Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in its business model and lack of major film and series releases [3][4]. Group 1: Revenue Forecast - The projected revenue for the first half of 2025 is 3.12 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [3]. - Online reading business revenue is expected to remain stable at 1.95 billion RMB, showing little change year-on-year [3]. - Revenue from copyright operations and other businesses is anticipated to drop to 1.17 billion RMB, a decline of 48% year-on-year, largely due to the absence of major releases from New Classics Media and changes in revenue recognition for short drama collaborations [3]. Group 2: Profit Expectations - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be 480 million RMB, with the company's own profit expected to be around 500 million RMB, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year [3]. - New Classics Media is projected to incur a loss of approximately 20 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Online Reading Business - The online reading business is stable, with the integration of AI tools to enhance content creation efficiency [4]. - The international portal, WebNovel, has launched 6,800 Chinese translated works, with AI translations accounting for 3,200 of these, representing 47% of the total [4]. Group 4: Short Dramas and Derivative Products - New Classics Media has no major series released in the first half of 2025, but several anticipated series are set to launch in the second half, including "Solo Woman" and "Celebrating the Year 3" [5]. - The gaming sector has seen success with the new game "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World," which generated an estimated revenue of 11.97 million RMB on iOS within a week of its launch [5][6]. - The company’s derivative products achieved a gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding 500 million RMB in 2024, with card products alone surpassing 200 million RMB [5].

沃尔特·卢肯：正如你提到的，由于一系列地缘政治事件，目前市场极其动荡。不过，在这种波动性 中，值得关注的一点是，衍生品市场在系统中起到了风险缓冲器的作用。因此，我们在全球市场上看到 了创纪录的交易增长，这帮助人们更好地管理风险。全球各地的企业都在使用衍生品市场来对冲这些风 险。 尽管世界上存在许多地缘政治紧张局势和冲突，衍生品市场确实在对冲风险方面发挥了重要作用。对衍 生品行业来说，这是一个积极的信号：市场持续增长，这并不是因为地缘政治事件本身，而是因为市场 对风险管理工具的需求越来越强。因此，我们对未来的发展感到非常振奋。 卢肯说，由于一系列地缘政治事件，目前市场极其动荡。不过，在这种波动性中，值得关注的一点是， 衍生品市场在系统中起到了风险缓冲器的作用。 全球经济持续面临不确定性，市场波动性显著上升。国际期货业协会（FIA）主席兼首席执行官沃尔特· 卢肯（Walter Lukken）近期在接受第一财经独家专访时表示，衍生品市场正在成为吸收全球风险的"减 震器"，并强调在加强监管协调的同时，应避免重复监管，维护市场韧性与开放。 沃尔特·卢肯亦高度评价中国衍生品市场的开放进程，认为中国在客户资金保护机制等方面 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Beta factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the overall market returns, indicating its systematic risk[29] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and the market returns - Divide this covariance by the variance of the market returns - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the return of the stock and $R_m$ is the return of the market[29] - **Evaluation**: The Beta factor is a widely used measure of risk, indicating how much a stock's price is expected to move relative to the market[29] 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Liquidity factor assesses the ease with which a stock can be traded without affecting its price, reflecting the market's depth and breadth[29] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily trading volume - Calculate the bid-ask spread - Combine these metrics to form a composite liquidity score - Formula: $ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Average Daily Volume}}{\text{Bid-Ask Spread}} $[29] - **Evaluation**: The Liquidity factor is crucial for understanding the trading costs and potential price impact of large trades[29] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Profitability Quality factor evaluates the financial health and earnings quality of a company, focusing on sustainable and high-quality earnings[29] - **Construction Process**: - Analyze various financial ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - Combine these ratios into a composite score - Formula: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{ROE} + \text{ROA} + \text{Profit Margin}}{3} $[29] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying companies with strong and sustainable earnings, which are likely to perform well in the long term[29] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **IR**: 0.45[29] - **Annualized Return**: 8.5%[29] - **Volatility**: 12.3%[29] 2. Liquidity Factor - **IR**: 0.38[29] - **Annualized Return**: 7.8%[29] - **Volatility**: 11.5%[29] 3. Profitability Quality Factor - **IR**: 0.52[29] - **Annualized Return**: 9.2%[29] - **Volatility**: 10.8%[29] Additional Factors and Their Performance 1. Factor Name: Skewness Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Skewness factor measures the asymmetry of the return distribution, indicating the potential for extreme positive or negative returns[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the third moment of the return distribution - Normalize by the cube of the standard deviation - Formula: $ \text{Skewness} = \frac{E[(R - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $R$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean return, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding the tail risks and potential for extreme outcomes in the return distribution[33] 2. Factor Name: Position Change Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Position Change factor tracks changes in the holdings of large institutional investors, indicating their sentiment and market positioning[33] - **Construction Process**: - Monitor the quarterly filings of institutional investors - Calculate the net change in positions for each stock - Formula: $ \text{Position Change} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Holdings} - \text{Previous Quarter Holdings}}{\text{Previous Quarter Holdings}} $[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the buying and selling activities of major market players, which can influence stock prices[33] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Skewness Factor - **IR**: 0.42[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.1%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.9%[33] 2. Position Change Factor - **IR**: 0.47[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.7%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.2%[33]

Core Insights - The Chinese entertainment industry has recently experienced unexpected successes with "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha: The Devil's Child," both achieving record-breaking sales and box office figures, indicating a potential reevaluation of the industry's market space and content quality [2][3]. Industry Overview - Historically, the Chinese entertainment industry has been undervalued, with its GDP contribution remaining below 5% as of 2023, compared to 31% in the U.S. in 2017, suggesting significant growth potential [3]. - The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha 2" may prompt a reassessment of the market's capacity for high-quality content, indicating that the ceiling for premium content is far from being reached [3]. Company Analysis: Yu Wen Group - Yu Wen Group reported a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan for 2024, marking a three-year high, with a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan, highlighting its strong performance in the entertainment sector [4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive approach to IP (Intellectual Property) development, leveraging its extensive experience in content production to create a full industry chain advantage [5][12]. IP Development Strategy - Yu Wen has successfully transitioned from merely licensing IP to actively producing content, exemplified by the success of "Qing Yu Nian," which has set multiple viewership records [14]. - The company has established a systematic approach to IP development, focusing on series and multi-category expansions, which enhances the longevity and commercial viability of its IP [19][29]. Financial Performance - Yu Wen's revenue for 2024 increased by 15.8%, with its copyright operation revenue rising by 34.2% to 4 billion yuan, reflecting the effectiveness of its content strategy [8][10]. - The company's IP derivative business also saw rapid growth, with a GMV exceeding 500 million yuan, indicating a successful expansion into merchandise and related products [10][21]. Market Trends - The entertainment industry is increasingly focused on IP as a means to mitigate the uncertainty of blockbuster content, with a growing emphasis on creating reliable and repeatable success through IP management [24]. - The global derivative market is valued at 300 billion USD, presenting a significant opportunity for Yu Wen as it continues to develop its IP commercialization strategy [23]. Conclusion - The recent successes of "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha 2" underscore the demand for quality content in the Chinese market, while Yu Wen Group's strategic advancements in IP development position it as a leader in the industry, suggesting a bright future for both the company and the broader entertainment sector [33][34].

Summary of the Conference Call for阅文集团 Company Overview - **Company**: 阅文集团 (Yuewen Group) - **Industry**: Online literature and IP (Intellectual Property) management Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Strategy - **Cost Reduction and Efficiency**: The company has offset negative impacts from channel optimization through cost reduction and operational optimization strategies, focusing on high-quality content incubation and strengthening the author ecosystem, ensuring long-term efficient IP operation, which signals positive stock trading prospects [2][3] - **Revenue Growth**: In 2024, the online reading business saw a slight revenue increase of approximately 2% to 3%, attributed to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency measures [3] IP Licensing and Media Expansion - **Significant Growth in IP Licensing**: In 2024, the company experienced notable growth in IP licensing, film, and animation sectors, with over half of the top 30 TV dramas adapted from Yuewen's IP [2][4] - **Successful Adaptations**: Major adaptations include popular dramas such as "墨雨云间" and "九重紫," with New Classics Media contributing hit productions like "庆余年第二季" [5] Derivative Products and Innovations - **Breakthrough in Derivative Products**: The company achieved a GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) of 500 million yuan in 2024, with card games contributing 200 million yuan, showcasing innovative collaborations with TV dramas [2][6] - **Short Drama Development**: The short drama segment has rapidly developed, with over 100 short dramas launched, and the project "好运甜妻" generating over 70 million yuan in revenue within a week [2][7] Market Expansion and New Ventures - **Focus on Trendy Toys Market**: The company plans to deepen its involvement in the trendy toy market by leveraging its distribution network to assist quality teams in product launches and exploring new categories like precious metal products and immersive offline venues [2][9] - **International Market Strategy**: The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in the European and American markets, with a 300% revenue increase in non-English works on the Webnovel platform [22][23] Operational Insights - **AI Translation Tools**: The use of AI translation tools has significantly boosted the quality and quantity of translated works, with 40% of the top 100 bestsellers being AI-translated, indicating strong overseas market potential [4][22] - **Physical Store Expansion**: The company opened approximately eight physical stores in 2024, with plans to increase to over ten in 2025, focusing on prime locations in major cities [19][21] Strategic Focus Areas - **Full Industry Chain Layout**: The company has established a comprehensive strategy covering IP design, product development, and sales channels, emphasizing high-value segments and outsourcing production to enhance efficiency [20][13] - **Balance Between Self-Development and Licensing**: The company maintains a flexible approach to self-development and licensing, choosing partners based on their capabilities to maximize the potential of each IP [16][18] Future Outlook - **Revenue and Profit Trends**: The domestic paid reading market is expected to remain stable in terms of revenue and user numbers, with potential for slight profit improvements through enhanced product channel ROI [28] - **Management's Commitment**: The management is highly focused on the derivative products sector, anticipating significant growth in the coming years [20] Additional Important Insights - **Cultural Events and Brand Building**: The company has engaged in various cultural events, such as IP festivals and collaborations with international institutions, to enhance brand recognition and expand its influence globally [24][22] - **Market Trends and Consumer Insights**: The team’s deep understanding of market trends and consumer preferences has enabled the company to make informed decisions regarding product offerings and market strategies [11][10]