Group 1 - Several Japanese films, including "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work," have announced delays in their release, raising concerns about the impact on cultural exchange projects between China and Japan [3] - The film "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" had a strong initial box office performance, earning 87.5 million RMB in its opening weekend, but is now facing potential delays in its release [3] - The Shanghai International Comedy Festival's "Yoshimoto Comedy Special" has been canceled due to force majeure, highlighting the broader impact on Japanese entertainment events [3] Group 2 - The Japanese IP market is experiencing significant volatility, with companies relying heavily on Japanese IP for revenue facing potential risks, as seen in the case of brands like Blokus, where over 53.1% of revenue comes from Japanese IP [7] - Experts suggest that companies should reduce short-term reliance on Japanese IP and shift towards domestic or original IP to mitigate risks, with examples of companies like Shifeng Culture pivoting to local IPs [7] - Some derivative product companies report limited immediate impact, as their main IPs are not primarily Japanese, indicating a potential buffer against the current disruptions [8] Group 3 - The gaming industry and concert economy may also be affected, as some games rely on Japanese IP licenses, and events featuring Japanese virtual idols could face challenges [8]

Core Viewpoint - Recent delays in the release of Japanese films and cancellations of performances have raised concerns about the impact on cultural exchange projects between China and Japan, affecting various sectors of the entertainment industry [3][4]. Film and Performance Impact - Several Japanese films, including "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work," have announced delays in their release. Some cinemas have confirmed these reports [6]. - The anticipated film "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" may also face a delay in its release, although some cinemas have not received official confirmation [6]. - The Shanghai International Comedy Festival's "Yoshimoto Comedy Special" has been canceled due to force majeure, highlighting the impact on live performances [7]. Broader Industry Effects - The entertainment industry, including Japanese films, performances, and related IP products, is experiencing noticeable fluctuations [4]. - Companies relying heavily on Japanese IPs, such as Budding Blocks, report that over 53.1% of their revenue comes from Japanese IP products. The withdrawal of Japanese films may significantly impact these companies [11]. - Experts suggest that companies should reduce short-term reliance on Japanese IPs and pivot towards domestic or original IPs to mitigate risks. For instance, companies like Shifeng Culture are shifting focus to domestic IPs [11]. IP Cooperation and Risk Management - The article emphasizes the need for companies to expand their IP cooperation to mitigate risks associated with reliance on Japanese IPs. This includes exploring collaborations with IPs from other regions such as Europe and the US [12]. - The gaming industry and concert economy may also face challenges due to the reliance on Japanese IPs, with potential impacts on revenue streams from games featuring Japanese characters and virtual idol concerts [12].

企业需减少对日本IP的短期依赖，加速转向国产或原创IP。 近日，多部原定上映的日本电影被证实暂缓上映。同时，部分日本喜剧亦因不可抗力取消，引发市场对中日文化交流项目连锁反应的关 注。 目前，日系电影、演出、IP衍生品及游戏等泛文娱产业已显露波动和影响。 电影撤档，演出取消 近日，有消息称，原定近期上映的日本电影《蜡笔小新：炽热的春日部舞者们》《工作细胞》均宣布暂缓上映。第一财经记者以消费者 身份咨询多家影院，上海市昌里路大光明丽星vip影城和合生汇中影国际影城的工作人员均表示上述消息属实。 外交部日前发布出行提醒：今年以来，日本社会治安不靖，针对中国公民违法犯罪案件多发，发生多起在日中国公民遇袭事件，部分案 件迄未侦破，中国公民在日本安全环境持续恶化。近日，日本领导人公然发表露骨挑衅言论，严重恶化中日人员交流氛围，给在日中国 公民人身和生命安全带来重大风险。 应扩大IP合作范围抵御风险 还有传言称，《鬼灭之刃：无限城篇 第一章 猗窝座再袭》将在20日之后暂停密钥。不过，部分影院工作人员表示暂未收到消息。该影片 上映之初曾被寄予厚望，上映首周末IMAX票房表现持续强劲，"斩"获8750万人民币，并以1%的银幕数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. Some planning contents may have medium - to long - term impacts on major asset classes. For example, strategic positions of science, technology, and emerging industries are strengthened; there are impacts on consumption, investment, anti - involution, macro - economic policies, financial markets, RMB internationalization, and supply chain security [9][10]. - For different asset classes: - Equity index: The market is expected to consolidate at the end of the year and has an offensive window before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [2]. - Government bonds: The short - term impact is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias in November and December [2]. - Commodities: The demand - pull effect will diverge, with new energy - related demand growth likely to benefit more [3]. - Energy transition and carbon neutrality: Focus on the shift between traditional and new energy sources, and carbon prices may fluctuate upward [3]. - Technological self - reliance and advanced manufacturing: Sectors related to new - quality productive forces are expected to maintain rapid growth [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Economy - On October 28, the Proposals and the Explanation were released. The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. In terms of structure, compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline, the importance of opening - up and social welfare protection chapters has increased. Digital development is incorporated into the science and technology chapter, new - type urbanization is merged into regional economic layout, and two other chapters are consolidated into Part III [8][9]. - Qualitative planning is made for the next five - year key tasks, with quantitative targets and detailed arrangements to be determined in the Plan Outline. Some planning contents may impact major asset classes: - Science, technology, and emerging industries: Stocks and related commodities in the technology sector may benefit as key technological fields are expected to attract more capital and real demand [10]. - Consumption: "Vigorously boost consumption" may lead to relaxed restrictions on real estate and vehicle purchases, benefiting related stocks and commodities [12]. - Investment: The proportion of construction - related demand in commodities may decline, while products related to "a better life" may have incremental demand [12]. - Anti - involution: Policy attention on key sectors' prices will continue, curbing disorderly competition and regulating local government investment - promotion practices [13]. - Macroeconomic policy: The pricing logic of refined oil products may change due to potential consumption tax reform [13]. - Financial markets: The equity market will focus more on shareholder returns, and the futures and derivatives markets may enter a new development stage [13]. - RMB internationalization: The central level of RMB exchange rate volatility may decline [14]. - Supply chain security: Certain strategic minerals may see incremental demand [14]. 3.2 Equity Index - The equity market has fully priced in short - term policy positives, and the medium - term upward trend is consolidated. Adopt a long - term perspective with short - term tactical operations, focusing on four policy themes: - Stabilize growth: Expect further strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustments [15][16]. - Manufacturing and technology: Emphasize advanced manufacturing and self - reliance, highlighting emerging and future industries and key fields [17]. - Optimize traditional industries: Require major cyclical industries to enhance their position and competitiveness, which may increase leading enterprises' market share [18]. - Boost domestic demand: Focus on people's livelihood, but the shift to consumption - driven growth takes time. The stock market is expected to be optimistic before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [19][20]. 3.3 China's Government Bonds - The Proposals convey a medium - to long - term policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" with high - quality development as the theme. The weight of economic growth may increase, and growth sources and modes may adjust. - Regarding monetary policy, it aims to improve the central banking system, build a sound monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macroprudential governance system. The next stage of building the macroprudential governance framework focuses on four areas [22][23]. - The short - term impact on the bond market is limited. In November and December, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias, influenced by monetary policy, year - end institutional allocations, and fund fee reform [24]. 3.4 Commodities - On the supply side, the Proposals call for optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, which will support commodity prices through supply elasticity management in different sectors such as ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26]. - On the demand side, policies support economic growth and set a floor for commodity demand, but the impact varies by sector. New energy - related metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium will see clear demand growth, while other commodities face different challenges and opportunities [27]. - The commodities market is entering a phase of structural divergence. Short - term policy expectations may boost sentiment, but long - term trends depend on fundamentals [28]. 3.5 Energy transition and Carbon Neutrality - Energy: The Proposals emphasize accelerating new energy system construction, promoting green transformation, and increasing new energy supply. They also call for developing new energy storage and strengthening power grid construction, which may increase demand for certain metals. For fossil energy, consumption is expected to peak, and the consumption structure may change [30]. - Carbon market: The Proposals mention expanding the carbon market and developing a voluntary emission reduction market. In the short term, carbon prices are affected by quota carry - over policies; in the long term, they may fluctuate upward due to tightened quota allocations and market expansion [31]. 3.6 Technological Self - Reliance and Advanced Manufacturing - The 15th Five - Year Plan Proposals elevate scientific and technological self - reliance to the second main objective. It emphasizes advanced manufacturing and breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies. Investment in key areas like integrated circuits is expected to maintain rapid growth, driving related material demand [33].

Core Insights - The derivative protocol Tradoor announced a trading volume exceeding $10 billion in the past 7 days [1] - The token TRADOOR has seen a price increase of 41.9% over the past week, currently priced at $2.89, with a market capitalization of $1.73 billion [1] - Tradoor has previously completed a $3.2 million funding round led by Kenetic Capital and TON Ventures, and has been listed on Binance Alpha [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in its business model and lack of major film and series releases [3][4]. Group 1: Revenue Forecast - The projected revenue for the first half of 2025 is 3.12 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [3]. - Online reading business revenue is expected to remain stable at 1.95 billion RMB, showing little change year-on-year [3]. - Revenue from copyright operations and other businesses is anticipated to drop to 1.17 billion RMB, a decline of 48% year-on-year, largely due to the absence of major releases from New Classics Media and changes in revenue recognition for short drama collaborations [3]. Group 2: Profit Expectations - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be 480 million RMB, with the company's own profit expected to be around 500 million RMB, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year [3]. - New Classics Media is projected to incur a loss of approximately 20 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Online Reading Business - The online reading business is stable, with the integration of AI tools to enhance content creation efficiency [4]. - The international portal, WebNovel, has launched 6,800 Chinese translated works, with AI translations accounting for 3,200 of these, representing 47% of the total [4]. Group 4: Short Dramas and Derivative Products - New Classics Media has no major series released in the first half of 2025, but several anticipated series are set to launch in the second half, including "Solo Woman" and "Celebrating the Year 3" [5]. - The gaming sector has seen success with the new game "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World," which generated an estimated revenue of 11.97 million RMB on iOS within a week of its launch [5][6]. - The company’s derivative products achieved a gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding 500 million RMB in 2024, with card products alone surpassing 200 million RMB [5].

Core Viewpoint - The development of the Shanghai International Financial Center is closely linked to the growth of the derivatives market, which plays a crucial role in enhancing China's financial system's internationalization and security [1]. Group 1: Derivatives Trading as a Core Driver - Derivatives trading is a key pillar of international financial centers, with Shanghai's futures exchange achieving a trading volume of 6 billion contracts in 2024, accounting for 18% of global commodity derivatives trading [2]. - The average daily trading volume of Shanghai crude oil futures exceeded 500,000 contracts, significantly enhancing Shanghai's pricing influence in the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - The "Shanghai Gold" benchmark has become the second-largest global gold pricing benchmark, with a participation rate of 25% [2]. - In 2024, the trading volume of interest rate swaps in the Shanghai interbank market reached 45 trillion yuan, effectively helping enterprises manage interest rate volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Development Environment for the Derivatives Market - The construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center provides a favorable environment for the derivatives market, with a 40% year-on-year increase in derivatives trading volume in the free trade zone in 2024 [3]. - The Shanghai Clearing House has achieved T+0 cross-border clearing for RMB derivatives, improving efficiency by 50% [3]. - Tax incentives have attracted international asset management institutions, and talent programs have led to a net inflow of over 10,000 professionals in derivatives [3]. Group 3: Interaction Between RMB Internationalization and Derivatives Development - The linkage between offshore and onshore derivatives markets resulted in a cross-border RMB derivatives trading volume of 12 trillion yuan in 2024, making RMB the fifth-largest currency for derivatives trading globally [4]. - The integration of commodity derivatives with industrial finance has created an ecosystem that significantly reduces costs for enterprises [4]. - The green finance derivatives market is thriving, with the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange aiming for a scale of over 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning for Financial Security and International Influence - The derivatives market plays a dual role in financial security and the construction of international financial centers, with enterprises using derivatives to hedge against cost fluctuations [5]. - Innovations in dynamic margin management have enhanced risk prevention levels [5]. - The increase in derivatives trading volume can significantly enhance the global competitiveness of financial centers, with Shanghai aiming to improve its global financial center ranking through derivatives innovation [5]. Group 5: Existing Gaps and Future Directions - Compared to mature international markets like New York and London, China's derivatives market has differences in regulatory frameworks, regulatory focus, cross-border regulation, and margin financing for derivatives trading [6]. - The need for continuous exploration in regulatory coordination and market openness is emphasized to promote the collaborative development of the derivatives market and the Shanghai International Financial Center [6]. Group 6: Four Dimensions to Promote the Internationalization of the Derivatives Market - There is a need to deepen cross-border regulatory cooperation while maintaining risk prevention, gradually transitioning to a mixed regulatory framework to enhance market efficiency and international competitiveness [12]. - Prioritizing the development of entity-related derivatives and establishing innovation laboratories to ensure new products are adequately tested before market introduction [13]. - Accelerating the internationalization of infrastructure, with the Shanghai Clearing House aiming to connect with international standards and achieve real-time connections with Euroclear by 2027 [14]. - Focusing on the development of derivatives tools that meet enterprise risk hedging needs and encouraging international investor participation to enhance market internationalization [16].

Core Viewpoint - The derivatives market is acting as a risk buffer amid significant market volatility caused by geopolitical events, with record trading growth helping entities manage risks effectively [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The derivatives market is experiencing unprecedented trading growth, driven by increasing demand for risk management tools despite geopolitical tensions [3][4]. - Companies globally are utilizing the derivatives market to hedge against various risks, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The importance of strong yet non-redundant regulatory frameworks is emphasized, with ongoing communication and collaboration with global regulatory bodies to ensure market resilience while promoting growth and innovation [4][6]. - The establishment of a derivatives market standards research institute aims to develop and promote best practices globally, showing proactive steps towards regulatory alignment [3][4]. Group 3: China's Role in the Global Derivatives Market - China's derivatives market is increasingly open, allowing both domestic and international participants to hedge risks effectively, with significant developments in commodity derivatives [5][6]. - The experience of China in client fund protection mechanisms is providing valuable insights for global regulatory practices, highlighting the importance of international cooperation [6]. Group 4: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - AI is expected to enhance efficiency in algorithmic trading, allowing for quicker implementation of innovative trading strategies [7]. - The potential of AI in market regulation is significant, particularly in real-time monitoring and risk identification, which can help detect market manipulation and other risks [7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Beta factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the overall market returns, indicating its systematic risk[29] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and the market returns - Divide this covariance by the variance of the market returns - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the return of the stock and $R_m$ is the return of the market[29] - **Evaluation**: The Beta factor is a widely used measure of risk, indicating how much a stock's price is expected to move relative to the market[29] 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Liquidity factor assesses the ease with which a stock can be traded without affecting its price, reflecting the market's depth and breadth[29] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily trading volume - Calculate the bid-ask spread - Combine these metrics to form a composite liquidity score - Formula: $ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Average Daily Volume}}{\text{Bid-Ask Spread}} $[29] - **Evaluation**: The Liquidity factor is crucial for understanding the trading costs and potential price impact of large trades[29] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Profitability Quality factor evaluates the financial health and earnings quality of a company, focusing on sustainable and high-quality earnings[29] - **Construction Process**: - Analyze various financial ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - Combine these ratios into a composite score - Formula: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{ROE} + \text{ROA} + \text{Profit Margin}}{3} $[29] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying companies with strong and sustainable earnings, which are likely to perform well in the long term[29] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **IR**: 0.45[29] - **Annualized Return**: 8.5%[29] - **Volatility**: 12.3%[29] 2. Liquidity Factor - **IR**: 0.38[29] - **Annualized Return**: 7.8%[29] - **Volatility**: 11.5%[29] 3. Profitability Quality Factor - **IR**: 0.52[29] - **Annualized Return**: 9.2%[29] - **Volatility**: 10.8%[29] Additional Factors and Their Performance 1. Factor Name: Skewness Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Skewness factor measures the asymmetry of the return distribution, indicating the potential for extreme positive or negative returns[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the third moment of the return distribution - Normalize by the cube of the standard deviation - Formula: $ \text{Skewness} = \frac{E[(R - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $R$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean return, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding the tail risks and potential for extreme outcomes in the return distribution[33] 2. Factor Name: Position Change Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Position Change factor tracks changes in the holdings of large institutional investors, indicating their sentiment and market positioning[33] - **Construction Process**: - Monitor the quarterly filings of institutional investors - Calculate the net change in positions for each stock - Formula: $ \text{Position Change} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Holdings} - \text{Previous Quarter Holdings}}{\text{Previous Quarter Holdings}} $[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the buying and selling activities of major market players, which can influence stock prices[33] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Skewness Factor - **IR**: 0.42[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.1%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.9%[33] 2. Position Change Factor - **IR**: 0.47[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.7%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.2%[33]

Core Insights - The Chinese entertainment industry has recently experienced unexpected successes with "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha: The Devil's Child," both achieving record-breaking sales and box office figures, indicating a potential reevaluation of the industry's market space and content quality [2][3]. Industry Overview - Historically, the Chinese entertainment industry has been undervalued, with its GDP contribution remaining below 5% as of 2023, compared to 31% in the U.S. in 2017, suggesting significant growth potential [3]. - The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha 2" may prompt a reassessment of the market's capacity for high-quality content, indicating that the ceiling for premium content is far from being reached [3]. Company Analysis: Yu Wen Group - Yu Wen Group reported a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan for 2024, marking a three-year high, with a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan, highlighting its strong performance in the entertainment sector [4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive approach to IP (Intellectual Property) development, leveraging its extensive experience in content production to create a full industry chain advantage [5][12]. IP Development Strategy - Yu Wen has successfully transitioned from merely licensing IP to actively producing content, exemplified by the success of "Qing Yu Nian," which has set multiple viewership records [14]. - The company has established a systematic approach to IP development, focusing on series and multi-category expansions, which enhances the longevity and commercial viability of its IP [19][29]. Financial Performance - Yu Wen's revenue for 2024 increased by 15.8%, with its copyright operation revenue rising by 34.2% to 4 billion yuan, reflecting the effectiveness of its content strategy [8][10]. - The company's IP derivative business also saw rapid growth, with a GMV exceeding 500 million yuan, indicating a successful expansion into merchandise and related products [10][21]. Market Trends - The entertainment industry is increasingly focused on IP as a means to mitigate the uncertainty of blockbuster content, with a growing emphasis on creating reliable and repeatable success through IP management [24]. - The global derivative market is valued at 300 billion USD, presenting a significant opportunity for Yu Wen as it continues to develop its IP commercialization strategy [23]. Conclusion - The recent successes of "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha 2" underscore the demand for quality content in the Chinese market, while Yu Wen Group's strategic advancements in IP development position it as a leader in the industry, suggesting a bright future for both the company and the broader entertainment sector [33][34].