX结算价格7020元/吨。成本端主要影响因素仍是地缘消息与OPEC+产量政策，整体国际油价延续弱势，中长期过剩压力难改，短期成本 端支撑一般，地缘消息短期影响仍存。 • 供给：周内福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机，本周重启尚未满负荷运行，天津石化12月23日附近停机。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25 日停机检修，预计检修两个月。本周PX产量为74.14万吨，环比-0.52%。国内PX周均产能利用率88.4%，环比-0.46%。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维 持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA周均产能利用率至74.2%，环比+0.35%，同比-8.35%。本周PTA产能利用率窄 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：纯苯库存压制、苯乙烯供需双弱 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：下游己内酰胺生产利润-330 元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-952 元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润 611 元/吨（-237），己二酸生产利润-1075 元/吨 （+0）。己内酰胺开工率 74.57%（-4.58%），苯酚开工率 79.50%（-2.50%）， 苯胺开工率 75.94%（-1.29%），己二酸开工率 59.20%（-0.80%）。 纯苯因关税问题，韩国对中国纯苯出口量增加，进口集中到货，港口库存压 力明显，但后续累库会逐步放缓，目前呈现供强需弱的格局。 苯乙烯方面：12 月 5 日至 11 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 33.88 万吨， 较上期-1.05%；工厂产能利用率 68.11%，环比-0.74%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 27.24 万吨，环比-0.73%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.60 万吨，环比上周 -0.11%。截至 12 月 8 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 14.68 万吨，环比上周-8.59%； 华南港口库存在 2.3 万吨，环比上 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：纯苯库存压制、苯乙烯供需双弱 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：下游己内酰胺生产利润-330 元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-952 元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润 611 元/吨（-237），己二酸生产利润-1075 元/吨 （+0）。己内酰胺开工率 74.57%（-4.58%），苯酚开工率 79.50%（-2.50%）， 苯胺开工率 75.94%（-1.29%），己二酸开工率 59.20%（-0.80%）。 纯苯因关税问题，韩国对中国纯苯出口量增加，进口集中到货，港口库存压 力明显，但后续累库会逐步放缓，目前呈现供强需弱的格局。 苯乙烯方面：12 月 5 日至 11 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 33.88 万吨， 较上期-1.05%；工厂产能利用率 68.11%，环比-0.74%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 27.24 万吨，环比-0.73%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.60 万吨，环比上周 -0.11%。截至 12 月 8 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 14.68 万吨，环比上周-8.59%； 华南港口库存在 2.3 万吨，环比上 ...

芳烃年报（PX、纯苯、苯乙烯）2025 年 12 月 芳烃年报 2025-12 芳烃：供需博弈，利润分化 （摘要） 关注：宏观与关税消息、地缘问题、三苯出口趋势、检修计划 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 姜周曦琳 Email: jiangzhouxilin@ftol.com.cn 从业资格证号: F03114700 投资咨询证号： Z0022394 摘要： PX：2025 年 PX 市场行情整体呈现"前低后稳、供需趋紧"的特征。上 半年价格受美国加征关税、伊以地缘局势等多重因素影响，下半年主要回 归偏强基本面，PX 产能增速放缓，下游聚酯需求持续释放，社会库存连续 下降，市场由年初的高库存逐步转向紧平衡状态，支撑价格低位反弹。 纯苯：纯苯期货于 2025 年 7 月上市，上市初期受 2026 年春季检修季 预期推动，价格有所上涨，随后因现货供需宽松、港口高库存及进口压力 加大而连续下跌至年末。全年海内外价格中枢显著下移，亚洲市场受美国 关税政策影响，韩国货源转向中国，加剧国内供应压力。尽管下游苯乙烯 需求仍有增长，但纯苯产能扩张较快，行业利润大幅收窄，四季度毛利率 触及历史低 ...

Report Structure and Content Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Not explicitly stated, but the report comprehensively analyzes the supply - demand situations of pure benzene and styrene, including historical and future trends 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Part I: Pure Benzene/Styrene Market Review - Reviews the historical and 2025 market conditions of pure benzene and styrene, and analyzes futures trading volume and open interest [5] Part II: Cost - side Market Review and Outlook - Not elaborated in the provided text Part III: Pure Benzene Supply Analysis - The expected growth rate of pure benzene production capacity will slow down - The supply of pure benzene will increase steadily - The import volume of pure benzene will remain at a high level [5] Part IV: Pure Benzene Demand Analysis - The growth rate of downstream production capacity is expected to slow down - The demand for pure benzene will continue to grow slightly [5] Part V: Styrene Supply Analysis - Styrene investment plans are decreasing, and the industry's production capacity growth rate may slow down - The supply pressure of styrene may be relieved - Analyzes styrene plant profit and basis - Styrene imports have shrunk to a low level, and exports are growing slowly [5] Part VI: Styrene Downstream Demand Analysis - The growth rate of terminal demand has slowed down - The EPS industry faces high inventory pressure and squeezed profits - The PS production capacity is gradually being released, and prices are under pressure - There is a large amount of new ABS production capacity, and the supply pressure remains high [5] Part VII: Styrene Port Inventory Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text Part VIII: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides supply - demand balance sheet forecasts for pure benzene and styrene [11] Part IX: Technical Analysis and Seasonal Trends - Conducts technical analysis and seasonal trend analysis on styrene [5] Part X: Option Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text Part XI: Summary and Operation Suggestions - Not elaborated in the provided text Part XII: Industry - related Stocks - Lists some industry - related stocks and their closing prices and annual price changes [11][104] 4. New Device Production and Investment Plan Summary Pure Benzene New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2026, multiple pure benzene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2430,000 tons [30] - From 2025 - 2026, some hydrogenated benzene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 371,000 tons [31] Pure Benzene Downstream New Device Production and Investment Plan (Excluding Styrene) - In 2025, new devices of multiple pure benzene downstream industries (excluding styrene) are put into operation, with a total production capacity of about 2,262,000 tons [40][41] Styrene New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, multiple styrene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 4160,000 tons [47][48][69] EPS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some EPS production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2160,000 tons [74] PS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some PS production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2,935,000 tons [81] ABS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some ABS production devices are planned to be put into operation, but the specific total production capacity is not clearly summarized in a unified manner [5] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Data Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2016 - 2026E, it shows the data of the beginning inventory, production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes of pure benzene [91] Styrene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - For 2025E and 2026E, it shows the data of the beginning inventory, production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes of styrene [92] 6. Price Fluctuation Data - Provides the monthly price change rates of pure benzene and styrene from 2013 - 2025 [97][99] 7. Industry - related Stocks - Lists the stocks of companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Huajin Co., Ltd., Sinopec, PetroChina, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, along with their closing prices and annual price changes [11][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market is expected to see its processing fees and absolute prices continue to run strongly, with attention on cost - side support and potential impacts from India's BIS certification and long - term contract prices [4]. - The pure benzene market is expected to have a relatively loose supply, and it will be in a low - level oscillation, with focus on exports and potential changes in South Korean disproportionation plants [5]. - The styrene market is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, following cost - side fluctuations, and future trends depend on consumption policies and macro - news [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are in a low - level oscillation, with weak support. Naphtha price is $557, and PX CFR price is $829. Sinopec's December PX listed price is 6,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last month [4]. - **Supply**: This week's PX output is 752,600 tons, a 0.6% increase from last week. The domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.74%, up 0.53%. Some plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.29%, down 1.89% from last week and 6.74% year - on - year [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: PX fundamentals are strong due to continuous de - stocking, but the "peak season" failed to meet expectations. It is expected to run strongly if there are no unexpected cost - side disturbances [4]. Pure Benzene Market - **Concerns**: Geopolitical situation and US - South Korea arbitrage window [5]. - **Futures and Spot**: The pure benzene futures contract has rebounded slightly, and the basis difference between futures and spot has widened. The market is under cost - side pressure [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week's output is 446,700 tons, a 1.67% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67%, down 1.31%. Supply exceeds demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 164,000 tons, with significant inventory accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Most downstream products are in a loss, but some are expected to improve. Disproportionation plants' losses are increasing [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: New capacities have led to increased domestic output, and the overall supply is expected to be loose, with the market in a low - level oscillation [5]. Styrene Market - **Futures and Spot Performance**: The styrene futures contract has rebounded, but cost - side weakness suppresses prices. Spot prices have declined [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: As of November 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants is - 159 yuan/ton, with a reduced loss [6]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week's styrene output is 334,700 tons, a 2.39% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 67.29%, down 1.66% [6]. - **Downstream**: ABS, PS, EPS, and UPR have increased output, but the overall industry profitability is not good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the port inventory in Jiangsu has increased, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation [6]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Styrene is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation after the holiday has limited impact on high port inventories [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is significantly affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and refined oil. The gasoline crack spread has changed from strong to weak, weakening the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease due to overseas plant shutdowns and domestic factory load - reduction plans, but the weakening cost due to falling oil prices restricts price increases. The market is likely to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term [2]. - The styrene market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new production capacity has been gradually absorbed, and supply pressure is moderately stable. Demand has a certain boost from exports. However, the weakening cost leads to price oscillations. In the short term, styrene is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and the market direction depends on export continuity and cost stability [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On November 26, the styrene main contract closed up 1.35% at 6,533 yuan/ton with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.96% at 5,463 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,330 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On November 26, Brent crude oil closed at $58.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $61.8/barrel (-$0.9/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization had a slight month - on - month change. Weekly styrene output was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The market is affected by crude oil and refined oil fluctuations. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease, but the weakening cost restricts price increases. The market is likely to oscillate weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new capacity has been absorbed, and exports may support demand. However, the weakening cost leads to oscillations. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations in the short term [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and pure benzene futures prices increased on November 26, while styrene spot prices decreased. Crude oil prices decreased [5]. - **Output and Inventory**: Styrene and pure benzene production decreased slightly. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries increased, while that of some decreased [7]. 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement with the IAEA. - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][11][20]

芳烃市场周报： 成本端弱势延续，调油仍有驱动 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年11月21日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，支撑偏弱，石脑油价格当前573美元，PXCFR价格832美元。中石化11月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至6800元/吨，10月 中石化PX结算价格6620元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.81万吨，环比上周-0.41%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比上周-0.36%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率79.38%，环 比-0.33%。上海石化60万吨装置检修重启，中化泉州PX装置故障，目前运行负荷50%。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机。PX工厂的生产 积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率74.29%，环比-1.89%，同比-6.74%。周内西南及华东装置检修，供应端持续缩量，本周期国内PTA整体产能利用 ...

Report Title - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Blending Logic Boosts Aromatic Hydrocarbon Prices (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] Report Date and Author - Date: November 14, 2025 - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PX market: Despite a strong supply-demand situation due to continuous inventory reduction, the peak season expectation has failed. However, with the improvement of downstream demand and supply tightening in November, PX processing fees and absolute prices are expected to remain strong [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new production capacity and overseas supply surplus, the price is under pressure. But due to the relatively low current price and downstream demand support, the short - term decline space is limited. The market still expects inventory accumulation and supply - demand contradictions remain [4]. - Styrene market: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is still poor. The weak fundamentals are difficult to change, and it will fluctuate at a low level [5][6]. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The price of naphtha is $569, and the PX CFR price is $825. Sinopec's PX listed price in November is slightly increased to 6,800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 758,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. Some plants are under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37% [3]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The PX market is expected to have a strong performance in the medium - long term if there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract 2603 rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and spot widened. The arbitrage window from Shandong to East China is partially open [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly production is 454,300 tons, an increase of 3.77%. The capacity utilization rate is 77.98%, an increase of 2.83%. The supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.61% and a year - on - year increase of 7.62%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the next period [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in loss, while aniline still has profit and it slightly expands [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The short - term decline space is limited, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change. The market is affected by factors such as US supply reduction and gasoline price increase [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract rebounded this week. The spot price in East China is 6,405 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China is - 451 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Capacity Utilization**: The production of styrene plants in China is 344,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.45%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [5]. - **Downstream**: The output of ABS, PS, and SBR increased, while the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased. The overall demand for styrene slightly decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 174,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The commodity inventory is 101,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.29% [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is poor, and the weak fundamentals are difficult to change [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand side of pure benzene and styrene lacks upward drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene lacks upward momentum [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - **Pure Benzene Data**: The report presents data on pure benzene prices (including domestic and foreign markets), spreads,开工 rates (petroleum benzene, hydrogenated benzene), downstream weighted开工 loads and profits, port inventories, and import volumes from 2019 - 2025. For example, in 2025, the monthly pure benzene production ranges from 157.81 to 197.61 million tons, and the monthly import volume is around 40 - 50 million tons [12][15][33]. - **Styrene Data**: It shows styrene prices, price spreads,开工 rates, production profits, port and enterprise inventories, and downstream开工 rates and profits. The styrene production in 2025 ranges from 136.85 to 163.62 million tons, and the monthly import volume varies [37][41][60]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Data on the开工 rates, production profits, and inventories of downstream products such as CPL, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are provided. For instance, the CPL开工 rate in 2025 is between 55% - 105% [21][23][27]. - **Balance Sheets**: Pure benzene and styrene balance sheets from January to December 2025 are presented, showing production, import, demand, and supply - demand differences. For example, the supply - demand difference of pure benzene in October 2025 is 0.05 million tons, and that of styrene is 2.05 million tons [33][60]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Related Data**: Data on automobile production and export growth rates, and real - estate construction, new construction, sales, and completion area cumulative year - on - year growth rates are provided. For example, the automobile production and export data show trends from 0 - 3500 units with corresponding growth rates, and the real - estate data show cumulative year - on - year growth rates from - 100% - 100% [74].